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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Derivation and validation of a clinical predictive model for longer duration diarrhea among pediatric patients in Kenya using machine learning algorithms

BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2025 Jan 15;25(1):28. doi: 10.1186/s12911-025-02855-6.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Despite the adverse health outcomes associated with longer duration diarrhea (LDD), there are currently no clinical decision tools for timely identification and better management of children with increased risk. This study utilizes machine learning (ML) to derive and validate a predictive model for LDD among children presenting with diarrhea to health facilities.

METHODS: LDD was defined as a diarrhea episode lasting ≥ 7 days. We used 7 ML algorithms to build prognostic models for the prediction of LDD among children < 5 years using de-identified data from Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa study (N = 1,482) in model development and data from Enterics for Global Health Shigella study (N = 682) in temporal validation of the champion model. Features included demographic, medical history and clinical examination data collected at enrolment in both studies. We conducted split-sampling and employed K-fold cross-validation with over-sampling technique in the model development. Moreover, critical predictors of LDD and their impact on prediction were obtained using an explainable model agnostic approach. The champion model was determined based on the area under the curve (AUC) metric. Model calibrations were assessed using Brier, Spiegelhalter’s z-test and its accompanying p-value.

RESULTS: There was a significant difference in prevalence of LDD between the development and temporal validation cohorts (478 [32.3%] vs 69 [10.1%]; p < 0.001). The following variables were associated with LDD in decreasing order: pre-enrolment diarrhea days (55.1%), modified Vesikari score(18.2%), age group (10.7%), vomit days (8.8%), respiratory rate (6.5%), vomiting (6.4%), vomit frequency (6.2%), rotavirus vaccination (6.1%), skin pinch (2.4%) and stool frequency (2.4%). While all models showed good prediction capability, the random forest model achieved the best performance (AUC [95% Confidence Interval]: 83.0 [78.6-87.5] and 71.0 [62.5-79.4]) on the development and temporal validation datasets, respectively. While the random forest model showed slight deviations from perfect calibration, these deviations were not statistically significant (Brier score = 0.17, Spiegelhalter p-value = 0.219).

CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests ML derived algorithms could be used to rapidly identify children at increased risk of LDD. Integrating ML derived models into clinical decision-making may allow clinicians to target these children with closer observation and enhanced management.

PMID:39815316 | DOI:10.1186/s12911-025-02855-6

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Effect of high-quality nursing interventions on the quality of life and cardiac index in acute coronary syndrome patients treated with drug-eluting stents: a randomized trial study

BMC Nurs. 2025 Jan 15;24(1):51. doi: 10.1186/s12912-025-02710-z.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Nursing care is important and necessary for Acute Coronary Syndrome patients who have undergone angiography and stenting, to minimize complications. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of High-Quality Nursing Interventions on the quality of life and cardiac index of Acute Coronary Syndrome patients, treated with drug-eluting stents.

METHODS: In this randomized trial, 70 patients of the cardiac intensive care units in one of Jahrom university of medical sciences hospitals (Iran) were selected from July 2023 to October 2023 by the available method, and randomly allocated (stochastic assignment) to two intervention (High-Quality Nursing Interventions) and control groups (routine nursing care). Quality of life and Cardiac Index were measured by cardiac index calculation formula and the McNew Cardiac Quality Questionnaire, respectively. Data were analysed using SPSS version 19 software, Mann‒Whitney, chi‒square and Wilcoxon tests, with a significance level at a p < .05.

RESULTS: A statistically significant difference demonstrated between the mean of the quality of life and cardiac index in the intervention group(p < .05).

CONCLUSIONS: High-Quality Nursing Interventions improved quality of life and cardiac index of Acute Coronary Syndrome patients, treated with drug-eluting stents. Therefore, it is recommended to use this nursing approach in special cardiac care units.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: IRCT79432(2024.10.08), “Retrospectively registered”.

PMID:39815311 | DOI:10.1186/s12912-025-02710-z

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Location or size? A finite element analysis study of necrotic lesion impact on femoral head collapse

J Orthop Surg Res. 2025 Jan 15;20(1):48. doi: 10.1186/s13018-025-05453-4.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The location and size of necrotic lesions are important factors for collapse, The preserved angles (PAs) are divided into anterior preserved angle (APA) and lateral preserved angle (LPA), which could accurately measure the location of necrosis lesion. We used them to evaluate the effect of the location and size of necrotic lesions on collapse by finite element analysis, to offer a framework for evaluating the prognosis of osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH) in clinical settings.

