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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Determinants of emergency department utilisation by older adults in Singapore: A systematic review

Ann Acad Med Singap. 2022 Mar;51(3):170-179.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Adults aged ≥60 years contribute to disproportionately higher visits to the emergency departments (ED). We performed a systematic review to examine the reasons why older persons visit the ED in Singapore.

METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and Scopus from January 2000 to December 2021 for studies reporting on ED utilisation by older adults in Singapore, and included studies that investigated determinants of ED utilisation. Statistically significant determinants and their effect sizes were extracted. Determinants of ED utilisation were organised using Andersen and Newman’s model. Quality of studies was evaluated using Newcastle Ottawa Scale and Critical Appraisal Skills Programme.

RESULTS: The search yielded 138 articles, of which 7 were used for analysis. Among the significant individual determinants were predisposing (staying in public rental housing, religiosity, loneliness, poorer coping), enabling (caregiver distress from behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia) and health factors (multimorbidity in patients with dementia, frailty, primary care visit in last 6 months, better treatment adherence). The 7 included studies are of moderate quality and none of them employed conceptual frameworks to organise determinants of ED utilisation.

CONCLUSION: The major determinants of ED utilisation by older adults in Singapore were largely individual factors. Evaluation of societal determinants of ED utilisation was lacking in the included studies. There is a need for a more holistic examination of determinants of ED utilisation locally based on conceptual models of health seeking behaviours.

PMID:35373240

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Momentary Influences on Self-Regulation in Two Populations With Health Risk Behaviors: Adults Who Smoke and Adults Who Are Overweight and Have Binge-Eating Disorder

Front Digit Health. 2022 Mar 18;4:798895. doi: 10.3389/fdgth.2022.798895. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Self-regulation has been implicated in health risk behaviors and is a target of many health behavior interventions. Despite most prior research focusing on self-regulation as an individual-level trait, we hypothesize that self-regulation is a time-varying mechanism of health and risk behavior that may be influenced by momentary contexts to a substantial degree. Because most health behaviors (e.g., eating, drinking, smoking) occur in the context of everyday activities, digital technologies may help us better understand and influence these behaviors in real time. Using a momentary self-regulation measure, the current study (which was part of a larger multi-year research project on the science of behavior change) used ecological momentary assessment (EMA) to assess if self-regulation can be engaged and manipulated on a momentary basis in naturalistic, non-laboratory settings.

METHODS: This one-arm, open-label exploratory study prospectively collected momentary data for 14 days from 104 participants who smoked regularly and 81 participants who were overweight and had binge-eating disorder. Four times per day, participants were queried about momentary self-regulation, emotional state, and social and environmental context; recent smoking and exposure to smoking cues (smoking sample only); and recent eating, binge eating, and exposure to binge-eating cues (binge-eating sample only). This study used a novel, momentary self-regulation measure comprised of four subscales: momentary perseverance, momentary sensation seeking, momentary self-judgment, and momentary mindfulness. Participants were also instructed to engage with Laddr, a mobile application that provides evidence-based health behavior change tools via an integrated platform. The association between momentary context and momentary self-regulation was explored via mixed-effects models. Exploratory assessments of whether recent Laddr use (defined as use within 12 h of momentary responses) modified the association between momentary context and momentary self-regulation were performed via mixed-effects models.

RESULTS: Participants (mean age 35.2; 78% female) in the smoking and binge-eating samples contributed a total of 3,233 and 3,481 momentary questionnaires, respectively. Momentary self-regulation subscales were associated with several momentary contexts, in the combined as well as smoking and binge-eating samples. For example, in the combined sample momentary perseverance was associated with location, positively associated with positive affect, and negatively associated with negative affect, stress, and tiredness. In the smoking sample, momentary perseverance was positively associated with momentary difficulty in accessing cigarettes, caffeine intake, and momentary restraint in smoking, and negatively associated with temptation and urge to smoke. In the binge-eating sample, momentary perseverance was positively associated with difficulty in accessing food and restraint in eating, and negatively associated with urge to binge eat. While recent Laddr use was not associated directly with momentary self-regulation subscales, it did modify several of the contextual associations, including challenging contexts.

CONCLUSIONS: Overall, this study provides preliminary evidence that momentary self-regulation may vary in response to differing momentary contexts in samples from two exemplar populations with risk behaviors. In addition, the Laddr application may modify some of these relationships. These findings demonstrate the possibility of measuring momentary self-regulation in a trans-diagnostic way and assessing the effects of momentary, mobile interventions in context. Health behavior change interventions may consider measuring and targeting momentary self-regulation in addition to trait-level self-regulation to better understand and improve health risk behaviors. This work will be used to inform a later stage of research focused on assessing the transdiagnostic mediating effect of momentary self-regulation on medical regimen adherence and health outcomes.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, Identifier: NCT03352713.

