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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A broad assessment of rotavirus vaccine safety in infants in Korea: Insights from a data-driven signal detection approach

Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2025 Dec;21(1):2465161. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2025.2465161. Epub 2025 Feb 12.

ABSTRACT

In light of the widespread use of rotavirus vaccines, there is a pressing need to perform thorough, large-scale surveillance to actively monitor safety. This study aimed to identify potential adverse events following rotavirus vaccination in infants. Using a nationwide linked database of the national immunization registry and health insurance claims data, we identified infants vaccinated with the first dose of rotavirus vaccine between January 2016 and October 2022. The self-controlled tree-temporal scan statistics method analyzed all incident diagnoses recorded within 56 days post-vaccination and evaluated all temporal risk windows. Among 1,720,778 rotavirus vaccine recipients 64,752 infants contributed to the analysis, yielding 72,970 incident diagnoses. Of these, 28 clusters were categorized as known adverse drug reactions (ADRs), including infection following immunization (Days 1-2, p<.001), viral infection (Days 1-5, p<.001), urticaria and erythema (Days 3-9, p<.001), acute upper respiratory infections (Days 28-42, p<.001), and pneumonia (Days 9-19 or 28-42, p<.001). Seventeen clusters were classified as ADR-related events, such as the ones clinically related to ADR or lower-level diagnostic codes of ADR. The remaining 26 clusters were classified as signals, including sepsis (Days 1-20, p<.001), meningitis (Days 1-23, p<.001), liver disease (Days 4-11, p<.001), and tubulo-interstitial nephritis (Days 11-38, p<.001). A cluster of intussusceptions was only found in monovalent vaccine-stratified analysis (Days 5-8, p = 0.005). This study confirmed known ADRs following rotavirus vaccination, while identifying potential safety signals requiring further investigation. These findings emphasize the importance of active vaccine surveillance and underscore the need for epidemiological studies with validated outcome definitions to confirm causal relationships between rotavirus vaccination and the detected outcomes.

PMID:39936376 | DOI:10.1080/21645515.2025.2465161

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Characteristics and longitudinal clinical outcomes of people with type 2 diabetes in regional areas accessing a tertiary telehealth service: A retrospective cohort study

J Telemed Telecare. 2025 Feb 12:1357633X251314290. doi: 10.1177/1357633X251314290. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is rising in Australia, particularly in regional areas where access to specialist care is limited. To address this, Queensland Health (Queensland, Australia) established a telehealth network, including the Diabetes Telehealth Service (DTS) at the Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH). The service facilitates video consultations between city-based endocrinologists and regional health centres, with local clinicians providing in-person support. While telehealth interventions have been evaluated in short-term studies, there is a need for longitudinal data to assess their long-term effectiveness in routine diabetes care. This study aims to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes accessing care from the PAH DTS.

METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from the PAH DTS to follow adults with type 2 diabetes over 24 months. Data was collected as part of routine care and analysed to assess changes in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and cardiovascular risk factors. Statistical analyses included descriptive analysis, t-tests, Chi-squared tests, and fixed effects regression models.

RESULTS: The study included 374 patients with type 2 diabetes, with a mean age of 57.9 years and a mean duration of diabetes at enrolment of 11.6 years. Baseline HbA1c levels were available for 86% of the patients, with a median HbA1c of 8.4%. The median number of appointments in the 24-month period was 2, and the average time between a person’s first and last visit was 72 weeks. The average change in HbA1c between these visits was -0.8%. Statistically significant changes were also seen in cholesterol levels, weight, body mass index, and diastolic blood pressure. A linear regression analysis revealed that the greatest decrease in HbA1c levels occurred within the first 3 months since the initial clinic visit. HbA1c levels continued to decrease over the 24-month follow-up period, but the rate of decrease slowed after the first 3 months.

CONCLUSION: This study provides valuable insights into the telehealth model of care for tertiary diabetes in regional, rural, and remote settings. It demonstrates the effectiveness of this model in improving glycaemic control, particularly in the initial months, while also highlighting areas for improvement.

