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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Older driver at-fault crashes at unsignalized intersections in Alabama: Injury severity analysis with supporting evidence from a deep learning based approach

J Safety Res. 2023 Jun;85:419-428. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.04.009. Epub 2023 Apr 27.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The research described in this paper explored the factors contributing to the injury severity resulting from the male and female older driver (65 years and older) at-fault crashes at unsignalized intersections in Alabama.

METHOD: Random parameter logit models of injury severity were estimated. The estimated models identified a variety of statistically significant factors influencing the injury severities resulting from older driver at-fault crashes.

RESULTS: According to these models, some variables were found to be significant only in one model (male or female) but not in the other one. For example, variables such as driver under the influence of alcohol/drugs, horizontal curve, and stop sign were found significant only in the male model. On the other hand, variables such as intersection approaches on tangents with flat grade, and driver older than 75 years were found significant only in the female model. In addition, variables such as making turning maneuver, freeway-ramp junction, high speed approach, and so forth were found significant in both models. Estimation findings showed that two parameters in the male model and another two parameters in the female model could be modeled as random parameters, indicating their varying influences on the injury severity due to unobserved effects. In addition to the random parameter logit approach, a deep learning approach based on Artificial Neural Networks was introduced to predict the outcome of the crashes based on 164 variables that are listed in the crash database. The artificial intelligence (AI)-based method achieved an accuracy of 76% indicating the role of the variables in deciding the final outcome.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Future plans are set to study the use of AI on large sized datasets to achieve a relatively high-performance, and hence to be able to identify which variables contribute the most to the final outcome.

PMID:37330891 | DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2023.04.009

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Exploring the association between quantified road safety target attributes and their success: An empirical analysis from OECD countries using panel data

J Safety Res. 2023 Jun;85:296-307. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.03.003. Epub 2023 Mar 17.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Setting quantified road safety targets has been recognized as a best practice to eliminate road fatalities by international organizations such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Previous studies have examined the relationship between setting quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction. However, little attention has been paid to the association between the targets’ characteristics and their successes under certain socioeconomic conditions.

METHOD: This study aims to fill this gap by identifying the quantified road safety targets that are the most achievable. Specifically, using panel data on the OECD countries’ quantified road safety targets, this study develops a fixed effects model to determine the specific characteristics (i.e., target duration and level of ambition) of an optimal target to make it as achievable as possible for OECD countries.

RESULTS: The study finds that a significant association exists between target duration, level of ambition, and target achievement, with targets that have lower levels of ambition having higher achievements. Moreover, different groups of OECD countries carry different characteristics (e.g., target duration) that concern their most achievable targets.

CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that, in terms of duration and level of ambition, OECD countries’ target setting should establish their own socioeconomic development conditions. This provides government officials, policymakers, and practitioners with useful references for the future quantified road safety target settings that are the most likely to be achieved.

PMID:37330879 | DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2023.03.003

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Traffic violator school masked convictions: California finally got it right

J Safety Res. 2023 Jun;85:287-295. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.03.002. Epub 2023 Mar 22.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The negative traffic safety impact of California’s prior traffic violator school (TVS) citation dismissal policy is well documented in past California TVS evaluations.

METHOD: Using advanced inferential statistical techniques, the current study evaluated the substantive changes to California’s traffic violator school program as required by California Assembly Bill (AB) 2499. The program changes implemented by AB 2499 appear to be associated with a specific deterrent effect as evidenced by a reliable and statistically significant reduction in subsequent traffic crashes of those receiving a masked TVS conviction as opposed to a countable conviction.

RESULTS: The results suggest that this relationship exists primarily among TVS drivers with less elevated prior records. The change in status from a TVS citation dismissal to a TVS masked conviction has reduced the negative traffic safety impact of the TVS citation dismissal policy in effect prior to the implementation of AB 2499. Several recommendations are offered to enhance the positive traffic safety impact of the TVS program by further combining its educational elements with the state’s post license control program by way of the Negligent Operator Treatment System.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: The findings and recommendations have implications to all states and jurisdictions utilizing pre-conviction diversion programs and/or demerit point systems associated with traffic violations.

PMID:37330878 | DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2023.03.002

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

PPE non-compliance among construction workers: An assessment of contributing factors utilizing fuzzy theory

J Safety Res. 2023 Jun;85:242-253. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.02.008. Epub 2023 Feb 18.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Construction practitioners are at a disproportionately higher risk of fatal and nonfatal injuries compared to practitioners from other industries. The absence of and inappropriate use of personal protective equipment (PPE), hereinafter referred to as PPE non-compliance, are major causes of fatal and nonfatal injuries at construction workplaces.

METHOD: Accordingly, a robust 4-step research methodology was employed to investigate and assess factors that contribute to PPE non-compliance. As a result, 16 factors were identified utilizing literature review and ranked utilizing fuzzy set theory and K-means clustering. Top among them: inadequate safety supervision, poor risk perception, lack of climate adaptation, lack of safety training, and lack of management support.

