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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Weak persistence and extinction of a stochastic epidemic model with distributed delay and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

Adv Contin Discret Model. 2025;2025(1):114. doi: 10.1186/s13662-025-03972-2. Epub 2025 Jul 21.

ABSTRACT

A stochastic distributed delay epidemic model with Markovian switching and Allee effect is constructed, where the infectious disease transmission rate follows a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Hybrid dynamic effects of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and Lévy jumps on infectious disease transmission are discussed. Stochastically, the ultimate boundedness of the positive solution is investigated. The existence of a unique global positive solution is studied. By constructing appropriate stochastic Lyapunov functionals, sufficient conditions for weak persistence of the infected population are investigated. The existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution is discussed based on Hasminskii’s ergodic theory. Sufficient conditions for the extinction of infectious disease are discussed. Numerical simulations are carried out to show consistency with the theoretical analysis.

PMID:40704180 | PMC:PMC12279583 | DOI:10.1186/s13662-025-03972-2

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Residual-based multivariate exponentially weighted moving average control chart for statistical process control of water quality in Surabaya city utilizing generative adversarial network

MethodsX. 2025 Jul 12;15:103504. doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2025.103504. eCollection 2025 Dec.

ABSTRACT

This study proposes novel framework to enhance statistical process control (SPC) of water quality by addressing the pervasive issue of autocorrelation in time-series data. We investigate the characteristics of pH, turbidity, and KMnO₄ in Surabaya city’s water, revealing significant autocorrelation that compromises statistical independence assumption crucial for reliable SPC. To overcome this, Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) model was developed to generate decorrelated residual time-series. The efficacy of GAN model in reducing autocorrelation was quantitatively validated, achieving Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0054, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.0738, and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.0556. Subsequently, these GAN-derived residuals were integrated into Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) control chart for process monitoring. Phase I analysis detected 33 out-of-control signals; after identifying and removing outliers, process was brought under statistical control with no further out-of-control signals detected. However, subsequent Phase II online monitoring detected eight statistically significant out-of-control signals, indicating a potential loss of process stability over time. Our findings underscore the significant utility of GAN-based residual analysis as a robust strategy for mitigating autocorrelation effects in environmental water quality data. This approach leads to improved process monitoring and enables early anomaly detection, crucial for proactive water quality management.

PMID:40704177 | PMC:PMC12284534 | DOI:10.1016/j.mex.2025.103504

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The utilization of a novel Outpatient Appropriateness Fragility Score to predict inpatient stay following biportal lumbar endoscopic decompression

N Am Spine Soc J. 2025 Jun 18;23:100752. doi: 10.1016/j.xnsj.2025.100752. eCollection 2025 Sep.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Biportal endoscopic spine surgery offers advantages such as reduced postoperative pain and faster recovery, often enabling same-day discharge. However, the patient-specific factors influencing the need for inpatient admission remain unclear. This study evaluates variables contributing to overnight stays following biportal lumbar endoscopic decompression and proposes a predictive fragility score.

METHODS: A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data was conducted on 84 consecutive patients undergoing one- or two-level lumbar endoscopic decompression at a single U.S. academic center. Patients with trauma, tumor, infection, or revision procedures were excluded. Cohorts were divided by discharge status: same-day discharge (outpatient) versus one or more night hospital stay (inpatient). A novel fragility score (4-21 points) incorporating age, body mass index (BMI), comorbidities, and procedure type was developed. Sarcopenia was assessed using the psoas muscle index (PMI), defined as the ratio of psoas to vertebral cross-sectional area on preoperative imaging. Cutoff values were analyzed via Youden’s J statistic and receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS: Same-day discharge patients were significantly younger (55.3 vs. 68.5 years; p=.0003) and had lower American Society of Anesthesiologists (2.0 vs. 2.7; p<.0001) and Charlson Comorbidity Index scores (1.6 vs. 3.5; p<.0001). No significant BMI difference was observed (p=.4341). Outpatients more frequently underwent discectomy; inpatients more commonly received ULBD and two-level decompression (p<.0001, p=.0014). A fragility score ≥11 predicted inpatient stay with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.810, outperforming Modified 5-Item Frailty Index (AUC 0.640). PMI did not differ between groups (p=.6732), with AUCs of 0.417 overall, and 0.482 (males), 0.487 (females). Fragility score and PMI were weakly correlated (r=-0.130).

CONCLUSIONS: The proposed Outpatient Appropriateness Fragility Score effectively predicts inpatient admission after biportal lumbar decompression. Factors such as age, comorbidities, and surgical extent are more predictive than BMI or sarcopenia. This tool may guide preoperative planning and optimize resource utilization.

