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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Assessment of drought conditions and prediction by machine learning algorithms using Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Water-Level Index (case study: Yazd province, Iran)

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Sep 1. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-29522-5. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Drought as a natural phenomenon has always been a serious threat to regions with hot and dry climates. One of the major effects of drought is the drop in groundwater level. This paper focused on the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and SWI (Standardized Water-Level Index) to assess meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. In the first part, we used different time frames of SPI (3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to investigate drought in Yazd, a dry province in the center of Iran for 29 years (1990-2018). Then, in the second part, the relationship between SPI and SWI was investigated in the three aquifers of Yazd by some rain gauge stations and the closest observation wells to them. In addition to using SPI and SWI, we also used different machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict drought conditions including linear model and six non-linear models of K_Nearest_Neighbors, Gradient_Boosting, Decision_Tree, XGBoost, Random_Forest, and Neural_Net. To evaluate the accuracy of the mentioned models, three statistical indicators including Score, RMSE, and MAE were used. Based on the results of the first part, Yazd province has changed from mild wet to mild drought in terms of meteorological drought (the amount of rainfall according to SPI), and this condition can worsen due to climate change. The models used in ML showed that SPI-6 (score ave = 0.977), SPI-3 (score ave = 0.936), SPI-24 (score ave = 0.571), and SPI-12 (score ave = 0.413) indices had the highest accuracy, respectively. The models of Neural_Net (score ave = 0.964-RMSE ave = 0.020-MAE ave = 0.077) and Gradient_Boosting (score ave = 0.551-RMSE ave = 0.124-MAE ave = 0.248) had the highest and lowest accuracy in prediction of the SPI in all four-time scales. Based on the results of the second part, about the SWI, Random_Forest model (score = 0.929-RMSE = 0.052-MAE = 0.150) and model of Neural_Net (score = 0.755-RMSE = 0.235-MAE = 0.456) had the highest and lowest accuracy, respectively. Also, hydrological drought (reduction of the groundwater level) of the region has been much more severe, and according to the low correlation coefficient of average SPI and SWI (R2 = 0.14), we found that the uncontrolled pumping wells, as a main factor than a shortage of rainfall, have aggravated the hydrological drought, and this region is at risk of becoming a more arid region in the future.

PMID:37656297 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-023-29522-5

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A comparison of outcomes of locking versus non-locking plate fixation for the distal fibula fractures: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Eur J Orthop Surg Traumatol. 2023 Sep 1. doi: 10.1007/s00590-023-03694-9. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: A locking plate (LP) or non-locking plate (NLP) can be used for distal fibula fracture fixation. However, the advantages of LP over NLP in patients with distal fibula fractures are not clear. In terms of indications, the role of the two plates probably differs; however, to draw comparative conclusions, we conceptualized this systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that directly compared the two plates, wherein both groups’ indications and baseline parameters were similar.

METHODS: An electronic literature search was performed using PubMed/Medline, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane Library databases for studies comparing the LP versus NLP fixation for the lateral malleolus fracture. A total of 18 studies were included in qualitative and quantitative analysis. A subgroup analysis was performed for patients aged < 55 years and patients aged > 55 years. The statistical analysis was performed by Review Manager Software version 5.4.1.

RESULTS: A meta-analysis of 4243 fractures was performed across 18 studies. The rate of fracture union and overall complication rates did not differ between the two fixation groups with an OR of 0.71 (95% CI 0.26, 1.96, p = 0.51 and 1.11 (95% CI 0.84, 1.47, p = 0.47, respectively. There is no difference in the reoperation rate due to minor or major complications between the two groups. There was no difference in functional outcome (MD -0.85, with 95% CI -5.63, 3.93, p = 0.73), but NLP has a shorter surgical duration (MD 3.0, with 95% CI 0.26, 5.75, p = 0.03). A leave-one-out sensitivity analysis performed for overall complications affected the final outcome of the meta-analysis.

CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis demonstrates no clear benefit in selecting LP over NLP for the fixation of lateral malleolus fractures.

