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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Swedish nationwide time series analysis of influenza and suicide deaths from 1910 to 1978

BMJ Open. 2021 Jul 7;11(7):e049302. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049302.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: There is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic will be associated with an increase in suicides, but evidence supporting a link between pandemics and suicide is limited. Using data from the three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, we aimed to investigate whether an association exists between influenza deaths and suicide deaths.

DESIGN: Time series analysis.

SETTING: Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS: Deaths from influenza and suicides extracted from the Statistical Yearbook of Sweden for 1910-1978, covering three pandemics (the Spanish influenza, the Asian influenza and the Hong Kong influenza).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual suicide rates in Sweden among the whole population, men and women. Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models was implemented to explore if there is a short-term and/or long-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates with suicide rates during 1910-1978.

RESULTS: Between 1910 and 1978, there was no evidence of either short-term or long-term significant associations between influenza death rates and changes in suicides (β coefficients of 0.00002, p=0.931 and β=0.00103, p=0.764 for short-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates, respectively, with suicide rates, and β=-0.0002, p=0.998 and β=0.00211, p=0.962 for long-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates, respectively, with suicide rates). The same pattern emerged in separate analyses for men and women.

CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of short-term or long-term association between influenza death rates and suicide death rates across three 20th century pandemics.

PMID:34233997 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049302

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Patient-level and hospital-level variation and related time trends in COVID-19 case fatality rates during the first pandemic wave in England: multilevel modelling analysis of routine data

BMJ Qual Saf. 2021 Jul 7:bmjqs-2021-012990. doi: 10.1136/bmjqs-2021-012990. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: A report suggesting large between-hospital variations in mortality after admission for COVID-19 in England attracted much media attention but used crude rates. We aimed to quantify these variations between hospitals and over time during England’s first wave (March to July 2020) and assess available patient-level and hospital-level predictors to explain those variations.

METHODS: We used administrative data for England, augmented by hospital-level information. Admissions were extracted with COVID-19 codes. In-hospital death was the primary outcome. Risk-adjusted mortality ratios (standardised mortality ratios) and interhospital variation were calculated using multilevel logistic regression. Early-wave (March to April) and late-wave (May to July) periods were compared.

RESULTS: 74 781 admissions had a primary diagnosis of COVID-19, with 21 984 in-hospital deaths (29.4%); the 30-day total mortality rate was 28.8%. The crude in-hospital death rate fell in all ages and overall from 32.9% in March to 13.4% in July. Patient-level predictors included age, male gender, non-white ethnic group (early period only) and several comorbidities (obesity early period only). The only significant hospital-level predictor was daily COVID-19 admissions in the late period; we did not find a relation with staff absences for COVID-19, mechanical ventilation bed occupancies, total bed occupancies or bed occupancies for COVID-19 admissions in either period. Just 4 (3%) and 2 (2%) hospitals were high, and 5 (4%) and 0 hospitals were low funnel plot mortality outliers at 3 SD for early and late periods, respectively, after risk adjustment. We found no strong correlation between early and late hospital-level mortality (r=0.17, p=0.06).

CONCLUSIONS: There was modest variation in mortality following admission for COVID-19 between English hospitals after adjustment for risk and random variation, in marked contrast to early media reports. Early-period mortality did not predict late-period mortality.

PMID:34234008 | DOI:10.1136/bmjqs-2021-012990

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Low rates of serious complications and further procedures following surgery for base of thumb osteoarthritis: analysis of a national cohort of 43 076 surgeries

BMJ Open. 2021 Jul 7;11(7):e045614. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045614.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of further procedures and serious adverse events (SAEs) requiring admission to hospital following elective surgery for base of thumb osteoarthritis (BTOA), and the patient factors associated with these outcomes.

DESIGN: Population based cohort study.

SETTING: National Health Service using the national Hospital Episode Statistics data set linked to mortality records over a 19-year period (01 April 1998-31 March 2017).

PARTICIPANTS: 43 076 primary surgeries were followed longitudinally in secondary care until death or migration on 37 329 patients over 18 years of age.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of further thumb base procedures (including revision surgery or intra-articular steroid injection) at any time postoperatively, and local wound complications and systemic events (myocardial infarction, stroke, respiratory tract infection, venous thromboembolic events, urinary tract infection or renal failure) within 30 and 90 days. To identify patient factors associated with outcome, Fine and Gray model regression analysis was used to adjust for the competing risk of mortality in addition to age, overall comorbidity and socioeconomic status.

