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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Prognostic models for predicting relapse or recurrence of major depressive disorder in adults

Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2021 May 6;5:CD013491. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD013491.pub2.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Relapse (the re-emergence of depressive symptoms after some level of improvement but preceding recovery) and recurrence (onset of a new depressive episode after recovery) are common in depression, lead to worse outcomes and quality of life for patients and exert a high economic cost on society. Outcomes can be predicted by using multivariable prognostic models, which use information about several predictors to produce an individualised risk estimate. The ability to accurately predict relapse or recurrence while patients are well (in remission) would allow the identification of high-risk individuals and may improve overall treatment outcomes for patients by enabling more efficient allocation of interventions to prevent relapse and recurrence.

OBJECTIVES: To summarise the predictive performance of prognostic models developed to predict the risk of relapse, recurrence, sustained remission or recovery in adults with major depressive disorder who meet criteria for remission or recovery.

SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Library (current issue); Ovid MEDLINE (1946 onwards); Ovid Embase (1980 onwards); Ovid PsycINFO (1806 onwards); and Web of Science (1900 onwards) up to May 2020. We also searched sources of grey literature, screened the reference lists of included studies and performed a forward citation search. There were no restrictions applied to the searches by date, language or publication status .

SELECTION CRITERIA: We included development and external validation (testing model performance in data separate from the development data) studies of any multivariable prognostic models (including two or more predictors) to predict relapse, recurrence, sustained remission, or recovery in adults (aged 18 years and over) with remitted depression, in any clinical setting. We included all study designs and accepted all definitions of relapse, recurrence and other related outcomes. We did not specify a comparator prognostic model.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened references; extracted data (using a template based on the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS)); and assessed risks of bias of included studies (using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST)). We referred any disagreements to a third independent review author. Where we found sufficient (10 or more) external validation studies of an individual model, we planned to perform a meta-analysis of its predictive performance, specifically with respect to its calibration (how well the predicted probabilities match the observed proportions of individuals that experience the outcome) and discrimination (the ability of the model to differentiate between those with and without the outcome). Recommendations could not be qualified using the GRADE system, as guidance is not yet available for prognostic model reviews.

MAIN RESULTS: We identified 11 eligible prognostic model studies (10 unique prognostic models). Seven were model development studies; three were model development and external validation studies; and one was an external validation-only study. Multiple estimates of performance measures were not available for any of the models and, meta-analysis was therefore not possible. Ten out of the 11 included studies were assessed as being at high overall risk of bias. Common weaknesses included insufficient sample size, inappropriate handling of missing data and lack of information about discrimination and calibration. One paper (Klein 2018) was at low overall risk of bias and presented a prognostic model including the following predictors: number of previous depressive episodes, residual depressive symptoms and severity of the last depressive episode. The external predictive performance of this model was poor (C-statistic 0.59; calibration slope 0.56; confidence intervals not reported). None of the identified studies examined the clinical utility (net benefit) of the developed model.

AUTHORS’ CONCLUSIONS: Of the 10 prognostic models identified (across 11 studies), only four underwent external validation. Most of the studies (n = 10) were assessed as being at high overall risk of bias, and the one study that was at low risk of bias presented a model with poor predictive performance. There is a need for improved prognostic research in this clinical area, with future studies conforming to current best practice recommendations for prognostic model development/validation and reporting findings in line with the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement.

PMID:33956992 | DOI:10.1002/14651858.CD013491.pub2

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

System biology and bioinformatics pipeline to identify comorbidities risk association: Neurodegenerative disorder case study

