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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Estimating Small Area Statistics and Developing a Novel Mapping Tool to Display Them Using a User-Centered Design Process

JCO Clin Cancer Inform. 2026 Apr;10(2):e2500139. doi: 10.1200/CCI-25-00139. Epub 2026 Jun 1.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Cancer registries are often asked to present cancer data for small geographic areas to inform and facilitate targeted interventions and prevention programs. However, it is challenging to compute and visualize reliable cancer estimates for areas with small case counts and populations to support cancer control planning.

METHODS: Leveraging a user-centered design process, we developed a visual analytics platform and interactive graphics to display modeled cancer risk estimates for small areas. Development of our visual analytics platform was informed by cancer registry and public health professionals through focus groups and surveys. The reliable cancer risk estimates for small areas that we displayed on this platform were created using a Bayesian hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighboring areas and over time to produce cancer estimates for small areas.

RESULTS: The Cancer Analytics and Maps for Small Areas tool (CAMSA) provided age-adjusted cancer incidence and mortality rates and risk probabilities for eight cancers at the county and ZIP-code tabulation area levels. It allowed the user to identify areas of high cancer incidence, including among subgroups defined by sex and race/ethnicity. Potential end users were enthusiastic about the opportunity to implement CAMSA within their practice, emphasizing the tool’s potential for increased collaborative opportunities at local and state levels. Suggestions for improvement included adding map overlays such as additional cancer risk variables and incorporating functionalities such as exportable data tables.

CONCLUSION: CAMSA presented cancer rate and risk estimates for small geographic areas where they may have previously been suppressed. Through our user-centered design process, we developed statistical models and data visualizations to support the needs of an array of potential end users.

PMID:42224633 | DOI:10.1200/CCI-25-00139

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Remote behaviour change service for inactive adults with lung disease: A non-randomised controlled study

Chron Respir Dis. 2026 Jan-Dec;23:14799731261453571. doi: 10.1177/14799731261453571. Epub 2026 Jun 1.

ABSTRACT

ObjectivesTo determine whether a remote behaviour change service (Active Steps), delivered by a UK charity, can increase physical activity over a 12-month period in adults with lung disease.MethodsActive Steps (n=166) consisted of 1:1 telephone health coaching for 12 months alongside printed (e.g. activity diary and chart, information and goal setting booklet) and digital behaviour change strategies (e.g. exercise videos, motivational newsletters, pedometer). A concurrent control group was recruited (n=80) for comparison. Self-reported physical activity (Short Active Lives Survey) and self-reported health (EQ-VAS) were collected at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months. Logistic regression models (adjusted for confounders) were used to analyse the odds of becoming physically active or average changes in physical activity time and EQ-VAS.ResultsPrimary outcome: The number of participants defined as physically active at 12 months was greater with Active Steps (46%) compared to controls (23%) which was statistically significant in an unadjusted (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence intervals (CI)]:2.8 [1.3-6.1], p=0.011) but not adjusted model (OR: 2.2 [0.9-5.4], p=0.097). Secondary outcomes: Compared to controls, Active Steps increased the number of participants physically active at 3 and 6 months, increased the weekly minutes of moderate-vigorous physical activity and improved self-reported health (EQ-VAS) across all timepoints.DiscussionOur findings suggest that charity-led remote behaviour change support is effective in the short-to-medium-term in adults with lung disease, but high participant attrition necessitates caution in interpreting sustained effect estimates at 12 months. Further long-term evaluations are needed to address adherence and sustainability of such services.

PMID:42224628 | DOI:10.1177/14799731261453571

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Climate change, inequality, and childhood stunting in African countries

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2026 Jun 9;123(23):e2518179123. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2518179123. Epub 2026 Jun 1.

ABSTRACT

Childhood stunting is associated with increased mortality, higher risk of chronic disease, impaired cognitive development, lower educational attainment, reduced economic opportunities, and intergenerational transmission of stunting. These risks are likely to intensify as climate change exacerbates key drivers of undernutrition, making it important to understand how rising temperatures affect stunting and the role of socioeconomic inequality in this relationship. We analyze data from 34 African countries from 2004 to 2020 using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), combining observed temperature variability from ERA5 reanalysis with anthropogenic temperature anomalies derived from Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) simulations. Using a mediation framework, we examine pathways linking temperature anomalies, inequality, and child stunting. Results based on observed temperature anomalies show no direct climate effect on stunting or inequality, but a positive and statistically significant association between inequality and stunting. In contrast, anthropogenic temperature anomalies are positively associated with inequality and stunting, with a 1 °C increase linked to a 3.45% rise in child stunting (SE = 1.52, P = 0.023), with no evidence of mediation through inequality. Notably, we find a consistent positive association between inequality and stunting across specifications. These findings suggest that reducing inequality, together with investments in education, sanitation, and household resilience, could substantially lower stunting rates and protect child health in a warming world.

