Nevin Manimala

J R Soc Interface. 2022 May;19(190):20210781. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0781. Epub 2022 May 4.

ABSTRACT

Face masks do not completely prevent transmission of respiratory infections, but masked individuals are likely to inhale fewer infectious particles. If smaller infectious doses tend to yield milder infections, yet ultimately induce similar levels of immunity, then masking could reduce the prevalence of severe disease even if the total number of infections is unaffected. It has been suggested that this effect of masking is analogous to the pre-vaccination practice of variolation for smallpox, whereby susceptible individuals were intentionally infected with small doses of live virus (and often acquired immunity without severe disease). We present a simple epidemiological model in which mask-induced variolation causes milder infections, potentially with lower transmission rate and/or different duration. We derive relationships between the effectiveness of mask-induced variolation and important epidemiological metrics (the basic reproduction number and initial epidemic growth rate, and the peak prevalence, attack rate and equilibrium prevalence of severe infections). We illustrate our results using parameter estimates for the original SARS-CoV-2 wild-type virus, as well as the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants. Our results suggest that if variolation is a genuine side-effect of masking, then the importance of face masks as a tool for reducing healthcare burdens from COVID-19 may be under-appreciated.

PMID:35506215 | DOI:10.1098/rsif.2021.0781

J R Soc Interface. 2022 May;19(190):20220041. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2022.0041. Epub 2022 May 4.

ABSTRACT

The establishment of young organisms in harsh environments often requires a window of opportunity (WoO). That is, a short time window in which environmental conditions drop long enough below the hostile average level, giving the organism time to develop tolerance and transition into stable existence. It has been suggested that this kind of establishment dynamics is a noise-induced transition between two alternate states. Understanding how temporal variability (i.e. noise) in environmental conditions affects establishment of organisms is therefore key, yet not well understood or included explicitly in the WoO framework. In this paper, we develop a coherent theoretical framework for understanding when the WoO open or close based on simple dichotomous environmental variation. We reveal that understanding of the intrinsic timescales of both the developing organism and the environment is fundamental to predict if organisms can or cannot establish. These insights have allowed us to develop statistical laws for predicting establishment probabilities based on the period and variance of the fluctuations in naturally variable environments. Based on this framework, we now get a clear understanding of how changes in the timing and magnitude of climate variability or management can mediate establishment chances.

PMID:35506213 | DOI:10.1098/rsif.2022.0041

Pharmacol Res Perspect. 2022 Jun;10(3):e00953. doi: 10.1002/prp2.953.

ABSTRACT

Studies assume that up to 30% of home care recipients are exposed to a possible medication error. For the home care sector, the study situation regarding such errors is limited. The aim of the study was to find out how often medication errors occur and whether they are related to training, quality assurance measures (use of the double-check principle (DCP)), and other structural conditions of home care services. A cross-sectional study was conducted, comprising 485 fully trained nurses of 107 randomly selected home care services. Potential influencing factors were analyzed in a multiple logistic regression model. Of 485 fully qualified nurses, 41.6% reported medication errors within a 12-month period, while 14.8% did not answer this question. Nurses who had attended medication training within the last 2 years compared to a longer period (frequently to rather rarely applied DCP); the odds ratio of not making medication-related errors was 1.79[1.42-3.09] (OR 3.13; [1.88-5.20]). Years of professional experience, amount of patients per shift, and type of work contract (full/part-time) were not statistically significantly associated with reported medication errors. Medication-related errors occur frequently in home care. Regular training and adequate quality management measures increase patient safety. Nursing managers and other responsible individuals of home care institutions have to make sure that nursing staff take part in regular medication training and apply the DCP when they give out medication in home care.

