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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991-2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022 Oct 14;16(10):e0010795. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010795. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Mycetoma is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions favouring arid areas with low humidity and a short rainy season. Sudan is one of the highly endemic countries for mycetoma. Estimating the population at risk and the number of cases is critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services. In this study, we have combined a large dataset of mycetoma cases recorded by the Mycetoma Research Centre (MRC) in Sudan over 28 years (1991-2018) with a collection of environmental and water and hygiene-related datasets in a geostatistical framework to produce estimates of the disease burden across the country. We developed geostatistical models to predict the number of cases of actinomycetoma and eumycetoma in areas considered environmentally suitable for the two mycetoma forms. Then used the raster dataset (gridded map) with the population estimates for 2020 to compute the potentially affected population since 1991. The geostatistical models confirmed this heterogeneous and distinct distribution of the estimated cases of eumycetoma and actinomycetoma across Sudan. For eumycetoma, these higher-risk areas were smaller and scattered across Al Jazirah, Khartoum, White Nile and Sennar states, while for actinomycetoma a higher risk for infection is shown across the rural districts of North and West Kurdufan. Nationally, we estimated 63,825 people (95%CI: 13,693 to 197,369) to have been suffering from mycetoma since 1991 in Sudan,51,541 people (95%CI: 9,893-166,073) with eumycetoma and 12,284 people (95%CI: 3,800-31,296) with actinomycetoma. In conclusion, the risk of mycetoma in Sudan is particularly high in certain restricted areas, but cases are ubiquitous across all states. Both prevention and treatment services are required to address the burden. Such work provides a guide for future control and prevention programs for mycetoma, highly endemic areas are clearly targeted, and resources are directed to areas with high demand.

PMID:36240229 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010795

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Hierarchical amplitude modulation structures and rhythm patterns: Comparing Western musical genres, song, and nature sounds to Babytalk

PLoS One. 2022 Oct 14;17(10):e0275631. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275631. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

Statistical learning of physical stimulus characteristics is important for the development of cognitive systems like language and music. Rhythm patterns are a core component of both systems, and rhythm is key to language acquisition by infants. Accordingly, the physical stimulus characteristics that yield speech rhythm in “Babytalk” may also describe the hierarchical rhythmic relationships that characterize human music and song. Computational modelling of the amplitude envelope of “Babytalk” (infant-directed speech, IDS) using a demodulation approach (Spectral-Amplitude Modulation Phase Hierarchy model, S-AMPH) can describe these characteristics. S-AMPH modelling of Babytalk has shown previously that bands of amplitude modulations (AMs) at different temporal rates and their phase relations help to create its structured inherent rhythms. Additionally, S-AMPH modelling of children’s nursery rhymes shows that different rhythm patterns (trochaic, iambic, dactylic) depend on the phase relations between AM bands centred on ~2 Hz and ~5 Hz. The importance of these AM phase relations was confirmed via a second demodulation approach (PAD, Probabilistic Amplitude Demodulation). Here we apply both S-AMPH and PAD to demodulate the amplitude envelopes of Western musical genres and songs. Quasi-rhythmic and non-human sounds found in nature (birdsong, rain, wind) were utilized for control analyses. We expected that the physical stimulus characteristics in human music and song from an AM perspective would match those of IDS. Given prior speech-based analyses, we also expected that AM cycles derived from the modelling may identify musical units like crotchets, quavers and demi-quavers. Both models revealed an hierarchically-nested AM modulation structure for music and song, but not nature sounds. This AM modulation structure for music and song matched IDS. Both models also generated systematic AM cycles yielding musical units like crotchets and quavers. Both music and language are created by humans and shaped by culture. Acoustic rhythm in IDS and music appears to depend on many of the same physical characteristics, facilitating learning.

PMID:36240225 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0275631

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Unraveling water monitoring association towards weather attributes for response proportions data: A unit-Lindley learning

PLoS One. 2022 Oct 14;17(10):e0275841. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275841. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

Learning techniques involve unraveling regression structures, which aim to analyze in a probabilistic frame the associations across variables of interest. Thus, analyzing fraction and/or proportion data may not be adequate with standard regression procedures, since the linear regression models generally assume that the dependent (outcome) variable is normally distributed. In this manner, we propose a statistical model called unit-Lindley regression model, for the purpose of Statistical Process Control (SPC). As a result, a new control chart tool was proposed, which targets the water monitoring dynamic, as well as the monitoring of relative humidity, per minute, of Copiapó city, located in Atacama Desert (one of the driest non-polar places on Earth), north of Chile. Our results show that variables such as wind speed, 24-hour temperature variation, and solar radiation are useful to describe the amount of relative humidity in the air. Additionally, Information Visualization (InfoVis) tools help to understand the time seasonality of the water particle phenomenon of the region in near real-time analysis. The developed methodology also helps to label unusual events, such as Camanchaca, and other water monitoring-related events.

