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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Exploring affordable and effective pandemic containment measures in lower-income countries with a spatial SEIR model: a case study in South Africa

BMC Public Health. 2025 Jul 23;25(1):2526. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-23686-0.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerabilities of lower-income countries due to limited healthcare infrastructure and socioeconomic constraints, highlighting the need for effective containment measures that minimize socioeconomic costs and prepare for future pandemics alike, which are expected to become more frequent. Although prior studies have examined various strategies in these regions, a significant gap remains in quantitative research on affordable measures to combat the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, which greatly challenges effective measures for previous strains. Studies on targeted containment measures for Omicron have dramatically declined even in higher-income regions, and their findings could be much less applicable in lower-income regions due to substantial socioeconomic disparities.

METHODS: This study addresses this gap by focusing on South Africa. A spatial Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model was developed to simulate the virus spread during the country’s first Omicron wave from November 2021 to April 2022, integrating multisource statistics to overcome the typical scarcity of inter-city mobility data in lower-income countries. Three affordable containment measures were examined: (1) restricting inter-city mobility in epicenter provinces, while allowing nationwide intra-city movement for livelihood activities; (2) home isolation for positive cases, alongside quarantine for co-residents, accounting for high rates of asymptomatic cases, underreporting, and delays of self-isolation; and (3) prioritizing booster vaccinations for high-risk healthcare workers.

RESULTS: The findings indicate that restricting inter-city mobility in the epicenter Gauteng, which only accounted for 3.6% of national mobility, could reduce national infections by 15.0%. Quarantining households with positive cases could reduce infections by 10.9%, despite the high rates of asymptomatic cases and presymptomatic transmission. Prioritizing booster vaccinations was also effective when healthcare workers had a much higher infection risk than others. Meanwhile, these measures incurred minimal socioeconomic costs compared to earlier pandemic strategies. Additionally, the spatial variation of containment measure effectiveness suggests that timely implementation of these measures before the infection rate escalates is critical for ensuring their effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS: This research provides essential insights for lower-income countries to manage current and future pandemics within their economic and healthcare constraints, especially regarding targeted mobility restriction, quarantine, prioritized vaccination, and timing of containment measures.

PMID:40702473 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-025-23686-0

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Registered nurses’ experiences of community-based nursing in a Swedish context

BMC Nurs. 2025 Jul 23;24(1):965. doi: 10.1186/s12912-025-03636-2.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Community-based nursing today faces significant challenges regarding the future supply of healthcare professionals such as registered nurses. This may be due to numerous challenges, such as registered nurses being principally responsible for coordinating care and aligning with the transition to integrated person-centred care, which affects the work environment in community-based nursing. The work environment also affects career advancement prospects, personal motivations, and the desire to make a meaningful contribution to the quality of care. It is, therefore, essential to shed light on registered nurses’ experiences of their working situation within community-based nursing to identify factors that can create a better working situation.

AIM: To describe registered nurses’ experiences of the work situation in Swedish community-based nursing.

METHOD: The study employed a mixed-methods design. Data were collected through (a) a quantitative sample and (b) a qualitative sample of free-text answers to open-ended questions in the questionnaire. The quantitative material was analysed through descriptive statistics, and the qualitative material was analysed with deductive direct content analysis based on the Fundamental of Care framework’s three dimensions.

RESULTS: The overall experience in community-based nursing was that the registered nurse’s work situation within community-based nursing is influenced by factors such as lack of time and understaffing. Lack of time and understaffing affect the possibilities of creating a caring relationship, the integration of care and the context of care.

CONCLUSION: Registered nurses’ work situation within community-based nursing is influenced by factors such as lack of time and understaffing. Lack of time and understaffing affect the possibilities of creating a caring relationship with both the person being cared for and their next of kin. In comparison with continuity, good personal knowledge and presence are promoting factors to good caring relationships. The establishment of a care relationship, satisfying basic care and creating organisational conditions take place in collaboration and are the foundations for being able to work person-centred, which also are elements described in the Fundamental of Care framework.

PMID:40702471 | DOI:10.1186/s12912-025-03636-2

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Nurses’ personality traits and decision-making as factors related to missed nursing care: a structural equation modeling approach

BMC Nurs. 2025 Jul 23;24(1):966. doi: 10.1186/s12912-025-03632-6.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Missed nursing care (MNC) has compromised the quality of care provided, and patient safety and well-being. Given that internal aspects of nurses, such as personality traits and decision-making processes, influence the provision of care, this study aims to analyze the influence of nurses’ personality traits and decision-making on MNC.