PMID:35506209 | DOI:10.1002/prp2.953

Clin Exp Optom. 2022 May 3:1-11. doi: 10.1080/08164622.2022.2062222. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Keratoconus is a complex and multifactorial disease and its exact aetiology remains unknown. This current study examined the important environmental risk factors and their association with keratoconus. This study was registered in the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of systematic reviews under registration number CRD42021256792 in 2021. Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and Cochrane CENTRAL databases were searched for all relevant articles published from 1 January 1900 to 31 July 2021. National Institutes of Health Quality Assessment Tool was used to assess the methodological quality of the studies. The assessment for statistical heterogeneity was assessed using the Z-statistics on RevMan v5.4. P-value of <0.05 was considered as statistically significant and I² < 25% as homogenous. Thirty studies were included in this meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratio was calculated with 95% CI. The pooled odds ratio (OR) of eye rubbing, atopy, asthma, and eczema was 3.64 (95% CI, 2.02, 6.57), 1.90 (95% CI, 1.22, 2.94), 1.36 (95% CI, 1.15, 1.61) and 1.90 (95% CI, 1.22, 2.94), respectively. The OR for diabetes was 0.86 (95% CI 0.73, 1.02), and use of sunglasses, contact lens, allergic conjunctivitis, side sleep position and prone sleep position was 0.40 (95% CI, 0.16, 0.99), 1.68 (0.70, 4.00), 2.24 (95% CI, 0.68, 7.36), 3.81 (95% CI, 0.31, 46.23), 12.76 (95% CI, 0.27, 598.58), respectively. Twenty studies were considered to be of high quality, nine to be moderate and one to be low. Environmental risk factors have been identified to play a role in the susceptibility of keratoconus. However, further large-scale longitudinal studies are needed to understand the mechanisms between environmental risk factors and keratoconus.

PMID:35504720 | DOI:10.1080/08164622.2022.2062222

BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care. 2022 May;10(3):e002736. doi: 10.1136/bmjdrc-2021-002736.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: ‘Healthier You’, the National Health Service (NHS) diabetes prevention programme (DPP) offers adults in England at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) an evidence-based behavioral intervention to prevent or delay T2DM onset. This study assesses the impact of a pilot digital stream of the DPP (DDPP) on glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and weight.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A service evaluation employing prospectively collected data in a prospective cohort design in nine NHS local pilot areas across England. Participants were adults with non-diabetic hyperglycemia (NDH) (HbA1c 42-47 mmol/mol or fasting plasma glucose 5.5-6.9 mmol/L) in the 12 months prior to referral. The DDPP comprised five digital health interventions (DHI). Joint primary outcomes were changes in HbA1c and weight between baseline and 12 months. HbA1c and weight readings were recorded at referral (baseline) by general practices, and then at 12-month postregistration. Demographic data and service variables were collected from the DHI providers.

RESULTS: 3623 participants with NDH registered for the DDPP and of these, 2734 (75%) were eligible for inclusion in the analyses. Final (12-month) follow-up data for HbA1c were available for 1799 (50%) and for weight 1817 (50%) of registered participants. Mean change at 12 months was -3.1 (-3.4 to -2.8) kg, p<0.001 for weight and -1.6 (-1.8 to -1.4) mmol/mol, p<0.001 for HbA1c. Access to peer support and a website and telephone service was associated with significantly greater reductions in HbA1c and weight.

CONCLUSIONS: Participation in the DDPP was associated with clinically significant reductions in weight and HbA1c. Digital diabetes prevention can be an effective and wide-reaching component of a population-based approach to addressing type 2 diabetes prevention.

PMID:35504697 | DOI:10.1136/bmjdrc-2021-002736

BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care. 2022 May;10(3):e002727. doi: 10.1136/bmjdrc-2021-002727.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: We investigated trends in the proportion of diabetes treatment and glycemic control, which may be altered by recent advances in insulin and non-insulin drugs, in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A serial cross-sectional study was performed using a multicenter large-population database from the Japan Diabetes Clinical Data Management study group. Patients with type 2 diabetes who attended clinics belonging to the study group between 2002 and 2018 were included to examine trends in glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) by treatment group using multivariable non-linear regression model.

