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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Association Between Folic Acid Prescription Fills and Suicide Attempts and Intentional Self-harm Among Privately Insured US Adults

JAMA Psychiatry. 2022 Sep 28. doi: 10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2022.2990. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Suicide is a leading cause of death in the United States, having increased more than 30% from 2000 to 2018. An inexpensive, safe, widely available treatment for preventing suicidal behavior could reverse this trend.

OBJECTIVE: To confirm a previous signal for decreased risk of suicide attempt following prescription fills for folic acid in a national pharmacoepidemiologic study of patients treated with folic acid.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A within-person exposure-only cohort design was used to study the dynamic association between folic acid (vitamin B9) prescription fills over a 24-month period and suicide attempts and intentional self-harm. Data were collected from a pharmacoepidemiologic database of US medical claims (MarketScan) for patients with private health insurance who filled a folic acid prescription between 2012 and 2017. The same analysis was repeated with a control supplement (cyanocobalamin, vitamin B12). Data were analyzed from August 2021 to June 2022.

EXPOSURE: Folic acid prescription fills.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE: Suicide attempt or intentional self-harm resulting in an outpatient visit or inpatient admission as identified by codes from the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revisions, Clinical Modification.

RESULTS: Data on 866 586 patients were collected; 704 514 (81.30%) were female, and 90 296 (10.42%) were 60 years and older. Overall, there were 261 suicidal events during months covered by a folic acid prescription (5 521 597 person-months) for a rate of 4.73 per 100 000 person-months, compared with 895 suicidal events during months without folic acid (8 432 340) for a rate of 10.61 per 100 000 person-months. Adjusting for age and sex, diagnoses related to suicidal behavior, diagnoses related to folic acid deficiency, folate-reducing medications, history of folate-reducing medications, and history of suicidal events, the hazard ratio (HR) for folic acid for suicide events was 0.56 (95% CI, 0.48-0.65), with similar results for the modal dosage of 1 mg of folic acid per day (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.48-0.69) and women of childbearing age (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.50-0.73). A duration-response analysis (1-mg dosage) revealed a 5% decrease in suicidal events per month of additional treatment (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.93-0.97). The same analysis for the negative control, cyanocobalamin, found no association with suicide attempt (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.80-1.27).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This large-scale pharmacoepidemiologic study of folic acid found a beneficial association in terms of lower rates of suicide attempts. The results warrant the conduct of a randomized clinical trial with suicidal ideation and behavior as outcomes of interest. If confirmed, folic acid may be a safe, inexpensive, and widely available treatment for suicidal ideation and behavior.

PMID:36169979 | DOI:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2022.2990

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Within-City Variation in Ambient Carbon Monoxide Concentrations: Leveraging Low-Cost Monitors in a Spatiotemporal Modeling Framework

Environ Health Perspect. 2022 Sep;130(9):97008. doi: 10.1289/EHP10889. Epub 2022 Sep 28.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Based on human and animal experimental studies, exposure to ambient carbon monoxide (CO) may be associated with cardiovascular disease outcomes, but epidemiological evidence of this link is limited. The number and distribution of ground-level regulatory agency monitors are insufficient to characterize fine-scale variations in CO concentrations.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a daily, high-resolution ambient CO exposure prediction model at the city scale.

METHODS: We developed a CO prediction model in Baltimore, Maryland, based on a spatiotemporal statistical algorithm with regulatory agency monitoring data and measurements from calibrated low-cost gas monitors. We also evaluated the contribution of three novel parameters to model performance: high-resolution meteorological data, satellite remote sensing data, and copollutant (PM2.5, NO2, and NOx) concentrations.

RESULTS: The CO model had spatial cross-validation (CV) R2 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.70 and 0.02 parts per million (ppm), respectively; the model had temporal CV R2 and RMSE of 0.61 and 0.04 ppm, respectively. The predictions revealed spatially resolved CO hot spots associated with population, traffic, and other nonroad emission sources (e.g., railroads and airport), as well as sharp concentration decreases within short distances from primary roads.