PMID:40704166 | PMC:PMC12284479 | DOI:10.1016/j.xnsj.2025.100752

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Mother-Hatchling Isotopic Relationship in Green Turtle: Isotopic Niche-based Modelling

Zool Stud. 2024 Nov 11;63:e31. doi: 10.6620/ZS.2024.63-31. eCollection 2024.

ABSTRACT

The isotopic discrimination between a mother and her hatchlings has been modelled in various vertebrates, including sea turtles. In addition to the linear relation between δ13C and δ15N isotope values of the mother – hatchling couple, there is missing data on the combined effects of both isotopes, which represent ecological niches of a species. The stable δ13C and δ15N isotope signatures of live hatchlings and their mother’s epidermis tissues were used in green turtles. The samples were taken from three main breeding beaches, Akyatan, Sugözü and Samandağ in Türkiye during the 2020 nesting season. δ15N and δ13C values of hatchlings were not significantly different from those of mothers. Significant relationships were found between hatchlings and their mothers in terms of δ13C value. Furthermore, when the hatchling isotopic niche size is known, the condition probabilities of estimating the mother’s isotopic niche size were 85.16% and 92.88% with the 0.95 and 0.99 alpha levels. In addition to showing a linear relationship between hatchlings and their mother’s single isotopic composition, the current study offers a novel insight that proposes a niche overlap concept using two isotopes to comprehend the mother-hatchling relationship of green turtles living in the eastern Mediterranean.

PMID:40704152 | PMC:PMC12284403 | DOI:10.6620/ZS.2024.63-31

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Epigenomic preconditioning of peripheral monocytes determines their transcriptional response to the tumor microenvironment

Genome Med. 2025 Jul 23;17(1):82. doi: 10.1186/s13073-025-01511-y.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Monocytes are recruited to tumors and undergo transcriptional reprogramming resulting in tumor-promoting functions. Epigenomic features, such as post-translational modification of histones and chromatin accessibility, are key determinants of transcription factor binding and thereby play an important role in controlling transcriptional responses to the tissue environment. It remains unknown whether systemic tumor-associated signals could alter the epigenomic landscape of peripheral monocytes before they reach the tumor, thus shaping their subsequent response to the tumor microenvironment.

METHODS: We used a combination of genome-wide assays for chromatin accessibility and multiple histone modifications (H3K4me1, H3K4me3, H3K27ac) in a mouse tumor model to investigate changes in the epigenomic landscape of peripheral monocytes. We then integrated these epigenomic data with transcriptomic data to link altered regulatory elements to gene expression changes in monocytes occurring in the periphery or during tumor infiltration.

RESULTS: We found that tumor-induced systemic inflammation was associated with transcriptional and epigenomic preconditioning of peripheral monocytes. The distal tumor caused extensive remodeling of both H3K4me3+ promoters and H3K4me1+ enhancers. Specifically, this involved the repression of interferon-responsive regulatory elements as well as the establishment of enhancers harboring binding motifs for transcription factor families downstream of pro-inflammatory signaling, such as C/EBP, AP-1, and STAT. Reprogrammed enhancers in peripheral monocytes were linked to sustained gene expression changes that persisted after tumor infiltration. In addition, key pro-tumor genes upregulated in tumor-infiltrating monocytes showed epigenetic priming already in the circulation.

CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that cancer-associated remodeling of the epigenomic landscape in peripheral monocytes can shape the gene expression programs they acquire in the tumor, highlighting the role of the epigenome in redirecting monocyte function to support cancer progression.

PMID:40702585 | DOI:10.1186/s13073-025-01511-y

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Social mobility beliefs moderate links between SSS, attributions for wealth and poverty, and aggression

BMC Psychol. 2025 Jul 23;13(1):820. doi: 10.1186/s40359-025-03138-5.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The aggressiveness of college students has attracted widespread attention due to its significant negative impact. Studies had found that subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) can influence individual aggression. However, few studies have explored the essential mechanisms and influencing factors behind. Thus, this study explores the relationship between SSS and aggression, also the roles of attributions for wealth and poverty and social mobility beliefs within this context.

METHODS: Study 1 manipulated the SSS of 270 participants (130 in the high SSS group, 140 in the low SSS group) experimentally to explore the mediating role of attributions for wealth and poverty on the impact of SSS on aggression. Study 2 manipulated the social mobility beliefs of another 270 participants (139 in high social mobility beliefs group, 131 in the low social mobility beliefs group) to examine the moderating effects of these beliefs. This study conducted descriptive statistical analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, mediation model test, and moderated mediation analysis on the obtained data using SPSS 20.0 and PROCESS v4.0.