PMID:39936370 | DOI:10.1177/1357633X251314290

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Lip Filler Versus “Lip Flip”: Longitudinal Public Interest and a Brief Review of Literature

J Cosmet Dermatol. 2025 Feb;24(2):e70048. doi: 10.1111/jocd.70048.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The lip augmentation market is projected to reach a value of 11.6 billion USD by 2030. Hyaluronic acid (HA) fillers are the most common type due to biocompatibility and reversibility. However, there has been an increase in alternative procedures, such as the “lip flip,” involving the injection of botulinum neurotoxin A (BoNT-A) into the superior orbicularis oris muscle.

AIMS: The purpose of this study is to review the current literature and evaluate the general public interest in dermal lip fillers compared to supralabial BoNT-A injections over the past decade.

METHODS: The Google Trends database was used to collect relative monthly search volume for the terms “lip filler” and “lip flip” over a decade-long period (January 1, 2014-January 1, 2024). Google Trends data is automatically normalized with a value of 100 indicating maximal search volume and 1 indicating minimal search volume.

RESULTS: Search volume for lip filler and lip flip increased similarly from 2014 to 2024. Lip filler was consistently more searched and had an average 75% increase in relative search volume per month. Meanwhile, “lip flip” had, on average, a 33% increase in search volume per month.

CONCLUSIONS: Although lip filler was more frequently inquired about than “lip flip,” the latter increased in popularity over time, reaffirming its popularity as a potential alternative to lip filler. Superior obicularis oris BoNT-A injections are rising in popularity and may be a valuable option for patients seeking cosmesis with hesitation toward dermal fillers.

PMID:39936357 | DOI:10.1111/jocd.70048

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Impact of posttraumatic stress disorder and comorbid psychiatric conditions on suicide reattempts

Eur J Psychotraumatol. 2025 Dec;16(1):2461435. doi: 10.1080/20008066.2025.2461435. Epub 2025 Feb 12.

ABSTRACT

Background: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prevalent psychiatric condition that significantly increases the risk of suicide.Objective: This study aimed to assess PTSD and its co-occurring conditions among individuals who attempted suicide and to evaluate the relationship between these disorders and suicide reattempts within six months.Method: This prospective cohort study included 2,441 individuals from the French Vigilans programme who attempted suicide between 2015 and 2020. Data on sociodemographic characteristics and suicide attempt (SA) history were collected at baseline, and lifetime psychiatric conditions were assessed via the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) during the six-month follow-up telephone interview. Multivariate logistic and linear regression models were used to measure the impact of PTSD and its comorbidities on suicide reattempts within six months, controlling for sex, age, and prior SAs.Results: In total, 11.8% of the individuals (287/2,441) in the cohort were diagnosed with PTSD. Among these, 71.1% (204/287) had major depressive disorder, 36.2% (104/287) had alcohol use disorder, and 35.9% (103/287) had panic disorder. Within six months, we observed higher rates of suicide reattempt in those with PTSD (p < .01; OR 1.71 95% CI 1.14-2.55), regardless of comorbidities. Even higher rates were found in those with PTSD comorbid with panic disorder (p = .02 OR 1.95 95% CI 1.12-3.39) or substance use disorder (p = .01 OR 2.91 95% CI 1.28-6.62). Additionally, PTSD comorbid with panic disorder (p = .02, β = .10) or eating disorders (p = .04, β = .12) was associated with a greater number of suicide reattempts.Conclusion: Approximately one in ten SA survivors experienced PTSD. Individuals with PTSD and comorbid conditions, such as panic disorder, substance use disorder, and eating disorders, are two to three times more likely to reattempt suicide within six months. Despite ongoing preventive efforts, rates of reattempt remain high, highlighting the urgent need for continuous clinical monitoring and personalized therapeutic interventions.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03134885.