DISCUSSION: The three novel parameters did not substantially improve model performance, suggesting that, on its own, our spatiotemporal modeling framework based on geographic features was reliable and robust. As low-cost air monitors become increasingly available, this approach to CO concentration modeling can be generalized to resource-restricted environments to facilitate comprehensive epidemiological research. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10889.

PMID:36169978 | DOI:10.1289/EHP10889

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

MRI-Based Metastatic Nodal Number and Associated Nomogram Improve Stratification of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients: Potential Indications for Individual Induction Chemotherapy

J Magn Reson Imaging. 2022 Sep 28. doi: 10.1002/jmri.28435. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Metastatic lymph nodal number (LNN) is associated with the survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC); however, counting multiple nodes is cumbersome.

PURPOSE: To explore LNN threshold and evaluate its use in risk stratification and induction chemotherapy (IC) indication.

STUDY TYPE: Retrospective.

POPULATION: A total of 792 radiotherapy-treated NPC patients (N classification: N0 182, N1 438, N2 113, N3 59; training group: 396, validation group: 396; receiving IC: 390).

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: T1-, T2- and postcontrast T1-weighted fast spin echo MRI at 1.5 or 3.0 T.

ASSESSMENT: Nomogram with (model B) or without (model A) LNN was constructed to evaluate the 5-year overall (OS), distant metastasis-free (DMFS), and progression-free survival (PFS) for the group as a whole and N1 stage subgroup. High- and low-risk groups were divided (above vs below LNN- or model B-threshold); their response to IC was evaluated among advanced patients in stage III/IV.

STATISTICAL TESTS: Maximally selected rank, univariate and multivariable Cox analysis identified the optimal LNN threshold and other variables. Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and 2-fold cross-validation evaluated discriminative ability of models. Matched-pair analysis compared survival outcomes of adding IC or not. A P value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS: Median follow-up duration was 62.1 months. LNN ≥ 4 was independently associated with decreased 5-year DMFS, OS, and PFS in entire patients or N1 subgroup. Compared to model A, model B (adding LNN, LNN ≥ 4 vs <4) presented superior C-indexes in the training (0.755 vs 0.727) and validation groups (0.676 vs 0.642) for discriminating DMFS. High-risk patients benefited from IC with improved post-IC response and OS, but low-risk patients did not (P = 0.785 and 0.690, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS: LNN ≥ 4 is an independent risk stratification factor of worse survival in entire or N1 staging NPC patients. LNN ≥ 4 or the associated nomogram has potential to identify high-risk patients requiring IC.

EVIDENCE LEVEL: 4 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: 4.

PMID:36169976 | DOI:10.1002/jmri.28435

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Cost-effectiveness of an Emergency Department-Based Intensive Care Unit

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Sep 1;5(9):e2233649. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.33649.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Value in health care is quality per unit cost (V = Q/C), and an emergency department-based intensive care unit (ED-ICU) model has been associated with improved quality. To assess the value of this care delivery model, it is essential to determine the incremental direct cost of care.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of an ED-ICU with inflation-adjusted change in mean direct cost of care, net revenue, and direct margin per ED patient encounter.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective economic analysis evaluated the cost of care delivery to patients in the ED before and after deployment of the Joyce and Don Massey Family Foundation Emergency Critical Care Center, an ED-ICU, on February 16, 2015, at a large academic medical center in the US with approximately 75 000 adult ED visits per year. The pre-ED-ICU cohort was defined as all documented ED visits by patients 18 years or older with a complete financial record from September 8, 2012, through June 30, 2014 (660 days); the post-ED-ICU cohort, all visits from July 1, 2015, through April 21, 2017 (660 days). Fiscal year 2015 was excluded from analysis to phase in the new care model. Statistical analysis was performed March 1 through December 30, 2021.

EXPOSURES: Implementation of an ED-ICU.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Inflation-adjusted direct cost of care, net revenue, and direct margin per patient encounter in the ED.

