J Acad Consult Liaison Psychiatry. 2022 Jun 2:S2667-2960(22)00274-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jaclp.2022.05.006. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Delirium prediction can augment and optimize care of older adults. Mayo delirium prediction (MDP) tool is a robust tool, developed from a large retrospective data set. MDP tool predicts delirium risk for hospitalized older adults, within 24 hours of hospital admission, based on risk factor information available from electronic health record. We intend to validate the prediction performance of this tool and optimize the tool for clinical use.
DESIGN: Observational cohort study SETTINGS: Mayo Clinic Hospitals, Rochester, MN PARTICIPANTS: All Hospitalized older adults (age >50 years) from December 2019 to June 2020. Patients with an admitting diagnosis of substance use disorder were excluded.
INTERVENTION: Original MDP tool was modified to adjust for the fall risk variable as a binary variable that will facilitate broader applicability across different fall risk tools. The modified MDP tool was validated in the retrospective derivation and validation data set which yielded similar prediction capability (AUROC = 0.85, 0.83 respectively).
MEASUREMENTS: Diagnosis of delirium was captured by flowsheet diagnosis of delirium documented by nursing staff in medical record. Predictive variable data were collected daily.
RESULTS: 8055 patients were included in the study (median age 71 years). The modified MDP tool delirium prediction compared to delirium occurrence was 4% in the low-risk group, 17.8% in the medium-risk group, and 45.3% in the high-risk group (AUROC of 0.80). Recalibration of the tool was attempted to further optimize the tool that resulted in both simplification and increased performance (AUROC 0.82). The simplified tool was able to predict delirium in hospitalized patients admitted to both medical and surgical services.
CONCLUSIONS: Validation of modified MDP tool revealed good prediction capabilities. Recalibration resulted in simplification with increased performance of the tool in both medical and surgical hospitalized patients.
PMID:35660677 | DOI:10.1016/j.jaclp.2022.05.006