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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Introducing riskCommunicator: An R package to obtain interpretable effect estimates for public health

PLoS One. 2022 Jul 18;17(7):e0265368. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0265368. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

Common statistical modeling methods do not necessarily produce the most relevant or interpretable effect estimates to communicate risk. Overreliance on the odds ratio and relative effect measures limit the potential impact of epidemiologic and public health research. We created a straightforward R package, called riskCommunicator, to facilitate the presentation of a variety of effect measures, including risk differences and ratios, number needed to treat, incidence rate differences and ratios, and mean differences. The riskCommunicator package uses g-computation with parametric regression models and bootstrapping for confidence intervals to estimate effect measures in time-fixed data. We demonstrate the utility of the package using data from the Framingham Heart Study to estimate the effect of prevalent diabetes on the 24-year risk of cardiovascular disease or death. The package promotes the communication of public-health relevant effects and is accessible to a broad range of epidemiologists and health researchers with little to no expertise in causal inference methods or advanced coding.

PMID:35849588 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0265368

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Examination of the independent contribution of rheumatic heart disease and congestive cardiac failure to the development and outcome of melioidosis in Far North Queensland, tropical Australia

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022 Jul 18;16(7):e0010604. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010604. eCollection 2022 Jul.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Patients with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) and congestive cardiac failure (CCF) are believed to have an increased risk of melioidosis and are thought to be more likely to die from the infection. This study was performed to confirm these findings in a region with a high incidence of all three conditions.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Between January 1998 and December 2021 there were 392 cases of melioidosis in Far North Queensland, tropical Australia; 200/392 (51.0%) identified as an Indigenous Australian, and 337/392 (86.0%) had a confirmed predisposing comorbidity that increased risk for the infection. Overall, 46/392 (11.7%) died before hospital discharge; the case fatality rate declining during the study period (p for trend = 0.001). There were only 3/392 (0.8%) with confirmed RHD, all of whom had at least one other risk factor for melioidosis; all 3 survived to hospital discharge. Among the 200 Indigenous Australians in the cohort, 2 had confirmed RHD; not statistically greater than the prevalence of RHD in the local general Indigenous population (1.0% versus 1.2%, p = 1.0). RHD was present in only 1/193 (0.5%) cases of melioidosis diagnosed after October 2016, a period which coincided with prospective data collection. There were 26/392 (6.6%) with confirmed CCF, but all 26 had another traditional risk factor for melioidosis. Patients with CCF were more likely to also have chronic lung disease (OR (95% CI: 4.46 (1.93-10.31), p<0.001) and chronic kidney disease (odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.98 (1.22-7.29), p = 0.01) than those who did not have CCF. Two patients with melioidosis and CCF died before hospital discharge; both were elderly (aged 81 and 91 years) and had significant comorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS: In this region of tropical Australia RHD and CCF do not appear to be independent risk factors for melioidosis and have limited prognostic utility.

PMID:35849581 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010604

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Alterations in the molecular composition of COVID-19 patient urine, detected using Raman spectroscopic/computational analysis

PLoS One. 2022 Jul 18;17(7):e0270914. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270914. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