PLoS One. 2021 May 6;16(5):e0250660. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250660. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the commonest progressive neurodegenerative condition in humans, and is currently incurable. A wide spectrum of comorbidities, including other neurodegenerative diseases, are frequently associated with AD. How AD interacts with those comorbidities can be examined by analysing gene expression patterns in affected tissues using bioinformatics tools. We surveyed public data repositories for available gene expression data on tissue from AD subjects and from people affected by neurodegenerative diseases that are often found as comorbidities with AD. We then utilized large set of gene expression data, cell-related data and other public resources through an analytical process to identify functional disease links. This process incorporated gene set enrichment analysis and utilized semantic similarity to give proximity measures. We identified genes with abnormal expressions that were common to AD and its comorbidities, as well as shared gene ontology terms and molecular pathways. Our methodological pipeline was implemented in the R platform as an open-source package and available at the following link: https://github.com/unchowdhury/AD_comorbidity. The pipeline was thus able to identify factors and pathways that may constitute functional links between AD and these common comorbidities by which they affect each others development and progression. This pipeline can also be useful to identify key pathological factors and therapeutic targets for other diseases and disease interactions.

PMID:33956862 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0250660

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Survival time to first antenatal care visit and its predictors among women in Ethiopia

PLoS One. 2021 May 6;16(5):e0251322. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251322. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: First-trimester pregnancy stage is the fastest developmental period of the fetus, in which all organs become well developed and need special care. Yet, many women make their first antenatal visit with the pregnancy already compromised due to fetomaternal complications. This study aimed to fill this dearth using the 2016 national representative data set to augment early antenatal care visits in Ethiopia.

METHODS: A cross-sectional study design using the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data set. Kaplan-Meir estimate was used to explain the median survival time of the timing of the first ANC visit. Multivariate Cox-proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to identify the factors related to the timing of the first ANC visit. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) with a 95% Confidence interval (CI) plus a p-value of < 0.05 were considered to declare a statistically significant association.

RESULTS: Data for 4666 study participants who had ANC follow-up history during pregnancy were included in the study and analyzed. The overall median survival time in this study was seven months. The timing of the first ANC visit was shorter by 2.5 times (AHR: 2.5; 95% CI: 2.34-3.68), 4.3 times (AHR: 4.3; 95% CI: 2.2-7.66), 4.8 times (AHR: 4.8, 95% CI: 4.56-10.8) among women who attended primary, secondary, and higher education as compared with non-educated one. Similarly, women who were residing in urban areas had 3.6 times (AHR: 3.6; 95% CI: 2.7-4.32) shorter timing of first ANC visit than rural residents. Furthermore, the timing of the first visit among the richest women was 3.2 times (AHR: 3.2; 95% CI: 2.5-9.65) shorter than the poorest women.

CONCLUSION: The median survival time of the first ANC visit was seven months. The timing of the first ANC was longer among younger, poorer women, those who had no access to media, who considered distances as a big challenge to reach a health facility and, those with no education. Therefore, health care providers and community health workers should provide health education to create community awareness regarding the timing of the first ANC visit.

PMID:33956902 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0251322

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Readiness of physicians and medical students to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic in the UAE

PLoS One. 2021 May 6;16(5):e0251270. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251270. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2), is the defining global health crisis of this time. It is responsible for significant morbidity and has had severe socioeconomic consequences. This study aims to assess the knowledge, preparedness and attitudes of medical students, physicians and faculty members in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on COVID-19 and their perspective on the roles of educational and healthcare institution towards improving pandemic preparedness and enabling optimal care.

METHODOLOGY: An exploratory, descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted with 444 participants, using a non-probability convenience sampling method. English-speaking participants from the medical field aged 18 and above were included in the study. The validated questionnaire was administered online and distributed across social media platforms from May-July 2020. T-test, ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis test and Mann-Whitney-U test were used when appropriate. Responses were analysed and statistical tests applied using IBM SPSS, version 25.

RESULTS: The knowledge scores were calculated amongst different ages and professional status, and the mean was 59.08% (SD = 12.848%). Almost half of the participants obtained poor knowledge scores (less than 60%). Most of the participants followed the latest updates on COVID-19 (86.7%). The majority opted to obtain information from the national health authorities (63.4%). The mean preparedness score among the participants was 68.65% (SD = 17.456%). Being in contact with patients significantly increased the preparedness score (p < 0.001). Only 27.9% of the participants believed their college education provided adequate knowledge to deal with epidemics or pandemics. Several barriers affect willingness to work in a pandemic, with 80.6% of participants worried about posing a risk to family members.

