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Nevin Manimala Statistics

New scoring systems for predicting advanced proximal neoplasia in asymptomatic adults with or without knowing distal colorectal findings: a prospective, cross-sectional study

Eur J Cancer Prev. 2021 Sep 17. doi: 10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000715. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Models estimating risk for advanced proximal colorectal neoplasia (APN) may be used to select colorectal cancer (CRC) screening test, either prior to knowing distal colorectal findings or afterward. Current models have only fair discrimination and nearly all require knowing distal findings.

OBJECTIVE: Derive and test risk prediction models for APN with and without distal findings.

SETTING: Selected endoscopy centers within central Indiana, USA.

PARTICIPANTS: Average-risk persons undergoing first-time screening colonoscopy.

INTERVENTIONS: Demographics, personal and family medical history, lifestyle factors and physical measures were linked to the most advanced finding in proximal and distal colorectal segments. For both models, logistic regression identified factors independently associated with APN on a derivation set. Based on equation coefficients, points were assigned to each factor, and risk for APN was examined for each score. Scores with comparable risks were collapsed into risk categories. Both models and their scoring systems were tested on the validation set.

MAIN OUTCOME: APN, defined as any adenoma or sessile serrated lesion ≥1 cm, one with villous histology or high-grade dysplasia, or CRC proximal to the descending colon.

RESULTS: Among 3025 subjects in the derivation set (mean age 57.3 ± 6.5 years; 52% women), APN prevalence was 4.5%; 2859 (94.5%) had complete data on risk factors. Independently associated with APN were age, sex, cigarette smoking, cohabitation status, metabolic syndrome, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and physical activity. This model (without distal findings) was well-calibrated (P = 0.62) and had good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.73). In low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups that comprised 21, 58 and 21% of the sample, respectively, APN risks were 1.47% (95% CI, 0.67-2.77%), 3.09% (CI, 2.31-4.04%) and 11.6% (CI, 9.10-14.4%), respectively (P < 0.0001), with no proximal CRCs in the low-risk group and 2 in the intermediate-risk group. When tested in the validation set of 1455, the model retained good metrics (calibration P = 0.85; c-statistic = 0.83), with APN risks in low- (22%), intermediate- (56%) and high-risk (22%) subgroups of 0.62% (CI, 0.08-2.23%) 2.20% (CI, 1.31-3.46%) and 13.0% (CI, 9.50-17.2%), respectively (P < 0.0001). There were no proximal CRCs in the low-risk group, and two in the intermediate-risk group. The model with distal findings performed comparably, with validation set metrics of 0.18 for calibration, 0.76 for discrimination and APN risk (% sample) in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups of 1.1 (69%), 8.3 (22%) and 22.3% (9%).

CONCLUSION: These models stratify large proportions of average-risk persons into clinically meaningful risk groups, and could improve screening efficiency, particularly for noncolonoscopy-based programs.

PMID:34545024 | DOI:10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000715

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Gallbladder disease and pancreatic cancer risk: a multicentric case-control European study

Eur J Cancer Prev. 2021 Sep 17. doi: 10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000588. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The overall evidence on the association between gallbladder conditions (GBC: gallstones and cholecystectomy) and pancreatic cancer (PC) is inconsistent. To our knowledge, no previous investigations considered the role of tumour characteristics on this association. Thus, we aimed to assess the association between self-reported GBC and PC risk, by focussing on timing to PC diagnosis and tumour features (stage, location, and resection).

METHODS: Data derived from a European case-control study conducted between 2009 and 2014 including 1431 PC cases and 1090 controls. We used unconditional logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) adjusted for recognized confounders.

RESULTS: Overall, 298 (20.8%) cases and 127 (11.6%) controls reported to have had GBC, corresponding to an OR of 1.70 (95% CI 1.33-2.16). The ORs were 4.84 (95% CI 2.96-7.89) for GBC diagnosed <3 years before PC and 1.06 (95% CI 0.79-1.41) for ≥3 years. The risk was slightly higher for stage I/II (OR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.15-2.55) vs. stage III/IV tumours (OR = 1.23, 95% CI 0.87-1.76); for tumours sited in the head of the pancreas (OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.13-2.24) vs. tumours located at the body/tail (OR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.62-1.68); and for tumours surgically resected (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.14-2.51) vs. non-resected tumours (OR = 1.25, 95% CI 0.88-1.78). The corresponding ORs for GBC diagnosed ≥3 years prior PC were close to unity.

