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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Evaluation of the United States COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategy

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 17;16(11):e0259700. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259700. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Anticipating an initial shortage of vaccines for COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in the United States developed priority vaccine allocations for specific demographic groups in the population. This study evaluates the performance of the CDC vaccine allocation strategy with respect to multiple potentially competing vaccination goals (minimizing mortality, cases, infections, and years of life lost (YLL)), under the same framework as the CDC allocation: four priority vaccination groups and population demographics stratified by age, comorbidities, occupation and living condition (congested or non-congested).

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a compartmental disease model that incorporates key elements of the current pandemic including age-varying susceptibility to infection, age-varying clinical fraction, an active case-count dependent social distancing level, and time-varying infectivity (accounting for the emergence of more infectious virus strains). The CDC allocation strategy is compared to all other possibly optimal allocations that stagger vaccine roll-out in up to four phases (17.5 million strategies). The CDC allocation strategy performed well in all vaccination goals but never optimally. Under the developed model, the CDC allocation deviated from the optimal allocations by small amounts, with 0.19% more deaths, 4.0% more cases, 4.07% more infections, and 0.97% higher YLL, than the respective optimal strategies. The CDC decision to not prioritize the vaccination of individuals under the age of 16 was optimal, as was the prioritization of health-care workers and other essential workers over non-essential workers. Finally, a higher prioritization of individuals with comorbidities in all age groups improved outcomes compared to the CDC allocation.

CONCLUSION: The developed approach can be used to inform the design of future vaccine allocation strategies in the United States, or adapted for use by other countries seeking to optimize the effectiveness of their vaccine allocation strategies.

PMID:34788345 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0259700

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

School reopening and risks accelerating the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 17;16(11):e0260189. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260189. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: One of the most recent concerns of this pandemic regards the role of schools reopening in disease transmission, as well as the impact of keeping schools closed. While school reopening seems critical for the education and mental health of children, adolescents, and adults, so far the literature has not systematically reached a consensus whether to recommend the return to schools in a way that would be safe for students and staff.

OBJECTIVE: To synthesize and critically evaluate the scientific evidence on the potential risk of accelerating the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic among children, adolescents, young adults, and adults with school reopening.

METHODS: This systematic review and meta-analysis protocol was elaborated following the PRISMA-P. We will include all observational study designs, which report on the potential risk of accelerating the COVID-2019 pandemic with school reopening. Electronic databases included were MEDLINE/PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Web of Science, SCOPUS and CNKI. Additional sources will be also retrieved, including Clinical trials.gov-NIH, The British Library, Pro Quest Dissertations Database, Public Health Gray Literature Sources and Health Evidence, Google Scholar, and pre-prints [medRXiv]. No restriction to language or date will be used as search strategy. In an independently manner, two investigators will select studies, perform data extraction, as well as perform a critical appraisal of the risk of bias and overall quality of the selected observational studies, based on their designs. The heterogeneity among the studies will be assessed using the I2 statistic test. According to the results of this test, we will verify whether a meta-analysis is feasible. If feasibility is confirmed, a random-effect model analysis will be carried out. For data analysis, the calculation of the pooled effect estimates will consider a 95% CI and alpha will be set in 0.05 using the R statistical software, v.4.0.4. In addition, we will rate the certainty of evidence based on Cochrane methods and in accordance with the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE).

EXPECTED RESULTS: This systematic review and meta-analysis will provide better insights into safety in the return to school in the context of the COVID-2019 pandemic, at a time when vaccination advances unevenly in several countries around the world. Hence, consistent data and robust evidence will be provided to help decision-makers and stakeholders in the current pandemic scenario.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021265283; https://clinicaltrials.gov.

PMID:34788344 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0260189

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Relationships between core self-evaluation, leader empowering behavior, and job security among Jordan University Hospital nurses

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 17;16(11):e0260064. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260064. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Nurses are facing real stressors due to patients’ needs and leaders’ demands. The aim of this study is to explore the perceived level of core self-evaluation (CSE), leader empowering behavior (LEB), and job security among Jordan University Hospital nurses in Amman, the capital of Jordan. Furthermore, it investigates the relationship between the selected variables. Differences of gender, educational level, experience, and site of work are also examined with job security. Moreover, it evaluates the contribution of CSE, LEB, gender, educational level, experience, and site of work in predicting job security among Jordan University Hospital nurses. A descriptive cross-sectional design was adopted for this study. A convenience sample of 214 nurses from Jordan University Hospital was completed the CSE scale, LEB scale, and job security scale. Descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient, t-test, one-way analysis of variance, and stepwise regression were used to analyze the results. The results indicate that job security is found to be at high level, whereas LEB and CSE are found to be at moderate levels among nurses. Significant positive relationships are found between CSE, LEB, and job security. Male nurses and medical/surgical floors reported higher levels of job security than female nurses and intensive care units. Finally, the results show that LEB and gender are significant predictors of job security among nurses. We suggest that managers of nurses should apply leadership behaviors in order to increase their job security and career empowerment.

