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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A Novel Tool for Real-Time Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters of Communicable Diseases Using Contact-Tracing Data: Development and Deployment

JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2022 Apr 26. doi: 10.2196/34438. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System (SORMAS) contains a management module to support countries in epidemic response. It consists of documentation, linkage, and follow-up of cases, contacts, and events. To allow SORMAS users to visualise data, compute essential surveillance indicators, and estimate epidemiological parameters from such network data in real-time, we developed the SORMAS Statistics (SORMAS-Stats) application.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to describe the essential visualisations, surveillance indicators, and epidemiological parameters implemented in the SORMAS-Stats application and illustrates the application of SORMAS-Stats in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.

METHODS: Based on findings from a rapid review and SORMAS user requests, we included the following visualisation and estimation of parameters in SORMAS-Stats: transmission network diagram, serial interval (SI), time-varying reproduction number R(t), dispersion parameter (k) and additional surveillance indicators presented in graphs and tables. We estimated SI by fitting lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions to the observed distribution of the number of days between symptom onset dates of infector-infectee pairs. We estimated k by fitting a negative binomial distribution to the observed number of infectees per infector. Furthermore, we applied the Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach and estimated R(t) using the incidence data and the observed SI computed from the transmission network data.

RESULTS: Using COVID-19 contact-tracing data of confirmed cases reported between July 31 and October 29, 2021, in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté region of France, we constructed a network diagram containing 63570 nodes. The network comprises 1.75% (1115/63570) events, 19.59% (12452/63570) case persons, and 78.66% (50003/63570) exposed persons, 1238 infector-infectee pairs, 3860 transmission chains with 24.69% (953/3860) having events as the index infector. The distribution with the best fit to the observed SI data was lognormal distribution with a mean of 4.30 days (95% CI, 4.09-4.51 days). We estimated the dispersion parameter k of 21.11 (95% CI, 7.57-34.66) and an effective reproduction number R of 0.9 (95% CI, 0.58-0.60). The weekly estimated R(t) values ranged from 0.80 to 1.61.

CONCLUSIONS: We provide an application for real-time estimation of epidemiological parameters, essential for informing outbreak response strategies. The estimates are commensurate with findings from previous studies. SORMAS-Stats application would greatly assist public health authorities in the regions using SORMAS or similar tools by providing extensive visualisations and computation of surveillance indicators.

PMID:35486812 | DOI:10.2196/34438

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Optically levitated conveyor belt based on polarization-dependent metasurface lens arrays

Opt Lett. 2022 May 1;47(9):2194-2197. doi: 10.1364/OL.457314.

ABSTRACT

In this Letter, we have proposed an optically levitated conveyor belt based on periodic arrays of a polarization-dependent nanoslit-based metasurface lens (NBML) that is capable of realizing far-field capture, transport, and sorting. The NBML in arrays can be lit up in a relay way by rotating the polarization angle of the excitation beam and thereby provide a better stiffness for transporting particles. When excited at the wavelength of 1064 nm and power density of 0.3 mW/µm2, the particles will follow the directional movement of hot spots with an alternative switch of polarization angle and the success ratio of transport can be up to 97.0% with the consideration of Brownian motion. Furthermore, the influence of polarization switching time and incident optical power densities on the efficiency of transport are investigated numerically from a statistical point of view. The sorting of particles with different sizes has also been proved in a given power density. With the analysis of numerical results, our research provides a new approach, to the best of our knowledge, for particle trapping and transport, which is beneficial to on-chip optofluidic applications.

PMID:35486758 | DOI:10.1364/OL.457314

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Mutual dynamics between synchronous solitons in a bidirectional mode-locked fiber laser

Opt Lett. 2022 May 1;47(9):2170-2173. doi: 10.1364/OL.455599.

ABSTRACT

In this Letter, the mutual dynamics between synchronous solitons in a bidirectional mode-locked fiber laser are studied via dispersive Fourier transform methodology. We explore the spectral evolution and the statistical correlations between solitons with bidirectional propagation, indicating the low and high mutual linear dependences of the spectral energy jitters in stable and breathing mode-locking states, respectively. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, the oscillating and sliding phase dynamics are experimentally revealed by the interference between bidirectional breathing solitons in ultrafast fiber lasers for the first time. Our findings enrich the understanding of the internal mutual dynamics between bidirectional solitons, which guides the extension of their potential applications, such as Sagnac-effect-based optical sensing.