RESULTS: Managing construction safety in a proactive manner is vital to eliminate or minimize construction hazards and improve overall site safety. Thus, proactive measures to address these 16 factors were identified utilizing a focus group methodology. The validation of the statistical findings with that of the focus groups of industry professionals provides validation of the findings as both practical and actionable.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: This study significantly contributes to construction safety knowledge and practice which, in turn, aids academic researchers and construction practitioners in their continuous efforts to reduce fatal and nonfatal injuries among construction workers.

PMID:37330874 | DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2023.02.008

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

How do driving behavior and attitudes toward road safety vary between developed and developing countries? Evidence from Iran and the Netherlands

J Safety Res. 2023 Jun;85:210-221. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.02.005. Epub 2023 Feb 16.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The rates of road traffic injuries and fatalities in developing countries are significantly higher than in developed countries. This study examines the differences in driving behavior, road safety attitudes, and driving habits between a developed country (the Netherlands) and a developing country (Iran), which bear major differences in terms of crash involvement per population.

METHOD: In this context, this study assesses the statistical association of crash involvement with errors, lapses, aggressive driving incidents, and non-compliance with traffic rules, attitudes, and habits. Structural equation modeling was used to evaluate data obtained from 1,440 questionnaires (720 samples for each group).

RESULTS: The results revealed that more insecure attitudes toward traffic-regulation observance, negative driving habits, and risky behaviors, such as traffic rule violations act as influential factors of crash involvement. Iranian participants showed a greater likelihood to get involved in violations and driving habits with a higher level of risk. In addition, lower levels of safety attitudes toward traffic-regulation observance were observed. On the other hand, Dutch drivers were more likely to report lapses and errors. Dutch drivers also reported safer behavior in terms of unwillingness to engage in risky behaviors such as violations (speeding and no-overtaking). The structural equation models for crash involvement based on behaviors, attitudes, and driving habits were also evaluated for their accuracy and statistical fit using relevant indicators.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Finally, the findings of the present study point out the need for extensive research in some areas to foster policies that can effectively enhance safer driving.

PMID:37330871 | DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2023.02.005

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Product-related injury morbidity among Americans aged 0-19 years, 2001-2020

J Safety Res. 2023 Jun;85:192-199. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.02.003. Epub 2023 Feb 13.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: This study examined changes in product-related injury morbidity among under-20 Americans between 2001 and 2020.

METHOD: Product-related injury morbidity data came from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS). Using age-standardized morbidity rates, the authors performed Joinpoint regression models to identify time periods with significant changes between 2001 and 2020 and quantified the annual magnitude of morbidity changes with annual percent changes (APCs) in rates and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS: Age-standardized product-related injury morbidity declined consistently among under-20 Americans from 2001 to 2020 (from 7449.3 to 4023.5 per 100,000 persons; APC = -1.5 %, 95 % CI: -2.3 %, -0.7 %), with the most striking morbidity drop in 2019-2020 (-1576.8 per 100,000 persons). Sports and recreation equipment and home were the most common product and location, respectively, for nonfatal pediatric product-related injuries. Large morbidity differences and varying spectrum by product and by occurring location existed across sex and age groups.

CONCLUSIONS: Product-related injury morbidity declined significantly among under-20 Americans between 2001 and 2020, but large variations remained across sex and age groups.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Further research is recommended to understand causal factors contributing to the observed decrease in product-related injury morbidity over the past 20 years and to understand product-related injury morbidity disparities across sex and age groups. Understanding of causal factors could lead to implementation of additional interventions to reduce product-related injury among children and adolescents.

PMID:37330869 | DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2023.02.003

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Modeling spatiotemporal interactions in single-vehicle crash severity by road types

J Safety Res. 2023 Jun;85:157-171. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.01.015. Epub 2023 Feb 8.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Spatiotemporal correlations have been widely recognized in single-vehicle (SV) crash severity analysis. However, the interactions between them are rarely explored. The current research proposed a spatiotemporal interaction logit (STI-logit) model to regression SV crash severity using observations in Shandong, China.

METHOD: Two representative regression patterns-mixture component and Gaussian conditional autoregression (CAR)-were employed separately to characterize the spatiotemporal interactions. Two existing statistical techniques-spatiotemporal logit and random parameters logit-were also calibrated and compared with the proposed approach with the aim of highlighting the best one. In addition, three road types-arterial road, secondary road, and branch road-were modeled separately to clarify the variable influence of contributors on crash severity.

RESULTS: The calibration results indicate that the STI-logit model outperforms other crash models, highlighting that comprehensively accommodating spatiotemporal correlations and their interactions is a recommended crash modeling approach. Additionally, the STI-logit using mixture component fits crash observations better than that using Gaussian CAR and this finding remains stable across road types, suggesting that simultaneously accommodating stable and unstable spatiotemporal risk patterns can further strengthen model fit. According to the significance of risk factors, there is a significant positive correlation between distracted diving, drunk driving, motorcycle, dark (without street lighting), and collision with fixed object and serious SV crashes. Truck and collision with pedestrian significantly mitigate the likelihood of serious SV crashes. Interestingly, the coefficient of roadside hard barrier is significant and positive in branch road model, but it is not significant in arterial road model and secondary road model.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: These findings provide a superior modeling framework and various significant contributors, which are beneficial for mitigating the risk of serious crashes.

