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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Prediction From Minimal Experience: How People Predict the Duration of an Ongoing Epidemic

Cogn Sci. 2023 May;47(5):e13294. doi: 10.1111/cogs.13294.

ABSTRACT

People are known for good predictions in domains they have rich experience with, such as everyday statistics and intuitive physics. But how well can they predict for problems they lack experience with, such as the duration of an ongoing epidemic caused by a new virus? Amid the first wave of COVID-19 in China, we conducted an online diary study, asking each of over 400 participants to predict the remaining duration of the epidemic, once per day for 14 days. Participants’ predictions reflected a reasonable use of publicly available information but were meanwhile biased, subject to the influence of negative affect and future time perspectives. Computational modeling revealed that participants neither relied on prior distributions of epidemic durations as in inferring everyday statistics, nor on mechanistic simulations of epidemic dynamics as in computing intuitive physics. Instead, with minimal experience, participants’ predictions were best explained by similarity-based generalization of the temporal pattern of epidemic statistics. In two control experiments, we further confirmed that such cognitive algorithm is not specific to the epidemic scenario and that minimal and rich experience do lead to different prediction behaviors for the same observations. We conclude that people generalize patterns in recent history to predict the future under minimal experience.

PMID:37183511 | DOI:10.1111/cogs.13294

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Effects of transcranial direct current stimulation on lower limb function, balance and quality of life after stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Neurol Res. 2023 May 14:1-11. doi: 10.1080/01616412.2023.2211457. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This systematic review with meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of tDCS on lower limb function, balance and quality of life in stroke patients.

METHODS: The search included PubMed, CENTRAL, PEDro, Web of Science, SCOPUS, PsycINFO Ovid, CINAHL EBSCO, EMBASE, ScienceDirect, reference lists of relevant reviews, clinical trials registries and academic google, in June and July 2021. Randomized controlled trials were selected, which present the effect of tDCS on lower limb motor function recovery in stroke patients, comparing any type of active tDCS versus sham; parallel or crossover study design; adult patients; stimulation on the primary motor cortex; articles published in any language; without restriction of publication period.

RESULTS: Nineteen studies were included. The treatment with active tDCS did not improve motor function (Chi2 = 32,87, I2 = 76%, SMD = 0,36 e 95% CI -0,18-0,90). Subgroup analyzes showed a significant effect favorable to tDCS, in relation to motor function, in the acute and subacute post stroke phases. However, the quality of evidence for this outcome was very low. Regarding balance outcome, a meta-analysis showed a significant difference in favor of active tDCS, but the quality of the evidence was considered very low. As for the quality of life outcome, no statistically significant difference was found in favor of tDCS.

DISCUSSION: There is a lack of evidence in recommending the use of tDCS in isolation in the treatment of patients after stroke, aiming at improving motor function, balance and quality of life. However, it is possible that tDCS can be beneficial when associated with other therapies or interventions.

PMID:37183510 | DOI:10.1080/01616412.2023.2211457

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Chunking Versus Transitional Probabilities: Differentiating Between Theories of Statistical Learning

Cogn Sci. 2023 May;47(5):e13284. doi: 10.1111/cogs.13284.

ABSTRACT

There are two main approaches to how statistical patterns are extracted from sequences: The transitional probability approach proposes that statistical learning occurs through the computation of probabilities between items in a sequence. The chunking approach, including models such as PARSER and TRACX, proposes that units are extracted as chunks. Importantly, the chunking approach suggests that the extraction of full units weakens the processing of subunits while the transitional probability approach suggests that both units and subunits should strengthen. Previous findings using sequentially organized, auditory stimuli or spatially organized, visual stimuli support the chunking approach. However, one limitation of prior studies is that most assessed learning with the two-alternative forced-choice task. In contrast, this pre-registered experiment examined the two theoretical approaches in sequentially organized, visual stimuli using an online self-paced task-arguably providing a more sensitive index of learning as it occurs-and a secondary offline familiarity judgment task. During the self-paced task, abstract shapes were covertly organized into eight triplets (ABC) where one in every eight was altered (BCA) from the canonical structure in a way that disrupted the full unit while preserving a subunit (BC). Results from the offline familiarity judgment task revealed that the altered triplets were perceived as highly familiar, suggesting the learned representations were relatively flexible. More importantly, results from the online self-paced task demonstrated that processing for subunits, but not unit-initial stimuli, was impeded in the altered triplet. The pattern of results is in line with the chunking approach to statistical learning and, more specifically, the TRACX model.

