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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Accuracy of the Simplified HOSPITAL Score in Predicting COVID-19 Readmissions-Exploring Outcomes from a Hospital-at-Home Program

J Healthc Manag. 2021 Nov 23. doi: 10.1097/JHM-D-21-00092. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

GOAL: As strategies emerge to off-load hospital systems and prevent readmissions amid the COVID-19 pandemic, pragmatic assessments of readmission risk become increasingly important. The simplified HOSPITAL score is an extensively validated tool that predicts 30-day potentially avoidable readmission (PAR). Scores of 0 to 4 predict a 30-day PAR risk of 6.4%, while scores ≥ 5 predict a 30-day PAR risk of 17.3%. Its role in patients with COVID-19 is unknown. Our goal was to assess the simplified HOSPITAL score’s accuracy in patients with COVID-19 and explore outcomes related to a hospital-at-home program.

METHODS: Patients discharged following an admission for clinically symptomatic COVID-19 from two hospitals belonging to the same healthcare system in the Midwest were included. Those who died, discharged to hospice or an acute care hospital, whose length of stay was < 1 day, or who discharged against medical advice were excluded. The simplified HOSPITAL score was tabulated for included patients to predict their 30-day PAR risk. The Brier score was calculated to compare the observed rates of 30-day readmission with rates predicted by the simplified HOSPITAL score. Prediction models with a Brier score <.25 are considered useful.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Among 612 patients, the overall 30-day PAR rate was 10.1%. Most patients (n = 522 [85.3%]) had simplified HOSPITAL scores of 0 to 4, and 41 (7.8%) of these patients were readmitted. Among the 90 patients (14.7%) with scores ≥5, 21 (23.3%) were readmitted. The Brier score was 0.088, indicating very good accuracy between the predicted readmission risk and observed readmissions. In patients with scores 0 to 4, readmissions were highest in those discharged to acute or subacute rehabilitation (10.4% [8/77]), intermediate in those discharged home (8.1% [32/394]), and lowest in those discharged to hospital at home (1.9% [1/51]). However, these differences did not reach statistical significance.

APPLICATION TO PRACTICE: The simplified HOSPITAL score was accurate in patients with COVID-19 and can be used to direct resources toward those predicted to be at increased risk for readmission and to assess outcomes from readmission reduction strategies. Hospitals at home may be a promising strategy to decrease readmissions in patients with COVID-19.

PMID:34816806 | DOI:10.1097/JHM-D-21-00092

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Utilizing patient information to identify subtype heterogeneity of cancer driver genes

Stat Methods Med Res. 2021 Nov 24:9622802211055854. doi: 10.1177/09622802211055854. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Identifying cancer driver genes is essential for understanding the mechanisms of carcinogenesis and designing therapeutic strategies. Although driver genes have been identified for many cancer types, it is still not clear whether the selection pressure of driver genes is homogeneous across cancer subtypes. We propose a statistical framework MutScot to improve the identification of driver genes and to investigate the heterogeneity of driver genes across cancer subtypes. Through simulation studies, we show that MutScot properly controls the type I error in detecting driver genes. In addition, we demonstrate that MutScot can identify subtype heterogeneity of driver genes. Applications to three studies in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project showcase that MutScot has a desirable sensitivity for detecting driver genes and that MutScot identifies subtype heterogeneity of driver genes in breast cancer and lung cancer with regards to the status of hormone receptor and to the smoking status, respectively.

PMID:34816788 | DOI:10.1177/09622802211055854

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Evaluation of selected IL6/STAT3 pathway molecules and miRNA expression in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Sci Rep. 2021 Nov 23;11(1):22756. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-01950-8.