PMID:34788327 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0260064

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Fellowship program directors and trainees across the United States find parental leave policies to be inconsistent, inaccessible, and inadequate

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 17;16(11):e0260057. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260057. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Determine the consistency, accessibility, and adequacy of parental leave policies for adult and pediatric medicine fellowship programs.

METHODS: We administered a 40-question survey to fellowship program directors (PDs) and trainees in adult and pediatric cardiology, hematology/oncology, gastroenterology, and pulmonology/critical care fellowship programs in the United States. We used Chi-square tests to compare proportions for categorical variables and t-tests to compare means for continuous variables.

RESULTS: A total of 190 PDs from 500 programs (38.0%) and 236 trainees from 142 programs (28.4%) responded. Most respondents did not believe that parental leave policies were accessible publicly (322/426; 75.6%), on password-protected intranet (343/426; 80.5%), or upon request (240/426; 56.3%). The PDs and trainees broadly felt that parental leave for fellows should be 5-10 weeks (156/426; 36.6%) or 11-15 weeks (165/426; 38.7%). A majority of PDs felt that there was no increased burden upon other fellows (122/190; 64.2%) or change in overall well-being (110/190; 57.9%). When asked about the biggest barrier to parental leave support, most PDs noted time constrains of fellowship (101/190; 53.1%) and the limited number of fellows (43/190; 22.6%). Trainees similarly selected the time constraints of training (88/236; 37.3%), but nearly one-fifth chose the culture in medicine (44/236; 18.6%). There were no statistically significant differences in answers based on the respondents’ sex, specialty, or subspecialty.

DISCUSSION: Parental leave policies are broadly in place, but did not feel these were readily accessible, standardized, or of optimum length. PDs and trainees noted several barriers that undermine support for better parental leave policies, including time constraints of fellowship, the limited number of fellows for coverage, and workplace culture. Standardization of parental leave policies is advisable to allow trainees to pursue fellowship training and care for their newborns without undermining their educational experiences.

PMID:34788326 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0260057

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Magnitude of client satisfaction and its associated factors with outpatient pharmacy service at Dubti General Hospital, Afar, North East Ethiopia: A cross sectional study

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 17;16(11):e0260104. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260104. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: In Ethiopia the pharmacy service has had several gaps among these were low patient satisfaction, and poor availability of essential pharmaceuticals. In addition, previous studies showed variation in magnitude of client satisfaction, and there is no previous study in the study area. Therefore, the aim of the study was to determine client satisfaction with outpatient pharmacy service and associated factors among adult clients at Dubti General Hospital in Afar, Ethiopia.

METHODS: A hospital based cross sectional study design was employed from February 1 to March 30, 2020 at Dubti General Hospital. Participants were selected by systematic random sampling method. Bivariate and multivariate binary logistic regression was computed to assess statistical association between the outcome variable, and independent variables. AOR with 95% CI were used to show statistical Significance at P <0.05.

RESULTS: The overall satisfaction towards outpatient pharmacy service was 165(40.5%). Regarding associated factors, service payment insured through their workplace was positively associated with satisfaction (AOR = 3.178, 95% CI: 1.294-7.80) where as availability of some medications (AOR = 0.393, 95% CI: 0.208-0.741), unfair medication cost (AOR = 0.613, 95% CI: 0.607-0.910), and lack of organized pharmacy work flow (AOR = 0.105, 95% CI: 0.049-0.221) were negatively associated with clients’ satisfaction.

CONCLUSION: The clients’ satisfaction in this study is low that warrants immediate corrective measures. Corrective measures should be taken based on identified gaps such as improving drug availability, pharmacy work flow, and cost of medications.

PMID:34788317 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0260104

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The effects of quality of evidence communication on perception of public health information about COVID-19: Two randomised controlled trials

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 17;16(11):e0259048. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259048. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The quality of evidence about the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical health interventions is often low, but little is known about the effects of communicating indications of evidence quality to the public.