PMID:37656278 | DOI:10.1007/s00590-023-03694-9

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Bovine leukosis virus, bovine viral diarrhea, and bovine neosporosis seroprevalence in specialized dairy herds in Antioquia-Colombia

Trop Anim Health Prod. 2023 Sep 1;55(5):294. doi: 10.1007/s11250-023-03685-2.

ABSTRACT

Enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL) is a chronic infectious disease caused by the bovine leukosis virus (BLV), a Deltaretrovirus. Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is an infectious disease caused by a pestivirus. Bovine neosporosis is caused by the obligate intracellular parasite Neospora caninum (Nc). These pathogens can have horizontal (postnatal) or vertical (transplacental) transmissions and affect the productive and reproductive performance of infected bovines. This work aimed to detect BLV, BVD, and Nc seroprevalence in specialized dairy cattle from the north, east, and Aburrá Valley regions of the Department of Antioquia, the highest in milk production regions in Antioquia. A total of 599 blood samples, obtained from 53 specialized dairy cattle herds, were evaluated by the ELISA test. The results revealed a seroprevalence of 41.13% for BLV (242/599), 28.48% (163/599) for Nc, and 22.7% (132/599) for BVD. Regarding the regional seroprevalence evaluation, BLV was found in 47.02% of the samples from the east, 36.87% from the north, and 46.02% from the Aburrá Valley. Nc was found in 31.03% of the samples from the east, 24.26% from the north, and 36.63% from Aburrá Valley. BVD was found in 21.62% of the samples from the east, 25.03% from the north region, and 10.39% of the samples from the Aburrá Valley. It is highlighted by these results that the north region, with the highest milk production in Antioquia, had the lowest BLV and Nc seroprevalences but the highest seroprevalence of BVD. BLV has increased in Antioquia in recent years, and as an immunosuppressive infection, opportunities for other pathogens are created by it. A significant statistical difference was found in the average prevalence of the pathogens according to the municipality, cattle breed, and region of origin of the sample. The seroprevalence of these pathogens in specialized dairy herds in Antioquia can be classified as medium-low. However, it is recommended that biosecurity practices should be maximized to avoid the spread of these pathogens due to the variability detected in the region, municipality, breed group, and herd age. The rapid and efficient diagnosis of these three pathogens through reliable methodologies will allow for the control of dissemination in dairy herds.

PMID:37656253 | DOI:10.1007/s11250-023-03685-2

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Telemedicine-based inspiratory muscle training and walking promotion with lung cancer survivors following curative intent therapy: a parallel-group pilot randomized trial

Support Care Cancer. 2023 Sep 1;31(9):546. doi: 10.1007/s00520-023-07999-7.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Following curative-intent therapy of lung cancer, many survivors experience dyspnea and physical inactivity. We investigated the feasibility, acceptability, safety, and potential efficacy of inspiratory muscle training (IMT) and walking promotion to disrupt a postulated “dyspnea-inactivity” spiral.

METHODS: Between January and December 2022, we recruited lung cancer survivors from Kaiser Permanente Colorado who completed curative-intent therapy within 1-6 months into a phase-IIb, parallel-group, pilot randomized trial (1:1 allocation). The 12-week intervention, delivered via telemedicine, consisted of exercise training (IMT + walking), education, and behavior change support. Control participants received educational materials on general exercise. We determined feasibility a priori: enrollment of ≥ 20% eligible patients, ≥ 75% retention, study measure completion, and adherence. We assessed acceptability using the Telemedicine-Satisfaction-and-Usefulness-Questionnaire and safety events that included emergency department visits or hospitalizations. Patient-centered outcome measures (PCOMs) included dyspnea (University-of-California-San-Diego-Shortness-of-Breath-Questionnaire), physical activity (activPAL™ steps/day), functional exercise capacity (mobile-based-six-minute-walk-test), and health-related quality of life (HRQL, St.-George’s-Respiratory-Questionnaire). We used linear mixed-effects models to assess potential efficacy.