ABSTRACT

COPD has been regarded as a global epidemic due to an increase in pollution and tobacco exposure. Therefore, the study of molecular mechanism as the basis for modern therapy is important. The aim of the study was the assessment of gene expression levels, IL-6, IL-6ST, PIAS3, STAT3, and miRNAs, miRNA-1, miRNA-106b, miRNA-155, in patients with COPD. Induced sputum as well as PBMC were collected from 40 patients clinically verified according to the GOLD 2021 (A-D) classification and from the control group (n = 20). The levels of gene and miRNA expression were analysed by qPCR. In induced sputum IL6 was significantly down-regulated in COPD group compared with control (p = 0.0008), while IL6ST were up-regulated (p = 0.05). The results were also statistically significant for STAT3 (p = 0.04) and miRNA-155 (p = 0.03) with higher expression in the current smokers compared to ex-smokers. Higher expression levels for IL6ST (p = 0.03) in COPD patients with the exacerbation history compared to COPD patients without the exacerbation history were noted. Compared induced sputum and PB lymphocytes we observed higher expression of IL6 (p = 0.0003), STAT3 (p = 0.000001) miRNA-106b (p = 0.000069 and miRNA-155 (p = 0.000016) in induced sputum with lower expression of PIAS3 (p = 0.006), IL6ST (p = 0.002) and miRNA-1 (p = 0.001). Differences in gene expression levels of the IL-6/IL6ST/STAT3 pathway and miRNA depending on the smoking status and classification of patients according to GOLD suggest the importance of these genes in the pathogenesis of COPD and may indicate their potential utility in monitoring the course of the disease.

PMID:34815425 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-01950-8

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Adaptation, spread and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in farmed minks and associated humans in the Netherlands

Nat Commun. 2021 Nov 23;12(1):6802. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27096-9.

ABSTRACT

In the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (April 2020), SARS-CoV-2 was detected in farmed minks and genomic sequencing was performed on mink farms and farm personnel. Here, we describe the outbreak and use sequence data with Bayesian phylodynamic methods to explore SARS-CoV-2 transmission in minks and humans on farms. High number of farm infections (68/126) in minks and farm workers (>50% of farms) were detected, with limited community spread. Three of five initial introductions of SARS-CoV-2 led to subsequent spread between mink farms until November 2020. Viruses belonging to the largest cluster acquired an amino acid substitution in the receptor binding domain of the Spike protein (position 486), evolved faster and spread longer and more widely. Movement of people and distance between farms were statistically significant predictors of virus dispersal between farms. Our study provides novel insights into SARS-CoV-2 transmission between mink farms and highlights the importance of combining genetic information with epidemiological information when investigating outbreaks at the animal-human interface.

PMID:34815406 | DOI:10.1038/s41467-021-27096-9

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Crash and disengagement data of autonomous vehicles on public roads in California

Sci Data. 2021 Nov 23;8(1):298. doi: 10.1038/s41597-021-01083-7.

ABSTRACT

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are being widely tested on public roads in several countries such as the USA, Canada, France, Germany, and Australia. For the transparent deployment of AVs in California, the California Department of Motor Vehicles (CA DMV) commissioned AV manufacturers to draft and publish reports on disengagements and crashes. These reports must be processed before any statistical analysis, which is cumbersome and time-consuming. Our dataset presents the processed disengagement data from 2014 to 2019, crash data till the 10th of March 2020 and supplementary road network and land-use data extracted from OpenStreetMap. Primary data are manually assessed and converted into an easily processed format. Our processed data will be advantageous to the research community and enable accelerated research in this domain. For example, the data can be utilised to discern trends in disengagement, observe the distribution of disengagement causes, and investigate the contributory factors of the crashes. Such investigations can subsequently improve the reporting protocols and make policies and laws for the smooth deployment of this disruptive technology.

PMID:34815404 | DOI:10.1038/s41597-021-01083-7

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Variations in FVC and FEV1 Biologic Quality Control Measures in a Global Multi-Center Clinical Trial

Respir Care. 2021 Nov 23:respcare.09518. doi: 10.4187/respcare.09518. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Although quality control standards are recommended to ensure accurate test results, the coefficient of variation for the FVC and FEV1 biologic quality control (BioQC) is not specified. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate variations in spirometry BioQCs in a large and diverse cohort of individuals to determine an acceptable standard for the coefficient of variation.

METHODS: The FVC and FEV1 biologic control data were secondary analyses from an inhaled medication trial that was conducted over 3 y ending in 2018 that included 114 laboratories. Results were sent to a central repository for expert review. The FVC and FEV1 coefficients of variation were based upon a minimum of 10 spirometry values annually separated by at least 5 d. A second method of computing the coefficient of variation used 10 values within 28 d. Descriptive statistics were computed. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were conducted to compare whether the median coefficient of variation values between the 2 methods differed, tested at α = 0.05 using SPSS.