CONCLUSION: This study highlights the importance of establishing tailored COVID-19 related education programs to improve knowledge levels, especially in medical students. Efforts are still needed to promote effective control measures and address the barriers affecting willingness to work in a pandemic.

PMID:33956910 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0251270

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Advanced trophectoderm quality increases the risk of a large for gestational age baby in single frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer cycles

Hum Reprod. 2021 May 6:deab088. doi: 10.1093/humrep/deab088. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

STUDY QUESTION: Does trophectoderm (TE) quality affect birthweight after single frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer?

SUMMARY ANSWER: Transfer of single blastocyst with advanced TE quality was associated with higher birthweight and increased risk of a large for gestational age (LGA) baby.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Transfer of blastocysts with advanced TE quality results in higher ongoing pregnancy rates and a lower miscarriage risk. However, data on the relationship between TE quality and birthweight are still lacking.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This retrospective cohort study at a tertiary-care academic medical center included 1548 singleton babies born from single frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer from January 2011 to June 2019.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Babies were grouped into four groups according to embryo expansion (Stages 3, 4, 5 and 6), three groups according to inner cell mass (ICM) quality (A, B and C), and three groups according to TE quality (A, B and C). Main outcomes included absolute birthweight, Z-scores adjusted for gestational age and gender, and adverse neonatal outcomes. Multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association of neonatal outcomes with expansion stage, ICM quality and TE quality.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: As TE quality decreased, birthweight (3468.10 ± 471.52, 3357.69 ± 522.06, and 3288.79 ± 501.90 for A, B and C, respectively, P = 0.002), Z-scores (0.59 ± 1.07, 0.42 ± 1.04, and 0.27 ± 1.06 for A, B and C, respectively, P = 0.002) and incidence of LGA (28.9%, 19.7% and 17.4% for A, B and C, respectively, P = 0.027) decreased correspondingly. After adjusting for confounders, compared with the Grade A group, blastocysts with TE Grade B (standardized coefficients (β): -127.97 g, 95% CI: -234.46 to -21.47, P = 0.019) and blastocysts with TE grade C (β: -200.27 g, 95% CI: -320.69 to -79.86, P = 0.001) resulted in offspring with lower birthweight. Blastocysts with TE grade C brought babies with lower Z-scores than TE Grade A (β: -0.35, 95% CI: -0.59 to -0.10, P = 0.005). Also, embryos with TE Grade B (adjusted odds ratio (aOR):0.91, 95% CI: 0.84 to 0.99, P = 0.033) and embryos with TE Grade C (aOR : 0.89, 95% CI: 0.81 to 0.98, P = 0.016) had lower chance of leading to a LGA baby than those with TE Grade A. No association between neonatal outcomes with embryo expansion stage and ICM was observed (all P > 0.05).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The retrospective design, lack of controlling for several unknown confounders, and inter-observer variation limited this study.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The study extends our knowledge of the down-stream effect of TE quality on newborn birthweight and the risk of LGA.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was funded by National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC1003000), National Natural Science Foundation of China (81771533 to Y.P.K. and 31200825 to L.S.) and Innovative Research Team of High-level Local Universities in Shanghai (SSMU-ZLCX20180401), Shanghai Sailing Program(21YF1423200) and the Fundamental research program funding of Ninth People’s Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong university School of Medicine (JYZZ117). The authors declare no conflict of interest in this present study.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

PMID:33956949 | DOI:10.1093/humrep/deab088

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

High frequency of potential phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitor drug interactions in males with HIV infection and erectile dysfunction

PLoS One. 2021 May 6;16(5):e0250607. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250607. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the prevalence of phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitor (PDE-5) mediated drug-drug interactions (DDIs) in males with HIV infection receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) and identify factors associated with PDE-5-mediated DDIs.

METHODS: Male US Military HIV Natural History Study participants diagnosed with erectile dysfunction (ED) and having a PDE-5 inhibitor and potentially-interacting ART co-dispensed within 30 days were included. DDIs were defined according to criteria found in published guidelines and drug information resources. The primary outcome of interest was overall PDE-5 inhibitor-mediated DDI prevalence and episode duration. A secondary logistic regression analysis was performed on those with and without DDIs to identify factors associated with initial DDI episode.