PMID:42224608 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2518179123

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Photon-correlation-enhanced capacity in a noisy low-photon-rate PPM photon-counting channel

Opt Lett. 2026 Jun 1;51(11):3253-3256. doi: 10.1364/OL.592295.

ABSTRACT

This work investigates the enhancement of channel capacity in photon-starved deep-space optical links by leveraging inter-photon correlations. We analyze an M-ary pulse-position modulation (PPM) photon-counting channel in the presence of Poisson background noise and compare conventional signal sources with recently proposed correlated photonic-dimer sources. In the low-photon-rate regime, the dimer sources in both the Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) and Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BCS) limits yield substantial capacity improvements over conventional sources. Specifically, at the operationally relevant PPM order of M = 128, the increase relative to lasers reaches up to ∼37% (BEC) and ∼94% (BCS), respectively. These results underscore photon-statistics and correlation engineering as a promising degree of freedom for maximizing photon information efficiency under stringent power and transceiver constraints.

PMID:42224570 | DOI:10.1364/OL.592295

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Biological and computational evidence of dinotefuran-DNA interactions: A combined in vitro and in silico study

Toxicol Ind Health. 2026 Jun 1:7482337261453776. doi: 10.1177/07482337261453776. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The potential of the neonicotinoid insecticide dinotefuran to induce oxidative DNA damage was evaluated in human peripheral blood lymphocyte cultures at three concentrations (0.05, 0.15, and 0.30 µg/mL) using the single-cell gel electrophoresis assay (COMET). Its ability to interact with DNA was further examined through molecular docking analysis. The comet assay results revealed statistically significant increases (p < 0.001) in both the genetic damage index (GDI) and the percentage of heavily damaged cells (DCP) at all tested concentrations compared with the negative control. DNA damage within individual cells caused by genotoxic agents can thus be effectively detected using the comet assay, as demonstrated in our study. Additionally, the optimized molecular structure, total energy, molecular orbital energies, molecular electrostatic potential (MEP) maps, and global reactivity parameters of dinotefuran were obtained using the DFT/B3LYP/6-311G(d,p) method. The fully optimized energy was predicted, and geometric parameters were compared with available single-crystal structure data. Computational studies employing density functional theory (DFT) and MEP analyses provided detailed insights into the geometric and electronic characteristics of dinotefuran, suggesting that the compound possesses significant chemical reactivity and potential for biological activity upon interaction with DNA. Molecular docking studies with the B-DNA dodecamer (PDB ID: 1BNA) yielded a minimum binding energy of -6.24 kcal/mol. Dinotefuran was found to form four conventional hydrogen bonds, two carbon-hydrogen bonds, and one π-donor hydrogen bond with DNA, primarily involving guanosine, cytosine, and thymidine bases. These interactions are consistent with the experimental evidence of genetic-oxidative DNA damage, indicating that dinotefuran can establish strong molecular interactions with DNA.

PMID:42224505 | DOI:10.1177/07482337261453776

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Processing speed deficits: A missing link in understanding individual variation in children’s interval timing skills?

Dev Psychol. 2026 Jun 1. doi: 10.1037/dev0002217. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The goal of this study was to explore the possible moderating and mediating roles of processing speed in children’s interval timing performance. Nine- to 11-year-old children (N = 103; 53% male; 67% White, 4% Black, 5% Asian, 3% Hispanic, 9% biracial/mixed identity, 12% unknown) performed behavioral interval timing, executive functioning, and processing speed tasks, along with a movement skills assessment. We found that processing speed moderated the relation between movement skills and interval timing such that poorer movement skills most strongly predicted more variable interval timing in children with very slow processing speed. Processing speed also statistically mediated the relation between poorer executive functions (working memory and inhibitory control) and more variable interval timing. This suggests that children with movement difficulties who also have very slow processing speed may be most at risk for dysfunctions in timing-based movement skills and that slow processing speed may interfere with efficient operation of executive functions involved in interval timing skills. We discuss the possible role that processing speed may play in understanding individual variation in children’s interval timing skills and how combined difficulties in timing skills, motor ability, and processing speed may represent a particularly at-risk profile for children with neurodevelopmental disorders. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).