PMID:39936356 | DOI:10.1080/20008066.2025.2461435

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Using Bayesian evidence synthesis to quantify uncertainty in population trends in smoking behaviour

Stat Methods Med Res. 2025 Feb 12:9622802241310326. doi: 10.1177/09622802241310326. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Simulation models of smoking behaviour provide vital forecasts of exposure to inform policy targets, estimates of the burden of disease, and impacts of tobacco control interventions. A key element of useful model-based forecasts is a clear picture of uncertainty due to the data used to inform the model, however, assessment of this parameter uncertainty is incomplete in almost all tobacco control models. As a remedy, we demonstrate a Bayesian approach to model calibration that quantifies parameter uncertainty. With a model calibrated to Australian data, we observed that the smoking cessation rate in Australia has increased with calendar year since the late 20th century, and in 2016 people who smoked would quit at a rate of 4.7 quit-events per 100 person-years (90% equal-tailed interval (ETI): 4.5-4.9). We found that those who quit smoking before age 30 years switched to reporting that they never smoked at a rate of approximately 2% annually (90% ETI: 1.9-2.2%). The Bayesian approach demonstrated here can be used as a blueprint to model other population behaviours that are challenging to measure directly, and to provide a clearer picture of uncertainty to decision-makers.

PMID:39936347 | DOI:10.1177/09622802241310326

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Bayesian mixture models for phylogenetic source attribution from consensus sequences and time since infection estimates

Stat Methods Med Res. 2025 Feb 12:9622802241309750. doi: 10.1177/09622802241309750. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

In stopping the spread of infectious diseases, pathogen genomic data can be used to reconstruct transmission events and characterize population-level sources of infection. Most approaches for identifying transmission pairs do not account for the time passing since the divergence of pathogen variants in individuals, which is problematic in viruses with high within-host evolutionary rates. This prompted us to consider possible transmission pairs in terms of phylogenetic data and additional estimates of time since infection derived from clinical biomarkers. We develop Bayesian mixture models with an evolutionary clock as a signal component and additional mixed effects or covariate random functions describing the mixing weights to classify potential pairs into likely and unlikely transmission pairs. We demonstrate that although sources cannot be identified at the individual level with certainty, even with the additional data on time elapsed, inferences into the population-level sources of transmission are possible, and more accurate than using only phylogenetic data without time since infection estimates. We apply the proposed approach to estimate age-specific sources of HIV infection in Amsterdam tranamission networks among men who have sex with men between 2010 and 2021. This study demonstrates that infection time estimates provide informative data to characterize transmission sources, and shows how phylogenetic source attribution can then be done with multi-dimensional mixture models.

PMID:39936344 | DOI:10.1177/09622802241309750

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Long-term Dagum-power variance function frailty regression model: Application in health studies

Stat Methods Med Res. 2025 Feb 12:9622802241304113. doi: 10.1177/09622802241304113. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Survival models with cure fractions, known as long-term survival models, are widely used in epidemiology to account for both immune and susceptible patients regarding a failure event. In such studies, it is also necessary to estimate unobservable heterogeneity caused by unmeasured prognostic factors. Moreover, the hazard function may exhibit a non-monotonic shape, specifically, an unimodal hazard function. In this article, we propose a long-term survival model based on a defective version of the Dagum distribution, incorporating a power variance function frailty term to account for unobservable heterogeneity. This model accommodates survival data with cure fractions and non-monotonic hazard functions. The distribution is reparameterized in terms of the cure fraction, with covariates linked via a logit link, allowing for direct interpretation of covariate effects on the cure fraction-an uncommon feature in defective approaches. We present maximum likelihood estimation for model parameters, assess performance through Monte Carlo simulations, and illustrate the model’s applicability using two health-related datasets: severe COVID-19 in pregnant and postpartum women and patients with malignant skin neoplasms.

PMID:39936340 | DOI:10.1177/09622802241304113

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Factors Increasing the Likelihood of Postoperative Hematomas Following Thyroid Surgery

Head Neck. 2025 Feb 12. doi: 10.1002/hed.28096. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Neck hematoma following thyroid surgery is a potentially life-threatening complication.

