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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Phenotypic plasticity as a cause and consequence of population dynamics

Ecol Lett. 2021 Aug 19. doi: 10.1111/ele.13862. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Predicting complex species-environment interactions is crucial for guiding conservation and mitigation strategies in a dynamically changing world. Phenotypic plasticity is a mechanism of trait variation that determines how individuals and populations adapt to changing and novel environments. For individuals, the effects of phenotypic plasticity can be quantified by measuring environment-trait relationships, but it is often difficult to predict how phenotypic plasticity affects populations. The assumption that environment-trait relationships validated for individuals indicate how populations respond to environmental change is commonly made without sufficient justification. Here we derive a novel general mathematical framework linking trait variation due to phenotypic plasticity to population dynamics. Applying the framework to the classical example of Nicholson’s blowflies, we show how seemingly sensible predictions made from environment-trait relationships do not generalise to population responses. As a consequence, trait-based analyses that do not incorporate population feedbacks risk mischaracterising the effect of environmental change on populations.

PMID:34412157 | DOI:10.1111/ele.13862

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Does preoperative resting genital hiatus size predict surgical outcomes?

J Obstet Gynaecol Res. 2021 Aug 19. doi: 10.1111/jog.14993. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIM: To determine whether preoperative genital hiatus at rest is predictive of medium-term prolapse recurrence.

METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of women who underwent native tissue prolapse surgery from 2002 to 2017 with pelvic organ prolapse quantification data including resting genital hiatus at one of three time points: preoperatively, 6 weeks, and ≥1 year postoperatively. Demographics and clinical data were abstracted from the chart. Prolapse recurrence was defined by anatomic outcomes (Ba > 0, Bp > 0, and/or C ≥ -4) or retreatment. Descriptive statistics, bivariate analyses, and logistic regression analyses were performed.

RESULTS: Of the 165 women included, 36 (21.8%) had prolapse recurrence at an average of 1.5 years after surgery. Preoperative resting genital hiatus did not differ between women with surgical success versus recurrence (3.5 cm [interquartile range, IQR 2.25, 4.0) vs 3.5 cm (IQR 3.0, 4.0), p = 0.71). Point Bp was greater in the recurrence group at every time point. Preoperative Bp (odds ratio [OR] 1.24, confidence interval [CI] [1.06-1.45], p = 0.01) and days from surgery (OR 1.001, CI [1.000-1.001], p < 0.01) were independently associated with recurrence. Preoperative genital hiatus at rest and strain were significantly larger among women who underwent a colpoperineorrhaphy (rest: 4.0 [3.0, 4.5] cm vs 3.5 [3.0, 4.0] cm, p < 0.01; strain: 6.0 [4.0, 6.5] cm vs 5.0 [4.0, 6.0] cm, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative genital hiatus at rest was not associated with prolapse recurrence when the majority of women underwent colpoperineorrhaphy. Preoperative Bp was more predictive of short-term prolapse recurrence. For every 1 cm increase in point Bp, there is a 24% increased odds of recurrence.

PMID:34412156 | DOI:10.1111/jog.14993

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Least kth-Order and Rényi Generative Adversarial Networks

Neural Comput. 2021 Aug 19;33(9):2473-2510. doi: 10.1162/neco_a_01416.

ABSTRACT

We investigate the use of parameterized families of information-theoretic measures to generalize the loss functions of generative adversarial networks (GANs) with the objective of improving performance. A new generator loss function, least kth-order GAN (LkGAN), is introduced, generalizing the least squares GANs (LSGANs) by using a kth-order absolute error distortion measure with k≥1 (which recovers the LSGAN loss function when k=2). It is shown that minimizing this generalized loss function under an (unconstrained) optimal discriminator is equivalent to minimizing the kth-order Pearson-Vajda divergence. Another novel GAN generator loss function is next proposed in terms of Rényi cross-entropy functionals with order α>0, α≠1. It is demonstrated that this Rényi-centric generalized loss function, which provably reduces to the original GAN loss function as α→1, preserves the equilibrium point satisfied by the original GAN based on the Jensen-Rényi divergence, a natural extension of the Jensen-Shannon divergence. Experimental results indicate that the proposed loss functions, applied to the MNIST and CelebA data sets, under both DCGAN and StyleGAN architectures, confer performance benefits by virtue of the extra degrees of freedom provided by the parameters k and α, respectively. More specifically, experiments show improvements with regard to the quality of the generated images as measured by the Fréchet inception distance score and training stability. While it was applied to GANs in this study, the proposed approach is generic and can be used in other applications of information theory to deep learning, for example, the issues of fairness or privacy in artificial intelligence.