PMID:35373179 | PMC:PMC8971561 | DOI:10.3389/fdgth.2022.798895

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Diagnostic thresholds for absolute systolic toe pressure and toe-brachial index in diabetic foot screening

Ann Acad Med Singap. 2022 Mar;51(3):143-148.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Identifying peripheral arterial disease (PAD) during diabetic foot screening (DFS) is crucial in reducing the risk of diabetic foot ulcerations and lower limb amputations. Screening assessments commonly used include absolute systolic toe pressure (ASTP) and toe-brachial index (TBI). There is a lack of research defining the threshold values of both assessment methods. We aimed to compare the accuracy of ASTP and TBI and establish optimal threshold values of ASTP and TBI with reference to the internationally accepted ankle-brachial pressure index (ABPI) screening test, for a multiethnic diabetic population in Singapore.

METHODS: A retrospective, observational study of DFS results from January 2017 to December 2017 was conducted. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted for ASTP and TBI using the internationally accepted ABPI cut-off value of ≤0.9 to indicate PAD.

RESULTS: A total of 1,454 patients with mean (standard deviation) age of 63.1 (12.4) years old were included. There were 50.8% men and 49.2% women, comprising 69.7% Chinese, 13.5% Indian, 10.1% Malay and 6.7% other ethnicities. Areas under the curve for ASTP and TBI were 0.89 (95% confidence interval [Cl] 0.85-0.94) and 0.94 (95% Cl 0.90-0.98), respectively, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.001). Derived optimal threshold values to indicate ABPI≤0.9 for ASTP and TBI were <95.5mmHg (specificity 0.86, sensitivity 0.84) and <0.7 (specificity 0.89, sensitivity 0.95), respectively.

CONCLUSION: ASTP or TBI may be used to detect ABPI-determined PAD in DFS. The optimal threshold values derived from a multiethnic Asian diabetic population were <95.5mmHg for ASTP and <0.7 for TBI.

PMID:35373237

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Esthetic evaluation of conventional and socket shield technique immediate implant restoration

Zhonghua Kou Qiang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2022 Apr 9;57(4):346-351. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112144-20220207-00046. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Objective: To evaluate the pink and white esthetics of conventional and socket shield technique (SST) immediate implant restoration. Methods: Thirty volunteers were recruited according to preset criteria, and were assigned to 3 groups. Natural teeth group (ten undergraduates or postgraduates from Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology in January 2020, n=10): all volunteers’ maxillary anterior teeth were natural teeth with healthy gingiva, and none of the teeth were restored by crowns or composite. Conventional group and SST group (patients had a maxillary central incisor immediate implant placed in Department of Prosthodontics, Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology during October 2016 to January 2021, n=10 for each group): the volunteer had an unrestored natural maxillary central incisor, and the contralateral maxillary central incisor was restored by conventional or SST immediate implant placement, temporization and all ceramic final restoration, photos were taken 12 months post-surgery. Three groups of evaluators namely layperson (staff from Second Clinical Division of Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology and 2 family members, n=10), dental students (class 2015 undergraduates from Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology, n=10) and prosthodontists (from Department of Prosthodontics, Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology, n=10) were invited to assess the esthetics using pink esthetic score (PES) and white esthetic score (WES). The results were statistically analyzed. Results: PES and WES of natural teeth group [9(8, 10) and 8(7, 10)] were significantly higher than conventional group [7(6,8) and 7(6,9)] (H=287.08, 132.79,P<0.01) and SST group [7(6, 9) and 8(7, 9)] (H=216.01, 101.21, P<0.01). SST group yielded higher PES than the conventional group (H=-71.06, P=0.002), yet had similar WES (H=-31.57, P=0.391). Dental students had significant lower PES and WES than prosthodontists (H=-120.90, -218.86, P<0.01) and layperson (H=-109.55, 134.97, P<0.01). Prosthodontists and layperson got similar PES (H=-11.36, P=0.587), however yielded different WES (H=-83.89, P<0.01). Conclusions: SST immediate implant placement obtained better pink esthetics than conventional protocol 12-month after implant surgery, profession may have significant impact on evaluators during pink and white esthetic evaluation.

