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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Estimating the public health impact had tobacco-free nicotine pouches been introduced into the US in 2000

BMC Public Health. 2022 May 21;22(1):1025. doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13441-0.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: For smokers not intending to quit, switching to a reduced-risk nicotine product should be healthier than continuing smoking. We estimate the health impact, over the period 2000-2050, had the nicotine pouch ZYN hypothetically been introduced into the US in 2000. ZYN’s toxicant profile and method of use is like that for Swedish snus, a product with known health effects much less than smoking.

METHODS: Our modelling approach is similar to others developed for estimating potential effects of new tobacco products. It starts with a simulated cohort of 100,000 individuals in the year 2000 subdivided by age, sex, and smoking status (including years since quitting). They are followed annually accounting for births, net immigrations, deaths and product use changes, with follow-up carried out in the Base Case (ZYN not introduced) and Modified Case (ZYN introduced). Using informed assumptions about initiation, quitting and switching rates, distributions of the population over time are then constructed for each Case, and used to estimate product mortality based on assumptions about the relative risk according to product use.

RESULTS: Whereas in both Base and Modified Cases, the prevalence of any current product use is predicted to decline from about 22% to 10% during follow-up, in the Modified Case about 25% of current users use ZYN by 2050, about a quarter being dual users and the rest ZYN-only users. Over the 50 years, deaths at ages 35-84 from product use among the 100,000 are estimated as 249 less in the Modified than the Base Case, equivalent to about 700,000 less in the whole US. Sensitivity analyses varying individual parameter values confirm the benefits of switching to ZYN, which increase as either the switching rate to ZYN increases or the initiation rate of ZYN relative to smoking increases. Even assuming the reduction in excess mortality risk using ZYN use is 20% of that from smoking rather than the 3.5% assumed in the main analyses, the reduction in product-related deaths would still be 213, or about 600,000 in the US.

CONCLUSIONS: Although such model-based estimates involve uncertainties, the results suggest that introducing ZYN could substantially reduce product-related deaths.

PMID:35597944 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-022-13441-0

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Mental distress and associated factors among women who experienced gender based violence and attending court in South Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

BMC Womens Health. 2022 May 21;22(1):187. doi: 10.1186/s12905-022-01770-6.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Gender-based violence is an act that has physical, psychological, and sexual consequences for women. It is a widespread issue, particularly in developing countries, and it causes women mental distress. Despite the fact that gender-based violence has a significant impact on mental distress, there have no study in Ethiopia. As a result, the purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and associated factors of mental distress among mothers who had experienced gender-based violence and were in court.

METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 423 samples. The data was entered into Epi-data version 3.01 and analyzed with SPSS version 21. Binary logistic regression was used, and variables with p-values less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant with regard to mental distress at the respective 95% CI.

RESULT: The prevalence of mental distress was found to be 59.6% in this study. Mental distress was associated with factors such as a lack of social support, a lack of formal education, a husband’s substance use, rural residence, age greater than 33 years, and a low family income.

CONCLUSION: The prevalence of mental distress is high when compared to the majority of previous findings from other countries. Screening and managing psychological distress in women with a history of violence is preferable, and integrating psychosocial care into court services is recommended.

PMID:35597941 | DOI:10.1186/s12905-022-01770-6

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Exposure to job-related violence among young female sex workers in urban slums of Southwest Nigeria

BMC Public Health. 2022 May 21;22(1):1021. doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13440-1.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In Nigeria, many young girls are engaged in commercial sex work as a means of livelihood and support of dependent relatives. Although studies have documented some of the violence related issues among commercial sex workers, the plight of adolescent and young sex workers particularly in urban slums may be different in context and depth.

OBJECTIVE: This study explored the lived experiences of violence and health related harm among vulnerable young female sex workers in urban slums in Ibadan and Lagos, Southwest Nigeria. It also analyzed their coping strategies and survival mechanisms.

DESIGN: The study is cross-sectional and applied an interpretive phenomenological approach to this qualitative study through in-depth interviews.