METHODS: 3 left hip models were constructed based on CT data. Within each hip model, three necrosis lesion models were modeled, with necrotic tissue volumes of 30%, 50%, and 70% repectively. The ONFH models with LPA of 45.5°, 50.5°, 55.5°, 60.5°, 65.5°, 70.5°, and 75.5° when APA was 60.5°, and ONFH models with APAs of 45.5°, 50.5°, 55.5°, 60.5°, 65.5°, 70.5°, and 75.5° when LPA was 60.5° were Constructed. The maximum von Mises stess of the femoral head and necrotic lesion, as well as the femoral head displacement, were calculated to evaluate the biomechanical effects of these models.

RESULTS: (1) In models with the same necrotic volume, when APA was 60.5°, the indexes of the LPA < 60.5° models were significantly higher than those of the LPA ≥ 60.5° models (P < 0.05); the differences of the indexes among the LPA ≥ 60.5° models were not statistically significant (P > 0.05). (2) When LPA was 60.5°, the indexes of models with APA < 60.5 ° and APA ≥ 60.5 ° show the same trend as the former. (3) In the models with the same PAs, there was no statistically significant difference in the indexes (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION: The location of the necrotic lesion exerts a greater impact on femoral head collapse compared with the size of the lesion. The location of the necrosis may deserve more consideration when assessing the risk of collapse in patients with early onset ONFH.

PMID:39815308 | DOI:10.1186/s13018-025-05453-4

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Mediterranean diet and dementia: MRI marker evidence from meta-analysis

Eur J Med Res. 2025 Jan 16;30(1):32. doi: 10.1186/s40001-025-02276-1.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Dementia is a growing public health concern with limited effective treatments. Diet may be a modifiable factor that significantly impacts brain health. Mediterranean diet (MeDi) has been suggested to be associated with brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) markers related to dementia, but the existing evidence is inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to quantify the association between MeDi and dementia-related MRI markers.

METHODS: A systematic search was conducted on PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science up to September 2024. Two reviewers worked in parallel to select studies and extract data. We considered epidemiologic studies that reported beta coefficients (β) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for MRI markers related to MeDi. Separate meta-analyses were performed for cross-sectional and longitudinal studies.

RESULTS: A total of 20 relevant studies involving 44,893 individuals were included in the analysis. Thirteen cross-sectional studies included a total of 42,955 participants. A meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies revealed significant associations between MeDi and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) (β = – 0.03, 95% CI = – 0.05- – 0.01, P = 0.02). However, there were no significant associations found between MeDi and total brain volume (TBV) (β = – 0.03, 95% CI = – 0.20-0.13, P = 0.71), gray matter volume (GMV) (β = 0.26, 95% CI = – 0.19-0.71, P = 0.26), white matter volume (WMV) (β = – 0.09, 95% CI = – 0.40-0.22, P = 0.58), or hippocampal volume (HCV) (β = – 1.02, 95% CI = – 7.74-9.79, P = 0.82). In the longitudinal analysis, seven prospective studies with an average follow-up period ranging from 1.5 to 9 years and involving 1,938 participants. The combined effect size of MeDi showed no significant association with TBV or GMV.

CONCLUSION: Adherence to MeDi may be associated with reduced WMH in older adults. This suggests that MeDi may affect brain health and highlights the need for further research into its role as a modifiable lifestyle factor that might potentially modify the risk of dementia.

PMID:39815306 | DOI:10.1186/s40001-025-02276-1

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Financial crisis and its association with parental stress and children’s mental health in Lebanon

BMC Public Health. 2025 Jan 14;25(1):156. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-21398-z.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Lebanon has experienced a series of devastating crises that continue to have significant adverse effects on the mental health of parents and their children, especially those who are unemployed, burdened with debt or financial difficulties, and have pre-existing mental health conditions. Accordingly, this study aimed to assess the effect of financial insecurities on parents in Lebanon amid the multiple crises, and the impact of parents’ mental health on their children’s emotional and behavioral wellbeing.