PMID:35368160 | DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112144-20220207-00046

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

High-Throughput, Living Single-Cell, Multiple Secreted Biomarker Profiling Using Microfluidic Chip and Machine Learning for Tumor Cell Classification

Adv Healthc Mater. 2022 Apr 3:e2102800. doi: 10.1002/adhm.202102800. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Secreted proteins provide abundant functional information on living cells and can be used as important tumor diagnostic markers, of which profiling at the single-cell level is helpful for accurate tumor cell classification. Currently, achieving living single-cell multi-index, high-sensitivity and quantitative secretion biomarker profiling remains a great challenge. Here, a high-throughput living single-cell multi-index secreted biomarker profiling platform is proposed, combined with machine learning, to achieve accurate tumor cell classification. A single-cell culture microfluidic chip with self-assembled graphene oxide quantum dots (GOQDs) enables high-activity single-cell culture, ensuring normal secretion of biomarkers and high-throughput single-cell separation, providing sufficient statistical data for machine learning. At the same time, the antibody barcode chip with self-assembled GOQDs performs multi-index, highly sensitive and quantitative detection of secreted biomarkers, in which each cell culture chamber covers a whole barcode array. Importantly, by combining the K-means strategy with machine learning, thousands of single tumor cell secretion data are analyzed, enabling tumor cell classification with a recognition accuracy of 95.0%. In addition, further profiling of the grouping results reveals the unique secretion characteristics of subgroups. This work provides an intelligent platform for high-throughput living single-cell multiple secretion biomarker profiling, which has broad implications for cancer investigation and biomedical research. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID:35368151 | DOI:10.1002/adhm.202102800

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Evaluating the performance of temporal and spatial early warning statistics of algal blooms

Ecol Appl. 2022 Apr 3:e2616. doi: 10.1002/eap.2616. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Regime shifts have large consequences for ecosystems and the services they provide. However, understanding the potential for, causes of, proximity to, and thresholds for regimes shifts in nearly all settings is difficult. Generic statistical indicators of resilience have been proposed and studied in a wide range of ecosystems as a method to detect when regime shifts are becoming more likely without direct knowledge of underlying system dynamics or thresholds. These early warning statistics (EWS) have been studied separately but there have been few examples that directly compare temporal and spatial EWS in ecosystem-scale empirical data. To test these methods, we collected high-frequency time series and high-resolution spatial data during a whole-lake fertilization experiment while also monitoring an adjacent reference lake. We calculated two common EWS, standard deviation and autocorrelation, in both time series and spatial data to evaluate their performance prior to the resulting algal bloom. We also applied the quickest detection method to generate binary alarms of resilience change from temporal EWS. One temporal EWS, rolling window standard deviation, provided advanced warning in most variables prior to the bloom, showing trends and between-lake patterns consistent with theory. In contrast, temporal autocorrelation and both measures of spatial EWS (spatial SD, Moran’s I) provided little or no warning. By compiling time series data from this and past experiments with and without nutrient additions, we were able to evaluate temporal EWS performance for both constant and changing resilience conditions. True positive alarm rates were 2.5 – 8.3 times higher for rolling window standard deviation when a lake was being pushed towards a bloom than the rate of false positives when it was not. For rolling window autocorrelation, alarm rates were much lower and no variable had a higher true positive than false positive alarm rate. Our findings suggest temporal EWS provide advanced warning of algal blooms and that this approach could help managers prepare for and/or minimize negative bloom impacts.

PMID:35368134 | DOI:10.1002/eap.2616

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An intensive anatomy by whole-body dissection elective: a longitudinal study

Clin Anat. 2022 Apr 3. doi: 10.1002/ca.23861. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Whole body dissection, once a long-held method of learning and teaching in anatomy medical education, has largely been replaced by cost and time-reduced methods of teaching. This paper reports on a longitudinal study of student knowledge acquisition and retention, following six annual intensive seven-week elective anatomy by whole body dissection (AWBD) courses implemented between 2010 to 2015, utilising a modified Team-based learning (TBL) pedagogy. A total of 160 students completed the intensive full-time courses. During each course, students, in groups of five or six, completed the dissection of a whole cadaver. Students were assessed by a standardised practical test involving the accurate identification of 20 different tagged anatomical structures. All students (n=160) completed pre-course and end-course individual assessments. Seventy students were assessed again one month after the course ended. A further 71 students were assessed seven months later. A marked increase in topographical relational anatomical knowledge was demonstrated. The median pre-course score was 9/20 (interquartile range 5). The median end-course score was 19/20 (IQR 2), a statistically significant increase (p < 0.001). The assessments for the 70 students reassessed one month after the course ended showed no significant statistical change. The assessments for the further 71 students assessed seven months later also showed no significant statistical change. The results of this study demonstrate that AWBD, provides significant acquisition and maintenance of three-dimensional regional relational anatomical knowledge. As an elective, AWBD has a place in the medical curricula, particularly for students interested in a surgical or procedural based specialty career. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID:35368123 | DOI:10.1002/ca.23861