METHODS: In two blinded, randomised, controlled, online experiments, US participants (total n = 2140) were shown one of several versions of an infographic illustrating the effectiveness of eye protection in reducing COVID-19 transmission. Their trust in the information, understanding, feelings of effectiveness of eye protection, and the likelihood of them adopting it were measured.

FINDINGS: Compared to those given no quality cues, participants who were told the quality of the evidence on eye protection was ‘low’, rated the evidence less trustworthy (p = .001, d = 0.25), and rated it as subjectively less effective (p = .018, d = 0.19). The same effects emerged compared to those who were told the quality of the evidence was ‘high’, and in one of the two studies, those shown ‘low’ quality of evidence said they were less likely to use eye protection (p = .005, d = 0.18). Participants who were told the quality of the evidence was ‘high’ showed no statistically significant differences on these measures compared to those given no information about evidence quality.

CONCLUSIONS: Without quality of evidence cues, participants responded to the evidence about the public health intervention as if it was high quality and this affected their subjective perceptions of its efficacy and trust in the provided information. This raises the ethical dilemma of weighing the importance of transparently stating when the evidence base is actually low quality against evidence that providing such information can decrease trust, perception of intervention efficacy, and likelihood of adopting it.

PMID:34788299 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0259048

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A review of the effectiveness of operational curtailment for reducing bat fatalities at terrestrial wind farms in North America

PLoS One. 2021 Nov 17;16(11):e0256382. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256382. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Curtailment of turbine operations during low wind conditions has become an operational minimization tactic to reduce bat mortality at terrestrial wind energy facilities. Site-specific studies have demonstrated that bat activity is higher during lower wind speeds and that operational curtailment can effectively reduce fatalities. However, the exact nature of the relationship between curtailment cut-in speed and bat fatality reduction remains unclear. To evaluate the efficacy of differing curtailment regimes in reducing bat fatalities, we examined data from turbine curtailment experiments in the United States and Canada in a meta-analysis framework. We used multiple statistical models to explore possible linear and non-linear relationships between turbine cut-in speed and bat fatality. Because the overall sample size for this meta-analysis was small (n = 36 control-treatment studies from 17 wind farms), we conducted a power analysis to assess the number of control-treatment curtailment studies needed to understand the relationship between fatality reduction and change in cut-in speed. We also identified the characteristics of individual curtailment field studies that may influence their power to detect fatality reductions, and in turn, contribute to future meta-analyses. We found strong evidence that implementing turbine curtailment reduces fatality rates of bats at wind farms; the estimated fatality ratio across all studies was 0.37 (p < 0.001), or a 63% decrease in fatalities. However, the nature of the relationship between the magnitude of treatment and reduction in fatalities was more difficult to assess. Models that represented the response ratio as a continuous variable (e.g., with a linear relationship between the change in cut-in speed and fatalities) and a categorical variable (to allow for possible non-linearity in this relationship) both had substantial support when compared using AICc. The linear model represented the best fit, likely due to model simplicity, but the non-linear model was the most likely without accounting for parsimony and suggested fatality rates decreased when the difference in curtailment cut-in speeds was 2m/s or larger. The power analyses showed that the power to detect effects in the meta-analysis was low if fatality reductions were less than 50%, which suggests that smaller increases in cut-in speed (i.e., between different treatment categories) may not be easily detectable with the current dataset. While curtailment is an effective operational mitigation measure overall, additional well-designed curtailment studies are needed to determine precisely whether higher cut-in speeds can further reduce bat fatalities.

PMID:34788295 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0256382

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Cross-population coupling of neural activity based on Gaussian process current source densities

PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Nov 17;17(11):e1009601. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009601. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Because local field potentials (LFPs) arise from multiple sources in different spatial locations, they do not easily reveal coordinated activity across neural populations on a trial-to-trial basis. As we show here, however, once disparate source signals are decoupled, their trial-to-trial fluctuations become more accessible, and cross-population correlations become more apparent. To decouple sources we introduce a general framework for estimation of current source densities (CSDs). In this framework, the set of LFPs result from noise being added to the transform of the CSD by a biophysical forward model, while the CSD is considered to be the sum of a zero-mean, stationary, spatiotemporal Gaussian process, having fast and slow components, and a mean function, which is the sum of multiple time-varying functions distributed across space, each varying across trials. We derived biophysical forward models relevant to the data we analyzed. In simulation studies this approach improved identification of source signals compared to existing CSD estimation methods. Using data recorded from primate auditory cortex, we analyzed trial-to-trial fluctuations in both steady-state and task-evoked signals. We found cortical layer-specific phase coupling between two probes and showed that the same analysis applied directly to LFPs did not recover these patterns. We also found task-evoked CSDs to be correlated across probes, at specific cortical depths. Using data from Neuropixels probes in mouse visual areas, we again found evidence for depth-specific phase coupling of primary visual cortex and lateromedial area based on the CSDs.