RESULTS: A total of 234 884 ED visits during the study period were analyzed, with 115 052 patients (54.7% women) in the pre-ED-ICU cohort and 119 832 patients (54.5% women) in the post-ED-ICU cohort. The post-ED-ICU cohort was older (mean [SD] age, 49.1 [19.9] vs 47.8 [19.6] years; P < .001), required more intensive respiratory support (2.2% vs 1.1%; P < .001) and more vasopressor use (0.5% vs 0.2%; P < .001), and had a higher overall case mix index (mean [SD], 1.7 [2.0] vs 1.5 [1.7]; P < .001). Implementation of the ED-ICU was associated with similar inflation-adjusted total direct cost per ED encounter (pre-ED-ICU, mean [SD], $4875 [$15 175]; post-ED-ICU, $4877 [$17 400]; P = .98). Inflation-adjusted net revenue per encounter increased by 7.0% (95% CI, 3.4%-10.6%; P < .001), and inflation-adjusted direct margin per encounter increased by 46.6% (95% CI, 32.1%-61.2%; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Implementation of an ED-ICU was associated with no significant change in inflation-adjusted total direct cost per ED encounter. Holding delivery costs constant while improving quality demonstrates improved value via the ED-ICU model of care.

PMID:36169958 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.33649

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Association of Interprofessional Discharge Planning Using an Electronic Health Record Tool With Hospital Length of Stay Among Patients with Multimorbidity: A Nonrandomized Controlled Trial

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Sep 1;5(9):e2233667. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.33667.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Whether interprofessional collaboration is effective and safe in decreasing hospital length of stay remains controversial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the outcomes and safety associated with an electronic interprofessional-led discharge planning tool vs standard discharge planning to safely reduce length of stay among medical inpatients with multimorbidity.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This multicenter prospective nonrandomized controlled trial used interrupted time series analysis to examine medical acute hospitalizations at 82 hospitals in Switzerland. It was conducted from February 2017 through January 2019. Data analysis was conducted from March 2021 to July 2022.

INTERVENTION: After a 12-month preintervention phase (February 2017 through January 2018), an electronic interprofessional-led discharge planning tool was implemented in February 2018 in 7 intervention hospitals in addition to standard discharge planning.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Mixed-effects segmented regression analyses were used to compare monthly changes in trends of length of stay, hospital readmission, in-hospital mortality, and facility discharge after the implementation of the tool with changes in trends among control hospitals.

RESULTS: There were 54 695 hospitalizations at intervention hospitals, with 27 219 in the preintervention period (median [IQR] age, 72 [59-82] years; 14 400 [52.9%] men) and 27 476 in the intervention phase (median [IQR] age, 72 [59-82] years; 14 448 [52.6%] men) and 438 791 at control hospitals, with 216 261 in the preintervention period (median [IQR] age, 74 [60-83] years; 109 770 [50.8%] men) and 222 530 in the intervention phase (median [IQR] age, 74 [60-83] years; 113 053 [50.8%] men). The mean (SD) length of stay in the preintervention phase was 7.6 (7.1) days for intervention hospitals and 7.5 (7.4) days for control hospitals. During the preintervention phase, population-averaged length of stay decreased by -0.344 hr/mo (95% CI, -0.599 to -0.090 hr/mo) in control hospitals; however, no change in trend was observed among intervention hospitals (-0.034 hr/mo; 95% CI, -0.646 to 0.714 hr/mo; difference in slopes, P = .09). Over the intervention phase (February 2018 through January 2019), length of stay remained unchanged in control hospitals (slope, -0.011 hr/mo; 95% CI, -0.281 to 0.260 hr/mo; change in slope, P = .03), but decreased steadily among intervention hospitals by -0.879 hr/mo (95% CI, -1.607 to -0.150 hr/mo; change in slope, P = .04, difference in slopes, P = .03). Safety analyses showed no change in trends of hospital readmission, in-hospital mortality, or facility discharge over the whole study time.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this nonrandomized controlled trial, the implementation of an electronic interprofessional-led discharge planning tool was associated with a decline in length of stay without an increase in hospital readmission, in-hospital mortality, or facility discharge.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN83274049.

