Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Scrutinizing different predictive modeling validation methodologies and data-partitioning strategies: new insights using groundwater modeling case study

Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Jun 17;196(7):623. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-12794-w.

ABSTRACT

Groundwater salinity is a critical factor affecting water quality and ecosystem health, with implications for various sectors including agriculture, industry, and public health. Hence, the reliability and accuracy of groundwater salinity predictive models are paramount for effective decision-making in managing groundwater resources. This pioneering study presents the validation of a predictive model aimed at forecasting groundwater salinity levels using three different validation methods and various data partitioning strategies. This study tests three different data validation methodologies with different data-partitioning strategies while developing a group method of data handling (GMDH)-based model for predicting groundwater salinity concentrations in a coastal aquifer system. The three different methods are the hold-out strategy (last and random selection), k-fold cross-validation, and the leave-one-out method. In addition, various combinations of data-partitioning strategies are also used while using these three validation methodologies. The prediction model’s validation results are assessed using various statistical indices such as root mean square error (RMSE), means squared error (MSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The results indicate that for monitoring wells 1, 2, and 3, the hold-out (random) with 40% data partitioning strategy gave the most accurate predictive model in terms of RMSE statistical indices. Also, the results suggested that the GMDH-based models behave differently with different validation methodologies and data-partitioning strategies giving better salinity predictive capabilities. In general, the results justify that various model validation methodologies and data-partitioning strategies yield different results due to their inherent differences in how they partition the data, assess model performance, and handle sources of bias and variance. Therefore, it is important to use them in conjunction to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the groundwater salinity prediction model’s behavior and performance.

PMID:38880864 | DOI:10.1007/s10661-024-12794-w

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Treatment of oral graft-versus-host disease with intraoral nbUVB phototherapy

Support Care Cancer. 2024 Jun 17;32(7):438. doi: 10.1007/s00520-024-08642-9.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: There are limited treatment options available for hematopoietic stem-cell transplant patients (HSCT) with oral graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Intraoral phototherapy is a novel, yet promising therapeutic regimen.

RESEARCH QUESTION: To assess the safety and effectiveness of intraoral narrowband UVB (nbUVB) phototherapy in the treatment of oral GVHD.

METHODS: This case series evaluated 10 patients with refractory oral GVHD, who were treated at Northwestern Memorial Hospital with nbUVB between July 2019 and October 2023. Primary outcomes were to evaluate the safety and efficacy of phototherapy. Efficacy was measured by objective improvement in symptom scores and subjective improvement in patient reported symptoms. Safety was determined by the withdrawal due to adverse events. Total nbUVB exposure, number of treatments, and change in systemic immunosuppressive medications were also examined.

RESULTS: The study cohort comprised 10 patients who developed oral GVHD at a median of 9.5 months after HSCT. The total median dose of nbUVB was 36 J/cm2, and the median number of sessions was 55. All 10 patients demonstrated some degree of improvement in symptoms. Notably, there was a reduction in the number of patients who reported symptoms of oral pain (83%), bleeding (67%), xerostomia (50%), and oral sensitivity (78%) after initiating phototherapy. There was also a statistically significant decrease in the levels of pain, erythema, and edema (p ≤ 0.001, < 0.001, 0.01, respectively). Most patients tolerated phototherapy well, but 1 patient withdrew from treatment due to adverse effects. Seventy-five percent of patients who were on immunosuppressive medications were able to decrease or stop these medications.

CONCLUSION: This case series suggests that nbUVB phototherapy is well tolerated and efficacious in patients with oral GVHD.

PMID:38880860 | DOI:10.1007/s00520-024-08642-9

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Influence of elastomeric and steel ligatures on periodontal health during fixed appliance orthodontic treatment: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Prog Orthod. 2024 Jun 17;25(1):24. doi: 10.1186/s40510-024-00520-8.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Metallic and elastomeric ligatures are widely used in orthodontics to secure the archwire within the bracket slots, but elastomeric ligatures have traditionally been associated with increased microbial colonization, which could adversely affect periodontal health.

AIM: This systematic review compares the periodontal effects of elastomeric and steel ligatures used for orthodontic fixed appliances.

