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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Replacement of an existing maxillary anterior fixed dental prosthesis, redo another fixed dental prosthesis, or convert to implants

J Esthet Restor Dent. 2021 Dec 6. doi: 10.1111/jerd.12852. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article is to discuss the considerations that need to be evaluated when considering the replacement of an existing maxillary anterior fixed dental prosthesis (FDP) with another FDP, or when to consider converting to implants and individual crowns on the previous abutment teeth.

OVERVIEW: The need to replace unesthetic or failing maxillary anterior FDPs is something all restorative dentists will be faced with multiple times in their careers. Given the emphasis over the past few decades on utilizing implants for tooth replacement as opposed to a tooth supported FDP, the question becomes when is converting the existing FDP to implants and single crowns an appropriate choice, as opposed to redoing a new FDP. This article will focus on the risks of choosing to convert to an implant solution, and the risks of redoing the tooth supported FDP. Multiple systematic reviews on each approach will be used to aid in the decision process. The most significant risks for both approaches will be identified, and a chart of the key parameters to assess will be presented, along with their impact.

CONCLUSIONS: The statistical outcomes at 5 and 10 years of tooth supported FDPs, and Implant based restorations are very similar if certain clinical parameters are met, namely vital healthy abutment teeth for the FDP, and adequate bone and soft tissue for the implant-based restoration. If one abutment tooth is compromised the long-term prognosis drops significantly and converting to an implant-based restoration may be more predictable. Similarly, if adequate bone and soft tissue cannot be obtained through surgical augmentation procedures, using a connective tissue graft for the ridge, and redoing the FDP may obtain a more acceptable esthetic result.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: A significant number of maxillary anterior FDPs exist that will need replacement in the future. Given the desire of many dentists to utilize implants when possible, there can be a tendency to automatically treatment plan an implant-based approach for replacement of the existing FDP. Certainly, most clinicians would favor an implant-based tooth replacement rather than preparing unrestored teeth to place an FDP, but when an existing FDP exists, the teeth have already been prepared for full coverage in most instances. In addition, for most long term existing FDPs, there is a significant change in the vertical and horizontal dimension of the bone and soft tissue that can make getting an acceptable esthetic result with an implant challenging. This article provides a systematic approach to identifying when redoing the FDP may be preferable, or when converting to an implant-based approach is a better choice.

PMID:34870356 | DOI:10.1111/jerd.12852

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The statistics wars and intellectual conflicts of interest

Conserv Biol. 2021 Dec 6. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13861. Online ahead of print.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:34870340 | DOI:10.1111/cobi.13861

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Effectiveness of interventions used to prepare preschool children and their parents for day surgery: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

J Clin Nurs. 2021 Dec 5. doi: 10.1111/jocn.16156. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To evaluate how effective preparatory interventions for paediatric day surgery are at reducing parents’ anxiety and stress and children’s pain and fear.

METHODS: A systematic review was conducted according to Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) guidelines and reported using the PRISMA 2020 checklist. PubMed, CINAHL (EBSCO), Scopus, Medic and Web of Science were screened for original research published up until December 2020, while Mednar and EBSCO Open Dissertations were used to identify any relevant grey literature. The methodological quality and risks of bias were evaluated according to JBI guidelines by two authors. The eligibility criteria were parents of a preschool (2- to 6-year-old) child going through day surgery with preparatory interventions, outcomes measured anxiety, stress (parent), fear and pain (child), and randomised controlled trial (RCT).

RESULTS: Two thousand and three hundred and fourteen RCTs were screened. Fifteen studies (including 1514 participants) were chosen for narrative synthesis of parental anxiety and stress and children’s fear and pain. Nine studies underwent a meta-analysis of parental anxiety (n = 970). The interventions were categorised as functional, informative or a combination of both. Four interventions reduced parents’ anxiety while two significantly alleviated children’s postoperative pain. The interventions found to be effective combined various ways of providing information. The meta-analysis did reveal a statistically significant impact on parents’ anxiety (SMD =0.22, 95% Cl [0.03, 0.41], z = 2.28, p = .023). None of the studies dealt with parental stress or fear in children.