RESULTS: Over the 19 years, there was an increasing trend in surgeries undertaken. The rate of further thumb base procedures after any surgery was 1.39%; the lowest rates after simple trapeziectomy (1.12%), the highest rates after arthroplasty (3.84%) and arthrodesis (3.5%). When matched for age, comorbidity and socioeconomic status, those undergoing arthroplasty and arthrodesis were 2.5 times more likely to undergo a further procedure (subHR 2.51 (95% CI 1.81 to 3.48) and 2.55 (1.91 to 3.40)) than those undergoing simple trapeziectomy. Overall complication rates following surgery were 0.22% for serious local complications and 0.58% for systemic events within 90 days of surgery.

CONCLUSIONS: The number of patients proceeding to BTOA surgery has increased over the last 19 years, with a low rate of further thumb base procedures and SAEs after surgery overall registered. Arthrodesis and arthroplasty had a significantly higher revision rate.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03573765.

PMID:34233971 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045614

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Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) in autism spectrum disorder: protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled clinical trial

BMJ Open. 2021 Jul 7;11(7):e046830. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046830.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: There are no well-established biomedical treatments for the core symptoms of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). A small number of studies suggest that repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS), a non-invasive brain stimulation technique, may improve clinical and cognitive outcomes in ASD. We describe here the protocol for a funded multicentre randomised controlled clinical trial to investigate whether a course of rTMS to the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ), which has demonstrated abnormal brain activation in ASD, can improve social communication in adolescents and young adults with ASD.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will evaluate the safety and efficacy of a 4-week course of intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS, a variant of rTMS) in ASD. Participants meeting criteria for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition ASD (n=150, aged 14-40 years) will receive 20 sessions of either active iTBS (600 pulses) or sham iTBS (in which a sham coil mimics the sensation of iTBS, but no active stimulation is delivered) to the rTPJ. Participants will undergo a range of clinical, cognitive, epi/genetic, and neurophysiological assessments before and at multiple time points up to 6 months after iTBS. Safety will be assessed via a structured questionnaire and adverse event reporting. The study will be conducted from November 2020 to October 2024.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of Monash Health (Melbourne, Australia) under Australia’s National Mutual Acceptance scheme. The trial will be conducted according to Good Clinical Practice, and findings will be written up for scholarly publication.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12620000890932).

PMID:34233985 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046830

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Contrast extravasation and outcome of endovascular therapy in acute ischaemic stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BMJ Open. 2021 Jul 7;11(7):e044917. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044917.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Contrast extravasation (CE) after endovascular therapy (EVT) is commonly present in acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) patients. Substantial uncertainties remain about the relationship between CE and the outcomes of EVT in patients with AIS. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate this association.

DESIGN: A systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies were performed.

DATA SOURCE: We systematically searched the Medline and Embase databases for relevant clinical studies. The last literature search in databases was performed in June 2020.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION: We included studies exploring the associations between CE and the outcomes of EVT in patients with AIS undergoing EVT.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two reviewers extracted relevant information and data from each article independently. We pooled ORs with CIs using a random-effects meta-analysis to calculate the associations between CE and outcomes of EVT. The magnitude of heterogeneity between estimates was quantified with the I2 statistic with 95% CIs.

RESULTS: Fifteen observational studies that enrolled 1897 patients were included. Patients with CE had higher risks of poor functional outcome at discharge (2.38, 95% CI 1.45 to 3.89 p=0.001; n=545) and poor functional outcome at 90 days (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.90; n=1194). We found no association between CE and in-hospital mortality (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.27 to 3.30; n=376) or 90-day mortality (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.81 to 2.36; n=697) after EVT. Moreover, CE was associated with higher risks of post-EVT intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) (OR 6.68, 95% CI 3.51 to 12.70; n=1721) and symptomatic ICH (OR 3.26, 95% CI 1.97 to 5.40; n=1092).

CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and meta-analysis indicates that in patients with AIS undergoing EVT, CE is associated with higher risks of unfavourable functional outcomes and ICH. Thus, we should pay more attention to CE in patients with AIS undergoing EVT.

PMID:34233968 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044917

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Targeted chemodenervation of the posterior belly of the digastric muscle for the management of jaw discomfort in facial synkinesis

J Plast Reconstr Aesthet Surg. 2021 Jun 9:S1748-6815(21)00297-7. doi: 10.1016/j.bjps.2021.05.045. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Botulinum toxin (BT-A) chemodenervation has been proved to significantly improve the physical and psychological well-being of patients suffering from facial synkinesis. Despite this, a cohort of patients has persistent tightness and discomfort around the angle of the jaw, which may be caused by synkinesis within the posterior belly of digastric (PBD) muscle. This study was designed to evaluate the benefits of ultrasound-guided BT-A injections into the PBD.

