Nevin Manimala

J Med Virol. 2022 Feb 11. doi: 10.1002/jmv.27661. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Many people want to know when the COVID-19 pandemic will end and life will return to normal. This question is highly elusive and distinct predictions have been proposed. In this study, the global mortality and case fatality rate of COVID-19 were analyzed using the nonlinear regression. The analysis showed that the COVID-19 pandemic could terminate in 2022, but COVID-19 could be one or two times more deadly than seasonal influenza by 2023. The prediction considered the possibility of emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and was supported by the features of the Omicron variant and other facts. Since the herd immunity against COVID-19 established through natural infections and mass vaccination is distinct among countries, COVID-19 could be more or less deadly in some countries in the coming years than the prediction. Although the future of COVID-19 will have multiple possibilities, this statistics-based prediction could aid to make proper decisions and establish an example on prediction of infectious diseases. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID:35150458 | DOI:10.1002/jmv.27661

Int J Health Plann Manage. 2022 Feb 12. doi: 10.1002/hpm.3427. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is one of the most detrimental pandemics that affected the humanity throughout the ages. The irregular historical progression of the virus over the first year of the pandemic was accompanied with far-reaching health and social damages. To prepare logistically against this worsening disaster, many public authorities around the world had set up screening and forecasting studies. This article aims to analyse the time-frequency co-evolution of the number of confirmed cases (NCC) in Tunisia and the related number of performed polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests over the COVID-19 first year. Accurately predicting such a relationship allows Tunisian authorities to set up an effective health prevention plan.

STUDY DESIGN: In order to keep pace with the speed of evolution of the virus, we used uninterrupted daily time series from the Tunisian Ministry of Public Health (TMPH) recorded over the COVID-19 first year. The objective is to: (1) analyse the time-frequency progress of the NCC in relationship with the number of PCR tests, (2) identify a multi-scale two-factor stochastic model in order to develop a robust bivariate forecasting technique.

METHODS: We assume a bivariate stochastic process which is projected onto a set of wavelet sub-spaces to investigate the scale-by-scale co-evolvement the NCC/PCR over the COVID-19 first year. A wavelet-based multiresolutional causality test is then performed.

RESULTS: The main results recommend the rejection of the null hypothesis of no instantaneous causality in both directions, while the statistics of the Granger test suggest failing to reject the null hypothesis of non-causality. However, by proceeding scale-by-scale, the Granger causality is proven significant in both directions over varying frequency bands.

CONCLUSIONS: It is important to include the NCC and PCR variables in any time series model intended to predict one of these variables. Such a bivariate and multi-scale model is supposed to better predict the needs of the public health sector in screening tests. On this basis, testing campaigns with multiple periodicities can be planned by the Tunisian authorities.

PMID:35150453 | DOI:10.1002/hpm.3427

World J Pediatr. 2022 Feb 12. doi: 10.1007/s12519-021-00502-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Early post-traumatic seizures (EPTS) refer to epileptic seizures occurring within one week after brain injury. This study aimed to define the risk factors of EPTS and the protective factors that could prevent its occurrence.

METHODS: This is a single-center retrospective study in the PICU, Beijing Children’s Hospital. Patients diagnosed with traumatic brain injury (TBI), admitted with and without EPTS between January 2016 and December 2020 were included in the study.

RESULTS: We included 108 patients diagnosed with TBI. The overall EPTS incidence was 33.98% (35/108). The correlation between EPTS and depressed fractures is positive (P = 0.023). Positive correlations between EPTS and intracranial hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage had been established (P = 0.011and P = 0.004, respectively). The detection rates of EPTS in the electroencephalogram (EEG) monitoring was 80.00%. There was a significant difference in the EEG monitoring rate between the two groups (P = 0.041). Forty-one (37.86%, 41/108) post-neurosurgical patients were treated with prophylactic antiepileptic drugs (AEDs), and eight (19.51%, 8/41) still had seizures. No statistical significance was noted between the two groups in terms of prophylactic AEDs use (P = 0.519). Logistic regression analysis revealed that open craniocerebral injury and fever on admission were risk factors for EPTS, whereas, surgical intervention and use of hypertonic saline were associated with not developing EPTS.

CONCLUSIONS: Breakthrough EPTS occurred after severe TBI in 33.98% of pediatric cases in our cohort. This is a higher seizure incidence than that reported previously. Patients with fever on admission and open craniocerebral injuries are more likely to develop EPTS.