METHODS: Quantitative cross-sectional descriptive-correlational study. A convenience sample of 296 nurses completed a questionnaire developed for this study consisting of the European Portuguese versions of the MISSCARE Survey, the Nursing Decision-Making Instrument (NDMI-PT), and the Ten-Item Personality Inventory (TIPI-P). Structural equation modeling was used to analyze the association between MNC, MNC-related factors, and nurses’ decision-making and personality traits.

RESULTS: A positive and statistically significant correlation was found between nurses’ personality traits and MNC-related factors and MNC (β = 0.14; p = 0.03; β = 0.27; p = 0.001, respectively). A negative, statistically significant correlation was found between nurses’ decision-making and MNC (β = -0.16; p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS: Given the direct influence of nurses’ personality traits and decision-making on MNC, nurse managers should implement training programs to promote personal and professional development, thus ensuring the quality of nursing care.

PMID:40702465 | DOI:10.1186/s12912-025-03632-6

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Effect of ivermectin on scabies: a retrospective evaluation

BMC Infect Dis. 2025 Jul 23;25(1):937. doi: 10.1186/s12879-025-11315-5.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study, aimed at determining the effect of ivermectin on scabies, which has recently reached epidemic proportions, was conducted by the Department of Dermatology and Venereology at Dicle University. The study aims to evaluate the success of ivermectin in the treatment of scabies, identify variables affecting this success, and contribute positively to the development of future national treatment protocols. Additionally, the study seeks to test the hypothesis that ivermectin, which is significantly easier to use in cases of failure with topical treatments, is a good first-line treatment option.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective study, 412 patients diagnosed with scabies via clinical examination by a specialist physician and recommended a 200 µg/kg dose of ivermectin at one-week intervals, who presented to Dicle University Dermatology and Venereology Clinic between January 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024, were examined. Fifty-two patients whose records lacked the parameters evaluated in the study were excluded. A total of 360 patients were included in the study. Data on children under five years of age, those weighing less than 15 kg, and pregnant or lactating women were not obtained due to insufficient information regarding oral ivermectin use in these groups. Data were evaluated with SPSS-21.0 statistical program and the value, mean, median value, standard deviation, incidence rate and frequency of each parameter in total patients were recorded. Associations were analysed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, dependent t test, Wilcoxon test, Pearson Chi-square (χ2) test, Yates Chi-square (χ2) test, Fisher Chi-square (χ2) test analysis, Mc-Nemar test, Pearson/spearman correlation analysis, logistic regression analysis. A p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS: The ivermectin treatments for all 360 patients were prescribed by a specialist physician, and 78.6% (283) of the patients benefited from the treatment. Of these 360 patients, 295 (81.94%) had tried at least one other treatment option before ivermectin and did not benefit from it, while 66.1% (43 out of 65) of those who had not previously undergone treatment benefited from ivermectin. Furthermore, 81.36% (240 out of 295) of patients who did not respond to previous treatments benefited from ivermectin.

CONCLUSION: This study concluded that ivermectin could be a significant treatment option for patients diagnosed with scabies. The superiority of appropriately dosed ivermectin treatment over other treatments was observed, particularly in patients resistant to other scabies treatments.

PMID:40702460 | DOI:10.1186/s12879-025-11315-5

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Effect of conventional gait model II variants on gait kinematics and kinetics

Gait Posture. 2025 Jul 17;122:190-198. doi: 10.1016/j.gaitpost.2025.07.320. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Conventional Gait Model II (CGM2) aims to address the limitations of the Conventional Gait Model (CGM) in a standardised way. Evidence supporting the use of CGM2 has come from independent studies within adult populations, which has hindered the uptake of the model by paediatric centres.

RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the effect of CGM2 model variants on gait kinematics and kinetics in a cohort of typically developing children?

METHODS: Secondary analysis of three-dimensional gait analysis data of thirty-two typically developing children. Gait kinematics and kinetics were reprocessed for each of the CGM2 model variants. These variants include the introduction of new hip joint centre equations, inverse kinematics, and marker clusters. Differences between kinematics and kinetics were compared using statistical parametric mapping 1D, and root mean squared difference (RMSD).

RESULTS: Differences were seen in kinematics and kinetics across all models, with the largest changes seen in the transverse plane for the hip, knee and ankle, with an average RMSD relative to CGM1.0 of 6.1°, 22.7°, and 9.9° respectively. All other gait variables had an average RMSD of less than 5° for kinematics, 0.1 Nm for moments, and 0.19 W for powers. Changes to the Gait Profile Score were less than 0.14° on average.