CONCLUSIONS: The studied interventions used various preparatory approaches, some of which were effective at reducing parental anxiety. More RCT studies are needed to find the most effective methods for preparing parents and their children for day surgery.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Preparation for day surgery through appropriate interventions can reduce anxiety among parents and postoperative pain in children.

PMID:34870345 | DOI:10.1111/jocn.16156

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Carisbamate add-on therapy for drug-resistant focal epilepsy

Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2021 Dec 6;12:CD012121. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD012121.pub2.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological disorders. Many people with epilepsy are drug-resistant and require add-on therapy, meaning that they concomitantly take multiple antiepileptic drugs. Carisbamate is a drug which is taken orally and inhibits voltage-gated sodium channels. Carisbamate may be useful for drug-resistant focal epilepsy.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of carisbamate when used as an add-on therapy for drug-resistant focal epilepsy.

SEARCH METHODS: We searched the following databases on 8 April 2021: Cochrane Register of Studies (CRS Web) and MEDLINE (Ovid) 1946 to April 07, 2021. CRS Web includes randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials from PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO ICTRP, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and the specialised registers of Cochrane review groups including Epilepsy. We also searched ongoing trials registers, checked reference lists, and contacted authors of the included trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA: Double-blind randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing carisbamate versus placebo or another antiepileptic drug, as add-on therapy for drug-resistant focal epilepsy. Trials could have a parallel-group or cross-over design.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected the trials for inclusion, assessed trial quality, and extracted data. The primary outcome was 50% or greater reduction in seizure frequency (responder rate). The secondary outcomes were: seizure freedom, treatment withdrawal (for any reason and due to adverse events); adverse events, and quality of life. We analysed data using the Mantel-Haenszel statistical method and according to the intention-to-treat population. We presented results as risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

MAIN RESULTS: We included four RCTs involving a total of 2211 participants. All four trials compared carisbamate with placebo for drug-resistant focal epilepsy. Participants in all trials were over 16 years of age and received at least one other antiepileptic drug concomitantly. We detected substantial risk of bias across the included trials. All four trials were at high risk of attrition bias due to the incomplete reporting of attrition and the high treatment withdrawal rates noted, especially with higher doses. All four trials also had unclear risk of detection bias, as they did not specify whether outcome assessors were blinded. Meta-analysis suggested that carisbamate produced a higher responder rate compared to placebo (RR 1.36, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.62; 4 studies; moderate-certainty evidence). More participants in the carsibamate group achieved seizure freedom (RR 2.43, 95% CI 0.84 to 7.03; 1 study); withdrew from treatment for any reason (RR 1.32, 95% CI 0.82 to 2.12; 4 studies); and withdrew from treatment due to adverse events (RR 1.80, 95% CI 0.78 to 4.17; 4 studies) than in the placebo group. However, the evidence for the three outcomes was very low-certainty. There was no difference between treatment groups for the proportion of participants experiencing at least one adverse event (RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.30; 2 studies; low-certainty evidence). More participants in the carisbamate group than in the placebo group developed dizziness (RR 2.06, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.44; 4 studies; very low-certainty evidence) and somnolence (RR 1.82, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.58; 4 studies; low-certainty evidence), but not fatigue (RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.68; 3 studies); headache (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.38; 4 studies); or nausea (RR 1.19, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.75; 3 studies). None of the included trials reported quality of life.

AUTHORS’ CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that carisbamate may demonstrate efficacy and tolerability as an add-on therapy for drug-resistant focal epilepsy. Importantly, the evidence for all outcomes except responder rate was of low to very low certainty, therefore we are uncertain of the accuracy of the reported effects. The certainty of the evidence is limited by the significant risk of bias associated with the included studies, as well as the statistical heterogeneity detected for some outcomes. Consequently, it is difficult for these findings to inform clinical practice. The studies were all of short duration and only included adult study populations. There is a need for further RCTs with more clear methodology, long-term follow-up, more clinical outcomes, more seizure types, and a broader range of participants.