PMID:35486752 | DOI:10.1364/OL.455599

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Selective clonal persistence of human retroviruses in vivo: Radial chromatin organization, integration site, and host transcription

Sci Adv. 2022 Apr 29;8(17):eabm6210. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abm6210. Epub 2022 Apr 29.

ABSTRACT

The human retroviruses HTLV-1 (human T cell leukemia virus type 1) and HIV-1 persist in vivo as a reservoir of latently infected T cell clones. It is poorly understood what determines which clones survive in the reservoir. We compared >160,000 HTLV-1 integration sites (>40,000 HIV-1 sites) from T cells isolated ex vivo from naturally infected individuals with >230,000 HTLV-1 integration sites (>65,000 HIV-1 sites) from in vitro infection to identify genomic features that determine selective clonal survival. Three statistically independent factors together explained >40% of the observed variance in HTLV-1 clonal survival in vivo: the radial intranuclear position of the provirus, its genomic distance from the centromere, and the intensity of local host genome transcription. The radial intranuclear position of the provirus and its distance from the centromere also explained ~7% of clonal persistence of HIV-1 in vivo. Selection for the intranuclear and intrachromosomal location of the provirus and host transcription intensity favors clonal persistence of human retroviruses in vivo.

PMID:35486737 | DOI:10.1126/sciadv.abm6210

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Participation Mediates the Relationship Between Postconcussive Symptoms and Suicidal Ideation Among Veterans

Am J Occup Ther. 2022 May 1;76(3):7603205020. doi: 10.5014/ajot.2022.048561.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Veterans with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) and associated symptoms are at risk for suicide. Postconcussive symptoms (PCS) may heighten risk for suicidal thoughts by limiting veterans’ participation.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether participation mediates the relationship between PCS and suicidal ideation.

DESIGN: Cross-sectional, exploratory design. Structural equation models were used to investigate whether participation mediated the relationship between PCS and suicidal ideation.

SETTING: Community.

PARTICIPANTS: Veterans with mTBI (N = 145).

OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The Ohio State University TBI Identification Method was used to establish mTBI diagnosis. We identified latent variables for PCS and participation using the Neurobehavioral Symptom Inventory and select domains of the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36, respectively. We used the Beck Scale for Suicide Ideation to measure the presence of suicidal ideation.

RESULTS: Participation mediated the relationship between PCS and the presence of suicidal ideation (odds ratio [OR] = 1.09, p = .011). More severe PCS were associated with lesser participation (β = -.86, p < .001); greater participation was associated with lower odds of suicidal ideation (OR = 0.92, p = .007).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: PCS may heighten risk for suicidal thoughts among veterans by limiting successful participation, a primary target of occupational therapy intervention. Thus, the results suggest that occupational therapy practitioners can play a substantial role in suicide prevention services for veterans with mTBI. Preventive services could mitigate suicide risk among veterans with mTBI by enabling sustained engagement in meaningful and health-promoting activity (e.g., reasons for living) and targeting PCS. What This Article Adds: Researchers have proposed that occupational therapy practitioners can help prevent veteran suicide by supporting their engagement in meaningful, health-promoting activity and by targeting suicide risk factors within their scope of practice. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to offer empirical support for such proposed suicide prevention efforts. Although additional research is needed, these results are promising and highlight a distinct role for occupational therapy in suicide prevention.

PMID:35486717 | DOI:10.5014/ajot.2022.048561

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Measuring coverage and quality of supportive care for inpatient neonatal infections: EN-BIRTH multi-country validation study

J Glob Health. 2022 Apr 30;12:04029. doi: 10.7189/jogh.12.04029.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: An estimated 7 million episodes of severe newborn infections occur annually worldwide, with half a million newborn deaths, most occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Whilst injectable antibiotics are necessary to treat the infection, supportive care is also crucial in ending preventable mortality and morbidity. This study uses multi-country data to assess gaps in coverage, quality, and documentation of supportive care, considering implications for measurement.