PMID:34412112 | DOI:10.1162/neco_a_01416

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Safety and efficacy of fractional radiofrequency for the treatment and reduction of acne scarring: A prospective study

Lasers Surg Med. 2021 Aug 19. doi: 10.1002/lsm.23453. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Skin rejuvenation with radiofrequency has been a widely used treatment modality for the safe and efficient remodeling of the dermis and revision of textural irregularities, achieved with minimal downtime. The efficacy of fractional radiofrequency (FRF) specifically for acne scarring has not been widely established. The objective of this clinical trial was to establish the efficacy and safety of FRF for moderate to severe acne scarring in a wide range of Fitzpatrick skin types using two different applicator tips to deliver energy to the skin (80-pin of up to 124 mJ/pin and 160-pin of up to 62 mJ/pin).

METHODS: Enrolled subjects received a series of three FRF treatments to the full face, each 4 weeks apart. A visual analog scale was utilized to assess pain of the treatment. Subject satisfaction questionnaires were completed at follow-up visits at 6 and 12 weeks post final treatment. Photographs were graded for change by three blinded evaluators using the Global Aesthetic Improvement Scale (GAIS).

RESULTS: Image sets of 23 enrolled subjects were assessed by blinded evaluation, showing a statistically significant improvement (p = 0.009) from the baseline visit to the 12-week follow-up on the GAIS for acne scarring. Subject satisfaction was high with subjects giving an average satisfaction score of 3.27 (“satisfied”) out of 4. Pain was “mild” as treatments were rated an average of 2.15 on a 10-point visual analog scale. The GAIS score of the 80-pin tip improved patients’ acne scars treated with that applicator by 1.06 points and 0.85 for the 160-pin tip. Ninety-five percent (95.5%) of subjects reported either a mild, moderate, or significant improvement to their treatment area. Ninety-one percent of subjects reported that they would recommend the treatment to a friend.

CONCLUSION: FRF produced a statistically significant improvement in acne scarring when assessed by independent blinded evaluators. No serious adverse events resulted from treatment by either applicator tip. Treatment pain was low and tolerable among subjects of all Fitzpatrick skin types. Subjects had high levels of satisfaction with the results.

PMID:34412150 | DOI:10.1002/lsm.23453

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A Bayesian nonparametric approach to dynamic item-response modeling: An application to the GUSTO cohort study

Stat Med. 2021 Aug 19. doi: 10.1002/sim.9167. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Statistical analysis of questionnaire data is often performed employing techniques from item-response theory. In this framework, it is possible to differentiate respondent profiles and characterize the questions (items) included in the questionnaire via interpretable parameters. These models are often crosssectional and aim at evaluating the performance of the respondents. The motivating application of this work is the analysis of psychometric questionnaires taken by a group of mothers at different time points and by their children at one later time point. The data are available through the GUSTO cohort study. To this end, we propose a Bayesian semiparametric model and extend the current literature by: (i) introducing temporal dependence among questionnaires taken at different time points; (ii) jointly modeling the responses to questionnaires taken from different, but related, groups of subjects (in our case mothers and children), introducing a further dependency structure and therefore sharing of information; (iii) allowing clustering of subjects based on their latent response profile. The proposed model is able to identify three main groups of mother/child pairs characterized by their response profiles. Furthermore, we report an interesting maternal reporting bias effect strongly affecting the clustering structure of the mother/child dyads.