PMID:36240216 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0275841

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Prevalence and concentration of Campylobacter in faeces of dairy cows: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PLoS One. 2022 Oct 14;17(10):e0276018. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0276018. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

The consumption of raw milk from dairy cows has caused multiple food-borne outbreaks of campylobacteriosis in the European Union (EU) since 2011. Cross-contamination of raw milk through faeces is an important vehicle for transmission of Campylobacter to consumers. This systematic review and meta-analysis, aimed to summarize data on the prevalence and concentration of Campylobacter in faeces of dairy cows. Suitable scientific articles published up to July 2021 were identified through a systematic literature search and subjected to screening and quality assessment. Fifty-three out of 1338 identified studies were eligible for data extraction and 44 were further eligible for meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence was calculated in two different meta-analytic models: a simple model based on one average prevalence estimate per study and a multilevel meta-analytic model that included all prevalence outcomes reported in each study (including different subgroups of e.g. health status and age of dairy cows). The results of the two models were significantly different with a pooled prevalence estimate of 29%, 95% CI [23-36%] and 51%, 95% CI [44-57%], respectively. The effect of sub-groups on prevalence were analyzed with a multilevel mixed-effect model which showed a significant effect of the faecal collection methods and Campylobacter species on the prevalence. A meta-analysis on concentration data could not be performed due to the limited availability of data. This systematic review highlights important data gaps and limitations in current studies and variation of prevalence outcomes between available studies. The included studies used a variety of methods for sampling, data collection and analysis of Campylobacter that added uncertainty to the pooled prevalence estimates. Nevertheless, the performed meta-analysis improved our understanding of Campylobacter prevalence in faeces of dairy cows and is considered a valuable basis for the further development of quantitative microbiological risk assessment models for Campylobacter in (raw) milk and food products thereof.

PMID:36240215 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0276018

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Risk factors and recurrence of cause-specific postpartum hemorrhage: A population-based study

PLoS One. 2022 Oct 14;17(10):e0275879. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275879. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To explore risk profiles of the different types of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH >500ml or severe PPH >1500ml) and their recurrence risks in a subsequent delivery.

METHODS: With data from The Medical Birth Registry of Norway and Statistics Norway we performed a population-based cohort study including all singleton deliveries in Norway from 1967-2017. Multilevel logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratio (OR), with 95% confidence interval (CI), with different PPH types (PPH >500ml or PPH >1500ml (severe PPH) combined with retained placenta, uterine atony, obstetric trauma, dystocia, or undefined cause) as outcomes.

RESULT: We identified 277 746 PPH cases of a total of 3 003 025 births (9.3%) from 1967 to 2017. Retained placenta (and/or membranes) was most often registered as severe PPH (29.3%). Maternal, fetal, and obstetric characteristics showed different associations with the PPH types. Male sex of the neonate was associated with reduced risk of PPH. This effect was strongest on PPH due to retained placenta (adjusted OR, (aOR): 0.80, 95% CI 0.78-0.82), atony (aOR 0.92, 95% CI: 0.90-0.93) and PPH with undefined cause (aOR 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95-0.97). Previous cesarean section showed a strong association with PPH due to dystocia (aOR of 13.2, 95% CI: 12.5-13.9). Recurrence risks were highest for the same type: PPH associated with dystocia (aOR: 6.8, 95% CI: 6.3-7.4), retained placenta and/or membranes (aOR: 5.9, 95% CI: 5.5-6.4), atony (aOR: 4.0, 95% CI: 3.8-4.2), obstetric trauma (aOR: 3.9, 95% CI: 3.5-4.3) and PPH of undefined cause (aOR: 2.2, 95% CI: 2.1-2.3).

CONCLUSION: Maternal, fetal and obstetric characteristics had differential effects on types of PPH. Recurrence differed considerably between PPH types. Retained placenta was most frequently registered with severe PPH, and showed strongest effect of sex; delivery of a boy was associated with lower risk of PPH. Previous cesarean increased the risk of PPH due to dystocia.