RESULTS: (1) SSS significantly negatively predicted aggression (β = -0.37, t(268) = -2.75, p < 0.01). Attributions for wealth and poverty plays a mediating role in it, with a mediating effect value of -0.10, and the mediating effect accounts for 27.03% of the total effect. (2) Social mobility beliefs in SSS and attributions for wealth and poverty (β = 0.30, t(268) = 2.72, p < 0.01) and between SSS and aggressive (β = -0.25, t(268) = -2.11, p < 0.05) were the significant adjustment.

CONCLUSION: SSS can directly affect college students’ aggression and can also indirectly affect aggression through the mediating effect of attributions for wealth and poverty. The improvement of social mobility beliefs promotes college students’ attributions for wealth and poverty internally, thereby reducing their aggressiveness. These findings not only enrich the research on SSS and aggression, providing new insights for understanding the relationship between socioeconomic status differences and aggression, but also suggest that policymakers, school psychological service providers and school teachers need to pay attention to the social mobility beliefs of college students, create a fairer social environment and encourage them to view personal development with a more positive perspective.

PMID:40702583 | DOI:10.1186/s40359-025-03138-5

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The effects of air pollutants and meteorological factors on the occurrence and regression of coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease: a study combining case-control and cohort studies

Ital J Pediatr. 2025 Jul 23;51(1):241. doi: 10.1186/s13052-025-02065-w.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the effects of environmental factors on the occurrence and regression of coronary artery lesions (CAL) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD), intending to provide a scientific basis for the prevention, treatment, and long-term management of KD.

METHODS: We enrolled pediatric patients with KD hospitalized in the Pediatric Cardiovascular Department of a tertiary comprehensive hospital between June 2015 and December 2020 as research subjects. The medical record information of the children during hospitalization and follow-up was obtained by reviewing the hospital’s electronic medical record system. The air pollutants including CO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, SO2 and O3 were collected from the National Urban Air Quality Real-time Release Platform of the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre. The meteorological data were sourced from the China Meteorological Data Network, including the daily average temperature and the daily average relative humidity. We assessed the individual and combined effects of air pollutants and meteorological factors on CAL by Unconditional logistic regression and Bayesian kernel regression, respectively, and to explore their dose-response relationships. We estimated the overall time to regression of CAL by Kaplan-Meier, assessed the effects of air pollutants and meteorological factors on the regression of CAL by Cox proportional risk regression model, and evaluated the dose-response relationship by restricted cubic spline.

RESULTS: The OR for CAL formation in children with KD was 1.267 (95% CI: 1.060-1.514) for every 10 µg/m3 increase in SO2 concentration, and the risk of CAL formation gradually increased with increasing SO2 concentration (Poverall=0.027, Pnonlinear=0.329). The HR for regression of CAL in KD children was 0.387 (95% CI: 0.174-0.861) for each 1mg/m3 increase in CO concentration, and the likelihood of CAL regression gradually decreased with increasing air CO concentration (Poverall=0.030, Pnonlinear=0.182).

CONCLUSION: Atmospheric SO2 exposure was significantly associated with CAL occurrence in children with KD in this study, and there is a dose-response relationship. Atmospheric CO exposure was an independent risk factor preventing CAL regression in children with KD, and there was a dose-response relationship between atmospheric CO concentration and CAL regression. These findings indicate that relevant departments should take measures to strengthen the monitoring and control of environmental factors.

PMID:40702574 | DOI:10.1186/s13052-025-02065-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The effectiveness and safety of specific dietary supplements in modulating uric acid levels, oxidative stress, and lipid metabolism in patients: a network meta-analysis of 13 interventions

Nutr Metab (Lond). 2025 Jul 23;22(1):80. doi: 10.1186/s12986-025-00977-2.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Hyperuricemia and gout have garnered increasing attention as significant health concerns in recent years, often associated with damage to multiple bodily systems. Consequently, the reduction of uric acid levels has become particularly crucial. The utilization of dietary supplements presents potential adjunctive treatment options for individuals with gout. Certain dietary supplements are purported to aid in the reduction of uric acid levels and are highly preferred by patients due to their affordability, ease of use, and accessibility. The aim of this article was to compare the efficacy and safety of dietary supplements in modulating uric acid, oxidative stress, and lipid metabolism in patients with hyperuricemia or gout, using a comprehensive network meta-analysis (NMA) approach.

METHODOLOGY: A comprehensive search was performed across both Chinese and English databases to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examining the efficacy of dietary supplements in reducing uric acid levels. Network meta-analysis was conducted using Stata 16.0 software, while RevMan 5.3 software was employed to assess the quality of the literature and evaluate the risk of bias.

