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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The “Mellanby effect” in alcoholised e-scooter drivers

Int J Legal Med. 2022 Nov 28. doi: 10.1007/s00414-022-02920-z. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Several studies tried to discuss and clarify the so-called Mellanby effect: Similar blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) supposedly lead to more signs of impairment in the phase of alcohol resorption than elimination. To assess this effect for alcoholised e-scooter driving, results of a real-driving fitness study were subanalysed.

METHODS: Sixteen subjects (9 females; 7 males) who completed runs at comparable BACs in the phases of alcohol resorption and elimination were chosen to assess a possible “Mellanby effect”. The data of the subjects was taken from a prior e-scooter study by Zube et al., which included 63 subjects in total.

RESULTS: In the phase of alcohol resorption, the relative driving performance was approx. 92% of the phase of elimination (p value 0.21). Statistically significant more demerits were allocated to the obstacle “narrowing track” in the phase of resorption than elimination. Subjects also needed significantly more time to pass the obstacles “narrowing track”, “driving in circles counterclockwise” and “thresholds” in the phase of resorption than elimination.

DISCUSSION: The most relevant obstacle to discriminate between the two different states of alcoholisation was the narrowing track. Insofar, measurements of the standard deviation of the lateral position (SDLP) might also be a sensitive component for the detection of central nervous driving impairment during shorter trips with an e-scooter. Additionally, driving slower during the phase of alcohol resorption seems to be the attempt to compensate alcohol-related deficits.

CONCLUSION: The results of the study suggest a slight Mellanby effect in e-scooter drivers.

PMID:36437382 | DOI:10.1007/s00414-022-02920-z

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Assessment of artificial neural networks to predict red colorant production by Talaromyces amestolkiae

Bioprocess Biosyst Eng. 2022 Nov 28. doi: 10.1007/s00449-022-02819-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Consumer choice is typically influenced by color, leading to an increase in the use of artificial colorants by industry. However, several artificial colorants have been banned due to their harmful effects on human health and the environment, leading to increased interest in colorants from natural sources. Natural colorants can be found in plants, insects, and microorganisms. The importance of evaluating the technical and cost feasibility for the production of natural colorants are important factors for the replacement of artificial counterpart. Therefore, it is highly beneficial to predict the productivity of microbial colorants. The use of statistical methods that generate polynomial models through multiple regressions can provide information of interest about a bioprocess. However, modeling and control of biological processes require complex systems models, because they are nonlinear and non-deterministic systems. In this regard, artificial neural networks are suitable for estimating bioprocess variables with systems modeling. In this work, two different strategies were developed to predict the production of red colorants by Talaromyces amestolkiae, namely simulation by artificial neural networks (ANN) and response surface methodology (RSM). The results showed that the colorant concentration predicted by ANN is closer to the experimental data than that predicted by polynomial models fitted by multiple regression. Thus, this work suggests that the use of ANN can identify the initial conditions of the culture parameters that have the greatest influence on colorant production and can be a tool to be employed to improve the production of biotechnological products, such as microbial colorants.

PMID:36437377 | DOI:10.1007/s00449-022-02819-4

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Torcular pseudomass is frequently detected on fetal magnetic resonance imaging and reduces with gestational age

Pediatr Radiol. 2022 Nov 28. doi: 10.1007/s00247-022-05549-7. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The torcular pseudomass is an incidental extra-axial midline mass located between the venous sinuses and the occipital squama in the pediatric population. Although this structure is presumed to be a developmental feature, it has not been characterized on fetal MRI.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency, imaging features and longitudinal in utero evolution of torcular pseudomass using fetal MRI.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We present a single-center retrospective study of fetal MRI performed at a tertiary hospital. Two independent reviewers first ordinally scored torcular pseudomass as absent, focal, crescentic or bulky based on morphology. We reviewed available follow-up fetal and postnatal MRI and further classified torcular pseudomass as stable, involuted or progressive. We also collected clinical and demographic data from electronic charts and compared them among categories, corrected for multiple comparisons.

RESULTS: This study included a total of 219 fetuses with median gestational age of 28 weeks (interquartile range [IQR]: 23-32 weeks). Torcular pseudomass was absent in 8% (n=17) and present as a focal mass in 15% (n=33), crescentic in 45% (n=98) and bulky in 32% (n=71) of the cases. Median gestational age was statistically different among torcular pseudomass categories and inversely associated with size. Follow-up fetal MRI was available in 9.6% (n=21) of cases (median interval 4 weeks; IQR: 2-9 weeks) and torcular pseudomass in these cases was classified as stable in 67% (n=14), involuted in 29% (n=6) and progressive in 5% (n=1). Postnatal MRI was available in 5% (n=12) of fetuses (median interval 11.5 months, IQR: 3-17 months), and among these cases torcular pseudomass was classified as stable in 33% (n=4) and involuted in 67% (n=8).

