Nevin Manimala

Ecol Appl. 2021 Nov 20:e02500. doi: 10.1002/eap.2500. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Near-term iterative forecasting is a powerful tool for ecological decision support and has the potential to transform our understanding of ecological predictability. However, to this point, there has been no cross-ecosystem analysis of near-term ecological forecasts, making it difficult to synthesize diverse research efforts and prioritize future developments for this emerging field. In this study, we analyzed 178 near-term (≤10-year forecast horizon) ecological forecasting papers to understand the development and current state of near-term ecological forecasting literature and compare forecast accuracy across scales and variables. Our results indicate that near-term ecological forecasting is widespread and growing: forecasts have been produced for sites on all seven continents and the rate of forecast publication is increasing over time. As forecast production has accelerated, a number of best practices have been proposed and application of these best practices is increasing. In particular, data publication, forecast archiving, and workflow automation have all increased significantly over time. However, adoption of proposed best practices remains low overall: for example, despite the fact that uncertainty is often cited as an essential component of an ecological forecast, only 45% of papers included uncertainty in their forecast outputs. As the use of these proposed best practices increases, near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to make significant contributions to our understanding of forecastability across scales and variables. In this study, we found that forecastability (defined here as realized forecast accuracy) decreased in predictable patterns over 1-7 day forecast horizons. Variables that were closely related (i.e., chlorophyll and phytoplankton) displayed very similar trends in forecastability, while more distantly related variables (i.e., pollen and evapotranspiration) exhibited significantly different patterns. Increasing use of proposed best practices in ecological forecasting will allow us to examine the forecastability of additional variables and timescales in the future, providing a robust analysis of the fundamental predictability of ecological variables.

PMID:34800082 | DOI:10.1002/eap.2500

Thorac Cancer. 2021 Nov 20. doi: 10.1111/1759-7714.14247. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Studies on the clinical implication of hospital selection for patients with lung cancer are few. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze 2005-2016 data from the Korean national database to assess annual trends of lung cancer surgery and clinical outcomes according to hospital selection.

METHODS: Data of 212 554 patients with lung cancer who underwent upfront surgery were screened. Trends according to sex, age, residence, and income were examined. Descriptive statistics were performed, and p_trend values were estimated. The association between survival and hospital selection was assessed using the log-rank test. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was also performed.

RESULTS: A total of 49 021 patients were included in this study. Surgery was prevalent among men, patients aged 61-75 years, capital area residents, and high-income patients. However, with the increasing rate of surgery among women, patients aged ≥76 years, city residents, and middle-income patients, the current distribution of lung cancer surgery could change. The rate of lobectomy among these groups increased. All patients, except those in capital areas, preferred a hospital outside their area of residence (HOR); the number of patients with this tendency also increased. However, this trend was not observed among low-income patients and those aged ≥76 years. There were significant differences in survival according to hospital selection.

CONCLUSIONS: The trend of lung cancer surgery is changing. The current medical system is effective in providing lobectomy for patients including women, aged ≥76 years, city residents, and middle-income. Increasing tendency to choose an HOR requires further study.

PMID:34800078 | DOI:10.1111/1759-7714.14247

Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf. 2021 Nov 19. doi: 10.1002/pds.5386. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Validating outcome measures is a prerequisite for using administrative databases for comparative effectiveness research. Although the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination database is widely used in surgical studies, the outcome measure for postsurgical infection has not been validated. We developed a model to identify postsurgical infections using the routinely-collected Diagnosis Procedure Combination data.

METHODS: We retrospectively identified inpatients who underwent surgery for gastric, colorectal, or liver cancer between April 2016 and March 2018 at four hospitals. Chart reviews were conducted to identify postsurgical infections. We used bootstrap analysis with backwards variable elimination to select independent variables from routinely-collected diagnosis and procedure data. Selected variables were used to create a score predicting the chart review-identified infections, and the performance of the score was tested.

RESULTS: Among the 756 eligible patients, 102 patients (13%) had postoperative infections. Three variables were identified as predictors: diagnosis of infectious disease recorded as a complication arising after admission, addition of an intravenous antibiotic, and bacterial microscopy or culture. The prediction model had a C-statistic of 0.891 and pseudo-R² of 0.380. A cut-off of 1 point of the score showed a sensitivity of 92% and specificity of 71%, and a cut-off of 2 points showed a sensitivity of 77% and specificity of 91%.