PMID:34870321 | DOI:10.1002/14651858.CD012121.pub2

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

No-boundary thinking: a viable solution to ethical data-driven AI in precision medicine

AI Ethics. 2021 Nov 29:1-9. doi: 10.1007/s43681-021-00118-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Today Artificial Intelligence (AI) supports difficult decisions about policy, health, and our personal lives. The AI algorithms we develop and deploy to make sense of information, are informed by data, and based on models that capture and use pertinent details of the population or phenomenon being analyzed. For any application area, more importantly in precision medicine which directly impacts human lives, the data upon which algorithms are run must be procured, cleaned, and organized well to assure reliable and interpretable results, and to assure that they do not perpetrate or amplify human prejudices. This must be done without violating basic assumptions of the algorithms in use. Algorithmic results need to be clearly communicated to stakeholders and domain experts to enable sound conclusions. Our position is that AI holds great promise for supporting precision medicine, but we need to move forward with great care, with consideration for possible ethical implications. We make the case that a no-boundary or convergent approach is essential to support sound and ethical decisions. No-boundary thinking supports problem definition and solving with teams of experts possessing diverse perspectives. When dealing with AI and the data needed to use AI, there is a spectrum of activities that needs the attention of a no-boundary team. This is necessary if we are to draw viable conclusions and develop actions and policies based on the AI, the data, and the scientific foundations of the domain in question.

PMID:34870283 | PMC:PMC8628283 | DOI:10.1007/s43681-021-00118-4

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in children and adults in the Austrian ski resort of Ischgl

Commun Med (London). 2021;1(1):4. doi: 10.1038/s43856-021-00007-1. Epub 2021 Jun 30.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In early March 2020, a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the ski resort Ischgl in Austria initiated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 throughout Austria and Northern Europe.

METHODS: Between April 21st and 27th 2020, a cross-sectional epidemiologic study targeting the full population of Ischgl (n = 1867), of which 79% could be included (n = 1473, incl. 214 children), was performed. For each individual, the study involved a SARS-CoV-2 PCR, antibody testing and structured questionnaires. A mathematical model was used to help understand the influence of the determined seroprevalence on virus transmission.

RESULTS: The seroprevalence was 42.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 39.8-44.7). Individuals under 18 showed a significantly lower seroprevalence of 27.1% (95% CI 21.3-33.6) than adults (45%; 95% CI 42.2-47.7; OR of 0.455, 95% CI 0.356-0.682, p < 0.001). Of the seropositive individuals, 83.7% had not been diagnosed to have had SARS-CoV-2 infection previously. The clinical course was generally mild. Over the previous two months, two COVID-19-related deaths had been recorded, corresponding to an infection fatality rate of 0.25% (95% CI 0.03-0.91). Only 8 (0.5 %) individuals were newly diagnosed to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 during this study.

CONCLUSIONS: Ischgl was hit early and hard by SARS-CoV-2 leading to a high local seroprevalence of 42.4%, which was lower in individuals below the age of 18 than in adults. Mathematical modeling suggests that a drastic decline of newly infected individuals in Ischgl by the end of April occurred due to the dual impact from the non-pharmacological interventions and a high immunization of the Ischgl population.

PMID:34870284 | PMC:PMC8633917 | DOI:10.1038/s43856-021-00007-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Fire association with respiratory disease and COVID-19 complications in the State of Pará, Brazil

Lancet Reg Health Am. 2022 Feb;6:100102. doi: 10.1016/j.lana.2021.100102. Epub 2021 Nov 3.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Brazil has faced two simultaneous problems related to respiratory health: forest fires and the high mortality rate due to COVID-19 pandemics. The Amazon rain forest is one of the Brazilian biomes that suffers the most with fires caused by droughts and illegal deforestation. These fires can bring respiratory diseases associated with air pollution, and the State of Pará in Brazil is the most affected. COVID-19 pandemics associated with air pollution can potentially increase hospitalizations and deaths related to respiratory diseases. Here, we aimed to evaluate the association of fire occurrences with the COVID-19 mortality rates and general respiratory diseases hospitalizations in the State of Pará, Brazil.