CONCLUSION: Torcular pseudomass is highly prevalent in the fetal population and shows a natural tendency to involute, even in utero, although it sometimes persists during early infanthood.

PMID:36437371 | DOI:10.1007/s00247-022-05549-7

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A cost-utility analysis between decompression only and fusion surgery for elderly patients with lumbar spinal stenosis and sagittal imbalance

Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 27;12(1):20408. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-24784-4.

ABSTRACT

Lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) and sagittal imbalance are relatively common in elderly patients. Although the goals of surgery include both functional and radiological improvements, the criteria of correction may be too strict for elderly patients. If the main symptom of patients is not forward-stooping but neurogenic claudication or pain, lumbar decompression without adding fusion procedure may be a surgical option. We performed cost-utility analysis between lumbar decompression and lumbar fusion surgery for those patients. Elderly patients (age > 60 years) who underwent 1-2 levels lumbar fusion surgery (F-group, n = 31) or decompression surgery (D-group, n = 40) for LSS with sagittal imbalance (C7 sagittal vertical axis, C7-SVA > 40 mm) with follow-up ≥ 2 years were included. Clinical outcomes (Euro-Quality of Life-5 Dimensions, EQ-5D; Oswestry Disability Index, ODI; numerical rating score of pain on the back and leg, NRS-B and NRS-L) and radiological parameters (C7-SVA; lumbar lordosis, LL; the difference between pelvic incidence and lumbar lordosis, PI-LL; pelvic tilt, PT) were assessed. The quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER) were calculated from a utility score of EQ-5D. Postoperatively, both groups attained clinical and radiological improvement in all parameters, but NRS-L was more improved in the F-group (p = 0.048). ICER of F-group over D-group was 49,833 US dollars/QALY. Cost-effective lumbar decompression may be a recommendable surgical option for certain elderly patients, despite less improvement of leg pain than with fusion surgery.

PMID:36437360 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-24784-4

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Extensions of Health Economic Evaluations in R for Microsoft Excel Users: A Tutorial for Incorporating Heterogeneity and Conducting Value of Information Analyses

Pharmacoeconomics. 2022 Nov 28. doi: 10.1007/s40273-022-01203-0. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Advanced health economic analysis techniques currently performed in Microsoft Excel, such as incorporating heterogeneity, time-dependent transitions and a value of information analysis, can be easily transferred to R. Often the outputs of survival analyses (such as Weibull regression models) will estimate the impacts of correlated patient characteristics on patient outcomes, and are utilised directly as inputs for health economic decision models. This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide of how to conduct such analyses with a Markov model developed in R, and offers a comparison with established analyses performed in Microsoft Excel. This is done through the conversion of a previously published Microsoft Excel case study of a hip replacement surgery cost-effectiveness model. We hope that this paper can act as a facilitator in switching decision models from Microsoft Excel to R for complex health economic analyses, providing open-access code and data, suitable for future adaptation.

PMID:36437359 | DOI:10.1007/s40273-022-01203-0

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Species traits determined different responses to “zero-growth” policy in China’s marine fisheries

Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 27;12(1):20410. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-24897-w.

ABSTRACT

China remains the largest nation of marine capture fisheries in the world in the last few decades, at the cost of offshore fisheries degradation by overfishing. Although fisheries regulations have become gradually tightened, the recovering evidences are weak and the catch species compositions are far from satisfactory. To explore better and reasonable countermeasures, besides the “zero growth” policy (i.e. the national total fisheries production limitation), five targets with different ecological traits were selected for stock assessment and rebuilding by Monte Carlo Catch-Maximum Sustainable Yield method. The results showed the control of total rather than species catch could not lead to the recovery of fisheries and maintain community function. Individual species showed different responses to overfishing according to their biological characteristics. High trophic level species can be sensitive to overfishing, and difficult to rebuild stocks after collapse. Pelagic small fish resources increased first but eventually decreased under high fishing pressure. Scientific-based restocking can enhance resource recovery. Besides “zero growth” policy, fisheries management should be further refined, in particular for main economic species based on their biological traits, as well as the support of reliable fisheries statistics and regulation implementation in place. To relieve the conflict between rising fishery products demand and falling catches, aquaculture and seeking resources from the high seas and EEZs are supposed to be successful ways, on the premise of taking full account of ecological health, maritime safety, and food security.

PMID:36437353 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-24897-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Fusarium chlamydosporum, causing wilt disease of chili (Capsicum annum L.) and brinjal (Solanum melongena L.) in Northern Himalayas: a first report

Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 27;12(1):20392. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-23259-w.