PMID:34412151 | DOI:10.1002/sim.9167

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Antenatal Antidepressant Prescription Associated With Reduced Fetal Femur Length but Not Estimated Fetal Weight: A Retrospective Ultrasonographic Study

J Clin Psychopharmacol. 2021 Aug 20. doi: 10.1097/JCP.0000000000001446. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE/BACKGROUND: Antidepressants are among the most frequently prescribed medications during pregnancy and may affect fetal weight. Associations between antenatal antidepressant use and ultrasonographic measures of fetal development have rarely been examined. We hypothesized that the prescription of an antenatal antidepressant would be associated with lower estimated fetal weight (EFW).

METHODS/PROCEDURES: A retrospective analysis of routine ultrasonographic data extracted from electronic medical records was performed on a cohort of pregnant women with psychiatric diagnoses and grouped according to the presence of an antenatal antidepressant prescription (n = 32 antidepressant-prescribed and n = 44 antidepressant prescription-free). After stratifying for gestational age, comparisons included 13 ultrasonographic parameters, frequency of oligohydramnios and polyhydramnios and growth deceleration, and maternal serum protein markers assessed per routine care, including α-fetoprotein, free β-human chorionic gonadotropin, and unconjugated estriol levels, using t tests, nonparametric and Fisher tests, and effect sizes (ESs) were computed.

FINDINGS/RESULTS: No statistically significant EFW differences between groups at any time point were detected (P > 0.05). Antenatal antidepressant prescription was associated with lower femur length at weeks 33 to 40 (P = 0.046, ES = 0.75) and greater left ventricular diameter at weeks 25 to 32 (P = 0.04, ES = 1.18). No differences for frequency of oligohydramnios or polyhydramnios or growth deceleration were observed (P > 0.05). We did not detect group differences for maternal proteins (P > 0.05).

IMPLICATIONS/CONCLUSIONS: Our evidence suggested a lack of association between antenatal antidepressant prescription and lower EFW but indicated an association with lower femur length and greater left ventricular diameter in mid-late gestation. Future research should examine the clinical implications of these findings.

PMID:34412105 | DOI:10.1097/JCP.0000000000001446

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A partial knowledge of friends of friends speeds social search

PLoS One. 2021 Aug 19;16(8):e0255982. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255982. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Milgram empirically showed that people knowing only connections to their friends could locate any person in the U.S. in a few steps. Later research showed that social network topology enables a node aware of its full routing to find an arbitrary target in even fewer steps. Yet, the success of people in forwarding efficiently knowing only personal connections is still not fully explained. To study this problem, we emulate it on a real location-based social network, Gowalla. It provides explicit information about friends and temporal locations of each user useful for studies of human mobility. Here, we use it to conduct a massive computational experiment to establish new necessary and sufficient conditions for achieving social search efficiency. The results demonstrate that only the distribution of friendship edges and the partial knowledge of friends of friends are essential and sufficient for the efficiency of social search. Surprisingly, the efficiency of the search using the original distribution of friendship edges is not dependent on how the nodes are distributed into space. Moreover, the effect of using a limited knowledge that each node possesses about friends of its friends is strongly nonlinear. We show that gains of such use grow statistically significantly only when this knowledge is limited to a small fraction of friends of friends.

PMID:34412110 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0255982

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Covid-19 Sero-Prevalence and Risk Factors in a Sample of Community Health Center Employees in New York State

J Occup Environ Med. 2021 Aug 18. doi: 10.1097/JOM.0000000000002357. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To document Covid-19 sero-prevalence, prior testing, symptom experiences, and risk factors in a sample of community health center (CHC) workers.

METHODS: Descriptive statistics and log-binomial regression were used to analyze an electronic employee survey linked with Covid-19 antibody results. The sample included 378 employees who completed the survey; 325 had complete lab data.

RESULTS: The sero-positivity rate was 15.4%. One third of sero-positive participants had no previous Covid-19 symptoms or were unsure. Working on-site only and/or with direct patient contact was not associated with sero-positivity. Employees in their 20 s were more likely to test positive than employees ages 50+, controlling for sex, race, and region (PR = 2.96; p < .05).