We developed and tested a method to detect COVID-19 disease, using urine specimens. The technology is based on Raman spectroscopy and computational analysis. It does not detect SARS-CoV-2 virus or viral components, but rather a urine ‘molecular fingerprint’, representing systemic metabolic, inflammatory, and immunologic reactions to infection. We analyzed voided urine specimens from 46 symptomatic COVID-19 patients with positive real time-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests for infection or household contact with test-positive patients. We compared their urine Raman spectra with urine Raman spectra from healthy individuals (n = 185), peritoneal dialysis patients (n = 20), and patients with active bladder cancer (n = 17), collected between 2016-2018 (i.e., pre-COVID-19). We also compared all urine Raman spectra with urine specimens collected from healthy, fully vaccinated volunteers (n = 19) from July to September 2021. Disease severity (primarily respiratory) ranged among mild (n = 25), moderate (n = 14), and severe (n = 7). Seventy percent of patients sought evaluation within 14 days of onset. One severely affected patient was hospitalized, the remainder being managed with home/ambulatory care. Twenty patients had clinical pathology profiling. Seven of 20 patients had mildly elevated serum creatinine values (>0.9 mg/dl; range 0.9-1.34 mg/dl) and 6/7 of these patients also had estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) <90 mL/min/1.73m2 (range 59-84 mL/min/1.73m2). We could not determine if any of these patients had antecedent clinical pathology abnormalities. Our technology (Raman Chemometric Urinalysis-Rametrix®) had an overall prediction accuracy of 97.6% for detecting complex, multimolecular fingerprints in urine associated with COVID-19 disease. The sensitivity of this model for detecting COVID-19 was 90.9%. The specificity was 98.8%, the positive predictive value was 93.0%, and the negative predictive value was 98.4%. In assessing severity, the method showed to be accurate in identifying symptoms as mild, moderate, or severe (random chance = 33%) based on the urine multimolecular fingerprint. Finally, a fingerprint of ‘Long COVID-19’ symptoms (defined as lasting longer than 30 days) was located in urine. Our methods were able to locate the presence of this fingerprint with 70.0% sensitivity and 98.7% specificity in leave-one-out cross-validation analysis. Further validation testing will include sampling more patients, examining correlations of disease severity and/or duration, and employing metabolomic analysis (Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry [GC-MS], High Performance Liquid Chromatography [HPLC]) to identify individual components contributing to COVID-19 molecular fingerprints.

PMID:35849572 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0270914

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Diversity in HIV epidemic transitions in India: An application of HIV epidemiological metrices and benchmarks

PLoS One. 2022 Jul 18;17(7):e0270886. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270886. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) has emphasized on the incidence-prevalence ratio (IPR) and incidence-mortality ratio (IMR) to measure the progress in HIV epidemic control. In this paper, we describe the status of epidemic control in India and in various states in terms of UNAIDS’s recommended metrices.

METHOD: The National AIDS Control Programme (NACP) of India spearheads work on mathematical modelling to estimate HIV burden based on periodically conducted sentinel surveillance for providing guidance to program implementation and policymaking. Using the results of the latest round of HIV Estimations in 2019, IPR and IMR were calculated.

RESULTS: National level IPR was 0.029 [0.022-0.037] in 2019 and ranged from 0.01 to 0.15 in various States and Union Territories (UTs). Corresponding Incidence-Mortality Ratio was at 0.881 [0.754-1.014] nationally and ranged between 0.20 and 12.90 across the States/UTs.

CONCLUSIONS: Based on UNAIDS recommended indicators for HIV epidemic control, namely IPR and IMR; national AIDS response in India appears on track. However, the program success is not uniform and significant heterogeneity as well as expanding epidemic was observed at the level of States or UTs. Reinforcing States/UTs specific and focused HIV prevention, testing and treatment initiatives may help in the attainment of 2030 Sustainable Development Goals of ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

PMID:35849570 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0270886

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Virtual Reality in Treatment for Psychological Problems in First-Line Health care Professionals Fighting COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Series

J Nerv Ment Dis. 2022 Jul 13. doi: 10.1097/NMD.0000000000001531. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Virtual reality therapy (VRT) is a new psychotherapeutic approach integrating virtual reality technology and psychotherapy. This case series aimed to study effectiveness of VRT in treating psychological problems. We described four cases of first-line health care professionals with emerging clinically significant early psychological problems during the COVID-19 outbreak, and specifically received the VRT treatment. We compared the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 items (PHQ-9), Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7), PHQ-15, and Athens Insomnia Scale to evaluate psychological symptoms and sleep quality before and after sessions. All four cases showed a reduction in scale comparison. General scores of the PHQ-9 reduced 65%, GAD-7 reduced 52.17%, PHQ-15 decreased 38.17%, and scores of the Athens Insomnia Scale reduced 67.44%. Meanwhile, a reduction in depression, anxiety, psychosomatic, and sleeping symptoms was also found, which decreased 76.92% in general. These results are highly significant statistically. This case series demonstrated the effectiveness of VRT on psychological problems as a promising approach to apply on various psychological distress and disorders.