PMID:36240210 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0275879

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Corneal epithelium in keratoconus underexpresses active NRF2 and a subset of oxidative stress-related genes

PLoS One. 2022 Oct 14;17(10):e0273807. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0273807. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

Keratoconus (KC) is a multifactorial progressive ectatic disorder characterized by local thinning of the cornea, leading to decreased visual acuity due to irregular astigmatism and opacities. Despite the evolution of advanced imaging methods, the exact etiology of KC remains unknown. Our aim was to investigate the involvement of corneal epithelium in the pathophysiology of the disease. Corneal epithelial samples were collected from 23 controls and from 2 cohorts of patients with KC: 22 undergoing corneal crosslinking (early KC) and 6 patients before penetrating keratoplasty (advanced KC). The expression of genes involved in the epidermal terminal differentiation program and of the oxidative stress pathway was assessed by real time PCR analysis. Presence of some of the differentially expressed transcripts was confirmed at protein level using immunofluorescence on controls and advanced KC additional corneal samples. We found statistically significant under-expression in early KC samples of some genes known to be involved in the mechanical resistance of the epidermis (KRT16, KRT14, SPRR1A, SPRR2A, SPRR3, TGM1 and TGM5) and in oxidative stress pathways (NRF2, HMOX1 and HMOX2), as compared to controls. In advanced KC samples, expression of SPRR2A and HMOX1 was reduced. Decreased expression of keratin (KRT)16 and KRT14 proteins was observed. Moreover, differential localization was noted for involucrin, another protein involved in the epidermis mechanical properties. Finally, we observed an immunofluorescence staining for the active form of NRF2 in control epithelia that was reduced in KC epithelia. These results suggest a defect in the mechanical resistance and the oxidative stress defense possibly mediated via the NRF2 pathway in the corneal keratoconic epithelium.

PMID:36240204 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0273807

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A measurement invariance analysis of selected Opioid Overdose Knowledge Scale (OOKS) items among bystanders and first responders

PLoS One. 2022 Oct 14;17(10):e0271418. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271418. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

The Opioid Overdose Knowledge Scale (OOKS) is widely used as an adjunct to opioid education and naloxone distribution (OEND) for assessing pre- and post-training knowledge. However, the extent to which the OOKS performs comparably for bystander and first responder groups has not been well determined. We used exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) to assess the measurement invariance of an OOKS item subset when used as an OEND training pre-test. We used secondary analysis of pre-test data collected from 446 first responders and 1,349 bystanders (N = 1,795) attending OEND trainings conducted by two county public health departments. Twenty-four items were selected by practitioner/trainer consensus from the original 45-item OOKS instrument with an additional 2 removed owing to low response variation. We used exploratory factor analysis (EFA) followed by ESEM to identify a factor structure, which we assessed for configural, metric, and scalar measurement invariance by participant group using the 22 dichotomous items (correct/incorrect) as factor indicators. EFA identified a 3-factor model consisting of items assessing: basic overdose risk information, signs of an overdose, and rescue procedures/advanced overdose risk information. Model fit by ESEM estimation versus confirmatory factor analysis showed the ESEM model afforded a better fit. Measurement invariance analyses indicated the 3-factor model fit the data across all levels of invariance per standard fit statistic metrics. The reduced set of 22 OOKS items appears to offer comparable measurement of pre-training knowledge on opioid overdose risks, signs of an overdose, and rescue procedures for both bystanders and first responders.

PMID:36240201 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0271418

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Association of anthropometric indices with the development of multimorbidity in middle-aged and older adults: A retrospective cohort study

PLoS One. 2022 Oct 14;17(10):e0276216. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0276216. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have explored the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and multimorbidity. However, the relationship between other obesity indicators and their dynamic changes and multimorbidity has not been systematically estimated. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association of BMI and other obesity indicators, including waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), waist divided by height0.5 (WHT.5R), and body roundness index (BRI) and their changes and the risk of multimorbidity in middle-aged and older adults through a retrospective cohort study.

METHODS: Data collected from annual health examination dataset in the Jinshui during 2017 and 2021. Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to evaluate the effect of baseline and dynamic changes in the anthropometric indices on the risk of multimorbidity.