ABSTRACT

Chili (Capsicum annuum L.) and brinjal (Solanum melongena L.) are the most widely grown solanaceous crops in the world. However, their production has reduced over several years due to the attack of various fungal and bacterial pathogens and various abiotic factors. Still, the major constrain in their production are pathogens with fungal etiology, especially the fungal wilt of solanaceous crops. Fusarium oxysporum and Fusarium solani have been previously identified as the pathogens causing wilt disease in chili and brinjal. Recently, a new fungal pathogen F. equiseti has been reported as the causal agent of wilt disease infecting chili. The current study focused on identifying fungal pathogens associated with the wilted plants of chili and brinjal, collected from different parts of the Himalayan region of Kashmir valley, through morpho-cultural and molecular characterization. DNA extraction, PCR amplification, and sequencing were performed on various isolates. DNA barcoding using the internal transcribed spacer region (ITS) was used to identify the pathogen followed by the pathogenicity test. Further confirmation of the pathogen was done by sequencing of transcription elongation factor (TEF) and Calmodulin (CAL2). In current study Fusarium chlamydosporum has been reported as the wilt causing pathogen of chili and brinjal for the first time in Kashmir Himalayas.

PMID:36437280 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-23259-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Statistical evaluation of testing conditions on the saturated hydraulic conductivity of Brazilian lateritic soils using artificial intelligence approaches

Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 27;12(1):20381. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-24779-1.

ABSTRACT

The saturated hydraulic conductivity, ksat, is a crucial variable to describe the hydromechanical behavior of soils. The value of ksat of lateritic soils that are typically found in tropical regions is highly affected by the soil’s structure, void ratio, and fine particle aggregation. As a result, the determination of ksat in the field or in the laboratory is complex and involves greater variability, depending on the type of test and on the spatial location of sampling. This paper presents a study of ksat values of lateritic soils, analyzing them using Statistic, Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Decision Trees (CHAID). This study aims to support decision-making regarding the type of test and depth chosen for sampling in laterite soils and understanding the factors influencing the permeability of such soils. An extensive literature review on the ksat values of lateritic soils was performed, providing data for the establishment of a database comprise of 722 registries. According to agronomic and geotechnical soil classifications, the Brazilian lateritic soils presents a “moderate” hydraulic conductivity. A significant variation of permeability values along the depth was identified, particularly for depths between 0.1 and 0.2 m. Regarding the importance of testing variables, the ANN indicated a high dependency on the type of test. The decision tree divided field test and laboratory test automatically, inferring the relevance of the type of test to the determination of ksat.

PMID:36437279 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-24779-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

High antibody levels and reduced cellular response in children up to one year after SARS-CoV-2 infection

Nat Commun. 2022 Nov 28;13(1):7315. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-35055-1.

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 course and immunity differ in children and adults. We analyzed immune response dynamics in 28 families up to 12 months after mild or asymptomatic infection. Unlike adults, the initial response is plasmablast-driven in children. Four months after infection, children show an enhanced specific antibody response and lower but detectable spike 1 protein (S1)-specific B and T cell responses than their parents. While specific antibodies decline, neutralizing antibody activity and breadth increase in both groups. The frequencies of S1-specific B and T cell responses remain stable. However, in children, one year after infection, an increase in the S1-specific IgA class switch and the expression of CD27 on S1-specific B cells and T cell maturation are observed. These results, together with the enhanced neutralizing potential and breadth of the specific antibodies, suggest a progressive maturation of the S1-specific immune response. Hence, the immune response in children persists over 12 months but dynamically changes in quality, with progressive neutralizing, breadth, and memory maturation. This implies a benefit for booster vaccination in children to consolidate memory formation.

PMID:36437276 | DOI:10.1038/s41467-022-35055-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Development of a new screening method for faster kinship analyses in mass disasters: a proof of concept study

Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 27;12(1):20372. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-22805-w.

ABSTRACT

Kinship analysis in forensics is based on the calculation of the respective kinship indices. However, this calculation is only possible when the subject under identification has been associated with a particular population, whose allele frequency data is available for the particular set of STR markers used in the forensic practices. In the case of mass disasters, where a large number of individuals are to be identified, gathering the population frequency data and calculating the kinship indices can be an intricate process which requires a lot of time and huge resources. The new method of allele matching cut off score (AMCOS) developed in this study is based on the allele sharing approach. This approach simply refers to the number of shared alleles (1 or 2) between the two individuals; also known as identical by state (IBS) alleles which might have been inherited from a recent common ancestor in which the alleles are identical by descendent (IBD). In case of mass disasters, this method can be used to narrow down the number of pairs (dead and alive) to be matched for kinship without using the allele frequency data. The results obtained from this method could further be confirmed by LR based method, which uses the allele frequency data of the respective population of the pairs being tested for kinship. AMCOS method has been tested for its sensitivity, specificity and various other statistical parameters and has shown promising values for the same in various types of kinship analyses. This ascertains the authenticity and potential use of this method in forensic practice but only after its validation in a larger sample size. AMCOS method has been tested on siblings and grandparent-grandchildren by using autosomal and X-STR markers both, as the reference samples from the parents cannot always be available for the identification. The present study also compared the results shown by the autosomal and X-STR markers in siblings and grandparent-grandchildren identification, thereby suggesting the use of better set of markers on the basis of obtained values of various statistical parameters.

PMID:36437267 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-22805-w