RESULTS: We screened 751 patients, identified 124 eligible, and consented 31 (25%) participants. Among 28 participants randomized (14/group), 22 (11/group) completed the study (79% retention). Intervention participants returned > 90% of self-reported activity logs, completed > 90% of PCOMs, and attended > 90% of tele-visits; 75% of participants performed IMT at the recommended dose. Participants had high satisfaction with tele-visits and found the intervention useful. There was no statistically significant difference in safety events between groups. Compared to control participants from baseline to follow-up, intervention participants had statistically significant and clinically meaningful improved HRQL (SGRQ total, symptom, and impact scores) (standardized effect size: -1.03 to -1.30).

CONCLUSIONS: Among lung cancer survivors following curative-intent therapy, telemedicine-based IMT + walking was feasible, acceptable, safe, and had potential to disrupt the “dyspnea-inactivity” spiral. Future efficacy/effectiveness trials are warranted and should incorporate IMT and walking promotion to improve HRQL.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05059132.

PMID:37656252 | DOI:10.1007/s00520-023-07999-7

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Associations of Dietary Anthocyanidins Intake with Bone Health in Children: A Cross-Sectional Study

Calcif Tissue Int. 2023 Sep 1. doi: 10.1007/s00223-023-01128-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Bone health and body composition share several common mechanisms like oxidative stress and inflammation. Anthocyanins have antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. We have reported that anthocyanins are associated with better body composition in children, but the associations with bone health have not been elucidated. We aimed to explore the association of anthocyanins with bone mineral content (BMC) and bone mineral density (BMD) at multiple sites in children.

METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, 452 Chinese children aged 6-9 years were recruited. A validated 79-item food frequency questionnaire was used to collect dietary information. BMC and BMD at multiple sites (whole body; whole body excluding head, WBEH; limbs; arms; legs) were measured by dual-energy X-ray.

RESULTS: Higher dietary intake of total anthocyanidins (per one standard deviation increase) was associated with a 1.28-13.6 g (1.31-1.60%, compared to median) higher BMC at all sites and a 3.61-6.96 mg (0.65-0.90%) higher BMD at the whole body, WBEH, and arm sites after controlling for a number of possible covariates. The results were similar and more pronounced for cyanidin, but not for delphinidin and peonidin. Higher dietary intake of cyanidin (per one standard deviation increase) was associated with a 1.33-15.4 g (1.48-1.68%) higher BMC at all sites and a 4.15-7.77 mg (0.66-1.00%) higher BMD at all sites except the legs. No statistically significant associations with BMC or BMD were found for dietary intake of delphinidin and peonidin.

CONCLUSIONS: Higher dietary intake of total anthocyanidins and cyanidins were associated with higher BMC and BMD in Chinese children.

PMID:37656219 | DOI:10.1007/s00223-023-01128-6

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One-stage cartilage repair using the autologous matrix-induced chondrogenesis combined with simultaneous use of autologous adipose tissue graft and adipose tissue mesenchymal cells technique: clinical results and magnetic resonance imaging evaluation at five-year follow-up

Int Orthop. 2023 Sep 1. doi: 10.1007/s00264-023-05921-8. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To evaluate medium-term outcomes of knee cartilage defects repair by autologous matrix-induced chondrogenesis combined with simultaneous use of autologous adipose tissue graft and adipose tissue mesenchymal cells, defined as LIPO-AMIC technique.

METHODS: The LIPO-AMIC technique has been used in ICRS degree III-IV knee defects. Eighteen patients have been prospectively evaluated during two and five years both clinically and by MRI.

RESULTS: Patients showed progressive significant improvement of all scores starting early at six months, and further increased values were noted till the last follow-up at 60 months. Mean subjective pre-operative IKDC score of 36.1 significantly increased to 86.4 at 24 months and to 87.2 at 60 months. Mean pre-operative Lysholm score of 44.4 reached 93.5 at two years and 93.5 at five years. MRI examination showed early subchondral lamina regrowth and progressive maturation of repair tissue and filling of defects. The mean total MOCART score showed that a significative improvement from two year follow-up (69.1 points) to last follow-up was 81.9 points (range, 30-100 points, SD 24). Complete filling of the defect at the level of the surrounding cartilage was found in 77.8%.