PMID:35150398 | DOI:10.1007/s12519-021-00502-4

Curr Psychiatry Rep. 2022 Feb 12. doi: 10.1007/s11920-022-01316-5. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Suicide risk assessment is a challenge in clinical practice. Implicit measures may present with advantages with respect to explicit methods, and therefore may be useful for the assessment of suicide risk. We conducted a systematic review of 2 databases (PubMed and EMBASE) about implicit tests that measure suicide risk to explore their validity and reliability.

RECENT FINDINGS: Initial research revealed 321 articles. After the selection process, 31 articles were included in the review. The most death-related implicit cognition test used was the Death/Suicide Implicit association test (D/S IAT), followed by the Suicide Stroop Task. The Suicide Affect Misattribution Procedure (S-AMP) and the Death version of the Implicit Relational Assessment Procedure (D-IRAP) were also used. We found that the measures reviewed were generally valid for the assessment of past and future suicidal thoughts and behaviors, with statistically significant results regarding retrospective and prospective associations.

PMID:35150387 | DOI:10.1007/s11920-022-01316-5

Health Econ Rev. 2022 Feb 12;12(1):13. doi: 10.1186/s13561-022-00357-z.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Despite the focus of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) to bridge healthcare utilisation gap among women in Ghana, recent evidence indicates that most maternal deaths still occur from rural Ghana. The objective of this study was to examine the rural-urban differences in the effects of NHIS enrolment on delivery care utilisation (place of delivery and assistance at delivery) and antenatal care services among Ghanaian women.

METHODS: A nationally representative sample of 4169 women from the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey was used. Out of this sample, 2880 women are enrolled in the NHIS with 1229 and 1651 being urban and rural dwellers, respectively. Multivariate logistic and negative binomial models were fitted as the main estimation techniques. In addition, the Propensity Score Matching technique was used to verify rural-urban differences.

RESULTS: At the national level, enrolment in NHIS was observed to increase delivery care utilisation and the number of ANC visits in Ghana. However, rural-urban differences in effects were pronounced: whereas rural women who are enrolled in the NHIS were more likely to utilise delivery care [delivery in a health facility (OR = 1.870; CI = 1.533-2.281) and assisted delivery by a medical professional (OR = 1.994; CI = 1.631-2.438)], and have a higher number of ANC visits (IRR = 1.158; CI = 1.110-1.208) than their counterparts who are not enrolled, urban women who are enrolled in the NHIS on the other hand, recorded statistically insignificant results compared to their counterparts not enrolled. The PSM results corroborated the rural-urban differences in effects.

CONCLUSION: The rural-urban differences in delivery and antenatal care utilisation are in favour of rural women enrolled in the NHIS. Given that poverty is endemic in rural Ghana, this positions the NHIS as a potential social equaliser in maternal health care utilisation especially in the context of developing countries by increasing access to delivery care services and the number of ANC visits.

PMID:35150373 | DOI:10.1186/s13561-022-00357-z

Neurol Sci. 2022 Feb 12. doi: 10.1007/s10072-022-05947-7. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological disorders with the incidence rate higher in developing states. It is a multifactorial ailment in which genetic diversity along with other factors plays an important role. The objective of this study was to assess the involvement of different risk factors including single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) present in GABRA1 (rs2279020) and GABRG2 (rs211037) genes with the susceptibility to epilepsy in the targeted population. Blood samples of 180 subjects were taken and genotyped through tetra-primer amplification refractory mutation system-polymerase chain reaction technique. The obtained demographic and genotypic data were analyzed through different statistical tools including χ² (chi-square) test and odds ratio. Parental consanguinity and family history of seizures were observed in a considerable number of cases of this study along with residency in industrial areas. But, no association of rs2279020 (χ² = 0.900, P = 0.638) and rs211037 (χ² = 0.045, P = 0.832) was observed with predisposition to epilepsy. However, GG genotype of rs2279020 was observed more in female cases as compared to male cases. Furthermore, TG haplotype was observed to be associated with the increased risk of developing epilepsy (χ² = 9.097; OR = 2.586; P = 0.002). Genetic models also showed no correlation of the targeted SNPs with the susceptibility to epilepsy. The outcomes of the present study suggested that neither rs211037 nor rs2279020 were associated with increased susceptibility to epilepsy in the targeted population.

PMID:35150350 | DOI:10.1007/s10072-022-05947-7

Environ Monit Assess. 2022 Feb 12;194(3):176. doi: 10.1007/s10661-022-09775-2.