RESULTS: A total of 235 male participants with ED met inclusion criteria. The majority were White (50.6%) or African American (40.4%). Median age at medication co-dispensing (45 years), duration of HIV infection (14 years), and duration of ED (1 year) did not differ between the two groups (p>0.05 for all). PDE-5 inhibitors included sildenafil (n = 124), vardenafil (n = 99), and tadalafil (n = 14). ART regimens included RTV-boosted protease inhibitors (PIs) atazanavir (n = 83) or darunavir (n = 34), and COBI-boosted elvitegravir (n = 43). Potential DDIs occurred in 181 (77.0%) participants, of whom 122 (67.4%) had multiple DDI episodes. The median DDI duration was 8 (IQR 1-12) months. In multivariate analyses, non-statistically significant higher odds of DDIs were observed with RTV-boosted PIs or PI-based ART (OR 2.13, 95% CI 0.85-5.37) and in those with a diagnosis of major depressive disorder (OR 1.74, 95% CI 0.83-3.64).

CONCLUSIONS: PDE-5-mediated DDIs were observed in the majority of males with HIV infection on RTV- or COBI-boosted ART in our cohort. This study highlights the importance of assessing for DDIs among individuals on ART, especially those on boosted regimens.

PMID:33956843 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0250607

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Profiling malaria infection among under-five children in the Democratic Republic of Congo

PLoS One. 2021 May 6;16(5):e0250550. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250550. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: In 2018, Malaria accounted for 38% of the overall morbidity and 36% of the overall mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This study aimed to identify malaria socioeconomic predictors among children aged 6-59 months in DRC and to describe a socioeconomic profile of the most-at-risk children aged 6-59 months for malaria infection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study used data from the 2013 DRC Demographic and Health Survey. The sample included 8,547 children aged 6-59 months who were tested for malaria by microscopy. Malaria infection status, the dependent variable, is a dummy variable characterized as a positive or negative test. The independent variables were child’s sex, age, and living arrangement; mother’s education; household’s socioeconomic variables; province of residence; and type of place of residence. Statistical analyses used the chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) model and logistic regression.

RESULTS: Of the 8,547 children included in the sample, 25% had malaria infection. Four variables-child’s age, mother’s education, province, and wealth index-were statistically associated with the prevalence of malaria infection in bivariate analysis and multivariate analysis (CHAID and logistic regression). The prevalence of malaria infection increases with child’s age and decreases significantly with mother’s education and the household wealth index. These findings suggest that the prevalence of malaria infection is driven by interactions among environmental factors, socioeconomic characteristics, and probably differences in the implementation of malaria programs across the country. The effect of mother’s education on malaria infection was only significant among under-five children living in Ituri, Kasaï-Central, Haut-Uele, Lomami, Nord-Ubangi, and Maniema provinces, and the effect of wealth index was significant in Mai-Ndombe, Tshopo, and Haut-Katanga provinces.

CONCLUSION: Findings from this study could be used for targeting malaria interventions in DRC. Although malaria infection is common across the country, the prevalence of children at high risk for malaria infection varies by province and other background characteristics, including age, mother’s education, wealth index, and place of residence. In light of these findings, designing provincial and multisectoral interventions could be an effective strategy to achieve zero malaria infection in DRC.