PARTICIPANTS: Young female sex workers ages (15-24 years) who reported having experienced violence were recruited for the study. Twelve participants completed the interviews out the 20 initially contacted.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Primary data were collected using in-depth interviews (IDIs). Data were transcribed using a phenomenological framework analysis. Participants’ reports based on life experiences were identified: lived experience “daily brothel life experience”; sources of violence such as law enforcement agents’ intermittent raids; violence experience with clients who often demanded sexual acts beyond the agreed scope; and coping strategies employed to mitigate the challenges.

SETTINGS: The study was conducted in brothels of two selected slum areas in Ibadan and Lagos, Southwest Nigeria.

RESULTS: The results showed that the major motivation for engaging in commercial sex work was for economic reasons. However, there are inherent risks involved particularly for the vulnerable young people. Stigmatization from the community, clients’ uncontrolled-aggressive behavior and harassment from law enforcement agents are some of the frequent violence experiences reported. Self-help coping strategies are usually employed to prevent or mitigate the challenges.

CONCLUSION: The plight of this young people required policy and program attention towards alternative economic empowerment to rehabilitate those willing to leave the profession. Also the need to develop arm reduction interventions towards protection of young sex workers against violence.

PMID:35597935 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-022-13440-1

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The ENJOY MAP for HEALTH: Exercise interveNtion outdoor proJect in the cOmmunitY for older people-More Active People for HEALTHier communities: a study protocol

BMC Public Health. 2022 May 21;22(1):1027. doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13335-1.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is important to maintain health in older age, with physical activity in the outdoors providing mental and physical health benefits for all age groups. One way by which older people can engage in physical activity in the outdoors is through using suitable age-friendly outdoor exercise equipment, the Seniors Exercise Park. The ENJOY MAP for HEALTH aims to evaluate the effect of the Seniors Exercise Park installation and associated capacity building activities on park visitation, park-based physical activity by older people and delivery of community physical activity programs.

METHOD: This study is a quasi-experimental (natural experiment) with pre and post study design evaluating the effect of age-friendly outdoor spaces with specialised outdoor exercise equipment on older people’s physical activity and wellbeing in six Victorian municipalities (local governments/councils). Each council will undergo four stages (site construction and development, promotion and marketing, capacity building and training, evaluation and sustainability). Several activities and methods will be employed from stage one through stage four to evaluate the potential impact of the age-friendly outdoor spaces on physical activity and wellbeing and will comprise the following elements: site observation and equipment utilisation, face to face intercept surveys, development of an online access monitor and community building activities.

DISCUSSION: The project is expected to result in a significant change in the physical outdoor environment for the participating councils and communities whereby older people and other community members will be able to engage in safe physical and social activity programs, socialise more and hence improve the overall wellbeing of older people.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is retrospectively registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry. Trial registration number ACTRN12621000965808 . Date registered 23/07/2021.

PMID:35597934 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-022-13335-1

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Needle tract seeding and abdominal recurrence following pre-treatment biopsy of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST): results of a systematic review

BMC Surg. 2022 May 21;22(1):202. doi: 10.1186/s12893-022-01648-2.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) are rare abdominal tumors. Pretreatment biopsies may be used to diagnose a GIST and enable tailored treatment. Some experts are skeptical about biopsies because they fear tumor cell seeding. The objective of this study was to determine if pretreatment biopsy is associated with increased tumor recurrence.

METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search and included studies assessing the oncological outcome of GIST patients who underwent a pre-treatment core needle biopsy or fine needle aspiration. We assessed methodological quality with the Newcastle-Ottawa-Scale for non-randomized studies. This review was registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42021170290).

RESULTS: Three non-randomized studies and eight case reports comprising 350 patients were eligible for inclusion. No prospective study designed to answer the review question was found. One case of needle tract seeding after percutaneous core needle biopsy of GIST was reported. None of the studies reported an increased rate of abdominal recurrence in patients with pretreatment biopsy.

CONCLUSIONS: The existing evidence does not indicate a relevant risk of needle tract seeding or abdominal recurrence after pre-treatment biopsy of GIST. Biopsy can safely be done to differentiate GIST from other tumors and to select the most appropriate treatment.