METHODS: We employed machine learning technique for clustering k-means accompanied with the elbow method used to identify the ideal quantity of clusters for the k-means algorithm, clustering 10 groups of cities in the State of Pará where we selected the clusters with the highest and lowest fires occurrence from the 2015 to 2019. Next, an Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Exogenous (ARIMAX) model was proposed to study the serial correlation of respiratory diseases hospitalizations and their associations with fire occurrences. Regarding the COVID-19 analysis, we computed the mortality risk and its confidence level considering the quarterly incidence rate ratio in clusters with high and low exposure to fires.

FINDINGS: Using the k-means algorithm we identified two clusters with similar DHI (Development Human Index) and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) from a group of ten clusters that divided the State of Pará but with diverse behavior considering the hospitalizations and forest fires in the Amazon biome. From the auto-regressive and moving average model (ARIMAX), it was possible to show that besides the serial correlation, the fires occurrences contribute to the respiratory diseases increase, with an observed lag of six months after the fires for the case with high exposure to fires. A highlight that deserves attention concerns the relationship between fire occurrences and deaths. Historically, the risk of mortality by respiratory diseases is higher (about the double) in regions and periods with high exposure to fires than the ones with low exposure to fires. The same pattern remains in the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, where the risk of mortality for COVID-19 was 80% higher in the region and period with high exposure to fires. Regarding the SARS-COV-2 analysis, the risk of mortality related to COVID-19 is higher in the period with high exposure to fires than in the period with low exposure to fires. Another highlight concerns the relationship between fire occurrences and COVID-19 deaths. The results show that regions with high fire occurrences are associated with more cases of COVID deaths.

INTERPRETATION: The decision-make process is a critical problem mainly when it involves environmental and health control policies. Environmental policies are often more cost-effective as health measures than the use of public health services. This highlight the importance of data analyses to support the decision making and to identify population in need of better infrastructure due to historical environmental factors and the knowledge of associated health risk. The results suggest that The fires occurrences contribute to the increase of the respiratory diseases hospitalization. The mortality rate related to COVID-19 was higher for the period with high exposure to fires than the period with low exposure to fires. The regions with high fire occurrences is associated with more COVID-19 deaths, mainly in the months with high number of fires.

FUNDING: No additional funding source was required for this study.

PMID:34870262 | PMC:PMC8632600 | DOI:10.1016/j.lana.2021.100102

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Distinct Circadian Assessments From Wearable Data Reveal Social Distancing Promoted Internal Desynchrony Between Circadian Markers

Front Digit Health. 2021 Nov 16;3:727504. doi: 10.3389/fdgth.2021.727504. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Mobile measures of human circadian rhythms (CR) are needed in the age of chronotherapy. Two wearable measures of CR have recently been validated: one that uses heart rate to extract circadian rhythms that originate in the sinoatrial node of the heart, and another that uses activity to predict the laboratory gold standard and central circadian pacemaker marker, dim light melatonin onset (DLMO). We first find that the heart rate markers of normal real-world individuals align with laboratory DLMO measurements when we account for heart rate phase error. Next, we expand upon previous work that has examined sleep patterns or chronotypes during the COVID-19 lockdown by studying the effects of social distancing on circadian rhythms. In particular, using data collected from the Social Rhythms app, a mobile application where individuals upload their wearable data and receive reports on their circadian rhythms, we compared the two circadian phase estimates before and after social distancing. Interestingly, we found that the lockdown had different effects on the two ambulatory measurements. Before the lockdown, the two measures aligned, as predicted by laboratory data. After the lockdown, when circadian timekeeping signals were blunted, these measures diverged in 70% of subjects (with circadian rhythms in heart rate, or CRHR, becoming delayed). Thus, while either approach can measure circadian rhythms, both are needed to understand internal desynchrony. We also argue that interventions may be needed in future lockdowns to better align separate circadian rhythms in the body.