SIGNIFICANCE: The CGM2 model has addressed several known limitations by improving the hip joint centre locations, reducing the number of required anthropometric measures, and introducing inverse kinematics and cluster-based segment tracking. Our results highlight the importance of consistency in model variants and processing methods when comparing data.

PMID:40700788 | DOI:10.1016/j.gaitpost.2025.07.320

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Bochum Burn Survival (BoBS) score – A novel machine learning-based burn survival prediction score developed with data from the German Burn Registry

Burns. 2025 Jul 14;51(8):107614. doi: 10.1016/j.burns.2025.107614. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Burn mortality prediction remains a critical aspect in burn medicine. Established scores, such as the ABSI or Baux score, experience continuous revision and improvement due to advances in critical care and surgical procedures. However, these scores often rely on predefined variables and limited statistical models. This study aimed to create a new prediction score that is based solely on machine learning techniques and to assess its performance against established traditional scoring systems.

METHODS: Using different advanced machine learning methods, data from the German burn registry, encompassing over 10,000 cases, were analyzed regarding the most relevant factors concerning mortality and a new prediction score was created. A new prediction model was constructed, employing algorithms such as random forests and gradient boosting. Internal validation was conducted using cross-validation to ensure robustness and reproducibility.

RESULTS: The Bochum Burn Survival (BoBS) score demonstrates strong predictive performance with an accuracy of 93.1 % and ROC AUC of 92.4 %, therefore surpassing traditional scores in predictive performance. Factors such as TBSA and age showed the strongest correlation with mortality, while comorbidities and treatment-specific variables contributed to model refinement. However, further adjustments and external validation beyond the German Burn Registry are crucial in the future.

DISCUSSION: The BoBS score represents a paradigm shift in burn mortality prediction, leveraging the potential of machine learning to analyze complex, high-dimensional datasets. Compared to traditional models, the BoBS score offers improved accuracy while providing insights into underexplored variables that might impact patient outcomes. But challenges remain in integrating such models into clinical workflows and validating them across diverse populations.

CONCLUSION: This score represents a significant advancement in burn mortality prediction by providing an interpretable, machine learning-based scoring system developed using multicenter data from the German Burn Registry. Its application has the potential to enhance decision-making in burn care, marking a significant step forward in personalized medicine for critically injured burn patients.

PMID:40700784 | DOI:10.1016/j.burns.2025.107614

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Comparative biomechanical analysis of combined lower and middle trapezius tendon transfer vs. isolated lower trapezius tendon transfer in irreparable posterosuperior massive rotator cuff tears

Clin Biomech (Bristol). 2025 Jul 15;128:106621. doi: 10.1016/j.clinbiomech.2025.106621. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Posterosuperior massive rotator cuff tears remain challenging to manage. While lower trapezius transfer restores posterior cuff function, it lacks the superior cuff’s biomechanical role. Middle trapezius tendon transfer has shown efficacy in addressing superior cuff deficiencies with dynamic joint-centering and spacer effects. This study aimed to compare the biomechanical effects of lower trapezius transfer alone versus combined lower and middle trapezius transfer for posterosuperior massive rotator cuff tears.

METHODS: Eight cadaveric shoulders were tested under four conditions: intact, posterosuperior cuff tear, lower trapezius transfer, and combined lower and middle trapezius transfer. Superior translation, subacromial contact pressure, and rotational range of motion were measured at multiple abduction and external rotation positions. Statistical analysis was performed using a linear mixed-effects model.

FINDINGS: Both lower trapezius and combined lower and middle trapezius transfers significantly reduced superior humeral head translation versus the tear condition (p < .041). The combined transfer restored translation to intact levels and was more effective than lower trapezius transfer alone at 0° and 20° abduction (p < .031). Subacromial contact pressure decreased significantly with both transfers at 20° and 40° abduction (p < .030), and with combined transfer also at 0° abduction and 30° ER (p < .042). Total rotational range of motion was preserved in all conditions.

INTERPRETATION: Combined lower and middle trapezius transfer offers superior biomechanical restoration of glenohumeral joint stability compared to lower trapezius transfer alone without compromising range of motion. These findings support the potential of dual tendon transfer in addressing both posterior and superior cuff deficiencies, warranting further clinical evaluation.

PMID:40700779 | DOI:10.1016/j.clinbiomech.2025.106621

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Data Submission to the American Spine Registry for Advanced Disease-Specific Certification in Spine Surgery

Orthop Nurs. 2025 Jul-Aug 01;44(4):231-235. doi: 10.1097/NOR.0000000000001137. Epub 2025 Jul 18.