PMID:42224002 | DOI:10.1037/dev0002217

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Eye Movement Patterns Under Exposure to Spatial Disorientation Illusions During Simulated Flight

Hum Factors. 2026 Jun 1:187208261452147. doi: 10.1177/00187208261452147. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo identify eye movement patterns that are correlated with spatial disorientation (SD) events during flights in a flight simulator that induces SD.BackgroundSpatial Disorientation is one of the main causes for aviation mishaps. It can result from illusions caused by misinterpreted vestibular or visual sensory cues, leading to an incorrect perception of an aircraft’s position, attitude, or motion. SD prevention is of great importance, as there is currently no objective tool to identify its occurrence.MethodEye movements of 45 participants (30 aircrew members, 15 cadets) were recorded using Tobii Pro Glasses 2 in a Gyro-IPT SD flight simulator. Illusions were either vestibular or visual. Gaze metrics such as fixations, saccades (rapid gaze shift between two points), and visits were compared between subjects who experienced SD and those who did not. Statistical analyses were conducted to identify significant differences.ResultsAmong 284 flight profiles, 136 SD occurrences were recorded (48%). During visual illusions the participants who more frequently checked the instrument panel had a higher chance of avoiding SD. In contrast, during vestibular illusions, participants who examined the head-up display (HUD) more frequently had a lower probability of SD occurrence.ConclusionMitigating SD requires distinct eye-movement strategies tailored to the illusion type. Our results suggest that to mitigate visual illusions, there is a need for greater instrument panel focus, whereas to mitigate vestibular illusions, increased HUD engagement is needed, as opposed to the current instructions.ApplicationOur findings may inform training programs to enhance performance in high-risk SD flight profiles. Additionally, results support the potential development of a real-time SD alert system for aircraft, aiming to mitigate or prevent SD-related incidents.

PMID:42223995 | DOI:10.1177/00187208261452147

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Efficacy and Safety of Commercial Systems Versus Custom Procedures for the Nonsurgical Correction of Neonatal Ear Anomalies: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

J Craniofac Surg. 2026 Jun 1. doi: 10.1097/SCS.0000000000012978. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Ear anomalies, common in newborns, affect psychosocial development. While otoplasty carries surgical risks, nonsurgical molding within the first weeks of life effectively corrects many deformities using splints like the EarWell system. However, success is time-sensitive, and technique standardization is lacking. This meta-analysis compares commercial systems and custom procedures, evaluating success rates and complications for different auricular anomalies.

METHODS: The authors searched for relevant articles up to October 2025 from PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Two independent reviewers extracted data from the selected studies, including baseline information, outcomes, success rates, complications, and parental satisfaction metrics. All data analyses were performed using R version 4.3.3.

RESULTS: The authors collected 1208 records after excluding 795 duplicates. Thorough screening resulted in the retrieval of 49 entries eligible for inclusion in our review. Our analysis found high success rates across all methods. The EarWell system achieved 93% success, custom methods 91%, and other commercial systems 88%, with no statistically significant differences (P=0.155). Good-to-excellent outcomes occurred in 95% of cases. EarWell was more effective for deformations (96%) than malformations (82%), while custom methods reached 97% for deformations. Parental satisfaction was high overall (89%) but differed significantly by method (P=0.017), with custom methods at the forefront at 96%, followed by EarWell (88%) and other commercial systems (81%). However, meta-regression showed EarWell was associated with 1.6 times higher parental satisfaction odds (OR: 1.593, P=0.024). Complication rates were 13% for EarWell and other commercial systems, and 8% for custom methods (P=0.567). Longer treatment duration slightly reduced overall success odds (OR: 0.996, P=0.023). Device type and age at intervention did not significantly affect outcomes.

CONCLUSION: Nonsurgical ear molding is safe and effective. Since custom splints match commercial devices in efficacy, low-cost methods are viable alternatives.

PMID:42223983 | DOI:10.1097/SCS.0000000000012978

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Evaluating the Consequences of a Hypertension Management Incentive

JAMA Intern Med. 2026 Jun 1. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2026.1637. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Quality metrics with financial incentives are widely used, but their impact on clinical care and patient health remains challenging to isolate.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of a physician-facing quality metric and financial incentive for hypertension control (blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg) with clinical decisions and health outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This quasi-experimental difference-in-differences study in a large US health system compared changes in outcomes at practices that did vs those that did not adopt the financial incentive before (2021) vs after (2022-2023) adoption. Participants included patients with previously diagnosed hypertension, aged 18 to 85 years, with encounters at eligible primary care practices. Data were analyzed from January 2024 to September 2025.