CONCLUSION: Our study supports the association between GBC and PC. Given the time-risk pattern observed, however, this relationship may be non-causal and, partly or largely, due to diagnostic attention and/or reverse causation.

PMID:34545020 | DOI:10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000588

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Coffee consumption and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis from the Stomach cancer Pooling Project consortium

Eur J Cancer Prev. 2021 Sep 17. doi: 10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000680. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate and quantify the relationship between coffee and gastric cancer using a uniquely large dataset from an international consortium of observational studies on gastric cancer, including data from 18 studies, for a total of 8198 cases and 21 419 controls.

METHODS: A two-stage approach was used to obtain the pooled odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for coffee drinkers versus never or rare drinkers. A one-stage logistic mixed-effects model with a random intercept for each study was used to estimate the dose-response relationship. Estimates were adjusted for sex, age and the main recognized risk factors for gastric cancer.

RESULTS: Compared to never or rare coffee drinkers, the estimated pooled OR for coffee drinkers was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.94-1.13). When the amount of coffee intake was considered, the pooled ORs were 0.91 (95% CI, 0.81-1.03) for drinkers of 1-2 cups per day, 0.95 (95% CI, 0.82-1.10) for 3-4 cups, and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.79-1.15) for five or more cups. An OR of 1.20 (95% CI, 0.91-1.58) was found for heavy coffee drinkers (seven or more cups of caffeinated coffee per day). A positive association emerged for high coffee intake (five or more cups per day) for gastric cardia cancer only.

CONCLUSIONS: These findings better quantify the previously available evidence of the absence of a relevant association between coffee consumption and gastric cancer.

PMID:34545022 | DOI:10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000680

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The Albumin-bilirubin Score Detects Changes in the Liver Function During Treatment for Budd-Chiari Syndrome: A Retrospective Observational Study

Intern Med. 2021 Sep 18. doi: 10.2169/internalmedicine.8020-21. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Objective Mapping the long-term prognosis of Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) is difficult, as the prognosis is associated with changes in the liver function. The present study evaluated the time course changes in the liver function in a treatment group with percutaneous old balloon angioplasty (POBA) and a non-treatment group using the albumin-bilirubin score (ALBI) and Child-Pugh score during long-term follow-up. Methods In this retrospective study, 13 consecutive patients diagnosed with BCS at our hospital between 2007 and 2020 were categorized into a treatment group (n=8), which received POBA, and a non-treatment group (n=5). Differences in the liver function in the ALBI and Child-Pugh scores between the initial visit and one- and three-year follow-up were calculated and statistically evaluated. We investigated the changes in the liver function during the long-term follow-up, including events such as re-stenosis and re-treatment. Results While the Child-Pugh scores in the treatment group did not differ significantly between the initial visit and 1- or 3-year follow-up, the ALBI scores in this group improved significantly between the initial visit and the 1- or 3-year follow-up visit (p=0.0078 and 0.0156, respectively). The liver function according to the ALBI score in the treatment group showed gradual improvement from the initial value but gradual worsening in the non-treatment group. The ALBI scores also revealed that the liver function varies according to re-stenosis and re-POBA in BCS patients. Conclusion Unlike the Child-Pugh score, the ALBI score was able to capture changes in the liver function of BCS patients during the long-term course of BCS.

PMID:34544949 | DOI:10.2169/internalmedicine.8020-21

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Culprit-Plaque Morphology and Residual SYNTAX Score Predict Cardiovascular Risk in Acute Myocardial Infarction: An Optical Coherence Tomography Study

J Atheroscler Thromb. 2021 Sep 19. doi: 10.5551/jat.63103. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Culprit-plaque morphology [plaque rupture (PR) and plaque erosion (PE)] and high-risk plaques (HRP) identified by optical coherence tomography (OCT) and residual SYNTAX score (rSS) have been reported to influence clinical outcomes. Thus, in this study, we aimed to investigate the prognostic implication of culprit-plaque morphology and rSS for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS: Based on plaque morphology and rSS, 274 STEMI patients were divided into 4 groups: PE/low-rSS (n=61), PE/high-rSS (n=58), PR/low-rSS (n=55), and PR/high-rSS (n=100). According to HRP and rSS, patients were stratified to non-HRP/low-rSS (n=97), non-HRP/high-rSS (n=109), HRP/low-rSS (n=19), and HRP/high-rSS (n=49). MACE was defined as the composite of all-cause death, recurrence of myocardial infarction, stroke, and unplanned revascularization of any coronary artery.