RESULT: A total of 30 RCTs, encompassing 44,972 patients, were conducted. The findings of the study indicated that folic acid (mean difference [MD] = -57.62 μmol/L, 95% confidence interval [CI] [-107.14, -8.1]) and probiotics (MD = -42.52 μmol/L, 95% CI [-81.95, -3.09]) significantly reduced uric acid levels compared to conventional therapy. Furthermore, Vitamin C (MD = -0.92 nmmol/ml, 95% CI [-1.54, -0.31]) and Vitamin E (MD = -1.05 nmmol/ml, 95% CI [-2.01, -0.1]) were effective in reducing oxidative stress-related malondialdehyde (MDA) levels. In terms of lipid metabolism improvement, DKB114 (MD = -0.45 mmol/L, 95% CI [-0.9, -0.001]) and curcumin (MD = -0.54 mmol/L, 95% CI [-0.89, -0.18]) demonstrated statistically significant reductions in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels. Analysis of subgroups revealed that administration of 500 mg of vitamin C resulted in a significant reduce in uric acid levels when compared to conventional treatment (MD = – 21.67 μmol/L, 95% CI [- 43.01, – 0.33]), indicating statistically significant differences. The safety profile of all dietary supplements has generally been demonstrated to be favorable.

CONCLUSION: Dietary supplements hold significant potential for managing gout and hyperuricemia, as well as improving patients’ metabolic status. Future research should focus on larger-scale studies to further explore these findings.

PMID:40702568 | DOI:10.1186/s12986-025-00977-2

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Effects of meglumine antimoniate and allopurinol treatment on the fecal microbiome profile in dogs with leishmaniosis

Anim Microbiome. 2025 Jul 23;7(1):78. doi: 10.1186/s42523-025-00447-3.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The combination of meglumine antimoniate and allopurinol is considered one of the most effective treatments for canine leishmaniosis caused by Leishmania infantum. This study investigated the effects of this treatment on the gut microbiome of 10 dogs from Spain, Portugal, and Italy via fecal shotgun metagenomic sequencing over six months.

METHODS: Dogs were sampled at baseline (BL), after one month of combined treatment with meglumine antimoniate and allopurinol (M1) and after six months of allopurinol treatment (M6). Fecal samples had their total DNA extracted and sequenced by Illumina sequencing. Posteriorly, a microbiome analysis was conducted to analyze bacterial abundance, diversity and enrichment.

RESULTS: The gut microbiome of Leishmania-infected dogs (BL) is dominated by Prevotella, Collinsella, Bacteroides, and Blautia, with individual variability being the primary determinant of microbiome composition. No significant changes in alpha diversity (Shannon index, gene number) or beta diversity (Bray-Curtis dissimilarity, UniFrac distance) were detected between pre- and post-treatment time points, suggesting that treatment with meglumine antimoniate and allopurinol does not disrupt the gut microbiota. Minor trends in taxonomic shifts were noted, with slight increases in Bifidobacterium pseudocantenulatum, Collinsella tanakaei, and Slackia piriformis after treatment, but these changes were not statistically significant after correction for multiple testing. Linear discriminant analysis and multivariable modeling confirmed that the microbial community structure was resilient to treatment effects. Individual-specific microbiome differences in diversity accounted for 52% of the observed variability, underscoring the personalized nature of the gut microbiota in dogs. Importantly, no adverse microbiome disruptions were detected, even with prolonged allopurinol use.

CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the robustness of the canine gut microbiome during antileishmanial therapy and highlights the use of meglumine antimoniate and allopurinol without compromising gut microbial diversity or health. Further studies with larger cohorts are recommended to confirm these findings and explore the functional roles of the gut microbiota in modulating immune responses in Leishmania-infected dogs.

PMID:40702553 | DOI:10.1186/s42523-025-00447-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Joint representation and visualization of derailed cell states with Decipher

Genome Biol. 2025 Jul 23;26(1):219. doi: 10.1186/s13059-025-03682-8.

ABSTRACT

Biological insights often depend on comparing conditions such as disease and health. Yet, we lack effective computational tools for integrating single-cell genomics data across conditions or characterizing transitions from normal to deviant cell states. Here, we present Decipher, a deep generative model that characterizes derailed cell-state trajectories. Decipher jointly models and visualizes gene expression and cell state from normal and perturbed single-cell RNA-seq data, revealing shared and disrupted dynamics. We demonstrate its superior performance across diverse contexts, including in pancreatitis with oncogene mutation, acute myeloid leukemia, and gastric cancer.

PMID:40702544 | DOI:10.1186/s13059-025-03682-8