RESULTS: The proportion of patients with insulin only decreased from 15.0% to 3.6%, patients with insulin+non-insulin drugs increased from 8.1% to 15.1%, patients with non-insulin drugs increased from 50.8% to 67.0%, and those with no drugs decreased from 26.1% to 14.4% from 2002 to 2018, respectively. The HbA1c levels of each group, except for no drugs, continued to decrease until 2014 (unadjusted mean HbA1c (%) from 2002 to 2014: from 7.89 to 7.45 for insulin only, from 8.09 to 7.63 for insulin+non-insulin, and from 7.51 to 6.98 for non-insulin) and remained unchanged thereafter. Among insulin-treated patients, use of human insulin decreased, use of long-acting analog insulin increased, and concomitant use of non-insulin drugs increased (from 35.1% in 2002 to 80.9% in 2018), which included increased use of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors, and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists, and the persistently high use of metformin.

CONCLUSIONS: During the past two decades, combined use of insulin and non-insulin drugs increased and glycemic control improved and leveled off after 2014 in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes. Further studies of the trend in association with age and factors related to metabolic syndrome are necessary to investigate strategies aiming at personalized medicine in diabetes care.

PMID:35504696 | DOI:10.1136/bmjdrc-2021-002727

Pediatr Dermatol. 2022 May 3. doi: 10.1111/pde.15015. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Guidelines and expert recommendations on infantile hemangiomas (IH) are aimed at increasing homogeneity in clinical decisions based on the risk of sequelae.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to analyze the inter- and intra-observer agreement among pediatric dermatologists in the choice of treatment for IH.

METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional inter-rater and intra-rater agreement study within the Spanish infantile hemangioma registry. Twenty-seven pediatric dermatologists were invited to participate in a survey with 50 clinical vignettes randomly selected within the registry. Each vignette contained a picture of an infantile hemangioma with a clinical description. Raters chose therapy among observation, topical timolol, or oral propranolol. The same survey reordered was completed 1 month later to assess intra-rater agreement. Vignettes were stratified into hemangioma risk categories following the Spanish consensus on IH. The agreement was measured using kappa statistics appropriate for the type of data (Gwet’s AC₁ coefficient and Gwet’s paired t test).

RESULTS: Twenty-four dermatologists completed the survey. Vignettes represented 7.8% of the Spanish hemangioma registry. The inter-rater agreement on the treatment decision was fair (AC₁ = 0.39, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.30-0.47). When stratified by risk category, good agreement was reached for high-risk hemangiomas (AC₁ = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.51-1.00), whereas for intermediate- and low-risk categories, the agreement was only fair (AC₁ 0.31, 95% CI: 0.16-0.46 and AC₁ = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.27-0.48, respectively). Propranolol was the main option for high-risk hemangiomas (86.4%), timolol for intermediate-risk (36.8%), and observation for low-risk ones (55.9%). The intra-rater agreement was good. The inter-rater agreement between pediatric dermatologists on the treatment of IH is only fair. Variability was most significant with intermediate- and low-risk hemangiomas.

PMID:35504688 | DOI:10.1111/pde.15015

Radiologia (Engl Ed). 2022 Mar-Apr;64(2):119-127. doi: 10.1016/j.rxeng.2021.09.009.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic spread throughout the world from the beginning of 2020, increasing healthcare professionals’ workloads and levels of physical and emotional stress.

AIMS: To determine the prevalence of burnout syndrome in Spanish radiologists during the COVID-19 pandemic and the factors associated with the development of this syndrome, and to compare these findings with those obtained before the pandemic.

METHODS: This observation study took place between April 2020 and August 2020 (during the pandemic) through an online survey. A total of 150 responses were obtained. Demographic and work-related information was compiled. Burnout syndrome was measured with the Maslach Burnout Inventory Human Services Survey (MBI-HSS). The prevalence and characteristics of burnout syndrome obtained in this survey were compared with those of the same survey done in 2019. We performed a statistical analysis to identify possible risk factors and protective factors associated with this syndrome and to determine the homogeneity of the two samples.