PMID:35597932 | DOI:10.1186/s12893-022-01648-2

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Alcohol Addiction: One Entity or Different Entities? A DSM-4-Based Attempt Toward a Geographicization of Alcohol Addiction and Abuse

Alcohol Alcohol. 2022 May 22:agac021. doi: 10.1093/alcalc/agac021. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIM: To examine whether in Europe perceptions of ‘alcoholism’ differ in a discrete manner according to geographical area.

METHOD: Secondary analysis of a data set from a European project carried out in 2013-2014 among 1767 patients treated in alcohol addiction units of nine countries/regions across Europe. The experience of all 11 DSM-4 criteria used for diagnosing ‘alcohol dependence’ and ‘alcohol abuse’ were assessed in patient interviews. The analysis was performed through Multiple Correspondence Analysis.

RESULTS: The symptoms of ‘alcohol dependence’ and ‘alcohol abuse’, posited by DSM-IV, were distributed according to three discrete geographical patterns: a macro-area mainly centered on drinking beer and spirit, a culture traditionally oriented toward wine and a mixed intermediate alcoholic beverage situation.

CONCLUSION: These patterns of perception seem to parallel the diverse drinking cultures of Europe.

PMID:35596950 | DOI:10.1093/alcalc/agac021

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Clinical Progress in Inoperable or Recurrent Advanced Gastric Cancer Treatment from 1004 Single Institute Experiences Between 2007 and 2018

Oncologist. 2022 Feb 19:oyab069. doi: 10.1093/oncolo/oyab069. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In the past decade, several successful clinical trials provided new therapeutic agents approved for advanced gastric cancer (AGC). This study evaluated whether these practice-changing results actually altered the clinical practice.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed medical records of treatment-naive AGC patients who received combination chemotherapy of fluoropyrimidine and platinum between 2007 and 2018 and divided them into three groups: Groups A (2007-10), B (2011-14), and C (2015-2018), respectively. We compared the clinicopathological features, treatment details, and clinical outcomes among the three groups.

RESULTS: In total, 1004 consecutive patients were enrolled (A; n = 254, B; n = 300, and C; n = 450). The number of patients with poor performance status, older age, esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma, and primary tumor increased during the study period. All groups had similar median overall survival (OS); ~16 months) without any statistical difference but steady prolongation of survival was observed in the adjusted with imbalance prognostic factors among groups (B/A; hazard ratio, HR 0.82, 95% C.I 0.68-0.98, C/A; HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.60-0.86); OS of HER2-positive AGC patients was clearly improved (HER2-positive vs HER2-negative in Group B, HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.60-1.06; Group C, HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.51-0.90) but that of diffuse-type AGC patients remained dismal.

CONCLUSIONS: The increasing availability of chemotherapy options potentially contributed to improved survival of AGC patients, but expanded chemotherapeutic indications made the survival benefit inconspicuous in the whole population. Future therapeutic development for the AGC subset not adequately receiving benefit from previous clinical trials is warranted.

PMID:35596939 | DOI:10.1093/oncolo/oyab069

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A Risk Calculator for Post-Operative Urinary Retention (POUR) Following Vaginal Pelvic Floor Surgery: Multivariable Prediction Modelling

BJOG. 2022 May 21. doi: 10.1111/1471-0528.17225. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To determine the peri-operative characteristics associated with an increased risk of post-operative urinary retention (POUR) following vaginal pelvic floor surgery.

DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study using multivariable prediction modelling.

SETTING: A tertiary referral urogynaecology unit.

POPULATION: Patients undergoing vaginal pelvic floor surgery from January 2015 to February 2020.

METHODS: Eighteen variables (24 parameters) were compared between those with and without POUR and then included as potential predictors in statistical models to predict POUR. The final model was chosen as the one with the largest c-index from internal cross-validation. This was then externally validated using a separate data set (n=94) from another surgical centre.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Diagnosis of POUR following surgery while the patient was in hospital.

RESULTS: Among the 700 women undergoing surgery, 301 (43%) experienced POUR. Pre-operative variables with statistically significant univariate relationships with POUR included age, menopausal status, prolapse stage, and uroflow parameters. Significant peri-operative factors included estimated blood loss, amount of intravenous fluid administered, operative time, length of stay, and specific procedures including vaginal hysterectomy with intraperitoneal vault suspension, anterior colporrhaphy, posterior colporrhaphy, and colpocleisis. The lasso logistic regression model had the best combination of internally cross-validated c-index (0.73; 95% CI:071-0.74) and a calibration curve that showed good alignment of observed and predicted risks. Using this data, a POUR risk calculator was developed (https://pourrisk.shinyapps.io/POUR/).