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Precision and bias of spatial capture-recapture estimates: A multi-site, multi-year Utah black bear case study

Ecol Appl. 2022 Apr 3:e2618. doi: 10.1002/eap.2618. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models are powerful analytical tools that have become the standard for estimating abundance and density of wild animal populations. When sampling populations to implement SCR, the number of unique individuals detected, total recaptures, and unique spatial relocations can be highly variable. These sample sizes influence precision and accuracy of model parameter estimates. Testing the performance of SCR models with sparse empirical datasets typical of low-density, wide-ranging species can inform the threshold at which a more integrated modeling approach with additional data sources or additional years of monitoring may be required to achieve reliable, precise parameter estimates. Using a multi-site, multi-year Utah black bear (Ursus americanus) capture-recapture dataset, we evaluated factors influencing the uncertainty of SCR structural parameter estimates, specifically density, detection, and the spatial scale parameter, sigma. We also provided some of the first SCR density estimates for Utah black bear populations, which ranged from 3.85 – 74.33 bears/100 km2 . Increasing total detections decreased uncertainty of density estimates, while an increasing number of total recaptures and individuals with recaptures decreased uncertainty of detection and sigma estimates, respectively. In most cases, multiple years of data were required for precise density estimates (<0.2 CV). Across study areas there was an average decline in CV of 0.07 with the addition of another year of data. One sampled population with very high estimated bear density had an atypically low number of spatial recaptures relative to total recaptures, apparently inflating density estimates. A complementary simulation study used to assess estimate bias suggested that when < 30% of recaptured individuals were spatially recaptured, density estimates were unreliable and ranged widely, in some cases to >3 times the simulated density. Additional research could evaluate these requirements for other density scenarios. Large numbers of individuals detected, numbers of spatial recaptures, and precision alone may not be sufficient indicators of parameter estimate reliability. We provide an evaluation of simple summary statistics of capture-recapture datasets that can provide an early signal of a need to alter sampling design or collect auxiliary data before model implementation to improve estimate precision and accuracy.

PMID:35368131 | DOI:10.1002/eap.2618

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Linear mixed models to handle missing at random data in trial-based economic evaluations

Health Econ. 2022 Apr 2. doi: 10.1002/hec.4510. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are an important source of evidence in the assessment of health interventions. In these studies, cost and effectiveness outcomes are commonly measured at multiple time points, but some observations may be missing. Restricting the analysis to the participants with complete data can lead to biased and inefficient estimates. Methods, such as multiple imputation, have been recommended as they make better use of the data available and are valid under less restrictive Missing At Random (MAR) assumption. Linear mixed effects models (LMMs) offer a simple alternative to handle missing data under MAR without requiring imputations, and have not been very well explored in the CEA context. In this manuscript, we aim to familiarize readers with LMMs and demonstrate their implementation in CEA. We illustrate the approach on a randomized trial of antidepressants, and provide the implementation code in R and Stata. We hope that the more familiar statistical framework associated with LMMs, compared to other missing data approaches, will encourage their implementation and move practitioners away from inadequate methods.

PMID:35368119 | DOI:10.1002/hec.4510

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The effects of interventions to integrate long-acting reversible contraception with treatment for incomplete abortion: Results of a six-year interrupted time series analysis in hospitals in mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar

Int J Gynaecol Obstet. 2022 Apr 3. doi: 10.1002/ijgo.14203. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate an intervention strengthening voluntary access to long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) within postabortion care (PAC) in hospitals in mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar.

METHODS: From 2016 to 2018, we conducted PAC quality improvement interventions, emphasizing family planning (FP) counseling and voluntary access to LARC. Researchers conducted an interrupted time series analysis of service statistics compiled from 2014 to 2020 using segmented linear mixed effects regression models to assess the interventions’ effect on postabortion contraceptive uptake.

RESULTS: The intervention in mainland was associated with an immediate 38% increase in postabortion LARC uptake, a trend that declined from late 2016 to mid-2020 to 34%. In Zanzibar, the intervention was associated with a gradual increase in LARC uptake that peaked in late 2018 at 23% and stabilized at approximately 15% by mid-2020. Whereas the interventions in mainland did not generate significant changes in postabortion FP uptake overall, the launch of interventions in Zanzibar in mid-2016 was associated with a precipitous rise in that outcome over time, which plateaued at approximately 54% by 2019.

CONCLUSION: Increased voluntary uptake of postabortion contraception was associated with the introduction of training in PAC, including FP, and quality improvement interventions and gains were sustained over time.

PMID:35368096 | DOI:10.1002/ijgo.14203