RESULTS: During the follow-up of 2.2 years, 47 (17.2%) MACE were observed. Patients with PR/high-rSS and HRP/high-rSS presented lower survival probability on revascularization and MACE. In fully adjusted analyses, PR/high-rSS group presented higher MACE risk than PE/low-rSS (HR: 4.80, 95% CI: 1.43-16.11, P=0.025). Patients with non-HRP/high-rSS (HR: 2.90, 95% CI: 1.01-8.38, P=0.049) and HRP/high-rSS (HR: 8.67, 95% CI: 2.67-28.21, P<0.001) presented higher risk of cardiac events than non-HRP/low-rSS. Adding rSS and HRP to the risk prediction model increased the C-statistic to 0.797 (95% CI: 0.737-0.857), with ΔC-statistic of 0.066 (P=0.002) and the NRI (46.0%, 95% CI: 20.5-56.8%, P<0.001) and IDI (8.7%, 95% CI: 3.6-18.2%, P<0.001).

CONCLUSION: High-risk plaques in combination with rSS enhanced the predictive ability for MACE, indicating culprit-plaque features and residual atherosclerosis burden should be taken into account in risk stratification of STEMI patients.

PMID:34544957 | DOI:10.5551/jat.63103

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Integration of advanced technologies for plant variety and cultivar identification

J Biosci. 2021;46:91.

ABSTRACT

Identification of plant variety and cultivar is pivotal in the agricultural sector due to the abundance of plant varieties and cultivars developed in many crop species. However, plant variety and cultivar identification via basic morphological features is problematic and challenging when differentiating closely related species not only due to their limited differences but also due to technical limitations of the process being time-consuming, labour-intensive and costly, and statistically imprecise information being available due to phenotypic plasticity. Therefore, it is imperative to have rapid and highly efficient techniques to mitigate these limitations. This review provides an overview and summarization of the development and application of molecular markers such as Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD), Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (RFLP), Simple Sequence Repeats (SSR), Inter-simple sequence repeats (ISSR), Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP), Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and DNA barcoding, High-resolution melting (HRM) and biosensor technology as potential tools in the identification of plant variety and cultivar.

PMID:34544910

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Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex antibodies in free-ranged wild boar and wild macaques in selected districts in Selangor and reevaluation of tuberculosis serodetection in captive Asian elephants in Pahang, Peninsular Malaysia

J Vet Med Sci. 2021 Sep 20. doi: 10.1292/jvms.21-0144. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic inflammatory and zoonotic disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) members, affecting several domestic animals, wildlife species and humans. The preliminary investigation was aimed to detect antibody against MTBC among indigenous wildlife which are free-ranged wild boar, free-ranged wild macaques and captive Asian elephants in selected areas of Selangor and elephant conservation centre in Pahang, respectively. The results indicate that MTBC serodetection rate in wild boar was 16.7% (7.3-33.5 at 95% Confidence Interval) using an in-house ELISA bPPD IgG and 10% (3.5-25.6 at 95% CI) by DPP®VetTB assay, while the wild macaques and Asian elephant were seronegative. The univariate analysis indicates no statistically significant difference in risk factors for sex and age of wild boar but there was a significant positive correlation (P<0.05) between bovine TB in dairy cattle and wild boar seropositivity in the Sepang district.

PMID:34544936 | DOI:10.1292/jvms.21-0144

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Prognostic value of admission high-sensitivity troponin in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction

Heart. 2021 Sep 20:heartjnl-2021-319225. doi: 10.1136/heartjnl-2021-319225. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Although the diagnostic usefulness of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) is well established in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), its prognostic relevance in risk stratification of patients with STEMI remains obscure. This study sought to determine the prognostic value of pre-reperfusion (admission) and post-reperfusion (12-hour) hs-cTnT in patients with STEMI treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI).

METHODS: Retrospective observational longitudinal study including consecutive patients with STEMI treated with PPCI at a university hospital in the northeast of England. hs-cTnT was measured at admission to the catheterisation laboratory and 12 hours after PPCI. Clinical, procedural and laboratory data were prospectively collected during patient hospitalisation (June 2010-December 2014). Mortality data were obtained from the UK Office of National Statistics. The study endpoints were in-hospital and overall mortality.