METHODS: A cross-sectional study including 589 parents in Lebanon was performed using convenience sampling of parents of any gender with children aged 4 to 18 from the five Lebanese governorates. The study collected the sociodemographic data of the participants and incorporated supplementary measures such as the Parental Stress Scale (PSS), Pediatric Symptom Checklist (PSC), and the InCharge Financial Distress/Financial Well-Being (IFDFW) scale. Statistical tests included bivariate analysis, ANOVA test, linear regression, and mediation analyses.

RESULTS: A total of 589 parents, primarily mothers, participated in this study. Most children were males in elementary school. Bivariate analyses revealed that parents with non-Lebanese nationality, primary education, employment, or children in technical schools reported significantly higher PSS and PSC scores. Negative correlations were observed between the IFDFW scale and both PSS (r=-0.200, p < 0.001) and PSC scores (r=-0.086, p = 0.038), indicating lower stress and symptoms with improved financial well-being. Multivariable analysis showed that higher PSC scores, age, complementary education, and Lebanese nationality were associated with increased parental stress, while unemployment, lower age, and higher IFDFW were associated with reduced stress. Similarly, higher PSC scores were linked to increased parental stress, age, non-Lebanese nationality, and IFDFW, whereas university education, higher GPA, and residence outside Beirut/Mount Lebanon were associated with reduced PSC scores. Mediation analysis indicated that parental stress fully mediated the relationship between IFDFW and PSC scores, underscoring the impact of financial well-being on a child’s psychological symptoms via parental stress.

CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed significant financial distress and low financial well-being among participants amid Lebanon’s economic crisis, with a notable mediated association between financial well-being, parental stress, and child mental health symptoms. Parental stress was heightened among those with lower education levels, non-Lebanese nationality, and employment in low-wage jobs, with children from these families exhibiting elevated mental health symptoms. Additionally, regional factors and socioeconomic status played a role, as children in urbanized areas and technical schools reported higher distress. Targeted interventions are urgently recommended to alleviate financial and emotional burdens on families and ensure improved mental well-being for both parents and children.

PMID:39815287 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-025-21398-z

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Assessing the financial burden of multimorbidity among patients aged 30 and above in India

BMC Health Serv Res. 2025 Jan 15;25(1):86. doi: 10.1186/s12913-025-12206-w.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is associated with significant out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPE) and catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), especially in low- and middle-income countries like India. Despite this, there is limited research on the financial burden of multimorbidity in outpatient and inpatient care, and cross-state comparisons of CHE are underexplored.

METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using nationally representative data from the National Sample Survey 75th Round ‘Social Consumption in India: Health (2017-18)’, focusing on patients aged 30 and above in outpatient and inpatient care in India. We assessed multimorbidity prevalence, OOPE, CHE incidence, and CHE intensity. Statistical models, including linear, log-linear, and logistic regressions, were used to examine the financial risk, with a focus on non-communicable diseases (NCDs), healthcare facility choice, and socioeconomic status and Epidemiological Transition Levels (ETLs).

RESULTS: Multimorbidity prevalence in outpatient care (6.1%) was six times higher than in inpatient care (1.1%). It was most prevalent among older adults, higher MPCE quintiles, urban patients, and those with NCDs. Multimorbidity was associated with higher OOPE, particularly in the rich quintile, patients seeking care from private providers, low ETL states, and rural areas. CHE incidence was highest in low ETL states, private healthcare users, poorest quintile, males, and patients aged 70 + years. CHE intensity, measured by mean positive overshoot, was greatest among the poorest quintile, low ETL states, rural, and male patients. Log-linear and logistic regressions indicated that multimorbidity patients with NCDs, those seeking private care, and those in low ETL states had higher OOPE and CHE risk. The poorest rural multimorbidity patients had the greatest likelihood of experiencing CHE. Furthermore, CHE intensity was significantly elevated among multimorbidity patients with NCDs (95% CI: 19.29-45.79), patients seeking care in private, poorest, and from low ETL states (95% CI: 7.36-35.79).