PMID:36169957 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.33667

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Cut-offs for thyroid peroxidase and thyroglobulin antibodies in early pregnancy

Eur Thyroid J. 2022 Sep 1:ETJ-22-0142. doi: 10.1530/ETJ-22-0142. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Thyroid disease in women of reproductive age is mainly of autoimmune origin, and thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPO-Ab) as well as thyroglobulin antibodies (Tg-Ab) are key markers. Adding to this, much focus in pregnancy is on euthyroid women who are thyroid antibody positive. Evidence to substantiate the cut-offs for definition of thyroid autoantibody positivity in early pregnant women is warranted.

METHODS: Stored serum samples from 14,030 Danish pregnant women were used for measurement of TPO-Ab, Tg-Ab, TSH, and free thyroxine (ADVIA Centaur XPT, Siemens Healthineers, Erlangen, Germany). Among all women, a reference cohort of 10,905 individuals was identified for establishment of antibody cut-offs. Percentile cut-offs for TPO-Ab and Tg-Ab determined using Regression on Order Statistics (the reference cohort). The established cut-offs were then applied (the full cohort), and frequencies of early pregnancy as well as later diagnosis of hypothyroidism were evaluated.

RESULTS: The highest established cut-offs (95th, 97.5th, and 99th percentile) were 59, 68, and 81 U/mL for TPO-Ab, and 33, 41, and 52 U/mL for Tg-Ab. When the cut-offs were applied in the full cohort, 11.0%, 10.2%, and 9.7% were TPO-Ab positive, whereas 13.3%, 12.3%, and 11.2% were Tg-Ab positive. Antibody positive women (TPO-Ab and/or Tg-Ab) had higher median TSH and were more like to have hypothyroidism in early pregnancy and to be diagnosed with hypothyroidism during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS: This large study established and evaluated pregnancy-specific cut-offs for TPO-Ab and Tg-Ab. The findings are important regarding classification of exposure in pregnancy and assessment of thyroid autoimmunity per se.

PMID:36169923 | DOI:10.1530/ETJ-22-0142

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Treatment with combined resveratrol and myoinositol ameliorates endocrine, metabolic alterations and perceived stress response in women with PCOS: a double-blind randomized clinical trial

Endocrine. 2022 Sep 28. doi: 10.1007/s12020-022-03198-2. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The present study aimed to assess whether treatment with combined resveratrol and myoinositol is more effective in ameliorating the altered parameters associated with PCOS when compared to the combined metformin and pioglitazone therapy.

METHOD: One hundred and ten obese, oligo-anovulatory PCOS women, aged 20-35 years were randomly assigned into two treatment arms. Participants in arm-1 (n = 55), received combination of metformin and pioglitazone (500 mg and 15 mg, respectively), twice daily, while those in arm-2 (n = 55) received combination of resveratrol and myoinositol (1000 mg and 1000 mg, respectively) twice daily for 12 weeks. Evaluations performed at baseline were repeated after 3 months of therapy. The endocrine and metabolic derangements were assessed by measuring serum levels of testosterone, luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), adiponectin and insulin using ELISA. Cohen’s perceived stress scale (PSS) was employed as a subjective measure of stress.

RESULTS: Pre-treatment PCOS women in both the arms (arm-1 and arm-2) had remarkably elevated serum testosterone and insulin concentrations, low serum adiponectin and high perceived stress response scores. The treatment reduced the altered endocrine indices in arm-2 (resveratrol and myoinositol) participants, manifested by statistically significant reduction in serum testosterone level (p = 0.001) and notably increased serum adiponectin level (p = 0.001). Interestingly, the hormonal profile, including serum LH and FSH levels also decreased (p < 0.001) along with a marked reduction in the ovarian volume (p = 0.001) in arm-2 participants. There was a significant reduction in weight (<0.001), BMI (p < 0.001) and an improvement in waist-hip ratio (p < 0.001) in arm-2 participants compared to arm-1 group. The PSS scores of the arm-2 subjects improved significantly (p < 0.001) whereas, the Ferrimen-Gallwey score was improved in both the arms (arm-1 and arm-2; p = 0.010 and 0.008 respectively) however, the change was highly significant in arm-2. Interestingly, the menstrual regularity was 81.4% in arm-2 while 18.2% in arm-1. We conclude that the therapeutic intervention with combined resveratrol and myoinositol is more effective in ameliorating altered endocrine, metabolic indices and stress burden and could be of clinical importance in high risk group of obese, oligo-anovulatory married PCOS affected women.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTials.gov Trial No: NCT04867252. Registered 24 April, 2021, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04867252.