PMID:37330866 | DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2023.01.015

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Caregiver accounts of unintentional childhood injury events in rural Uganda

J Safety Res. 2023 Jun;85:101-113. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2023.01.010. Epub 2023 Feb 3.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Complex environmental, social, and individual factors contribute to unintentional childhood injury events. Understanding context-specific antecedents and caregiver attributions of childhood injury events can inform the development of locally-targeted interventions to reduce injury risk in rural Uganda.

METHODS: Fifty-six Ugandan caregivers were recruited through primary schools and completed qualitative interviews regarding 86 unintentional childhood injury events. Descriptive statistics summarized injury characteristics, child location and activity, and supervision at time of injury. Qualitative analyses informed by grounded theory identified caregiver attributions of injury causes and caregiver actions to reduce injury risk.

RESULTS: Cuts, falls, and burns were the most common injuries reported. At the time of injury, the most common child activities were farming and playing and the most common child locations were the farm and kitchen. Most children were unsupervised. In cases where supervision was provided, the supervisor was typically distracted. Caregivers most often attributed injuries to child risk-taking but also identified social, environmental, and chance factors. Caregivers most often made efforts to reduce injury risk by teaching children safety rules, but also reported efforts to improve supervision, remove hazards, and implement environmental safeguards.

CONCLUSION: Unintentional childhood injuries have a significant impact on injured children and their families, and caregivers are motivated to reduce child injury risk. Caregivers frequently perceive child decision-making a primary factor in injury events and respond by teaching children safety rules. Rural communities in Uganda and elsewhere may face unique hazards associated with agricultural labor, contributing to a high risk of cuts. Interventions to support caregiver efforts to reduce child injury risk are warranted.

PMID:37330860 | DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2023.01.010

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Integrative analysis of the effects of organic and conventional farming methods on peanut based on transcriptome and metabolomics

Food Res Int. 2023 Sep;171:113065. doi: 10.1016/j.foodres.2023.113065. Epub 2023 May 29.

ABSTRACT

To elucidate the nutritional quality of peanut under different farming methods, we selected two cultivars, “jihua13” and “jihua4”, to grow in organic and conventional environments, respectively. After harvest, we measured physiological parameters and differential metabolites. Metabolomics showed that most of the amino acids, carbohydrates, and secondary metabolites in organically grown jihua4 were downregulated, which was completely the opposite in jihua13. Fatty acids associated with heart disease and hypertension are reduced in organically grown peanuts. In particular, the highly statistically significant tryptophan betaine seems to be used as a reference to distinguish between organic and conventional cultivation. Mechanisms leading to differences in crop chemical composition are explained by transcriptome analysis. The results of the transcriptome analysis indicated that organic cultivation largely affects the synthesis of amino acids and carbohydrates in jihua13. Combined analysis of transcriptome and metabolomics found that variety jihua13 is more sensitive to farming methods and produces more unsaturated fatty acids than jihua4.

PMID:37330858 | DOI:10.1016/j.foodres.2023.113065

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A geographical origin assessment of Italian hazelnuts: Gas chromatography-ion mobility spectrometry coupled with multivariate statistical analysis and data fusion approach

Food Res Int. 2023 Sep;171:113085. doi: 10.1016/j.foodres.2023.113085. Epub 2023 Jun 4.

ABSTRACT

Hazelnut is a commodity that has gained interest in the food science community concerning its authenticity. The quality of the Italian hazelnuts is guaranteed by Protected Designation of Origin and Protected Geographical Indication certificates. However, due to their modest availability and the high price, fraudulent producers/suppliers blend, or even substitute, Italian hazelnuts with others from different countries, having a lower price, and often a lower quality. To contrast or prevent these illegal activities, the present work investigated the application of the Gas Chromatography-Ion mobility spectrometry (GC-IMS) technique on the hazelnut chain (fresh, roasted, and paste of hazelnuts). The raw data obtained were handled and elaborated using two different ways, software for statistical analysis, and a programming language. In both cases, Principal Component Analysis and Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis models were exploited, to study how the Volatile Organic Profiles of Italian, Turkish, Georgian, and Azerbaijani products differ. A prediction set was extrapolated from the training set, for a preliminary models’ evaluation, then an external validation set, containing blended samples, was analysed. Both approaches highlighted an interesting class separation and good model parameters (accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, F1-score). Moreover, a data fusion approach with a complementary methodology, sensory analysis, was achieved, to estimate the performance enhancement of the statistical models, considering more discriminant variables and integrating at the same time further information correlated to quality aspects. GC-IMS could be a key player as a rapid, direct, cost-effective strategy to face authenticity issues regarding the hazelnut chain.

PMID:37330839 | DOI:10.1016/j.foodres.2023.113085