PMID:35849536 | DOI:10.1097/NMD.0000000000001531

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Exploring genotype by environment interaction on cassava yield and yield related traits using classical statistical methods

PLoS One. 2022 Jul 18;17(7):e0268189. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268189. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

Variety advancement decisions for root quality and yield-related traits in cassava are complex due to the variable patterns of genotype-by-environment interactions (GEI). Therefore, studies focused on the dissection of the existing patterns of GEI using linear-bilinear models such as Finlay-Wilkinson (FW), additive main effect and multiplicative interaction (AMMI), and genotype and genotype-by-environment (GGE) interaction models are critical in defining the target population of environments (TPEs) for future testing, selection, and advancement. This study assessed 36 elite cassava clones in 11 locations over three cropping seasons in the cassava breeding program of IITA based in Nigeria to quantify the GEI effects for root quality and yield-related traits. Genetic correlation coefficients and heritability estimates among environments found mostly intermediate to high values indicating high correlations with the major TPE. There was a differential clonal ranking among the environments indicating the existence of GEI as also revealed by the likelihood ratio test (LRT), which further confirmed the statistical model with the heterogeneity of error variances across the environments fit better. For all fitted models, we found the main effects of environment, genotype, and interaction significant for all observed traits except for dry matter content whose GEI sensitivity was marginally significant as found using the FW model. We identified TMS14F1297P0019 and TMEB419 as two topmost stable clones with a sensitivity values of 0.63 and 0.66 respectively using the FW model. However, GGE and AMMI stability value in conjunction with genotype selection index revealed that IITA-TMS-IBA000070 and TMS14F1036P0007 were the top-ranking clones combining both stability and yield performance measures. The AMMI-2 model clustered the testing environments into 6 mega-environments based on winning genotypes for fresh root yield. Alternatively, we identified 3 clusters of testing environments based on genotypic BLUPs derived from the random GEI component.

PMID:35849556 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0268189

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A 30-Day Adjunct Wellness Intervention for the Management of Extra-Articular Symptoms of Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Formative Study

J Evid Based Integr Med. 2022 Jan-Dec;27:2515690X221113330. doi: 10.1177/2515690X221113330.

ABSTRACT

Individuals with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) continually fall short of treatment targets using standard drug therapies alone. There is growing evidence that emphasizing physical and mental wellness is equally crucial for improving functioning among people with RA. The purpose of this formative study is to examine the feasibility of offering the wellness-based intervention (“KickStart30”) in patients with RA. Thirteen individuals with RA on targeted immune modulators (a biologic or JAK inhibitor) enrolled in the KickStart30 program. Participants completed self-report measures of RA-specific disability (eg, pain) and other functional areas (eg, mood) in a pre- versus post- intervention design. Paired samples t-tests (and Related-Samples Wilcoxon Signed Rank Tests for non-normal distributions) detected statistically significant results for 10 of 12 measures, including reductions in pain (M = 4.54 to M = 3.54; p = .025; BPI), functional disability (M = 0.94 to M = 0.73, p = .032; HAQ-II), cognitive and physical dysfunction (M = 25.46 to M = 13.54, p < .001; CPFQ), depressive symptoms (M = 9.31 to M = 5.54, p = .003; PHQ-9), anxiety (M = 5.69 to M = 3.23, p = .005; GAD-7), insomnia (M = 11.62 to M = 17.32, p = .007; Note: higher scores on the SCI indicate less insomnia), stress-related eating (M = 75.46 to M = 84.54, p = .021; Note: higher scores on the EADES indicate less stress-related eating), along with significant increases in mindfulness (M = 62.54 to M = 67.85, p = .040; MAAS), mental wellness (M = 4.46 to M = 5.69; HERO), and well-being (Md = 8.00 to Md = 5.00, p = .004; WHO-5). All significant measures had medium to large effect sizes (Cohen’s d). The study gives preliminary support for the possibility that the adjunct intervention may have an effect.