RESULTS: Of 249 biologic control participants, 170 met the first year’s inclusion criteria. The coefficient of variation for the 5-d separated method was < 5% for 94.1% of FVC and 93.5% of FEV1 values in the first year. By year 3, 90% of FVC and FEV1 coefficient of variation values were < 4%. The medians for the 5-d separated and the 28-d measure showed no difference for either FVC coefficient of variation or FEV1 coefficient of variation, Z = -1.764, P = .78, and Z = -0.980, P = .33, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Interlab biologic control variation values of < 4% for FVC and FEV1 are achievable; however, individual labs should strive to attain lower values. Acceptable coefficients of variation can be achieved within 28 d.

PMID:34815323 | DOI:10.4187/respcare.09518

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Malignancy risk of indeterminate mammographic calcification in symptomatic breast clinics

Postgrad Med J. 2021 Nov 23:postgradmedj-2021-140835. doi: 10.1136/postgradmedj-2021-140835. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To explore the potential risk factors predicting malignancy in patients with indeterminate incidental mammographic microcalcification and to evaluate the short-term risk of developing malignancy.

METHODS: Between January 2011 and December 2015, one hundred and fifty (150) consecutive patients with indeterminate mammographic microcalcifications who had undergone stereotactic biopsy were evaluated. Clinical and mammographic features were recorded and compared with histopathological biopsy results. In patients with malignancy, postsurgical findings and surgical upgrade, if any, were recorded. Linear regression analysis (SPSS V.25) was used to evaluate significant variables predicting malignancy. OR with 95% CIs was calculated for all variables. All patients were followed up for a maximum of 10 years. The mean age of the patients was 52 years (range 33-79 years).

RESULTS: There were a total of 55 (37%) malignant results in this study cohort. Age was an independent predictor of breast malignancy with an OR (95% CI) of 1.10 (1.03 to 1.16). Mammographic microcalcification size, pleomorphic morphology, multiple clusters and linear/segmental distribution were significantly associated with malignancy with OR (CI) of 1.03 (1.002 to 1.06), 6.06 (2.24 to 16.66), 6.35 (1.44 to 27.90) and 4.66 (1.07 to 20.19). The regional distribution of microcalcification had an OR of 3.09 (0.92 to 10.3), but this was not statistically significant. Patients with previous breast biopsies had a lower risk of breast malignancy than patients with no prior biopsy (p=0.034).

CONCLUSION: Multiple clusters, linear/segmental distribution, pleomorphic morphology, size of mammographic microcalcifications and increasing age were independent predictors of malignancy. Having a previous breast biopsy did not increase malignancy risk.

PMID:34815330 | DOI:10.1136/postgradmedj-2021-140835

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Individualized VDJ recombination predisposes the available Ig sequence space

Genome Res. 2021 Nov 23. doi: 10.1101/gr.275373.121. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The process of recombination between variable (V), diversity (D), and joining (J) immunoglobulin (Ig) gene segments determines an individual’s naive Ig repertoire and, consequently, (auto)antigen recognition. VDJ recombination follows probabilistic rules that can be modeled statistically. So far, it remains unknown whether VDJ recombination rules differ between individuals. If these rules differed, identical (auto)antigen-specific Ig sequences would be generated with individual-specific probabilities, signifying that the available Ig sequence space is individual specific. We devised a sensitivity-tested distance measure that enables inter-individual comparison of VDJ recombination models. We discovered, accounting for several sources of noise as well as allelic variation in Ig sequencing data, that not only unrelated individuals but also human monozygotic twins and even inbred mice possess statistically distinguishable immunoglobulin recombination models. This suggests that, in addition to genetic, there is also nongenetic modulation of VDJ recombination. We demonstrate that population-wide individualized VDJ recombination can result in orders of magnitude of difference in the probability to generate (auto)antigen-specific Ig sequences. Our findings have implications for immune receptor-based individualized medicine approaches relevant to vaccination, infection, and autoimmunity.