ABSTRACT

In this study, the authors examine the establishment and significance of spine surgery registries, particularly the American Spine Registry (ASR). The historical development of spine registries in the United States is outlined along with the role of registries in evaluating clinical outcomes and improving healthcare quality. The ASR aims to collect comprehensive data on spine surgeries, including patient-reported outcomes and performance metrics, to enhance quality standards and clinical practice guidelines. Studies from European registries demonstrate the utility of registry data in identifying trends, assessing cost-effectiveness, and improving patient care. This paper also discusses the economic implications of participation in spine registries and emphasizes the potential cost savings and benefits for healthcare organizations. Ethical and legal considerations, data security, and patient confidentiality are addressed, along with the challenges associated with registry participation such as resource allocation. Increased transparency, collaboration, and clarity are needed to promote broader engagement in spine surgery registries.

PMID:40700763 | DOI:10.1097/NOR.0000000000001137

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Explaining alerts from a pediatric risk prediction model using clinical text

J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2025 Jul 23:ocaf121. doi: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf121. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Risk prediction models are used in hospitals to identify pediatric patients at risk of clinical deterioration, enabling timely interventions and rescue. The objective of this study was to develop a new explainer algorithm that uses a patient’s clinical notes to generate text-based explanations for risk prediction alerts.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of 39 406 patient admissions to the American Family Children’s Hospital at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (2009-2020). The pediatric Calculated Assessment of Risk and Triage (pCART) validated risk prediction model was used to identify children at risk for deterioration. A transformer model was trained to use clinical notes from the 12-hour period preceding each pCART score to predict whether a patient was flagged as at risk. Then, label-aware attention highlighted text phrases most important to an at-risk alert. The study cohort was randomly split into derivation (60%) and validation (20%) data, and a separate test (20%) was used to evaluate the explainer’s performance.

RESULTS: Our pCART Explainer algorithm performed well in discriminating at-risk pCART alert vs no alert (c-statistic 0.805). Sample explanations from pCART Explainer revealed clinically important phrases such as “rapid breathing,” “fall risk,” “distension,” and “grunting,” thereby demonstrating excellent face validity.

DISCUSSION: The pCART Explainer could quickly orient clinicians to the patient’s condition by drawing attention to key phrases in notes, potentially enhancing situational awareness and guiding decision-making.

CONCLUSION: We developed pCART Explainer, a novel algorithm that highlights text within clinical notes to provide medically relevant context about deterioration alerts, thereby improving the explainability of the pCART model.

PMID:40700686 | DOI:10.1093/jamia/ocaf121

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Psychometric Evaluation of the Patient Experience Colonoscopy Scale

J Eval Clin Pract. 2025 Aug;31(5):e70220. doi: 10.1111/jep.70220.

ABSTRACT

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: Colonoscopy, though common, can be uncomfortable, necessitating routine assessment of patient experience per European guidelines. Positive patient experiences are crucial as they influence willingness for repeat procedures. Patient-reported experience measures (PREMs) effectively capture patient perspectives through surveys, empowering patients to influence healthcare quality. These surveys identify areas for improvement and inform research, enhancing healthcare and its quality. The Patient Experience Colonoscopy Scale (PECS) is a colonoscopy-specific PREM that measures adult patient experience after an elective colonoscopy. It consists of items derived from the patient’s perspective and has been found to be content valid. The PECS is multidimensional and divided into five constructs: health motivation, discomfort, information, a caring relationship, and understanding. The current study aims to evaluate the measurement properties of the new PREM, called the PECS regarding reliability and construct validity.

METHOD: The sample comprised 331 adult patients who had undergone an elective colonoscopy at a University Hospital in Sweden. The PECS was evaluated using intraclass correlation coefficients, confirmatory factor analysis, and multi- and unidimensional Rasch analyses.

RESULTS: The test-retest reliability was acceptable, with an average intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.72. Construct validity was tested with three different techniques. The confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the theoretical bifactor model containing the five constructs was supported. The multi- and unidimensional Rasch analyses showed that approximately 60% of the items had acceptable values. Some violation of local independence and some evidence of differential item functioning with respect to age and gender were identified, but they all made subject matter sense. The PECS is well-targeted to patients with less positive experiences. The overall evaluation of the construct validity showed the PECS has acceptable measurement properties.

CONCLUSION: The PECS is a reliable and valid 30-item colonoscopy-specific PREM that can play an important role in gathering data for research and quality improvement initiatives that seek to incorporate patient perspectives on colonoscopy experiences. Some potential areas for improvement were found, but the PECS is ready to be utilised in clinical practice for the purpose of collecting patient experiences.

PMID:40700682 | DOI:10.1111/jep.70220