PMID:34870267 | PMC:PMC8634937 | DOI:10.3389/fdgth.2021.727504

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Optimising health and economic impacts of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation strategies in the WHO European Region: a mathematical modelling study

Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2022 Jan;12:100267. doi: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100267. Epub 2021 Nov 30.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region differ in terms of the COVID-19 vaccine supply conditions. We evaluated the health and economic impact of different age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies across this demographically and socio-economically diverse region.

METHODS: We fitted age-specific compartmental models to the reported daily COVID-19 mortality in 2020 to inform the immunity level before vaccine roll-out. Models capture country-specific differences in population structures, contact patterns, epidemic history, life expectancy, and GDP per capita.We examined four strategies that prioritise: all adults (V+), younger (20-59 year-olds) followed by older adults (60+) (V20), older followed by younger adults (V60), and the oldest adults (75+) (V75) followed by incrementally younger age groups. We explored four roll-out scenarios (R1-4) – the slowest scenario (R1) reached 30% coverage by December 2022 and the fastest (R4) 80% by December 2021. Five decision-making metrics were summarised over 2021-22: mortality, morbidity, and losses in comorbidity-adjusted life expectancy, comorbidity- and quality-adjusted life years, and human capital. Six vaccine profiles were tested – the highest performing vaccine has 95% efficacy against both infection and disease, and the lowest 50% against diseases and 0% against infection.

FINDINGS: Of the 20 decision-making metrics and roll-out scenario combinations, the same optimal strategy applied to all countries in only one combination; V60 was more or similarly desirable than V75 in 19 combinations. Of the 38 countries with fitted models, 11-37 countries had variable optimal strategies by decision-making metrics or roll-out scenarios. There are greater benefits in prioritising older adults when roll-out is slow and when vaccine profiles are less favourable.

INTERPRETATION: The optimal age-based vaccine prioritisation strategies were sensitive to country characteristics, decision-making metrics, and roll-out speeds. A prioritisation strategy involving more age-based stages (V75) does not necessarily lead to better health and economic outcomes than targeting broad age groups (V60). Countries expecting a slow vaccine roll-out may particularly benefit from prioritising older adults.

FUNDING: World Health Organization, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Medical Research Council (United Kingdom), the National Institute of Health Research (United Kingdom), the European Commission, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (United Kingdom), Wellcome Trust.

PMID:34870256 | PMC:PMC8629724 | DOI:10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100267

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Sequencing-based genome-wide association studies reporting standards

Cell Genom. 2021 Oct 13;1(1):100005. doi: 10.1016/j.xgen.2021.100005.

ABSTRACT

Genome sequencing has recently become a viable genotyping technology for use in genome-wide association studies (GWASs), offering the potential to analyze a broader range of genome-wide variation, including rare variants. To survey current standards, we assessed the content and quality of reporting of statistical methods, analyses, results, and datasets in 167 exome- or genome-wide-sequencing-based GWAS publications published from 2014 to 2020; 81% of publications included tests of aggregate association across multiple variants, with multiple test models frequently used. We observed a lack of standardized terms and incomplete reporting of datasets, particularly for variants analyzed in aggregate tests. We also find a lower frequency of sharing of summary statistics compared with array-based GWASs. Reporting standards and increased data sharing are required to ensure sequencing-based association study data are findable, interoperable, accessible, and reusable (FAIR). To support that, we recommend adopting the standard terminology of sequencing-based GWAS (seqGWAS). Further, we recommend that single-variant analyses be reported following the same standards and conventions as standard array-based GWASs and be shared in the GWAS Catalog. We also provide initial recommended standards for aggregate analyses metadata and summary statistics.

PMID:34870259 | PMC:PMC8637874 | DOI:10.1016/j.xgen.2021.100005