PMID:34815307 | DOI:10.1101/gr.275373.121

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

No Signs of Neuroinflammation in Women With Chronic Fatigue Syndrome or Q Fever Fatigue Syndrome Using the TSPO Ligand [11C]-PK11195

Neurol Neuroimmunol Neuroinflamm. 2021 Nov 23;9(1):e1113. doi: 10.1212/NXI.0000000000001113. Print 2022 Jan.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The pathophysiology of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) and Q fever fatigue syndrome (QFS) remains elusive. Recent data suggest a role for neuroinflammation as defined by increased expression of translocator protein (TSPO). In the present study, we investigated whether there are signs of neuroinflammation in female patients with CFS and QFS compared with healthy women, using PET with the TSPO ligand 11C-(R)-(2-chlorophenyl)-N-methyl-N-(1-methylpropyl)-3-isoquinoline-carbox-amide ([11C]-PK11195).

METHODS: The study population consisted of patients with CFS (n = 9), patients with QFS (n = 10), and healthy subjects (HSs) (n = 9). All subjects were women, matched for age (±5 years) and neighborhood, aged between 18 and 59 years, who did not use any medication other than paracetamol or oral contraceptives, and were not vaccinated in the last 6 months. None of the subjects reported substance abuse in the past 3 months or reported signs of underlying psychiatric disease on the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview. All subjects underwent a [11C]-PK11195 PET scan, and the [11C]-PK11195 binding potential (BPND) was calculated.

RESULTS: No statistically significant differences in BPND were found for patients with CFS or patients with QFS compared with HSs. BPND of [11C]-PK11195 correlated with symptom severity scores in patients with QFS, but a negative correlation was found in patients with CFS.

DISCUSSION: In contrast to what was previously reported for CFS, we found no significant difference in BPND of [11C]-PK11195 when comparing patients with CFS or QFS with healthy neighborhood controls. In this small series, we were unable to find signs of neuroinflammation in patients with CFS and QFS.

TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: EudraCT number 2014-004448-37.

PMID:34815320 | DOI:10.1212/NXI.0000000000001113

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Feasibility of allied health assistant management of people with acute hip fracture: protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial

BMJ Open. 2021 Nov 23;11(11):e054298. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-054298.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Guidelines for hip fracture care state that patients with hip fracture should be mobilised on the day after surgery and at least once a day thereafter. However, compliance with these guidelines is poor. One approach that would assist physiotherapists to meet mobility guidelines after hip fracture is to delegate the provision of daily mobilisation to allied health assistants under their supervision. Therefore, we plan to conduct a randomised controlled trial to determine the feasibility of an allied health assistant providing daily inpatient rehabilitation to patients with hip fracture.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Using a parallel group randomised controlled design with one-to-one allocation, participants will be randomly allocated to an experimental group (allied health assistant management) or a comparison group (physiotherapist management). Inclusion criteria are: adult with diagnosis of hip fracture; inpatient in acute hospital; walked independently pre-hip fracture and able to communicate in conversational English. The experimental group will receive routine physiotherapy rehabilitation, including daily mobilisation, from an allied health assistant following initial physiotherapist assessment. The comparison group will receive routine rehabilitation from a physiotherapist. The primary outcome will be the feasibility of allied health assistant management of patients with hip fracture. Feasibility will be determined using the following areas of focus in Bowen’s feasibility framework: acceptability (patient satisfaction), demand (proportion of patients who participate), implementation (time allied health assistant/physiotherapist spends with participant, occasions of service) and practicality (cost, adverse events). Staff involved in the implementation of allied health assistant care will be interviewed to explore their perspectives on feasibility. Secondary outcomes include compliance with daily mobilisation guidelines, discharge destination, hospital readmission, falls, functional activity and length of stay. We aim to recruit 50 participants. Descriptive statistics will be used to describe feasibility and mobilisation rates will be calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression to compare compliance with mobilisation guidelines.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was obtained from the Peninsula Health human research ethics committee (HREC/63 005/PH-2020). The findings will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations.

TRAIL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry; ACTRN12620000877987; Pre-results.

PMID:34815289 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2021-054298