METHODS: Unrestricted literature search of 7 databases (MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Virtual Health Library) up to July 2023 were performed for randomized / non-randomized clinical studies on humans comparing the two ligation methods during fixed-appliance therapy. After duplicate study selection, data extraction, and risk-of-bias assessment with the Risk of Bias (RoB) 2 or the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies – of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool, random-effects meta-analyses of Mean Differences (MD) or Standardized Mean Differences (SMD) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were carried out, followed by assessment of certainty of existing evidence with the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

RESULTS: A total of 11 studies (3 randomized / 8 non-randomized) with 354 patients (mean age 14.7 years and 42% male) were included. No statistically significant differences were seen for plaque index (5 studies; SMD = 0.48; 95% CI = -0.03 to 1.00; P = 0.07), gingival index (2 studies; MD = 0.01; 95% CI = -0.14 to 0.16; P = 0.89), probing pocket depth (2 studies; MD = 0; 95% CI = -0.17 to 0.16; P = 0.97), or Streptococcus mutans counts (4 studies; SMD = 0.40; 95% CI=-0.41 to 1.20; P = 0.21). Elastomeric ligatures were associated with moderately increased total bacterial load (3 studies; SMD = 0.43; 95% CI = 0.10 to 0.76; P = 0.03). Confidence in these estimates was low in all instances due to the inclusion of non-randomized studies with high risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS: Existing low quality evidence indicates that ligature method does not seem to influence the periodontal health during fixed treatment, even if elastomeric ligatures are associated with a moderate increase of bacterial load.

REGISTRATION: PROSPERO (CRD42023444383).

PMID:38880839 | DOI:10.1186/s40510-024-00520-8

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Extended phase space thermodynamics of regular-AdS black hole

Sci Rep. 2024 Jun 16;14(1):13875. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-62645-4.

ABSTRACT

After obtaining an exact regular-AdS black hole resulting from the coupling of general relativity with nonlinear electrodynamics (NED), we explore the thermodynamics of the extended phase space, treating the cosmological constant ( Λ ) as the pressure (P) of the black holes and its conjugate as thermodynamic volume (V). Considering the NED parameter (g), we investigate the Hawking temperature, entropy, Gibb’s free energy and specific heat at the horizon radius. Due to the presence of NED charge, the black hole exhibits van der Waals-like phase transition instead of Hawking-Page phase transition, which could be observed through the G T plots, which display a swallowtail pattern below the critical pressure, and it gives rise to second-order phase transitions when pressure attains its critical value. The first-order phase transition shares similarities with the liquid-gas phase transition. We determine the exact critical points and explore the influence of NED on P V criticality, revealing that the isotherms undergo a liquid-gas-like phase transition for temperatures below its critical value T C , especially at lower T C . The identical critical exponent to that of the van der Waals fluid suggests that the NED does not alter the critical exponents, as observed in other arbitrary AdS black holes.

PMID:38880829 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-024-62645-4

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

T1 mapping from routine 3D T1-weighted inversion recovery sequences in clinical practice: comparison against reference inversion recovery fast field echo T1 scans and feasibility in multiple sclerosis

Neuroradiology. 2024 Jun 17. doi: 10.1007/s00234-024-03400-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Quantitative T1 mapping can be an essential tool for assessing tissue injury in multiple sclerosis (MS). We introduce T1-REQUIRE, a method that converts a single high-resolution anatomical 3D T1-weighted Turbo Field Echo (3DT1TFE) scan into a parametric T1 map that could be used for quantitative assessment of tissue damage. We present the accuracy and feasibility of this method in MS.

METHODS: 14 subjects with relapsing-remitting MS and 10 healthy subjects were examined. T1 maps were generated from 3DT1TFE images using T1-REQUIRE, which estimates T1 values using MR signal equations and internal tissue reference T1 values. Estimated T1 of lesions, white, and gray matter regions were compared with reference Inversion-Recovery Fast Field Echo T1 values and analyzed via correlation and Bland-Altman (BA) statistics.

RESULTS: 159 T1-weighted (T1W) hypointense MS lesions and 288 gray matter regions were examined. T1 values for MS lesions showed a Pearson’s correlation of r = 0.81 (p < 0.000), R2 = 0.65, and Bias = 4.18%. BA statistics showed a mean difference of -53.95 ms and limits of agreement (LOA) of -344.20 and 236.30 ms. Non-lesional normal-appearing white matter had a correlation coefficient of r = 0.82 (p < 0.000), R2 = 0.67, Bias = 8.78%, mean difference of 73.87 ms, and LOA of -55.67 and 203.41 ms.

CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the feasibility of retroactively derived high-resolution T1 maps from routinely acquired anatomical images, which could be used to quantify tissue pathology in MS. The results of this study will set the stage for testing this method in larger clinical studies for examining MS disease activity and progression.

PMID:38880824 | DOI:10.1007/s00234-024-03400-4

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Genotypic and phenotypic characteristics of sodium channel-associated epilepsy in Chinese population

J Hum Genet. 2024 Jun 17. doi: 10.1038/s10038-024-01257-2. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Variants in voltage-gated sodium channel (VGSC) genes are implicated in seizures, epilepsy, and neurodevelopmental disorders, constituting a significant aspect of hereditary epilepsy in the Chinese population. Through retrospective analysis utilizing next-generation sequencing (NGS), we examined the genotypes and phenotypes of VGSC-related epilepsy cases from a cohort of 691 epilepsy subjects. Our findings revealed that 5.1% of subjects harbored VGSC variants, specifically 22 with SCN1A, 9 with SCN2A, 1 with SCN8A, and 3 with SCN1B variants; no SCN3A variants were detected. Among these, 14 variants were previously reported, while 21 were newly identified. SCN1A variant carriers predominantly presented with Dravet Syndrome (DS) and Genetic Epilepsy with Febrile Seizures Plus (GEFS + ), featuring a heightened sensitivity to fever-induced seizures. Statistically significant disparities emerged between the SCN1A-DS and SCN1A-GEFS+ groups concerning seizure onset and genetic diagnosis age, incidence of status epilepticus, mental retardation, anti-seizure medication (ASM) responsiveness, and familial history. Notably, subjects with SCN1A variants affecting the protein’s pore region experienced more frequent cluster seizures. All SCN2A variants were of de novo origin, and 88.9% of individuals with SCN2A variations exhibited cluster seizures. This research reveals a significant association between variations in VGSC-related genes and the clinical phenotype diversity of epilepsy subjects in China, emphasizing the pivotal role of NGS screening in establishing accurate disease diagnoses and guiding the selection of ASM.

PMID:38880818 | DOI:10.1038/s10038-024-01257-2

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

External validation of the modified CTP score based on ammonia to predict survival in patients with cirrhosis after TIPS placement

Sci Rep. 2024 Jun 16;14(1):13886. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-64793-z.

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to perform the first external validation of the modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh score based on plasma ammonia (aCTP) and compare it with other risk scoring systems to predict survival in patients with cirrhosis after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement. We retrospectively reviewed 473 patients from three cohorts between January 2016 and June 2022 and compared the aCTP score with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and sodium MELD (MELD-Na) in predicting transplant-free survival by the concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curve. The median follow-up time was 29 months, during which a total of 62 (20.74%) patients died or underwent liver transplantation. The survival curves for the three aCTP grades differed significantly. Patients with aCTP grade C had a shorter expected lifespan than patients with aCTP grades A and B (P < 0.0001). The aCTP score showed the best discriminative performance using the C-index compared with other scores at each time point during follow-up, it also showed better calibration in the calibration plot and the lowest Brier scores, and it also showed a higher net benefit than the other scores in the DCA curve. The aCTP score outperformed the other risk scores in predicting survival after TIPS placement in patients with cirrhosis and may be useful for risk stratification and survival prediction.

PMID:38880817 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-024-64793-z

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Outcomes among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease after recovery from COVID-19 infection of different severity

Sci Rep. 2024 Jun 16;14(1):13881. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-64670-9.