ABSTRACT

Climate extremes are becoming more prevalent and hazardous as global climate change increases. The purpose of this study was to find out how often severe rainfall and temperature events occur, as well as the study area’s spatial vulnerability indexes to extremes of both indices. Thirty years of daily rainfall and temperature data from 10 national meteorological stations were used. Four rainfall and eight temperature extremes were extracted using Climpact2 software tools. These variables were calculated for standardized anomaly and vulnerability indices and mapped using ArcMap. The results showed that the spatial variation of climatic extremes in the study area was significantly varied. Avery high rainfall (R95P) and extremely high rainfall (R99P) were widely experienced in the study area’s west-south, but in the southeast, similar trends were rare. R95P had a statistically significant growing trend, but R99P did not. The warmest night temperature (TNx) event was widely observed in the east, southeast, and northwest, but the coldest night temperature (TNn) was only found in the eastern part. Extremely cold daytime temperatures (TXn) were more prevalent in the south and southeast of the study area, whereas extremely warm daytime temperatures (TXx) were more prevalent in the north. The number of dry spells (CDD), R95P, R99P, cold spells at night (TN10P), warm spells at night (TN90P), cold spells during the day (TX10P), and warm spells during the day (TX10P) frequency bell curves were skewed to the left side of the histogram. This suggests that the distribution of the variables was not symmetrical due to the fact that the negative anomaly frequencies of the variables were higher than the positive ones. The results of the spatial vulnerability study show that all provinces were vulnerable to the combined effects of climatic extremes, with scores ranging from 0.20 to 0.8, with none of them vulnerable and extremely vulnerable areas. Omo-Nada and Chora-Botor were particularly sensitive to climate change with an average score of 0.61. Only 12 of the 27 severe climate indexes were taken into account in this study, and the remaining 15 extreme indices will have to be investigated further.

PMID:35150331 | DOI:10.1007/s10661-022-09775-2

Nurs Health Sci. 2022 Feb 12. doi: 10.1111/nhs.12929. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The public debate surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine is especially intense regarding pregnant women, who are concerned with its effects on themselves and their fetus, and a vulnerable at-risk population for psychological distress. We aimed at describing differences in vaccination status between Jewish and Arab pregnant women, and understanding factors contributing to psychological distress among Arab women. Pregnant women (n = 860) aged 19-46 completed self-report questionnaires during the national vaccination program (March-April 2021). The questionnaires related to background, COVID-19-related vaccination status and intentions in this regard, COVID-19-related anxiety, and the Mental Health Inventory-Short Form. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t and chi-square tests, Pearson correlations, and a hierarchical regression. Considerably fewer Jewish women had been infected and more were vaccinated than Arab women. Poorer health, lower economic status, being a mother, not being vaccinated, and higher anxiety over economic damage, a family member being infected, delivery, and raising the baby contributed to higher distress. Findings offer novel insights for nurses in their efforts to encourage vaccination, highlighting the need to understand women’s concerns during the vulnerable period of pregnancy. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID:35150201 | DOI:10.1111/nhs.12929

J Cosmet Dermatol. 2022 Feb 12. doi: 10.1111/jocd.14841. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of intense pulsed light (IPL) and ablative 2.940 nm erbium-doped yttrium aluminum garnet (Er: YAG) laser on dynamic changes in collagen by quantitative analysis of type I collagen (Col I) and type III collagen (Col III), transforming growth factor (TGF) and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) in the dermis of rabbits.

METHODS: Backs of ten rabbits were divided into four treatment areas: IPL normal energy group, IPL high energy group, erbium laser normal energy group and erbium laser high energy group. HE staining was performed immediately after the first treatment and two weeks after the first treatment. Col I, Col III, TGF-β1 and MMP-1 were collected by real-time PCR at baseline, 2 weeks after each session and three months after the entire treatment monthly.

RESULTS: HE staining showed that collagen fibers in the superficial layer of the dermis in the four treatment groups were increased and thickened to different degrees. Real-time PCR showed that statistically differences were noted in each checkpoint before and after treatments in the four groups, whereas no significant difference in the change in the four biomarkers was found among the four treatment groups.

CONCLUSION: Both the IPL and Er:YAG laser can effectively upregulate collagens, but in this experiment, there was no significant difference in the therapeutic effect among the four irradiation groups. Moreover, the high energy level group tended to bring more serious epidermal injury.

PMID:35150199 | DOI:10.1111/jocd.14841