PMID:37183483 | DOI:10.1111/cogs.13284

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Increase in Alcohol Use Among the Geriatric Trauma Population During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Am Surg. 2023 May 15:31348231175104. doi: 10.1177/00031348231175104. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound effects on the everyday behaviors of all patients. At the same time, the United States population is aging, and an increasing portion of traumatically injured patients are geriatric. Our study aims to examine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the geriatric trauma population. We performed a retrospective review of the trauma database from our single institution level I trauma center examining pandemics impact on geriatric trauma demographics, mechanism of injury, injury severity, hospitalization characteristics, and alcohol use. Data during the pandemic was compared to the prior 3 years and controlled for seasonality. Statistical analysis demonstrated an increase in duration of mechanical ventilation and alcohol use during the pandemic while other factors remained stable. This shows the need for targeted alcohol assessment in the geriatric trauma population during periods of social isolation and additional research into the effects of the COVID-19 on trauma patients.

PMID:37183430 | DOI:10.1177/00031348231175104

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Common clinical pattern of antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody -associated vasculitis: An experience from a multicenter study in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Med J. 2023 May;44(5):486-491. doi: 10.15537/smj.2023.44.5.20220818.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To understand the most common type and clinical manifestations of associated vasculitis (AAV) in the Saudi Arabia.

METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted at King Fahad Medical City and the Security Forces Hospital Program, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between January 2014 and May 2022. Patients aged ≥18 years were included in the study and diagnosed based on clinical manifestations, serology, or histopathology according to the EMA algorithm. Univariate analysis was carried out to compare different groups; a series of independent samples t-tests was applied for continuous data.

RESULTS: A total of 53 patients were enrolled: eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA), granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA), and microscopic polyangiitis (MPA). Overall, proteinase-3 was the most prevalent (52.8%), and myeloperoxidase, myeloperoxidase MPO was the least prevalent antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-type (18.9%) among patients; other patients showed negative ANCA test results. The clinical manifestations differed significantly between EGPA and GPA groups in pulmonary, neurological, cardiological, and renal signs and symptoms (p<0.05); there was a higher incidence of the former 3 in the EGPA group. Although upper airway was predominant in all groups, there was no statistical difference between both groups.

CONCLUSION: This study validated international reports on AAV clinical manifestations in the Saudi population. The GPA was associated with more upper airway and pulmonary signs and symptoms. Further investigation is needed to understand the treatments and quality of life of patients with AAV.

PMID:37182925 | DOI:10.15537/smj.2023.44.5.20220818

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Clinical and pathological characteristics of extra-cranial germ cell tumors: A 30-year single-center experience in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Med J. 2023 May;44(5):498-499. doi: 10.15537/smj.2023.44.5.20230070.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the clinical and pathological characteristics of extracranial germ cell tumors (GCTs) in children aged 0-168 months treated at the National Guard Hospital, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2020.

METHODS: In this retrospective analysis, the data for all cases of GCTs were collected from 1990 to 2020. Statistical analyses were carried out using JMP software. The data was divided into 4 main categories: demographics, pathological/clinical features, recurrence, treatment and outcome.

RESULTS: The study included 50 patients, with a mean age at diagnosis of 56.52 months. The median follow-up duration was 30 months. Most tumors were in the gonads, and among the extragonadal tumors, the sacro-coccyx was the most frequent site of the disease.The most common histological subtype of GCTs is yolk sac tumor, accounting for 28% of cases. Of the 50 patients, 46% received chemotherapy, and 54% underwent surgery without chemotherapy. Ten (20%) patients experienced recurrence after treatment. At the last follow-up, 96% of the patients were alive, and only 2 of the patients died due to advanced disease.

CONCLUSION: Our findings were comparable to international data, but improvement in surveillance is required for long-term survivors.

PMID:37182921 | DOI:10.15537/smj.2023.44.5.20230070

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Comparison of postoperative visual performance between trifocal intraocular lens and monofocal intraocular lens

Saudi Med J. 2023 May;44(5):456-462. doi: 10.15537/smj.2023.44.5.20220833.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To compare the subjective and objective visual quality more comprehensively after surgery of the commonly used multifocal intraocular lenses (IOL) and monolocal IOL implants through long-term systematic clinical observation, providing reference and basis for clinical application.

METHODS: Non-randomized controlled trial. A total of 91 (138 eyes) patients between June 2020 and December 2020 were implanted trifocal IOL or monofocal IOL after phacoemulsification in a tertiary class hospital in Wuhan. Monocular testing 3 months after surgery included best-spectacles corrected and uncorrected visual at distant, intermediate, and near vision; spherical equivalent (SE); defocus curve; modulation transfer function (MTF); dysfunctional lens index (DLI); Strehl ratio (SR); mesopic contrast sensitivity function; quality-of-life, spectacles independence, visual disturbance, and surgical satisfaction surveys 3 months post-surgery.

RESULTS: There was statistically better uncorrected vision acuity with trifocal IOLs in all range, while monofocal IOL had statistically better mesopic contrast sensitivity at specific spatial frequencies and statistically worse defocus curves, spectacles independence, and surgical satisfaction. The trifocal IOL performed better in subjective quality of vision and life and spectacles independence questionnaires, and the objective quality of vision had no statistical significance.