PMID:35849439 | DOI:10.1177/2515690X221113330

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Identifying Family and Unpaid Caregivers in Electronic Health Records: Descriptive Analysis

JMIR Form Res. 2022 Jul 18;6(7):e35623. doi: 10.2196/35623.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Most efforts to identify caregivers for research use passive approaches such as self-nomination. We describe an approach in which electronic health records (EHRs) can help identify, recruit, and increase diverse representations of family and other unpaid caregivers.

OBJECTIVE: Few health systems have implemented systematic processes for identifying caregivers. This study aimed to develop and evaluate an EHR-driven process for identifying veterans likely to have unpaid caregivers in a caregiver survey study. We additionally examined whether there were EHR-derived veteran characteristics associated with veterans having unpaid caregivers.

METHODS: We selected EHR home- and community-based referrals suggestive of veterans’ need for supportive care from friends or family. We identified veterans with these referrals across the 8 US Department of Veteran Affairs medical centers enrolled in our study. Phone calls to a subset of these veterans confirmed whether they had a caregiver, specifically an unpaid caregiver. We calculated the screening contact rate for unpaid caregivers of veterans using attempted phone screening and for those who completed phone screening. The veteran characteristics from the EHR were compared across referral and screening groups using descriptive statistics, and logistic regression was used to compare the likelihood of having an unpaid caregiver among veterans who completed phone screening.

RESULTS: During the study period, our EHR-driven process identified 12,212 veterans with home- and community-based referrals; 2134 (17.47%) veteran households were called for phone screening. Among the 2134 veterans called, 1367 (64.06%) answered the call, and 813 (38.1%) veterans had a caregiver based on self-report of the veteran, their caregiver, or another person in the household. The unpaid caregiver identification rate was 38.1% and 59.5% among those with an attempted phone screening and completed phone screening, respectively. Veterans had increased odds of having an unpaid caregiver if they were married (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.69, 95% CI 1.68-4.34), had respite care (adjusted OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.41-3.41), or had adult day health care (adjusted OR 3.69, 95% CI 1.60-10.00). Veterans with a dementia diagnosis (adjusted OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.00-1.89) or veteran-directed care referral (adjusted OR 1.95, 95% CI 0.97-4.20) were also suggestive of an association with having an unpaid caregiver.

CONCLUSIONS: The EHR-driven process to identify veterans likely to have unpaid caregivers is systematic and resource intensive. Approximately 60% (813/1367) of veterans who were successfully screened had unpaid caregivers. In the absence of discrete fields in the EHR, our EHR-driven process can be used to identify unpaid caregivers; however, incorporating caregiver identification fields into the EHR would support a more efficient and systematic identification of caregivers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClincalTrials.gov NCT03474380; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03474380.

PMID:35849430 | DOI:10.2196/35623

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The effects of wearing a mask on an exercise regimen

J Osteopath Med. 2022 Jul 14. doi: 10.1515/jom-2022-0045. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

CONTEXT: Masks have long been utilized to prevent the spread of airborne pathogens and diseases in the healthcare setting. Recently, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, mask use has been expanded to all public areas to help slow the spread of this virus. One such location where masks can be seen is gyms. While exercising, the needs of the body are altered due to the increased stress being placed upon it. Normal physiology is thus adjusted to meet these new demands and to maintain optimal functioning. Therefore, it is possible that adding a mask covering the mouth and nose while exercising could further exacerbate this physiologic alteration, causing potential concerns.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study is to identify the impact of mask use on normal perceived physiology (breathing, heart rate, temperature, exertion, stamina, and quality of workout) within the exercising population.

METHODS: To obtain data focused on the research question, a self-reporting, online, anonymous Qualtrics survey was administered in local gyms and social media outlets. A total of 280 total participants were recruited between the ages of 18 and 65 who have ever exercised while wearing a mask. All results were analyzed utilizing descriptive statistics, bivariate correlations, Mann-Whitney U tests, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. A Cronbach’s alpha was also calculated to check internal validity. The significance level utilized was p≤0.05.