CONCLUSIONS: Adipose tissue can represent ideal source of MSCs since easiness of withdrawal and definite chondrogenic capacity. This study clearly demonstrated the LIPO-AMIC technique to be feasible for treatment of knee cartilage defects and to result in statistically significant progressive clinical, functional and pain improvement in all treated patients better than what reported for the AMIC standard technique, starting very early from the 6-month follow-up and maintaining the good clinical results more durably with stable results at mid-term follow-up.

PMID:37656198 | DOI:10.1007/s00264-023-05921-8

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Healthcare costs and resource utilization in patients with migraine treated with erenumab: A retrospective, non-interventional study using claims data from the United States

Headache. 2023 Sep 1. doi: 10.1111/head.14612. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To assess healthcare costs and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) among adult patients who newly initiated erenumab in the United States.

METHODS: This retrospective, non-interventional analysis included adult patients (aged ≥18 years) newly initiating erenumab and who had three consecutive monthly claims for erenumab (11/1/2017-9/1/2019) from the Komodo Health database. Outcomes included migraine-related and all-cause costs, use of other preventive/acute migraine medications, and HCRU. All outcomes were compared during the 180-day pre- versus the 180-day post-index periods. Cost outcomes were also assessed for longer periods including post-index Days 91-270 and monthly mean post-index costs for the longest time of continuous insurance enrollment.

RESULTS: Overall, 1839 patients with migraine were included for analysis. Compared to the 180-day pre-index period, an increase in total migraine-related costs (+$2639; p < 0.0001), migraine-related prescription costs (+$3435, p < 0.0001), all-cause total costs (+$2977; p < 0.001), and all-cause prescription costs (+$4102; p < 0.0001) were observed during the 180-day post-index period after adjusting for covariates. Conversely, reduction in migraine-related medical costs (-$896; p < 0.0001), and significantly lower odds of migraine-related emergency room visits (odds ratio [OR] 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44-0.82; p = 0.001), migraine-related office visits (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.53-0.64; p < 0.0001), and migraine-related neurologist visits (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.63-0.75; p < 0.0001) were observed during the 180-days post-index period. There were significant decreases in the odds of having overall preventive migraine medications (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.75-0.87; p < 0.0001), acute-migraine medications (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.85-1.00; p = 0.038), and triptan (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.73-0.85; p < 0.0001) during the 180-day post-index period. Sensitivity analyses on cost outcomes found no statistically significant differences in pre-index migraine-related costs compared to post-index migraine-related costs when assessing longer post-index follow-up periods.

CONCLUSION: Initiation of therapy with a novel treatment is often associated with an increase in overall healthcare costs due to the entrance costs associated with novel therapy. For a chronic condition such as migraine, cost versus health benefits should be evaluated over a long period (e.g., ≥2 years) to better understand the true benefits of therapy. Data from this study suggest that the entrance cost for erenumab, the primary driver of the high post-index prescription costs gets mitigated by reduced medical costs over long-term follow-up. The results indicate better disease management in adult patients with migraine, which should be an important consideration for both patients and payors, as these findings have shown an offset between migraine-related prescription and medical costs.

PMID:37655551 | DOI:10.1111/head.14612

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Adapted feeding strategies in fed-batch fermentation improve sugar delivery and ethanol productivity

Bioengineered. 2023 Dec;14(1):2250950. doi: 10.1080/21655979.2023.2250950.

ABSTRACT

Bioethanol is a renewable fuel widely used in road transportation and is generally regarded as a clean energy source. Although fermentation is one of the major processes in bioethanol production, studies on improving its efficiency through operational design are limited, especially compared to other steps (pretreatment and hydrolysis/saccharification). In this study, two adapted feeding strategies, in which feed medium addition (sugar delivery) was adjusted to increase the supply of fermentable sugar, were developed to improve ethanol productivity in 5-L fed-batch fermentation by Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Specifically, a linear adapted feeding strategy was established based on changes in cell biomass, and an exponential adapted feeding strategy was developed based on cell biomass accumulation. By implementing these two feeding strategies, the overall ethanol productivity reached 0.88±0.04 and 0.87±0.06 g/L/h, respectively. This corresponded to ~20% increases in ethanol productivity compared to fixed pulsed feeding operations. Additionally, there was no residual glucose at the end of fermentation, and final ethanol content reached 95±3 g/L under the linear adapted operation and 104±3 g/L under the exponential adapted feeding strategy. No statistical difference was observed in the overall ethanol yield (ethanol-to-sugar ratio) between fixed and adapted feeding strategies (~91%). These results demonstrate that sugar delivery controlled by adapted feeding strategies was more efficient than fixed feeding operations, leading to higher ethanol productivity. Overall, this study provides novel adapted feeding strategies to improve sugar delivery and ethanol productivity. Integration into the current practices of the ethanol industry could improve productivity and reduce production costs of fermentation processes.