METHODS: Thirty-three patients with recalcitrant tightness and discomfort around the angle of the jaw, despite maximal facial therapy and platysmal chemodenervation were selected for inclusion. Patients underwent ultrasound-guided BT-A injection into the ipsilateral PBD muscle (skin puncture site 1 cm inferior and posterior to the angle of mandible). Outcomes consisted of the Facial Disability Index (FDI), Synkinesis Assessment Questionnaire (SAQ), and a visual analogue scale (VAS) designed to assess tightness and pain around the PBD when moving the jaw, swallowing, and masticating. Questionnaires were completed two weeks before and postinjection. Statistical analysis was performed using a paired t-test.

RESULTS: Nineteen patients completed the post-treatment outcome questionnaire. A statistically significant improvement was noted in the physical and social function aspects of the FDI and all aspects of the patient-reported VAS scores apart from tightness and pain on jaw retrusion and swallowing. There was no significant difference in the SAQ.

CONCLUSION: This study has demonstrated the patient-perceived benefit of ultrasound-targeted BT-A chemodenervation of PBD. This represents a low-risk treatment option that can be easily added to the repertoire of treatments offered to patients with post paralysis facial synkinesis.

PMID:34233854 | DOI:10.1016/j.bjps.2021.05.045

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Bacterial infection of fasciotomy wounds following decompression for acute compartment syndrome (bacterial infection of fasciotomy wounds)

Injury. 2021 Jun 28:S0020-1383(21)00581-7. doi: 10.1016/j.injury.2021.06.018. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Acute Compartment Syndrome (ACS) is a serious complication generally requiring treatment with an emergency decompressive fasciotomy. The aim of this study was to identify the most prevalent organisms involved in fasciotomy wound infections, and to determine the best strategies to mitigate this risk.

DESIGN: Retrospective review.

SETTING: Single tertiary referral centre.

PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 370) who underwent fasciotomy for emergency ACS were included in this study. Positive wound swabs and tissue samples within 30 days post fasciotomy were identified, and extended antibiotic sensitivities were recorded. Patient medical charts were reviewed to assess infection rate, causative organism(s), and clinical outcomes.

INTERVENTION: Fasciotomy Main Outcome Measurements: Most prevalent organism in fasciotomy wound infections, and the rate of any associated morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS: The overall infection rate was 16.7%. Infection rates were significantly higher in burns (27%) and trauma (22%) patients than vascular patients (13%) (p = 0.002). The most prevalent organism was Pseudomonas aeruginosa, isolated from 23% of all wound specimens and comprising over a third (35%) of infections overall. Ten patients required amputation for infection control. Six of these were secondary to Pseudomonas infection, whereby one patient mortality occurred.

CONCLUSION: In this series, one in six fasciotomies for ACS developed an infection within 30 days of their index procedure. Burns and trauma comprised the highest risk groups. Facultative anaerobes were the predominant organisms involved in fasciotomy wound infections. A combination of aminoglycosides and beta-lactams with quinolones should be considered when commencing empiric therapy for fasciotomy wound infections. Antibiotic coverage for routine peri‑operative prophylaxis following emergency decompression for acute compartment syndrome should be strongly considered, particularly in burns or trauma cases.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Aetiologic Level III.

PMID:34233855 | DOI:10.1016/j.injury.2021.06.018

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Beta-blocker use after complete repair of tetralogy of Fallot: an analysis of a national database

Cardiol Young. 2021 Jul 8:1-5. doi: 10.1017/S1047951121002638. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: In patients with right ventricular diastolic dysfunction after complete repair of tetralogy of Fallot, some employ the use of beta-blockade. The theoretical benefit of this therapy is felt to be one of the two: 1) reduction in heart rate with subsequent increase in diastolic filling time and stroke volume; 2) halting or reversal of right ventricular remodelling. This study aimed to characterise the use of beta-blockade in paediatric admissions with complete repair of tetralogy of Fallot and characterise the effects of beta-blockade on admission characteristics.

METHODS: Admissions from 2004 to 2015 in the Pediatric Health Information System database with complete repair of tetralogy of Fallot were identified. Characteristics between admissions with and without beta-blockade were compared by univariate analysis. Next, regression analyses were conducted to determine the independent association of beta-blockade on length of admission, billed charges, cardiac arrest, and inpatient mortality while controlling for demographic variables and comorbidities.