CONCLUSIONS: Our model using routinely-collected administrative data accurately identified postoperative infections. Further external validation would lead to the application of the model for research using administrative databases. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID:34800063 | DOI:10.1002/pds.5386

Int J Cancer. 2021 Nov 20. doi: 10.1002/ijc.33880. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Adolescents and young adults (AYAs, 15-39 years) are the largest uninsured population in the Unites States, increasing the likelihood of late-stage cancer diagnosis and poor survival. We evaluated the associations between the Affordable Care Act (ACA), insurance coverage, stage at diagnosis, and survival among AYAs with lymphoma. We used data from the California Cancer Registry linked to Medicaid enrollment files on AYAs diagnosed with a primary non-Hodgkin (NHL; n=5,959) or Hodgkin (HL; n=5,378) lymphoma pre-ACA and in the early and full ACA eras. Health insurance was categorized as continuous Medicaid, discontinuous Medicaid, Medicaid enrollment at diagnosis/uninsurance, other public, and private. We used multivariable regression models for statistical analyses. The proportion of AYAs uninsured/Medicaid enrolled at diagnosis decreased from 13.4% pre-ACA to 9.7% with full ACA implementation, while continuous Medicaid increased from 9.3% to 29.6% during this time (p<0.001). After full ACA, AYAs with NHL were less likely to be diagnosed with stage IV disease (aOR=0.84, 95% CI 0.73-0.97). AYAs with lymphoma were more likely to receive care at National Cancer Institute-Designated Cancer Centers (aOR=1.42, 95% CI 1.28-1.57) and had lower likelihood of death (aHR=0.54, 95% CI 0.46-0.63) after full ACA. However, AYAs from the lowest socioeconomic neighborhoods, racial/ethnic minority groups, and those with Medicaid, continued to experience worse survival. In summary, AYAs with lymphomas experienced increased access to healthcare and better clinical outcomes following Medicaid expansion under the ACA. Yet, socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities remain, calling for additional efforts to decrease health inequities among underserved AYAs with lymphoma. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID:34800045 | DOI:10.1002/ijc.33880

Int Endod J. 2021 Nov 20. doi: 10.1111/iej.13667. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIM: To examine the efficacy rate of four anaesthetic protocols in mandibular first molars with symptomatic irreversible pulpitis (SIP).

METHODOLOGY: One-hundred-sixty patients with a SIP diagnosis were included in this randomized clinical trial. Patients were randomly allocated into 4 treatment groups (N=40) according to the administered technique: Group 1 (IANB): standard inferior alveolar nerve block (IANB) injection; Group 2 (IANB + IO): standard IANB followed by a supplemental intraosseous infusion (IO) injection; Group 3 (IANB + PDL): standard IANB followed by a supplemental periodontal ligament (PDL) injection; Group 4 (IANB + BI): standard IANB followed by a supplemental buccal infiltration. Patients rated pain intensity using a verbal rating scale (VRS) when root canal treatment procedure was initiated, i.e. during caries removal, access preparation, and pulpectomy. Heart rate changes were recorded before, during and after each injection. The anaesthetic efficacy rates were analyzed using chi-square test, age differences using One Way ANOVA, gender differences using Fischer Exact test whilst heart rate changes were analyzed using Kruskal Wallis test. Statistical significances were set at P < 0.05 level.

RESULTS: All the included patients were analysed. No differences in the efficacy rate were found in relation to the age or gender of the participants amongst the study groups (P >0.05). IANB+IO injections had a significantly higher efficacy rate (92.5%) when compared to other techniques (p<0.05), followed by IANB+PDL injections (72.5%), IANB+BI injections (65.0%), with no significant differences between the IANB+PDL or IANB+BI injections (p>0.05). IANB injection alone had a significantly lower rate (40%) compared to the other techniques (p<0.05). A transient but significant rise in the heart rate was recorded in 60% (24/40) of patients who received the IANB+IO injection compared to other groups (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS: IANB injection alone did not reliably permit pain-free treatment for mandibular molars with SIP. The use of an additional IO supplemental injection provided the most effective anaesthesia for patients requiring emergency root canal treatment for SIP in mandibular posterior teeth.

PMID:34800034 | DOI:10.1111/iej.13667

Pol Merkur Lekarski. 2021 Oct 22;49(293):346-351.