ABSTRACT

While studies have suggested increased risks of severe COVID-19 infection in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the persistent and delayed consequences of COVID-19 infection on patients with COPD upon recovery remain unknown. A prospective clinical study was conducted in Hong Kong to investigate the persistent and delayed outcomes of patients with COPD who had COVID-19 infection of different severity (mild-moderate COVID-19 and severe COVID-19), compared with those who did not. Chinese patients with COPD ≥ 40 years old were recruited from March to September 2021. They were prospectively followed up for 24.9 ± 5.0 months until 31st August 2023. The primary outcome was the deterioration in COPD control defined as the change in mMRC dyspnea scale. The secondary outcomes included the change in exacerbation frequency and non-COVID-19 respiratory mortality (including death from COPD exacerbation or bacterial pneumonia). 328 patients were included in the analysis. Patients with mild-moderate and severe COVID-19 infection had statistically significant increased risks of worsening of mMRC dyspnoea scale by increase in 1 score from baseline to follow-up with adjusted odds ratios of 4.44 (95% CI = 1.95-10.15, p < 0.001) and 6.77 (95% CI = 2.08-22.00, p = 0.001) respectively. Patients with severe COVID-19 infection had significantly increased risks of increase in severe COPD exacerbation frequency with adjusted odds ratios of 4.73 (95% CI = 1.55-14.41, p = 0.006) non-COVID-19 respiratory mortality from COPD exacerbation or pneumonia with adjusted hazard ratio of 11.25 (95% CI = 2.98-42.45, p < 0.001). After recovery from COVID-19, worsening of COPD control from worsening of dyspnea, increase in severe exacerbation frequency to non-COVID-19 respiratory mortality (COPD exacerbation and pneumonia) was observed among patients with severe COVID-19. Mild to moderate COVID-19 was also associated with symptomatic deterioration.

PMID:38880813 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-024-64670-9

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Geographical disparities in access to surgical treatment and mortality rates from abdominal aortic aneurysms in Brazil: A retrospective longitudinal study

Vasc Med. 2024 Jun 11:1358863X241253732. doi: 10.1177/1358863X241253732. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a growing public health problem, and not all patients have access to surgery when needed. This study aimed to analyze spatiotemporal variations in AAA mortality and surgical procedures in Brazilian intermediate geographic regions and explore the impact of different surgical techniques on operative mortality.

METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to evaluate AAA mortality from 2008 to 2020 using space-time cube (STC) analysis and the emerging hot spot analysis tool through the Getis-Ord Gi* method.

RESULTS: There were 34,255 deaths due to AAA, 13,075 surgeries to repair AAA, and a surgical mortality of 14.92%. STC analysis revealed an increase in AAA mortality rates (trend statistic = +1.7693, p = 0.0769) and a significant reduction in AAA surgery rates (trend statistic = -3.8436, p = 0.0001). Analysis of emerging hotspots revealed high AAA mortality rates in the South, Southeast, and Central-West, with a reduction in procedures in São Paulo and Minas Gerais States (Southeast). In the Northeast, there were extensive areas of increasing mortality rates and decreasing procedure rates (cold spots).

CONCLUSION: AAA mortality increased in several regions of the country while surgery rates decreased, demonstrating the need for implementing public health policies to increase the availability of surgical procedures, particularly in less developed regions with limited access to services.

PMID:38860442 | DOI:10.1177/1358863X241253732

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

High Frequency of Ancestral Haplotype A of Fatty Acid Desaturase Genes in the Yakut Population

Genet Test Mol Biomarkers. 2024 Jun 11. doi: 10.1089/gtmb.2024.0085. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Aims: The purpose of this study was to study the correlation of the body weight of Yakuts with the variability of polymorphisms rs174537, rs174546 and rs3834458 of the FADS1 – FADS2 region to identify the connection of certain genotypes with obesity. Materials and Methods: For genotyping, classical methods of PCR-RFLP analysis were used. A sample of 446 DNA samples from Yakut volunteers without chronic diseases (143 women and 303 men) was studied. Results: The predominance of the ancestral alleles of SNPs rs174537, rs174546 and rs3834458 was established in all of our studied groups. Analysis of the odds ratio of allele and genotype frequencies in patients with normal BMI, high BMI and obesity did not show statistically significant values. We did not find an association between rs174537, rs174546 and rs3834458 with obesity, but we did not take into account the diet of the subjects, which may have had a stronger effect on BMI. Analysis of pairwise linkage disequilibrium and assessment of haplotypes for 3 SNPs in the FADS1 and FADS2 genes showed strong linkage of all three SNPs to each other (r2 = 0.93-0.96). Conclusions: According to the result of genotyping of SNP rs174537, the frequency of haplotype A in the Yakut population was 0.76 and, in comparison with other world data, is quite high. Which in turn is associated with lower conversion of short-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid to long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid. Accordingly, a shift in nutrition towards more plant foods can negatively impact the health of the Yakuts. At the moment, the exact dosage of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) for humans has not yet been established, but judging by the fact that all recommendations are mainly made on the basis of European populations, in connection with the results of the study, the Yakuts have a particularly high need for PUFAs.

PMID:38860387 | DOI:10.1089/gtmb.2024.0085