RESULTS: A total of 75,028 individuals were included in the study, and 5,886 participants developed multimorbidity during the follow-up. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed a progressive increase in the risk of multimorbidity with increasing anthropometric indicators (BMI, WC, WHtR, WHT.5R, and BRI) (all P<0.001). Regardless of general obesity status at baseline, increased WC was associated with a high risk of multimorbidity. Compared to the subjects with baseline BMI<24 kg/m2 and WC<90 (men)/80 (women), the HRs (95% CI) of the baseline BMI<24 kg/m2 and WC≥90 (men)/80 (women) group and BMI≥24 kg/m2 and WC≥90 (men)/80 (women) group were 1.31 (1.08, 1.61) and 1.82 (1.68, 1.97), respectively. In addition, the dynamics of WC could reflect the risk of multimorbidity. When subjects with baseline WC<90 (men)/80 (women) progressed to WC≥90 (men)/80 (women) during follow-up, the risk of multimorbidity significantly increased (HR = 1.78; 95% CI, 1.64, 1.95), while the risk of multimorbidity tended to decrease when people with abnormal WC at baseline reversed to normal at follow-up (HR = 1.40; 95% CI, 1.26, 1.54) compared to those who still exhibited abnormal WC at follow-up (HR = 2.00; 95% CI, 1.82, 2.18).

CONCLUSIONS: Central obesity is an independent and alterable risk factor for the occurrence of multimorbidity in middle-aged and elderly populations. In addition to the clinical measurement of BMI, the measurement of the central obesity index WC may provide additional benefits for the identification of multimorbidity in the Chinese middle-aged and elderly populations.

PMID:36240163 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0276216

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A systemic review and network meta-analysis of accuracy of intraocular lens power calculation formulas in primary angle-closure conditions

PLoS One. 2022 Oct 14;17(10):e0276286. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0276286. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: For primary angle-closure and angle-closure glaucoma, the fact that refractive error sometimes deviates from predictions after intraocular lens (IOL) implantation is familiar to cataract surgeons. Since controversy remains in the accuracy of IOL power calculation formulas, both traditional and network meta-analysis on formula accuracy were conducted in patients with primary angle-closure conditions.

METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted through Aug 2022, focusing on studies on intraocular lens power calculation in primary angle-closure (PAC) and primary angle-closure glaucoma (PACG). A systemic review and network meta-analysis was performed. Quality of studies were assessed. Primary outcomes were the mean absolute errors (MAE) and the percentages of eyes with a prediction error within ±0.50 diopiters (D) or ±1.00 D (% ±0.50/1.00 D) by different formulas.

RESULTS: Six retrospective studies involving 419 eyes and 8 formulas (Barrett Universal II, Kane, SRK/T, Hoffer Q, Haigis, Holladay I, RBF 3.0 and LSF) were included. SRK/T was used as a reference as it had been investigated in all the studies included. Direct comparison showed that none of the involved formula outperformed or was defeated by SRK/T significantly in terms of either MAE or % ±0.50/1.00 D (all P>0.05). Network comparison and ranking possibilities disclosed BUII, Kane, RBF 3.0 with statistically insignificant advantage. No significant publication bias was detected by network funnel plot.

CONCLUSIONS: No absolute advantage was disclosed among the formulas involved in this study for PAC/PACG eyes. Further carefully designed studies are warranted to evaluate IOL calculation formulae in this target population.

TRAIL REGISTRATION: Registration: PROSEPRO ID: CRD42022326541.

PMID:36240196 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0276286

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Commitment to protective measures during the COVID-19 pandemic in Syria: A nationwide cross-sectional study

PLoS One. 2022 Oct 14;17(10):e0275669. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275669. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 continues to impose itself on all populations of the world. Given the slow pace of vaccination in the developing world and the absence of effective treatments, adherence to precautionary infection control measures remains the best way to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic from spiraling out of control. In this study, we aim to evaluate the extent to which the Syrian population adheres to these measures and analyze the relationship between demographic variables and adherence.

METHODS: This cross-sectional study took place in Syria between January 17 and March 17, 2021. A structured self-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data. The questionnaire was distributed in both electronic and printed versions. Our sample consisted of 7531 individuals. Collected data were analyzed using SPSS v.25. The chi-square test was used to address the correlation between adherence and demographic variables.

RESULTS: Of the 10083 reached out, only 8083 responded, and 7531 included in the final analysis with an effective response rate of 74.7%. Of them, 4026 (53.5%) were women, 3984 (52.9%) were single, and 1908 (25.3%) had earned university degrees. 5286 (70.25) were in the high level of adherence category to protective measures. Statistically significant differences were documented when investigating the correlation between commitment to preventive measures and age, sex, marital status, financial status, employment, and educational attainment. Furthermore, those who believed that COVID-19 poses a major risk to them, or society were more committed to preventive measures than those who did not.

CONCLUSION: The participants in this study generally showed a high level of adherence to the preventive measures compared to participants in other studies from around the world, with some concerns regarding the sources of information they depend on. Nationwide awareness campaigns should be conducted and focus on maintaining, if not expanding, this level of commitment, which would mitigate the pandemic’s impact on Syrian society.

PMID:36240156 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0275669