RESULTS: A total of 3113 patients were included. Median follow-up was 53 months. Admission hs-cTnT >515 ng/L (fourth quartile) was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (HR=2.53 per highest to lower quartiles; 95% CI: 1.32 to 4.85; p=0.005) after multivariable adjustment for a clinical model of mortality prediction. Likewise, admission hs-cTnT >515 ng/L independently predicted overall mortality (HR=1.27 per highest to lower quartiles; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.59; p=0.029). Admission hs-cTnT correctly reclassified risk for in-hospital death (net reclassification index (NRI)=0.588, p<0.001) and overall mortality (NRI=0.178, p=0.001). Conversely, 12-hour hs-cTnT was not independently associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION: Admission, but not 12-hour post-reperfusion, hs-cTnT predicts mortality and improves risk stratification in the PPCI era. These results support a prognostic role for admission hs-cTnT while challenge the cost-effectiveness of routine 12-hour hs-cTnT measurements in patients with STEMI.

PMID:34544804 | DOI:10.1136/heartjnl-2021-319225

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Unionisation and injury risk in construction: a replication study

Occup Environ Med. 2021 Sep 20:oemed-2021-107617. doi: 10.1136/oemed-2021-107617. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To replicate, in a more recent time period, a previous cross-sectional study to estimate the association between unionisation and the risk of workers’ compensation injury claims.

METHODS: The sampling frame was workers’ compensation company account records in the industrial, commercial and institutional construction sector in the province of Ontario, Canada, 2012-2018. Company unionisation status was determined through linkage with records of unionised contractors. Outcomes were cumulative counts of workers’ compensation injury claims, aggregated to company business. Risk ratios were estimated with multivariable negative binomial regression models. Models were also fit separately to lost-time claims stratified by company size.

RESULTS: Business unionisation was associated with a lower lost-time claim incidence (crude risk ratio, CRR=0.69, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.74); adjusted risk ratio, ARR=0.75, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.80). In subgroup analyses, the magnitude of the ARR declined as company size decreased and was not statistically significant for the smallest-sized companies of ≤4 full-time equivalent employees. Unionisation was associated (positively) with the incidence of no-lost-time claims in a crude model, but not in an adjusted one (CRR=1.80, 95% CI 1.71 to 1.89; ARR=1.04, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.09).

CONCLUSIONS: Company unionisation was associated with a lower risk of lost-time workers’ compensation injury claims, corroborating a similar study from an earlier time period. The protective effect of unionisation declined as company size decreased. In contrast to the previous study, a positive relationship between company unionisation and no-lost-time claim incidence was not found, due in part to a methodological refinement.

PMID:34544893 | DOI:10.1136/oemed-2021-107617

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Cancer detection via primary care urgent referral and association with practice characteristics: a retrospective cross-sectional study in England from 2009/2010 to 2018/2019

Br J Gen Pract. 2021 Jun 25:BJGP.2020.1030. doi: 10.3399/BJGP.2020.1030. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There is substantial variation in the use of urgent suspected cancer referral (2-week wait [2WW]) between practices.

AIM: To examine the change in use of 2WW referrals in England over 10 years (2009/2010 to 2018/2019) and the practice and population factors associated with cancer detection.

DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cross-sectional study of English general practices and their 2WW referral and Cancer Waiting Times database detection data (all cancers other than non-melanoma skin cancers) from 2009/2010 to 2018/2019.

METHOD: A retrospective study conducted using descriptive statistics of changes over 10 years in 2WW referral data. Yearly linear regression models were used to determine the association between cancer detection rates and quintiles of practice and population characteristics. Predicted cancer detection rates were calculated, as well as the difference between lowest to highest quintiles.

RESULTS: Over the 10 years studied there were 14.89 million 2WW referrals (2.24 million in 2018/2019), and 2.68 million new cancer diagnoses, of which 1.26 million were detected following 2WW. The detection rate increased from 41% to 52% over the time period. In 2018/2019 an additional 66 172 cancers were detected via 2WW compared with 2009/2010. Higher cancer detection via 2WW referrals was associated with larger practices and those with younger GPs. From 2016/2017 onwards more deprived practice populations were associated with decreased cancer detection.

CONCLUSION: From 2009/2010 to 2018/2019 2WW referrals increased on average by 10% year on year. The most consistent association with higher cancer detection was found for larger practices and those with younger GPs, though these differences became attenuated over time. The more recent association between increased practice deprivation and lower cancer detection is a cause for concern. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant impacts on 2WW referral activity and the impact on patient outcomes will need to be studied.

PMID:34544690 | DOI:10.3399/BJGP.2020.1030