RESULTS: A total of 3594 admissions were included in the final analyses. Of these, 371 employed beta-blockade. Admissions with beta-blockade were more likely to have heart failure and tachyarrhythmias. These admissions also tended to be longer by univariate analysis. Regression analyses demonstrated that beta-blockade was independently associated with a 2.8-day increase in length of stay and no statistically significant change in billed charges, cardiac arrest, or inpatient mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: Beta-blockade after complete repair of tetralogy of Fallot is associated with a longer length of stay but did not statistically significantly impact billed charges, cardiac arrest, or inpatient mortality.

PMID:34233773 | DOI:10.1017/S1047951121002638

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Indocyanine Green Angiography for Quality Assessment of the Kidney During Transplantation: An Outcome Predictor Prospective Study

Transplant Proc. 2021 Jul 5:S0041-1345(21)00422-X. doi: 10.1016/j.transproceed.2021.06.010. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Microvascular damage is the main cause of delayed graft function (DGF) after kidney transplant. Assessing its extent may be helpful in predicting DGF to achieve better postoperative management, especially in terms of an immunosuppressive regimen. Our aim was to explore the capability of intraoperative indocyanine green (ICG) angiography to examine the microvasculature of the kidney.

METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study on 37 kidney transplant recipients in a high-volume kidney transplant center. During surgery, after graft implant, an ICG angiography was performed through a high-definition Storz camera system (Karl Storz GmbH, Tuttlingen, Germany) with successive quantitative assessment of fluorescence using Icy bioimage analysis.

RESULTS: All transplanted kidneys that showed immediate recovery of their function had a fluorescent intensity ≥49.953 with a mean of 96.930 ± 21. The fluorescence intensity for kidneys that showed a delayed recovery of their function never exceeded 55.648, and the mean was 37.718 ± 13. The difference between the 2 groups was statistically significant with a P value < .001. The only kidney that never recovered showed a fluorescence intensity consistently <25.220, the lowest detected.

CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that intraoperative ICG angiography may be used to assess the microvasculature of the graft. A statistically significant difference in terms of fluorescent intensity can be highlighted between kidneys that immediately recover their function and those with delayed recovery. Further larger studies are needed to confirm the capability of the technique to predict DGF to optimize the transplanted patients’ management.

PMID:34233847 | DOI:10.1016/j.transproceed.2021.06.010

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Physiotherapists’ use and perceptions of digital remote physiotherapy during COVID-19 lockdown in Switzerland: an online cross-sectional survey

Arch Physiother. 2021 Jul 7;11(1):18. doi: 10.1186/s40945-021-00112-3.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Swiss containment strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic during the first wave in spring 2020 resulted in a moratorium on non-urgent physiotherapy via regular direct patient contact. Consequently, such physiotherapy sessions declined by 84%. This study investigates the impact of this moratorium on the use of digital remote physiotherapy in Switzerland during this period and the perceptions of its use by Swiss physiotherapists (PTs).

METHODS: A cross-sectional online questionnaire was distributed between June and August of 2020 via the Swiss Physiotherapy Association (physioswiss) and various associations of physiotherapy specialists (e.g., sport, pediatric) working in both inpatient and outpatient settings. The questionnaire was designed to capture the demographics of participants and the perceptions of PTs using 33 questions in the following domains: Demography; Attitudes towards digital technology; Private and professional use of digital technology; Use of digital technology during therapy; and, Support requirements. Closed and open-ended questions were included and the frequency of answers was analyzed. Non-parametric inferential statistics were used to identify differences, where appropriate. The Checklist for Reporting Results of Internet E-Surveys (CHERRIES) was adopted.

RESULTS: Participants in the survey were 742 PTs (23.5% male, mean age of 43 years, mean working experience of 18 years) from the German-speaking (75.5%), French-speaking (15.1%), and Italian-speaking (9.4%) regions of Switzerland. The percentage of PTs using digital remote therapy increased from 4.9% prior to the lockdown to 44.6% during the lockdown period. The majority of PTs did not consider that digital remote therapy could complement usual physiotherapy practice and did not plan to continue with digital remote therapy after the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS: During the lockdown, Swiss PTs adopted various low-cost and easily accessible digital technologies. However, several barriers hampered further implementation of this modality. Specific education and training programs need to be provided among PTs, appropriate digital technologies should be introduced, and a correct reimbursement scheme should be developed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: COVIDPhysio Registry of World Physiotherapy, registered 15th June 2020 ( https://world.physio/covid-19-information-hub/covid-19-covidphysio-registry ).

PMID:34233763 | DOI:10.1186/s40945-021-00112-3