PMID:34788286 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009601

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Gender-related differences in prevalence, intensity and associated risk factors of Schistosoma infections in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021 Nov 17;15(11):e0009083. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009083. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis remains a global-health problem with over 90% of its burden concentrated in Africa. Field studies reflect the complex ways in which socio-cultural and socio-economic variables, affect the distribution of Schistosoma infections across different populations. This review set out to systematically investigate and quantify the differences in Schistosoma infection burdens between males and females in Africa for two of the most prevalent Schistosoma species-Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium.

METHODOLOGY: We searched (from inception to 11th March 2020) Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed, and Web of Science for relevant studies on schistosomiasis. We included studies that report S. mansoni and/or S. haematobium prevalence and/or intensity data distributed between males and females. We conducted meta-analyses on the male to female (M:F) prevalence of infection ratios. Subgroup analyses were performed according to study baseline prevalence, sample size and the lower and upper age limit of study participants. We also present a descriptive analysis of differential risk and intensity of infection across males and females. Evidence for differences in the prevalence of schistosomiasis infection between males and females is presented, stratified by Schistosoma species.

RESULT: We identified 128 relevant studies, with over 200,000 participants across 23 countries. Of all the reported differences in the prevalence of infection between males and females, only 41% and 34% were statistically significant for S. mansoni and S. haematobium, respectively. Similar proportions of studies (27% and 34% for for S. haematobium and S. mansoni, respectively) of the reported differences in intensity of infection between males and females were statistically significant. The meta-analyses summarized a higher prevalence of infection in males; pooled random-effects weighted M:F prevalence of infection ratios were 1.20 (95% CI 1.11-1.29) for S. haematobium and 1.15 (95% CI 1.08-1.22) for S. mansoni. However, females are underrespresented in some of the studies. Additionally, there was significant heterogeneity across studies (Higgins I2 statistic (p-values < 0.001, I2values>95%)). Results of the subgroup analysis showed that the baseline prevalence influenced the M:F prevalence ratios for S. haematobium and S. mansoni, with higher M:F prevalence of infection ratios in settings with a lower baseline prevalence of infection. Across the studies, we identified four major risk factors associated with infection rates: occupational and recreational water contact, knowledge, socio-economic factors and demographic factors. The effect of these risk factors on the burden of infection in males and females varied across studies.

CONCLUSIONS: We find evidence of differences in prevalence of infection between males and females which may reflect differences in gender norms and water contact activities, suggesting that policy changes at the regional level may help ameliorate gender-related disparities in schistosomiasis infection burden. Collecting, robustly analysing, and reporting, sex-disaggregated epidemiological data, is currently lacking, but would be highly informative for planning effective treatment programmes and establishing those most at risk of schistosomiasis infections.

PMID:34788280 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009083

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MGEnrichment: A web application for microglia gene list enrichment analysis

PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Nov 17;17(11):e1009160. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009160. eCollection 2021 Nov.

ABSTRACT

Gene expression analysis is becoming increasingly utilized in neuro-immunology research, and there is a growing need for non-programming scientists to be able to analyze their own genomic data. MGEnrichment is a web application developed both to disseminate to the community our curated database of microglia-relevant gene lists, and to allow non-programming scientists to easily conduct statistical enrichment analysis on their gene expression data. Users can upload their own gene IDs to assess the relevance of their expression data against gene lists from other studies. We include example datasets of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) from human postmortem brain samples from Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and matched controls. We demonstrate how MGEnrichment can be used to expand the interpretations of these DEG lists in terms of regulation of microglial gene expression and provide novel insights into how ASD DEGs may be implicated specifically in microglial development, microbiome responses and relationships to other neuropsychiatric disorders. This tool will be particularly useful for those working in microglia, autism spectrum disorders, and neuro-immune activation research. MGEnrichment is available at https://ciernialab.shinyapps.io/MGEnrichmentApp/ and further online documentation and datasets can be found at https://github.com/ciernialab/MGEnrichmentApp. The app is released under the GNU GPLv3 open source license.

PMID:34788279 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009160