PMID:36169918 | DOI:10.1007/s12020-022-03198-2

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Hansch-Type QSAR Models for the Rational Design of MAO Inhibitors: Basic Principles and Methodology

Methods Mol Biol. 2023;2558:207-220. doi: 10.1007/978-1-0716-2643-6_16.

ABSTRACT

Hansch-type regression analysis enables the derivation of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) equations correlating bioactivity data with physicochemical parameters accounting for hydrophobicity, electronic properties, and steric effects of molecules or functional groups (substituents). Two datasets of MAO A and B inhibitors were enrolled in prototypical workflows employing multiparametric stepwise regression analysis, which includes linear and nonlinear (generally quadratic) terms. The optimal choice of variables (and/or combinations thereof) along with statistical validation yielded two robust equations describing MAO B potency and B/A selectivity, which included three and one parameter(s), respectively, and explained more than 80% of y-variance (r2) with low standard deviation (s) and good statistical significance (F, Fisher value).

PMID:36169866 | DOI:10.1007/978-1-0716-2643-6_16

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Evaluating bioretention scale effect on stormwater retention and pollutant removal

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Sep 28. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23237-9. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Bioretention column studies are commonly used in laboratory to assess the performance of such structures in removal of pollutants and to investigate different conceptions aiming to increase their efficiency. However, no studies were found recommending suitable diameters or sizes, or about the uncertainties related to the transfer of results among the different scales (i.e., among different experiments or from the laboratory to field scale). This study assessed the effect of the varying diameters in experimental bioretention columns on the retention and removal of pollutants from stormwater runoff. Three sets of columns with diameters of 400 mm, 300 mm, and 200 mm were assessed. The results showed that runoff retention (R) was affected by the time interval between stormwater events, but not by the bioretention diameter, although the diameter influenced the variability of R results. The removal of TSS (95%), nitrite (98%), and phosphate (96%) did present variability among the different bioretention diameters. However, the nitrate removal was statistically different among the bioretention columns, with removal efficiency above 50% in the 300-mm and 200-mm columns, while the 400-mm columns acted as a source of nitrate by increasing its concentration in the outflow stormwater by up to 285%, suggesting that the removal of this pollutant can be influenced by the scale effect of the bioretention columns and the experiments with small bioretention diameters may not provide reliable results.

PMID:36169844 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-022-23237-9

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China’s experience in developing green finance to reduce carbon emissions: from spatial econometric model evidence

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Sep 28. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23246-8. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study is to attempt to assess the effect of green finance in reducing carbon emissions in China, analyze the transformative role of policy impact in the development of green finance markets, and investigate the impact mechanisms of how green finance affects carbon dioxide emissions. Our time frame from 2007 to 2018 is selected for the empirical study by integrating the availability of data due to the scarcity of relevant statistics in the early days of green finance. Location of this study is in China where 30 provinces are included, excluding Tibet due to severe data shortage. As for methodology, we construct a green finance evaluation index system containing five indicators by entropy weight method, choose dynamic spatial Durbin model (DSDM) for empirical research, and perform mechanism analysis of restructuring industry and greening technology as intermediary channel. Our findings demonstrate that green finance in China does significantly reduce carbon emissions, and its spatial spillover effect and long-term effect are also verified. Furthermore, green finance tends to reduce CO2 emissions through restructuring industry and greening technology. Correspondingly, policy implications are recommended. First, improving green financial market and strengthening information disclosure of green financial market are crucial to facilitate green finance development. Local governments formulate carbon emission reduction strategies focusing on space by joint conference or coordination mechanism like river head system. Lastly, a mechanism should be developed to strengthen the transformation of industrial structure and to promote greening technology.

PMID:36169832 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-022-23246-8