RESULTS: Completion of a Kruskal-Wallis test revealed statistical significance regarding the perception of masks in general and the participants’ rating of the perceived physiological parameters (breathing: p<0.001; heart rate: p<0.001; temperature: p<0.001; exertion: p<0.001; stamina: p<0.001; and quality of workout: p<0.001), the duration of time the mask was utilized during the workout, and the participants’ rating of the perceived physiological parameters (breathing: p=0.001; heart rate: p=0.020; temperature: p<0.001; exertion: p<0.001; stamina: p=0.001; quality of workout: p<0.001; and perception of mask: p<0.001), and the change in the number of days that the participants exercised per week during the pandemic as well as some of the participants’ ratings of the perceived physiological parameters (breathing: p=0.042; exertion: p=0.015; stamina: p=0.027; and quality of workout: p=0.016).

CONCLUSIONS: Any alterations to normal physiology perception while exercising with a mask appear to be psychological and adaptive in nature. Masks alone did not contribute to the perception of their physiologic changes.

PMID:35849419 | DOI:10.1515/jom-2022-0045

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Patient and Clinician Decision Support to Increase Genetic Counseling for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Syndrome in Primary Care: A Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Jul 1;5(7):e2222092. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.22092.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: To promote the identification of women carrying BRCA1/2 variants, the US Preventive Services Task Force recommends that primary care clinicians screen asymptomatic women for an increased risk of carrying a BRCA1/2 variant risk.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of patient and clinician decision support about BRCA1/2 genetic testing compared with standard education alone.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This clustered randomized clinical trial was conducted at an academic medical center including 67 clinicians (unit of randomization) and 187 patients. Patient eligibility criteria included women aged 21 to 75 years with no history of breast or ovarian cancer, no prior genetic counseling or testing for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome (HBOC), and meeting family history criteria for BRCA1/2 genetic testing.

INTERVENTIONS: RealRisks decision aid for patients and the Breast Cancer Risk Navigation Tool decision support for clinicians. Patients scheduled a visit with their clinician within 6 months of enrollment.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was genetic counseling uptake at 6 months. Secondary outcomes were genetic testing uptake at 6 and 24 months, decision-making measures (perceived breast cancer risk, breast cancer worry, genetic testing knowledge, decision conflict) based upon patient surveys administered at baseline, 1 month, postclinic visit, and 6 months.

RESULTS: From December 2018 to February 2020, 187 evaluable patients (101 in the intervention group, 86 in the control group) were enrolled (mean [SD] age: 40.7 [13.2] years; 88 Hispanic patients [46.6%]; 15 non-Hispanic Black patients [8.1%]; 72 non-Hispanic White patients [38.9%]; 35 patients [18.9%] with high school education or less) and 164 (87.8%) completed the trial. There was no significant difference in genetic counseling uptake at 6 months between the intervention group (20 patients [19.8%]) and control group (10 patients [11.6%]; difference, 8.2 percentage points; OR, 1.88 [95% CI, 0.82-4.30]; P = .14). Genetic testing uptake within 6 months was also statistically nonsignificant (13 patients [12.9%] in the intervention group vs 7 patients [8.1%] in the control group; P = .31). At 24 months, genetic testing uptake was 31 patients (30.7%) in intervention vs 18 patients (20.9%) in control (P = .14). Comparing decision-making measures between groups at baseline to 6 months, there were significant decreases in perceived breast cancer risk and in breast cancer worry (standard mean differences = -0.48 and -0.40, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This randomized clinical trial did not find a significant increase in genetic counseling uptake among patients who received patient and clinician decision support vs those who received standard education, although more than one-third of the ethnically diverse women enrolled in the intervention underwent genetic counseling. These findings suggest that the main advantage for these high-risk women is the ability to opt for screening and preventive services to decrease their cancer risk.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03470402.

PMID:35849397 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.22092