EXPOSURES: Patient exposure to the financial incentive was determined by which practice delivered their care.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Initial and final systolic blood pressure at the primary care encounter and number of measurements, antihypertensive prescriptions and dose adjustments, and hospitalizations for incident stroke or acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

RESULTS: The study included 334 364 patients with hypertension (mean [SD] age, 64.9 [12.6] years; 53.3% female) and their 770 907 encounters at 103 primary care practices. In January 2022, the hypertension control financial incentive was introduced in physician contracts for 63 of these practices. In the overall population of patients with hypertension, the financial incentive was associated with an increased probability of blood pressure remeasurement (by 1.9 [95% CI, 0.7-3.1] percentage points [pp]; P = .002) with no statistically significant change in hypertension control, medication outcomes, or cardiovascular hospitalizations. For the subgroup of patients with marginally high blood pressure (defined as initial systolic blood pressure of 140-145 mm Hg), the financial incentive was associated with an increased probability (by 4.1 [95% CI, 2.1-6.0] pp; P < .001) that blood pressure was documented as controlled, subsequent to an increased probability of blood pressure remeasurement (by 5.6 [95% CI, 2.9-8.3] pp; P < .001). The probability of an existing antihypertensive medication dose being increased was reduced (-1.1 [95% CI, -2.0 to -3.0] pp; P = .01), and the 3-month risk of hospitalization for stroke or ACS increased (by 0.25 [95% CI, 0.07-0.44] pp; P = .005), with excess risk growing to 0.52 pp (95% CI, 0.17-0.87 pp; P = .008) pp at 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study’s findings suggest that the addition a quality metric and financial incentive to physicians’ contracts in a large health system had little impact on measured outcomes in the overall population of patients with hypertension. For patients with marginally high blood pressure, the incentive was associated with increased documented hypertension control because of selective remeasurement of blood pressure, decreased medication adjustments, and increased cardiovascular hospitalizations.

PMID:42223964 | DOI:10.1001/jamainternmed.2026.1637

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Cost-Effectiveness of Fecal Immunochemical Testing Alone vs Co-Testing With Helicobacter pylori Stool Antigen

JAMA. 2026 Jun 1. doi: 10.1001/jama.2026.6908. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Helicobacter pylori infection is the leading cause of gastric cancer, yet the economic value of population-based screening and eradication remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE: To project the lifetime health benefits and costs of invitation to 1-time H pylori stool antigen testing added to biennial fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening compared with FIT alone.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Lifetime cost-effectiveness analysis conducted using a Markov decision-analytic model to simulate a cohort informed by a pragmatic randomized clinical trial in Changhua County, Taiwan. The model adopted a 30-year time horizon and projected long-term outcomes, including gastric and colorectal cancer mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs; incorporating both life expectancy and health-related quality of life), and health care expenditures. Costs were evaluated from a societal perspective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Future costs and QALYs were discounted at an annual rate of 3%.

EXPOSURES: Helicobacter pylori stool antigen testing plus FIT or FIT alone.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of invitation for H pylori stool antigen testing plus FIT vs FIT alone, measured as the additional cost required to gain 1 QALY per person. Secondary outcomes included net monetary benefit and benefit-cost ratio.

RESULTS: Compared with FIT alone, invitation to co-testing was more effective and less expensive (dominant), with a base-case cost-saving incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $2094 per QALY gained (95% CI, $12 359 saved to $7291 additional cost). This resulted in a positive net monetary benefit, indicating that health benefits exceeded costs, and a benefit-cost ratio of 5.08, indicating an approximately 5-fold return on investment in the Taiwanese population. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 1 × the Taiwan gross domestic product per QALY ($33 365), invitation to co-testing remained cost-saving in 65.7% of simulations. From a US cost perspective, invitation to co-testing was not cost-saving but remained cost-effective at the trial base-case H pylori prevalence. Sensitivity analyses identified H pylori prevalence as the dominant driver; co-testing exceeded a $100 000-per-QALY threshold when prevalence fell below 21.9%.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In a pragmatic real-world setting with incomplete adherence, invitation to combined H pylori stool antigen testing and FIT was more cost-effective than FIT alone, improving lifetime outcomes and yielding cost savings in Taiwan while remaining cost-effective in higher-cost settings under moderate H pylori prevalence.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01741363.

PMID:42223961 | DOI:10.1001/jama.2026.6908