PMID:33956848 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0250550

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The use of digital texture image analysis in determining the masticatory efficiency outcome

PLoS One. 2021 May 6;16(5):e0250936. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250936. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

The mixture level of gum samples consisting of two colours can be assessed visually, using the electronic colorimetric method, employing digital image processing techniques and specially designed software. The study investigates the possibility of an alternative method called “digital texture image analysis” (DTIA) to assess improvement of masticatory efficiency in denture wearers. The objectives were i) to evaluate whether DTIA discriminates changes in the colour mixing ability within a group over time; ii) to determine whether DTIA can be used to detect improvement in chewing ability; iii) to select the most appropriate DTIA feature that sufficiently describes masticatory efficiency in CDs wearers. The study was designed as an intra-individual evaluation of masticatory efficiency, which was assessed in participants with new dentures in three follow-up times. A set of four texture features was used in the current study. Uniformity, Contrast, Homogeneity and Entropy of the obtained chewing-gum samples were correlated to the degree of gum comminution. A statistically significant difference in masticatory efficiency was observed based on the values of the analysed DTIA variables of gum samples-Uniformity, Contrast, Homogeneity, and Entropy-have changed in the participants during the observation period. The improvement of the masticatory function in relation to the mixing ability of two-coloured chewing gum could be traced by monitoring changes in the values of DTIA variables. The most increasement of masticatory efficiency was observed by monitoring DTIA parameters such as contrast, and homogeneity.

PMID:33956854 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0250936

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Aerial survey estimates of polar bears and their tracks in the Chukchi Sea

PLoS One. 2021 May 6;16(5):e0251130. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251130. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Polar bears are of international conservation concern due to climate change but are difficult to study because of low densities and an expansive, circumpolar distribution. In a collaborative U.S.-Russian effort in spring of 2016, we used aerial surveys to detect and estimate the abundance of polar bears on sea ice in the Chukchi Sea. Our surveys used a combination of thermal imagery, digital photography, and human observations. Using spatio-temporal statistical models that related bear and track densities to physiographic and biological covariates (e.g., sea ice extent, resource selection functions derived from satellite tags), we predicted abundance and spatial distribution throughout our study area. Estimates of 2016 abundance ([Formula: see text]) ranged from 3,435 (95% CI: 2,300-5,131) to 5,444 (95% CI: 3,636-8,152) depending on the proportion of bears assumed to be missed on the transect line during Russian surveys (g(0)). Our point estimates are larger than, but of similar magnitude to, a recent estimate for the period 2008-2016 ([Formula: see text]; 95% CI 1,522-5,944) derived from an integrated population model applied to a slightly smaller area. Although a number of factors (e.g., equipment issues, differing platforms, low sample sizes, size of the study area relative to sampling effort) required us to make a number of assumptions to generate estimates, it establishes a useful lower bound for abundance, and suggests high spring polar bear densities on sea ice in Russian waters south of Wrangell Island. With future improvements, we suggest that springtime aerial surveys may represent a plausible avenue for studying abundance and distribution of polar bears and their prey over large, remote areas.

PMID:33956835 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0251130

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Profiling non-small cell lung cancer reveals that PD-L1 is associated with wild type EGFR and vascular invasion, and immunohistochemistry quantification of PD-L1 correlates weakly with RT-qPCR

PLoS One. 2021 May 6;16(5):e0251080. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251080. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Most lung cancer patients are diagnosed at an advanced stage, limiting their treatment options with very low response rate. Lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer death worldwide. Therapies that target driver gene mutations (e.g. EGFR, ALK, ROS1) and checkpoint inhibitors such anti-PD-1 and PD-L1 immunotherapies are being used to treat lung cancer patients. Identification of correlations between driver mutations and PD-L1 expression will allow for the best management of patient treatment. 851 cases of non-small cell lung cancer cases were profiled for the presence of biomarkers EGFR, KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA mutations by SNaPshot/sizing genotyping. Immunohistochemistry was used to identify the protein expression of ALK and PD-L1. Total PD-L1 mRNA expression (from unsorted tumor samples) was quantified by RT-qPCR in a sub-group of the cohort to assess its correlation with PD-L1 protein level in tumor cells. Statistical analysis revealed correlations between the presence of the mutations, PD-L1 expression, and the pathological data. Specifically, increased PD-L1 expression was associated with wildtype EGFR and vascular invasion, and total PD-L1 mRNA levels correlated weakly with protein expression on tumor cells. These data provide insights into driver gene mutations and immune checkpoint status in relation to lung cancer subtypes and suggest that RT-qPCR is useful for assessing PD-L1 levels.

PMID:33956842 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0251080