CONCLUSIONS: The high financial burden of OOPE and CHE among multimorbidity patients, particularly those with NCDs, highlight the urgent need for comprehensive health policies that address financial risk at the primary care level. To alleviate the financial burden among multimorbidity patients, especially in low-resource settings, it is crucial to expand public healthcare coverage, incorporate outpatient care into financial protection schemes, advocate for integrated care models and preventive strategies, establish standardized treatment protocols for reducing unnecessary medications linked to polypharmacy, and leverage the support of digital health technologies.

PMID:39815285 | DOI:10.1186/s12913-025-12206-w

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Opioid-related harms and experiences of care among people in justice settings in New South Wales, Australia: evidence from the National Ambulance Surveillance System

Harm Reduct J. 2025 Jan 15;22(1):8. doi: 10.1186/s12954-025-01154-7.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: People in justice settings experience higher rates of psychiatric morbidity, including alcohol and drug use disorders, compared with the general population. However, our understanding of opioid-related harms in justice settings is limited. This study used ambulance data to examine opioid-related harms and experiences of care in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, during periods of incarceration or detention.

METHODS: This mixed-methods study used data from the National Ambulance Surveillance System (NASS) for patients aged 18 and older with an opioid-related ambulance attendance between December 2020 and April 2023. People in justice settings were identified using ambulance billing codes and manual review of paramedic case notes. Descriptive statistics described the patterns and modalities of opioid-related harms in justice settings, and a qualitative thematic analysis of paramedic case notes was used to contextualise findings. Results Over the study period, 328 opioid-related ambulance attendances for people in justice settings were identified (51% heroin; 41% opioid agonist therapy (OAT) medication). Symptoms of opioid withdrawal were noted in 35% of attendances, most commonly for heroin (51%) and withdrawal from OAT medications (48%). Three interconnected themes were identified using qualitative analysis: trust and mistrust in justice settings, systemic barriers to providing OAT, and other harm reduction strategies, and experiences of withdrawal in justice settings.

CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated the utility of ambulance data in identifying opioid-related harms for people in justice settings in NSW. Qualitative findings highlight current barriers to effective opioid care in justice settings and identify opportunities for intervention, including targeted harm reduction programs, as well as policies that promote continuity of care particularly during transitions in and out of justice settings.

PMID:39815283 | DOI:10.1186/s12954-025-01154-7

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The association between maternal-fetal attachment and adherence to health behaviors among pregnant women

BMC Res Notes. 2025 Jan 15;18(1):16. doi: 10.1186/s13104-024-07071-5.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The attachment a mother feels for her fetus intensifies her duty to care for it, leading to a heightened desire to engage in behaviors that promote health. This research explored the association between maternal-fetal attachment (MFA) and adherence to health-related behaviors among pregnant women.

METHODS: This cross-sectional study focused on 220 pregnant women in Jahrom City, and was conducted using a multi-stage random sampling strategy. The data were collected using the Maternal-Fetal Attachment Scale paired with a questionnaire that addressed health behaviors relevant to pregnancy. The data were analyzed using SPSS18 software, employing linear regression and the Pearson correlation test. A p-value of less than 0.05 was deemed significant.

RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 28.06 ± 5.12 years. The adherence to health behaviors in pregnant women yielded a mean score of 174.51 ± 20.20. Pearson’s correlation test revealed a significant statistical association between MFA and adherence to health behaviors (r = 0.54, p < 0.001). The linear regression analysis showed that the dimensions of interaction with the fetus (β = 0.19) and the act of surrendering to the fetus (β = 0.27) could explain 35% of the variance in adherence to health behaviors (F = 14.12, R2 = 0.35, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: This study highlights a significant association between MFA and adherence to health behaviors throughout pregnancy. Supportive measures may strengthen MFA, promoting self-care practices and behaviors, ultimately resulting in improved health for both the mother and her fetus.

PMID:39815281 | DOI:10.1186/s13104-024-07071-5

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The clinical value and most informative threshold of polygenic risk score in the Quebec City Case-Control Asthma Cohort

BMC Pulm Med. 2025 Jan 15;25(1):21. doi: 10.1186/s12890-025-03486-3.