CONCLUSIONS: This POUR risk calculator will allow physicians to counsel patients pre-operatively on their risk of developing POUR after vaginal pelvic surgery and help focus discussion around potential management options.

PMID:35596931 | DOI:10.1111/1471-0528.17225

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Real-World Effectiveness of Belimumab in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Systematic Literature Review

Rheumatol Ther. 2022 May 21. doi: 10.1007/s40744-022-00454-9. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Belimumab is a recombinant human monoclonal antibody that binds to soluble B-lymphocyte stimulator and inhibits its biological activity. Since receiving approvals for the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), several observational studies have investigated the effectiveness of belimumab in the real-world setting. This study reports a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature to evaluate the real-world effectiveness of belimumab for the treatment of SLE.

METHODS: A literature search following PRISMA Guidelines and limited to studies in English was performed (2014-2020) to identify relevant studies reporting effectiveness outcomes of belimumab in patients with SLE. A modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess study quality. Outcomes, including SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) score, prednisone-equivalent use, and SLE flare were pooled and analyzed using statistical aggregation methods.

RESULTS: The literature search identified 514 articles for initial review. Of these, 17 articles were suitable for data extraction and summary. Baseline characteristics of patients in real-world studies were generally similar to those of relevant clinical trials, including age, sex, disease duration, SLEDAI score, and prednisone-equivalent use. Real-world use of belimumab was associated with reductions in SLEDAI score (mean baseline score to month 6: 10.1-4.4; 57% reduction), prednisone-equivalent dosing (mean baseline dose to month 6: 12.1 mg/day to 6.9 mg/day; 43% reduction), and flare frequency (12 months prior to belimumab to 12 months after belimumab: 1.15-0.39 mean flares per patient per year; 66% reduction). Long-term data (up to 2 years post-treatment initiation) for SLEDAI score and prednisone-equivalent dose indicated that improvements in both outcomes continue over time among patients remaining on therapy.

CONCLUSIONS: In the real-world setting, observed outcomes with belimumab for the treatment of SLE are consistent with those reported from randomized clinical trials. Improvements persist long-term for SLEDAI activity and prednisone-equivalent use with belimumab.

PMID:35596922 | DOI:10.1007/s40744-022-00454-9

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A Deep Learning-Based Automatic Collateral Assessment in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

Transl Stroke Res. 2022 May 21. doi: 10.1007/s12975-022-01036-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to develop a supervised deep learning (DL) model for grading collateral status from dynamic susceptibility contrast magnetic resonance perfusion (DSC-MRP) images from patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and compare its performance against experts’ manual grading. Among consecutive LVO-AIS at three medical center sites, DSC-MRP data were processed to generate collateral flow maps consisting of arterial, capillary, and venous phases. With the use of expert readings as a reference, a DL model was developed to analyze collateral status with output classified into good and poor grades. The resulting model was externally validated in a later-collected population from one medical center site. The model was trained on 255 patients and externally validated on 72 patients. In the all-site internal validation population, DL grading of good collateral probability yielded a c statistic of 0.91; in the external validation population, the c statistic was 0.85. In the external validation population, there was moderate agreement between the experts’ grades and DL grades (kappa = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.32-0.73, p < 0.0001). Day 7 infarct growth volume was higher in DL-graded poor collateral group than good collateral group patients (median volume [26 mL vs. 6 mL], p = 0.01) in patients with successful reperfusion (modified treatment in cerebral infarction (mTICI) = 2b-3). In all patients with a 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score, there was a shift to more favorable outcomes in the good collateral group, with a common odds ratio of 2.99 (95% CI = 1.89-4.76, p < 0.0001). The DL-based collateral grading was in good agreement with expert manual grading in both development and validation populations. After exclusion of patients with large infarct volume, early reperfusion is more likely to benefit patients with the poor collateral flow, and the DL method has the potential to aid the assessment of collateral status.

PMID:35596910 | DOI:10.1007/s12975-022-01036-1