METHODS: This retrospective case-control study reviewed neck hematoma reoperations following thyroid surgery (2009-2024), using 3:1 matching. Univariable analysis identified hematoma and delayed onset (≥ 6 h) risk factors, with odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS: Among 5502 surgeries, the hematoma incidence was 0.55% (n = 30). The mean age was 54 and the female-to-male ratio was 7:3. Key risk factors included pre-induction blood pressure > 160 mmHg (OR = 3.04 [95% CI = 1.25-7.39], p = 0.014) and limited blood pressure change postmedication (OR = 6.25 [95% CI = 1.03-38.08], p = 0.047). The hematoma group had higher rates of smoking, hypertension, diabetes, Graves’ disease, and prior thyroid surgery, and, in delayed hematoma cases, larger nodules, total thyroidectomy, and central neck dissection, though not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION: Patients with poorly controlled blood pressure may not be candidates for outpatient thyroidectomy.

PMID:39936339 | DOI:10.1002/hed.28096

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Time Allocation to Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviour and Its Impact on Sarcopenia Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

J Adv Nurs. 2025 Feb 12. doi: 10.1111/jan.16781. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIM: To evaluate the relationship between time spent in sedentary behaviour and physical activity and sarcopenia in older adults, and to analyse the effect of reallocating time between different intensities of activities on sarcopenia.

DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS: Following PRISMA guidelines, data were synthesised using a random-effects model, with heterogeneity assessed via Cochran’s Q test and the I2 statistic. Study quality was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale by two independent reviewers.

DATA SOURCES: A comprehensive search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane databases for studies published up to November 5, 2024, with no language or date restrictions. Relevant reference lists were also manually screened.

RESULTS: The present review included six studies involving 9914 older adults. Three studies suggested that older adults without sarcopenia spent more time performing light physical activities (SMD: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.24-0.45) and moderate to vigorous physical activity (SMD: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.49-0.74) and had less sedentary behaviour (SMD: -0.34; 95% CI: -0.51 to -0.16) than did older adults with sarcopenia. Replacing sedentary behaviour with an equivalent amount of moderate to vigorous physical activity (10, 30, or 60 min) each day can reduce the risk of sarcopenia, with 30 min showing the best preventive effect. However, research findings on the relationship between substituting sedentary behaviour time with light physical activities and sarcopenia are inconsistent.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROFESSION: Encouraging older adults to engage in moderate to vigorous physical activity, even in short bouts of 10 min, can significantly reduce the risk of sarcopenia. Healthcare professionals should tailor activity recommendations to individual preferences and physical conditions to promote overall health and reduce sedentary behaviour.

PATIENT AND PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: No Patient or Public Contribution.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: CRD42023416166.

PMID:39936334 | DOI:10.1111/jan.16781

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Indirect Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Healthcare Contacts, Quality of Care, and Social Disparities Across Essential Healthcare Domains

Int J Qual Health Care. 2025 Feb 12:mzaf013. doi: 10.1093/intqhc/mzaf013. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Background The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected global healthcare systems, revealing their resilience to crises. Despite this, national-level research on its impact across key healthcare domains – such as acute and chronic disease management, cancer screening and care, mental health, and palliative care – is scarce. This study examines pandemic’s impact on contacts, quality of care, and social disparity in these healthcare domains to guide better preparedness for future health emergencies. Methods The study utilised data from Danish national clinical quality registries, covering January 2015 to June 2022, to create a nationwide cohort for comparing healthcare metrics across the pandemic’s phases and the pre-pandemic period. Healthcare contacts were assessed through descriptive analyses, whilst the quality of care and social disparities were analysed using multivariable regression models, providing estimated prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark led to community and healthcare lockdowns, which were associated with fewer hospital contacts and reduced participation in national cancer screening programs. However, a gradual recovery towards pre-pandemic levels was found, with the exceptions of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) contacts and colorectal cancer incidence. Overall, the quality of care across various healthcare domains in Denmark remained largely unchanged or improved slightly during the pandemic. However, social disparities in contacts were increased across all examined healthcare domains, with patients who were immigrants, living alone, had limited educational level or low income experiencing reduced contact compared to the pre-pandemic period. Conclusions Overall, the Danish healthcare system appeared to be resilient and largely unaffected throughout the pandemic, and the quality of care in several healthcare domains remained high. Nevertheless, the increasing social disparities in healthcare contacts during the pandemic demands attention. In preparing for future health crises, it is important to address and mitigate potential social inequalities, focusing on achieving equity in healthcare.

PMID:39936327 | DOI:10.1093/intqhc/mzaf013