CONCLUSION: Compared to monofocal IOL, trifocal IOL could provide a full range of clear vision for the majority of patients with simple cataracts, improve the rate of spectacles independence and patient satisfaction. And the objective quality of vision did not show any difference.

PMID:37182920 | DOI:10.15537/smj.2023.44.5.20220833

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

To drain or not to drain following thyroidectomy.: A prospective, randomized study

Saudi Med J. 2023 May;44(5):518-521. doi: 10.15537/smj.2023.44.5.20220031.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To ascertain the use of draining the thyroid bed following surgery.

METHODS: Fifty four patients who underwent total thyroidectomy were enrolled in the study between March 2021 and July 2022 and randomly allocated into 2 groups – a drain group and a no drain group. The hospital stay, operating time, post operative pain, post operative complications, cosmesis, and patient’s perspectives were compared.

RESULTS: The mean duration of hospitalization was significantly shorter in the no drain group as compared to the drain group. The post operative pain, as assessed by the Mankoski Pain Scale (MPS) was significantly higher in the drain group than in the no drain group. The cosmetic evaluation undertaken using the Hollander Wound Evaluation Scale, noted that there was a statistically significant difference in scarring between the 2 groups. There was no statistically significant difference in the duration of surgery and post operative complications between the two groups. Patient satisfaction was also noted to be superlative in the no drain group.

CONCLUSION: The routine drain placement following thyroidectomy places the patient at a disadvantage in terms of longer hospitalisation, increased post operative pain and poor cosmetic outcome.

PMID:37182919 | DOI:10.15537/smj.2023.44.5.20220031

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Patient comfort in percutaneous coronary interventions

Saudi Med J. 2023 May;44(5):471-478. doi: 10.15537/smj.2023.44.5.20220872.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To identify patients’ general comfort levels in percutaneous coronary intervention.

METHODS: This descriptive research included 2 hundred cardiac patients, whom were in the Medipol Mega University Hospital, Istanbul, during the period between May 2018 and May 2019. The data were obtained by General Comfort Questionnaire and evaluated using mean, standard deviation, percentage and t-test.

RESULTS: In this study reports that patients had the mean total comfort score as 3.03±0.3. They acquired the maximum score from the psychospiritual comfort subdimension and the minimum score from the physical comfort subdimension. Patients who experienced transradial percutaneous coronaryintervention had statistically higher general, physical, psycospiritual and environmental comfort levels than those who had transfemoral intervention (p<0.05). According to both access methods, relief and ease levels were significantly different.

CONCLUSION: Patients who experienced percutaneous coronary intervention have above medium general comfort levels. Their physical comfort scored lowest within the comfort dimensions investigated in this study. The comfort level of the patients to whom the transradial method was applied was found to be higher in comparison with the transfemoral method.

PMID:37182915 | DOI:10.15537/smj.2023.44.5.20220872

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Associations of Microvascular Dysfunction with Mild Cognitive Impairment and Cognitive Function Among Rural-Dwelling Older Adults in China

J Alzheimers Dis. 2023 May 5. doi: 10.3233/JAD-221242. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Microvascular dysfunction (MVD) may contribute to cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease, but evidence is limited.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of composite and organ-specific MVD burden with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and cognition among rural-dwelling Chinese older adults.

METHODS: In this population-based cross-sectional study, we assessed MVD makers using optical coherence tomographic angiography for retinal microvasculature features, brain magnetic resonance imaging scans for cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD), and serum biomarkers for MVD. A composite MVD score was generated from the aforementioned organ-specific parameters. We used a neuropsychological test battery to assess memory, verbal fluency, attention, executive function, and global cognitive function. MCI, amnestic MCI (aMCI), and non-amnestic MCI (naMCI) were diagnosed following the Petersen’s criteria. Data was analyzed with the linear and logistic regression models.

RESULTS: Of the 274 dementia-free participants (age≥65 years), 56 were diagnosed with MCI, including 47 with aMCI and 9 with naMCI. A composite MVD score was statistically significantly associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.70 (95% confidence interval 1.12-6.53) for MCI and β-coefficient of -0.29 (-0.48–0.10) for global cognitive score after adjustment for socio-demographics, lifestyle factors, APOE genotype, the Geriatric Depression Scale score, serum inflammatory biomarkers, and cardiovascular comorbidity. A composite score of retinal microvascular morphology was associated with a multivariable-adjusted OR of 1.72 (1.09-2.73) for MCI and multivariable-adjusted β-coefficient of -0.11 (-0.22–0.01) for global cognitive score. A composite CSVD score was associated with a lower global cognitive score (β= -0.10; -0.17–0.02).

CONCLUSION: Microvascular dysfunction, especially in the brain and retina, is associated with MCI and poor cognitive function among rural-dwelling older adults.

PMID:37182877 | DOI:10.3233/JAD-221242