METHODS: The EN-BIRTH study was conducted in five hospitals in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Tanzania (July 2017-July 2018). Newborns with an admission diagnosis of clinically-defined infection (sepsis, meningitis, and/or pneumonia) were included. Researchers extracted data from inpatient case notes and interviews with women (usually the mothers) as the primary family caretakers after discharge. The interviews were conducted using a structured survey questionnaire. We used descriptive statistics to report coverage of newborn supportive care components such as oxygen use, phototherapy, and appropriate feeding, and we assessed the validity of measurement through survey-reports using a random-effects model to generate pooled estimates. In this study, key supportive care components were assessment and correction of hypoxaemia, hyperbilirubinemia, and hypoglycaemia.

RESULTS: Among 1015 neonates who met the inclusion criteria, 89% had an admission clinical diagnosis of sepsis. Major gaps in documentation and care practices related to supportive care varied substantially across the participating hospitals. The pooled sensitivity was low for the survey-reported oxygen use (47%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 30%-64%) and moderate for phototherapy (60%; 95% CI = 44%-75%). The pooled specificity was high for both the survey-reported oxygen use (85%; 95% CI = 80%-89%) and phototherapy (91%; 95% CI = 82%-97%).

CONCLUSIONS: The women’s reports during the exit survey consistently underestimated the coverage of supportive care components for managing infection. We have observed high variability in the inpatient documents across facilities. A standardised ward register for inpatient small and sick newborn care may capture selected supportive care data. However, tracking the detailed care will require standardised individual-level data sets linked to newborn case notes. We recommend investments in assessing the implementation aspects of a standardised inpatient register in resource-poor settings.

PMID:35486705 | DOI:10.7189/jogh.12.04029

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The non-Riemannian nature of perceptual color space

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 May 3;119(18):e2119753119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2119753119. Epub 2022 Apr 29.

ABSTRACT

SignificanceFor over 100 y, the scientific community has adhered to a paradigm, introduced by Riemann and furthered by Helmholtz and Schrodinger, where perceptual color space is a three-dimensional Riemannian space. This implies that the distance between two colors is the length of the shortest path that connects them. We show that a Riemannian metric overestimates the perception of large color differences because large color differences are perceived as less than the sum of small differences. This effect, called diminishing returns, cannot exist in a Riemannian geometry. Consequently, we need to adapt how we model color differences, as the current standard, [Formula: see text], recognized by the International Commission for Weights and Measures, does not account for diminishing returns in color difference perception.

PMID:35486695 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2119753119

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Surgical aortic valve replacement for low-gradient aortic stenosis

J Cardiovasc Med (Hagerstown). 2022 May 1;23(5):338-343. doi: 10.2459/JCM.0000000000001292.

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Low-gradient aortic stenosis is a challenging entity that needs accurate preoperative evaluation. For this high-risk patient population, ad hoc predictive scores are not available and profile risk is currently revealed by the EuroSCOREs. Aims of this study are to verify the suitability of the ES II as predictor of mortality in low-gradient aortic stenosis and to analyse the role of surgery as a treatment.

METHODS: From June 2013 to August 2019, 414 patients underwent surgical aortic valve replacement for low-gradient aortic stenosis. Mean age was 75.78 ± 6.77 years and 190 were women. The prognostic value of Logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II were compared by receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS: In-hospital, 30-day and 1-year mortality rates were respectively 3.4, 2.9 and 4.8% (14, 12 and 20 patients over 414). In-hospital mortality risk calculated by the Additive EuroSCORE was 7.2 ± 2.7%, by the Logistic EuroSCORE was 9 ± 5.2% and by the ES II was 4.13 ± 2.56%. The prognostic values of the EuroSCORE II and of the EuroSCORE were analysed in a ROC curve analysis for the prediction of in-hospital mortality [area under the curve (AUC): 0.62 vs. 0.58], 30-day mortality (AUC: 0.63 vs. 0.64) and 1-year mortality (AUC: 0.79 vs. 0.65). Both scores did not show significant differences with the only exception of 1-year mortality, for which EuroSCORE II had a better predictive ability than the Logistic EuroSCORE (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: In low-gradient aortic stenosis undergoing surgery, the EuroSCORE II is a strong predictor of 1-year mortality.