RESULTS: The prevalence of burnout syndrome increased during the COVID-19 pandemic (49.3% vs. 33.6%, p = 0.002). No risk factors or protective factors that were valid both before and after the pandemic were identified. No correlations were identified between sociodemographic or work-related characteristics and burnout syndrome.

CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that burnout syndrome increased significantly in radiologists during the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting nearly half of all those who responded to the survey. These results underline the need to assess support for professional wellbeing of radiologists in Spain. No correlations were identified between burnout and gender, age, number of calls, years in the job, annual income, teaching, marital status, number of children, or type of contract.

PMID:35504677 | DOI:10.1016/j.rxeng.2021.09.009

Radiologia (Engl Ed). 2022 Mar-Apr;64(2):103-109. doi: 10.1016/j.rxeng.2020.04.009.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To determine the safety and efficacy of angioplasty with a retrievable stent in treating vasospasm secondary to subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) due to an aneurysm.

METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed prospectively collected data from consecutive patients undergoing endovascular angioplasty with a retrievable stent to treat vasospasm related to SAH due to an aneurysm in four neurointerventional radiology departments between January 2018 and July 2019. We included patients aged >18 years with vasospasm >50% of the internal carotid artery (ICA), anterior cerebral artery (ACA), and / or middle cerebral artery (MCA) secondary to SAH due to an aneurysm treated with endovascular angioplasty with a retrievable stent. The variables used to measure safety were complications of the procedure and clinical complications. The variables used to measure radiological efficacy were improvement in the degree of stenosis after endovascular treatment and improvement or normalization of cerebral circulation time CTT).

RESULTS: We included 16 angioplasty procedures with retrievable stents in 13 patients, in which 33 arterial segments were treated (10 ICA, 15 MCA, and 8 ACA). We observed no complications of the procedure in any patients and no clinical complications in patients who were not intubated. All but one of the patients who had delayed CTT at the beginning of the procedure showed improvements in CTT. The mean improvement in the degree of stenosis was 18% ± 11.65% in the ICA, 30.67% ± 18.45% in the MCA, and 28.38% ± 15.49% in the ACA. No statistically significant associations were observed between endovascular treatment variables and the degree of improvement in stenosis.

CONCLUSION: Angioplasty with a retrievable stent is a safe and efficacious treatment for vasospasm secondary to SAH due to an aneurysm, improving CTT and stenosis.

PMID:35504675 | DOI:10.1016/j.rxeng.2020.04.009

BMJ. 2022 May 3;377:e070113. doi: 10.1136/bmj-2021-070113.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To provide considerations for reporting and interpretation that can improve assessment of the credibility of exploratory analyses in aetiologic research.

DESIGN: Mini-review of the literature and account of exploratory research principles.

SETTING: This study focuses on a particular type of causal research, namely aetiologic studies, which investigate the causal effect of one or multiple risk factors on a particular health outcome or disease. The mini review included aetiologic research articles published in four epidemiology journals in the first issue of 2021: American Journal of Epidemiology, Epidemiology, European Journal of Epidemiology, and International Journal of Epidemiology, specifically focusing on observational studies of causal risk factors of diseases.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of exposure-outcome associations reported, grouped by type of analysis (main, sensitivity, and additional).

RESULTS: The journal articles reported many exposure-outcome associations: a mean number of 33 (range 1-120) exposure-outcome associations for the primary analysis, 30 (0-336) for sensitivity analyses, and 163 (0-1467) for additional analyses. Six considerations were discussed that are important in assessing the credibility of exploratory analyses: research problem, protocol, statistical criteria, interpretation of findings, completeness of reporting, and effect of exploratory findings on future causal research.

CONCLUSIONS: Based on this mini-review, exploratory analyses in aetiologic research were not always reported properly. Six considerations for reporting of exploratory analyses in aetiologic research were provided to stimulate a discussion about their preferred handling and reporting. Researchers should take responsibility for the results of exploratory analyses by clearly reporting their exploratory nature and specifying which findings should be investigated in future research and how.

PMID:35504648 | DOI:10.1136/bmj-2021-070113