ABSTRACT

It is known that the violation of one or more functions of the liver, where the basic biochemical processes take place, is reflected in the functional state of many organs and systems, causing severe consequences. For the effective treatment of the hepatobiliary system diseases the drugs from fungi and plant materials are promising, the ingredients of which are close to natural metabolites, have different mechanisms of hepatoprotective action and, in general, can have a positive effect on liver function.

AIM: The aim of the research was to investigate the hepatoprotective properties of the Maitake mushrooms thick extract in the experiment on rats with paracetamol (acetaminophen)-induced hepatitis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was performed on 60 white male rats weighing 180-210 g and aged 6-6,5 months. Rats were divided into 10 groups, each of which included 6 animals. Acute hepatitis was simulated by acetaminophen intragastrically administering at a dose of 1250 mg/ kg of body weight 1 time per day as a suspension in 2% starch gel solution for 2 days. Correction of the toxic lesions was performed with a thick extract of Maitake mushrooms, which was administered intragastrically 2 hours before the introduction of acetaminophen and daily after the lesion at a dose of 150 mg/kg of body weight. “Silibor” (active basis – silymarin) was chosen as a comparison drug, which was administered according to the same scheme as Maitake extract at a dose of 20 mg/kg of animal body weight. On the 3rd, 7th and 10th days from the onset of the lesion, rats were euthanized using sodium barbamyl. Liver homogenate and blood serum were tested. Blood was taken from the hearts of animals. Endogenous intoxication of animals after the introduction of corrective factors was assessed by the activity of ALT, AST, GGTP, LF and the size of the thymol sample. All changes were confirmed by parametric and nonparametric methods of statistical analysis of the results of the study.

RESULTS: The expressed cytolysis of hepatocytes, after administration to rats of toxicant, on the basis of research of the activity of aminotransferases, gamma-glutamyltranspeptidase, alkaline phosphatase and thymol sample size is proved. The results of the experiment were confirmed histologically. The introduction of a thick extract of Maitake mushrooms contributed to the normalization of the studied indicators.

CONCLUSIONS: The application of the Maitake mushrooms thick extract as a corrective factor in the simulated acetaminophen hepatitis indicates its hepato-, cytoprotective and antioxidative properties.

PMID:34800021

Pol Merkur Lekarski. 2021 Oct 22;49(293):337-340.

ABSTRACT

Allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) is a common skin disorder caused by contact with an exogenous substance that elicits a hypersensitivity response in susceptible individuals. Changing fashion trends, the process of industrialization as well as official legislations restricting the use of metals in recreational and occupational products change the epidemiological patterns in the European countries.

AIM: The aim of the study was to estimate the current prevalence of isolated and concurrent sensitization to nickel sulfate, cobalt chloride and potassium dichromate, as well as to investigate their associations with potentially predisposing epidemiological and clinical factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: 1200 patients with suspected ACD were enrolled for this study. Medical records were taken on the basis of the standardized questionnaire to collect epidemiological and clinical variables. All patients were tested with T.R.U.E. TEST Panel 1.2 and Panel 2.2, including the total of 24 allergens.

RESULTS: We observed statistically significant difference in mean age between women allergic to cobalt (41 vs 49; p<0.001) and nickel (41 vs 50; p<0.001) than among women not allergic to metals . Female gender was a significant risk factor for an allergy to nickel (OR 3.7909, CI95%: 2.4081 – 5.9677; p<0.001). Chi2 test showed that atopic dermatitis may influence the prevalence of allergic reaction to cobalt in a group of women and men, as well only among women or men – the most significant association was noted among men (OR=3.8472, CI95%: 1.1518 – 12.8503; p=0.0285). The sensitization any metal was a significant risk factor for an allergy to other metallic allergens.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study gives a valuable insight into the metal allergy prevalence in Polish population and sheds some light on the associated risk factors. The results serve to raise questions concerning the relevance of metal allergies and to highlight the need for more effective preventive measures.

PMID:34800019

Pol Merkur Lekarski. 2021 Oct 22;49(293):334-336.

ABSTRACT

In treating inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), regular physical activity (PA) and healthy behaviours play an increasingly important role.