PMID:35486684 | DOI:10.2459/JCM.0000000000001292

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Effects of sitagliptin on serum lipid levels in patients with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

J Cardiovasc Med (Hagerstown). 2022 May 1;23(5):308-317. doi: 10.2459/JCM.0000000000001270. Epub 2021 Nov 8.

ABSTRACT

AIM: Lipid abnormalities often occur in patients with diabetes mellitus and the coexistence of diabetes mellitus and dyslipidaemia will increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases. However, the specific effects of sitagliptin on lipid control remain elusive in diabetic patients. The aim of this meta-analysis is to investigate the effects of sitagliptin alone or with other antidiabetic agents on serum lipid control.

METHODS: PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase and the ClinicalTrials.gov website were systematically searched from 2006 (the first year that sitagliptin entered market) to 16 January 2021. Eligible studies were randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of sitagliptin including outcomes of serum total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C).

RESULTS: A total of 14 RCTs with 2654 patients were identified. Treatment with sitagliptin alone or in combination with other antidiabetic agents significantly reduced serum TC [mean difference (MD) = -5.52 95% confidence interval (95% CI), -7.88 to -3.15; P < 0.00001] and LDL-C (MD = -0.07; 95% CI, -0.14 to 0.00; P < 0.00001) in patients with type 2 diabetes. No statistical significances were found in serum triglycerides (MD = 1.53; 95% CI, -8.22 to 11.28; P = 0.76) or HDL-C (MD = 0.65; 95% CI, -1.59 to 0.29; P = 0.18). Subgroup analyses suggest that sitagliptin can significantly decrease serum LDL-C, TC and triglyceride levels compared with placebo alone, and no statistical significance was found in comparison with the serum HDLC levels.

CONCLUSION: Sitagliptin alone or in combination with other antidiabetic agents significantly reduces serum TC and LDL-C in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, while no significant difference was observed in serum triglycerides or HDL-C.

PMID:35486682 | DOI:10.2459/JCM.0000000000001270

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Depression and suicidal ideation among medical students in a private medical college of Bangladesh. A cross sectional web based survey

PLoS One. 2022 Apr 29;17(4):e0265367. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0265367. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

This study was done to investigate the prevalence of depression and suicidal ideation among private medical students in Bangladesh. A total of 237 medical students participated in this cross-sectional web-based survey by e-questionnaire using the Google Form. The study was conducted from November 2020 to December 2020 at Enam Medical College and Hospital which is situated in Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Out of 237 medical students, prevalence of depression was found 58.6%, and prevalence of suicidal ideation was found 27.4% which is higher than the global prevalence. Bivariate and multivariate analysis and logistic regression-based odds ratios (ORs) was done to see the association between grade of depression and suicidal thoughts with different variables. Association between grade of depression with family problems (x2 = 16.716, P = 0.001), drug addiction (x2 = 16.601, P = 0.001), committed relationship status (x2 = 40.292, P = <0.001) were statistically significant. Whereas, the association between suicidal thoughts with family problems (x2 = 29.881, P = <0.001), failed any subject during study (x2 = 12.024, P = 0.007), alcohol uses (x2 = 15.977, P = 0.001), drug addiction (x2 = 22.633, P = <0.001), committed relationship status (x2 = 35.219, P = <0.001) were statistically significant. However, medical students whom had to earn other than their family income were 2.3 times (OR: 2.285, 95% CL: 0.897, 5.820) greater prone to be depressed than those who do not had to earn by themselves. On the contrary, medical students who are single were 2.35 times (OR: 2.352, 95% CL: 0.926, 5.973) greater prone to have suicidal thoughts than the married students. This study showed that a large percentage of Bangladeshi medical students have been suffering from depression and suicidal ideation. Our recommendation for the authority of the medical colleges are, to build a system with counselling facilities inside every medical colleges in Bangladesh.

PMID:35486632 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0265367