CONCLUSIONS: With CHCs central to Covid-19 response and vaccination efforts, public health messaging should remind CHC workers, especially younger employees, of their risks of community-based exposure.

PMID:34412095 | DOI:10.1097/JOM.0000000000002357

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Esketamine Nasal Spray for the Rapid Reduction of Depressive Symptoms in Major Depressive Disorder With Acute Suicidal Ideation or Behavior

J Clin Psychopharmacol. 2021 Aug 20. doi: 10.1097/JCP.0000000000001465. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE/BACKGROUND: Numerous health authority approvals of esketamine nasal spray, combined with oral antidepressant, to treat depressive symptoms in adults with major depressive disorder and acute suicidal ideation or behavior were based on 2 identically designed, double-blind, phase 3 studies.

METHODS/PROCEDURES: Across both ASPIRE studies (NCT03039192, NCT03097133), patients (N = 456) were randomized to esketamine 84 mg or placebo nasal spray twice weekly for 4 weeks plus comprehensive standard of care, including hospitalization and newly initiated or optimized antidepressant(s). In post hoc analyses of pooled data, changes from baseline at 24 hours after the first dose in Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale total score and Clinical Global Impression-Severity of Suicidality-Revised, in the full cohort and in subgroups, were analyzed using analysis of covariance.

FINDINGS/RESULTS: Esketamine plus standard of care demonstrated significantly greater improvement in Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale total score versus placebo plus standard of care at 24 hours (least square mean difference [95% confidence interval], -3.8 [-5.75 to -1.89]) and at earlier (4 hours: -3.4 [-5.05 to -1.71]) and later time points (day 25: -3.4 [-5.36 to -1.36]). The between-group difference (95% confidence interval) for change in Clinical Global Impression-Severity of Suicidality-Revised at 24 hours was -0.20 (-0.43 to 0.04) for all patients and -0.31 (-0.61 to -0.01) for those with a history of suicide attempt. Common adverse events (≥20%) during esketamine treatment were dizziness, dissociation, nausea, somnolence, and headache.

IMPLICATIONS/CONCLUSIONS: Esketamine plus comprehensive standard of care rapidly reduces depressive symptoms in patients with major depressive disorder who have acute suicidal ideation or behavior, especially in those with a history of suicide attempt, providing a new treatment option for this particularly ill and vulnerable population.

PMID:34412104 | DOI:10.1097/JCP.0000000000001465

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Middle-Ear Resonance Frequency and Eustachian Tube Function in Players of Wind Instruments

Folia Phoniatr Logop. 2021 Aug 19:1-9. doi: 10.1159/000517064. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The effect of the continuous forced expiration action of players of wind instruments to produce sound, on the eustachian tube functions and the middle-ear resonance frequency (RF), has not been investigated in the literature to date. The aim of this study is to evaluate eustachian tube functions and the middle-ear RF of players of wind instruments.

METHODS: In this prospective case-control clinical study, a study group of 28 players of wind instruments in the orchestra (28 participants, 56 ears) and a control group of 34 volunteers (34 participants, 68 ears) were included. The eustachian function of wind instrument players in a symphony orchestra was measured using an automatic eustachian tube function test in acoustic tympanometry and the RF of the middle ear was determined in multifrequency tympanometry.

RESULTS: There was a statistically significant difference among the musicians, especially in players of woodwind instruments, in terms of dysfunction of the eustachian tubes (p = 0.048). In the musicians, the pre- and postperformance RF mean values for all ears were 925 and 1,020 Hz, respectively, and these were significantly different (p = 0.004).

CONCLUSION: This is the first study to uses multifrequency tympanometry to examine the middle-ear RF and eustachian tube function of wind instrument musicians in an orchestra. Eustachian tube dysfunction was found to be more prominent and a higher RF of the middle ear was seen after a performance, especially in players of wood wind instruments. However, the effect of these on the professional performance of players of wind instruments should be investigated in future work.

PMID:34412053 | DOI:10.1159/000517064