ABSTRACT

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified genetic variants robustly associated with asthma. A potential near-term clinical application is to calculate polygenic risk score (PRS) to improve disease risk prediction. The value of PRS, as part of numerous multi-source variables used to define asthma, remains unclear. This study aims to evaluate PRS and define most informative thresholds in relation to conventional clinical and physiological criteria of asthma using a multivariate statistical method. Clinical and genome-wide genotyping data were obtained from the Quebec City Case-Control Asthma Cohort (QCCCAC), which is an independent cohort from previous GWAS. PRS was derived using LDpred2 and integrated with other asthma phenotypes by means of Principal Component Analysis with Optimal Scaling (PCAOS). PRS was considered using ‘ordinal level of scaling’ to account for non-linear information. In two dimensional PCAOS space, the first component delineated individuals with and without asthma, whereas the severity of asthma was discerned on the second component. The positioning of high vs. low PRS in this space matched the presence and absence of airway hyperresponsiveness, showing that PRS delineated cases and controls at the same extent as a positive bronchial challenge test. The top 10% and the bottom 5% of the PRS were the most informative thresholds to define individuals at high and low genetic risk of asthma in this cohort. PRS used in a multivariate method offers a decision-making space similar to hyperresponsiveness in this cohort and highlights the most informative and asymmetrical thresholds to define high and low genetic risk of asthma.

PMID:39815278 | DOI:10.1186/s12890-025-03486-3

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Impact of antiviral prophylaxis on EBV viremia and posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorders in solid organ transplant recipients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Virol J. 2025 Jan 15;22(1):11. doi: 10.1186/s12985-025-02623-y.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Organ transplant recipients face a substantial risk of developing posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLD). In over 90% of cases with B-cell PTLD following solid organ transplantation, the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) genome is promptly identified, usually within the initial year. A continuing discussion revolves around the efficacy of antiviral prophylaxis in mitigating the incidence of PTLD in solid organ transplant (SOT) patients. This study aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate this issue.

METHOD: A comprehensive search was conducted up to December 31, 2023, in databases including PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for retrospective and prospective studies comparing antiviral prophylaxis effects on EVB viremia and PTLD incidence in SOT recipients. Fixed or random effect models were applied based on the heterogeneity assessed via the I2 statistic, using Stata 16.0 software for data analysis.

RESULTS: In total, 22 eligible studies involving 13,498 patients were analyzed. Antiviral prophylaxis was associated with a significant reduction in EBV viremia incidence in SOT recipients, as demonstrated in 10 studies (relative risk (RR) 0.69, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.88). The rate of PTLD was significantly lower among those who received antiviral prophylaxis compared to those who did not, as reported in 18 studies (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.94). No significant difference was observed in the subgroup of high-risk recipients based on EBV serology (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.78). Additionally, a notable reduction in PTLD incidence was seen in the pediatric subgroup (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.79) using antiviral prophylaxis, while no significant differences were observed in the subgroup of adults (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.21). Administration of antiviral prophylaxis can significantly reduce the incidence of PTLD among kidney (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.87) and heart transplant patients (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.96). PTLD incidence was significantly reduced among recipients of T-cell depletion or steroid-based immunosuppression using antiviral prophylaxis (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.74 and RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.41-0.73, respectively).

CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis revealed that administering antiviral prophylaxis to patients after solid organ transplantation reduces PTLD and EBV viremia occurrences, especially among pediatric recipients, individuals undergoing kidney or heart transplantation, and those receiving high-intensity immunosuppression regimens. Post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLD) and other EBV syndromes are among the most serious complications following solid organ transplantation (SOT), primarily due to the necessity for prolonged immunosuppressive therapy. Among the strategies for preventing EBV-related complications, the use of antiviral prophylaxis is a subject of ongoing debate. This systematic review and meta-analysis found that antiviral prophylaxis significantly reduced EBV viremia incidence (risk ratio (RR) 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54 to 0.88) compared to those without prophylaxis. In the sub-analysis related to high-risk EBV serologically mismatched SOT recipients (EBV D+/R-), the result did not show a significant difference in terms of PTLD incidence (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.78). Antiviral prophylaxis significantly impacted the occurrence of PTLD events among pediatric SOT patients (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.79), but not among adult patients (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.21). Antiviral prophylaxis significantly impacted the occurrence of PTLD events among kidney/simultaneous pancreas and kidney (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.87) and heart (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.96) transplant patients but not liver (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.08) transplant recipients.

PMID:39815274 | DOI:10.1186/s12985-025-02623-y