AIM: The aim of the study was to analyse PA with motivation to undertake it, health behaviours, and level of self-esteem in individuals with IBD.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study involved 50 (mean age 39.1±11.5 years) adults with IBD hospitalised in Poznan. The control group consisted of 50 (mean age 40.7±9.1 years) healthy volunteers. The survey included sociodemographic data, Inventory of Physical Activity Objectives (IPAO), Inventory of Health Behaviours (IHB), and Rosenberg self-esteem scale. Differences between groups were calculated using the Mann-Whitney test (p<0.05).

RESULTS: Most respondents of both groups did not undertake any PA. The values of IPAO categories in a group with IBD were significantly higher compared to the control group. Also, people with IBD had a statistically more significant value of general intensity index of health behaviour and statistically higher self-esteem than a group of healthy people.

CONCLUSIONS: We found that people with IBD show a greater awareness of the impact of their health behaviour on their health when compared to control. However, the authors recorded the unsatisfactory level of motivation to undertake daily PA and practical pro-health activities. In treating these chronically ill patients, physicians should pay more attention to adequate education and motivation for regular exercise and appropriate health behaviours in everyday life.

PMID:34800018

Pol Merkur Lekarski. 2021 Oct 22;49(293):329-333.

ABSTRACT

Data concerning the influence of sex hormones on body composition in women with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is limited.

AIM: The aim of our study was to define free testosterone levels and their association with body composition, biochemical markers of nutrition in females with CKD.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: 47 women were included into the study. 13 females treated with hemodialysis formed the hemodialysis group (HD), 24 females with CKD stage IV/V (eGFR < 30 ml/min/1,73 m2) formed the predialysis group (PreD), and 10 females without kidney disease formed the control group (C). Lean tissue mass (LTM) and fat mass (Fat) were measured using bioimpedance spectroscopy. Free testosterone levels were assessed using ELISA (IBL International). Statistical analysis was performed using Statistica v 13.1.

RESULTS: The median free testosterone (fT) levels were 0.7, 0.6, 0.85 pg/ml respectively for HD, PreD and C group. The median fT did not differ significantly between the groups (p=0.24). The mean LTM was 28.5 ±5.6, 27.3 ±4.9, 30.6 ±4.3 kg, mean Fat mass was 22.7 ±8.5, 31.3 ±9.8, 31.6 ±8.5 kg for the HD, PreD and C groups respectively. Positive correlations were observed between fT and LTM (r=0.306, p=0.035) in the whole study group. A negative correlation was observed between fT and age (r=-0.284) but was on the border of statistical significance (p=0.052).

CONCLUSIONS: In women with advanced CKD, median testosterone levels did not differ significantly from those observed in women without kidney failure. Free testosterone levels were associated with the amount of muscle mass in the whole study population.

PMID:34800017

Endocrinol Diabetes Metab. 2021 Nov 19:e00310. doi: 10.1002/edm2.310. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The aims of this study were to examine presence of GAD65 autoantibodies (GAD65aab) in offspring born to women with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and controls and if more were GAD65aab-positive if diagnosed with diabetes or pre-diabetes. This EPICOM study is a prospective follow-up study focussing on pregnancies complicated by maternal T1D. The EPICOM study includes offspring (n = 278) born to mothers with pre-gestational T1D between 1993 and 1999 and matched un-exposed controls (n = 303). Age at the time of follow-up was 16.7 years (13.0-20.4 years). GAD65aab was measured using the Glutamic Acid Decarboxylase Autoantibody RIA kit from RSR^© . An Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) was performed, and abnormal glucose tolerance was defined as having either diabetes, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). GAD65aab could be measured in 561 participants. Of these, 17 (3%) were positive for GAD65aab (≥25 U/ml) with 11 (4%) offspring being born to women with T1D and 6 (2%) controls. The difference in GAD65aab status was not statistically significant (p = .2). One was diagnosed with GAD65aab-negative diabetes during the study, 18 were diagnosed with IFG, and 44 with IGT. Overall, more were GAD65aab-positive if diagnosed with abnormal glucose tolerance (p = .03). We found no association between GAD65aab status and HOMA-IR, HOMA-IS, birthweight, mode of delivery or maternal BMI prior to pregnancy. Our study found no overall difference in GAD65 status between offspring born to women with T1D and their matched controls. However, among the participants diagnosed with pre-diabetes more were GAD65-positive.

PMID:34800010 | DOI:10.1002/edm2.310