PMID:37655550 | DOI:10.1080/21655979.2023.2250950

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A Pilot Study Comparing a Community of Practice Program with and without Concurrent Ketamine-Assisted Therapy

J Psychoactive Drugs. 2023 Sep 1:1-10. doi: 10.1080/02791072.2023.2253798. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The prevalence of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has increased among healthcare providers, while the effectiveness of conventional treatments remains limited. Ketamine-assisted therapy offers a promising alternative; however, few have integrated ketamine with a group-based therapeutic modality. We report a retrospective, secondary analysis of a 12-week pilot of a Community of Practice (CoP) oriented group therapy program with optional, adjunct ketamine for depression, anxiety, and PTSD in a sample of 57 healthcare providers. All participants moved through the treatment as one group, with 38 electing to also receive three adjunct ketamine sessions in addition to the weekly CoP. Symptoms were assessed at baseline and pilot completion with the PHQ-9 for depression, GAD-7 for anxiety, and PCL-5 for PTSD. We observed significant reductions in the mean change among all participants, suggesting that benefit was derived from the CoP component, with or without ketamine as an adjunct. PHQ-9 scores decreased by 6.79 (95% CI: 5.09-8.49, p < .001), GAD-7 scores decreased by 5.57 (CI: 4.12-7.00, p < .001), and PCL-5 scores decreased by 14.83 (CI: 10.27-19.38, p < .001). Reductions were larger, but statistically nonsignificant, among those receiving ketamine. Further research is required to assess the impact of ketamine as an adjunct in group-based therapies.

PMID:37655532 | DOI:10.1080/02791072.2023.2253798

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Variables Associated with Emotional Symptom Severity in Primary Care Patients: The Usefulness of a Logistic Regression Equation to Help Clinical Assessment and Treatment Decisions

Span J Psychol. 2023 Sep 1;26:e24. doi: 10.1017/SJP.2023.23.

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to contribute to the evidence regarding variables related to emotional symptom severity and to use them to exemplify the potential usefulness of logistic regression for clinical assessment at primary care, where most of these disorders are treated. Cross-sectional data related to depression and anxiety symptoms, sociodemographic characteristics, quality of life (QoL), and emotion-regulation processes were collected from 1,704 primary care patients. Correlation and analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests were conducted to identify those variables associated with both depression and anxiety. Participants were then divided into severe and nonsevere emotional symptoms, and binomial logistic regression was used to identify the variables that contributed the most to classify the severity. The final adjusted model included psychological QoL (p < .001, odds ratio [OR] = .426, 95% CI [.318, .569]), negative metacognitions (p < .001, OR = 1.083, 95% CI [1.045, 1.122]), physical QoL (p < .001, OR = .870, 95% CI [.841, .900]), brooding rumination (p < .001, OR = 1.087, 95% CI [1.042, 1.133]), worry (p < .001, OR = 1.047, 95% CI [1.025, 1.070]), and employment status (p = .022, OR [.397, 2.039]) as independent variables, ρ2 = .326, area under the curve (AUC) = .857. Moreover, rumination and psychological QoL emerged as the best predictors to form a simplified equation to determine the emotional symptom severity (ρ2 = .259, AUC = .822). The use of statistical models like this could accelerate the assessment and treatment-decision process, depending less on the subjective point of view of clinicians and optimizing health care resources.

PMID:37655522 | DOI:10.1017/SJP.2023.23