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Nevin Manimala Statistics

MegaLMM improves genomic predictions in new environments using environmental covariates

Genetics. 2024 Oct 29:iyae171. doi: 10.1093/genetics/iyae171. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Multi-environment trials (METs) are crucial for identifying varieties that perform well across a target population of environments (TPE). However, METs are typically too small to sufficiently represent all relevant environment-types, and face challenges from changing environment-types due to climate change. Statistical methods that enable prediction of variety performance for new environments beyond the METs are needed. We recently developed MegaLMM, a statistical model that can leverage hundreds of trials to significantly improve genetic value prediction accuracy within METs. Here, we extend MegaLMM to enable genomic prediction in new environments by learning regressions of latent factor loadings on Environmental Covariates (ECs) across trials. We evaluated the extended MegaLMM using the maize Genome-To-Fields dataset, consisting of 4402 varieties cultivated in 195 trials with 87.1% of phenotypic values missing, and demonstrated its high accuracy in genomic prediction under various breeding scenarios. Furthermore, we showcased MegaLMM’s superiority over univariate GBLUP in predicting trait performance of experimental genotypes in new environments. Finally, we explored the use of higher-dimensional quantitative ECs and discussed when and how detailed environmental data can be leveraged for genomic prediction from METs. We propose that MegaLMM can be applied to plant breeding of diverse crops and different fields of genetics where large-scale linear mixed models are utilized.

PMID:39471330 | DOI:10.1093/genetics/iyae171

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Canadian Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Update of Epidemiological Assessment

JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2024 Oct 29. doi: 10.2196/53218. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study provides an update to the status of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada building upon our initial analysis conducted in 2020 by incorporating an additional two years of data.

OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to summarize the status of the pandemic in Canada when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in Canada and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in Canada.

METHODS: This longitudinal study analyzed trends in traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates for COVID-19 transmissions and deaths in Canada from June 2020 to May 2023. We also used sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. For these sequences, we used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. We used t-tests of dynamic panel regression coefficients to measure the persistence of COVID-19 transmissions around the WHO declaration. Finally, we conducted a one-sided t-test for whether provincial and territorial weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of ten. We ran the test iteratively with six months of data across the sample period.

RESULTS: Canada’s speed remained below the outbreak threshold for eight months by the time of the WHO declaration ending the COVID-19 emergency of international concern. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficient remained statistically significant and positive (1.074, P-value <.001), the 7-day coefficient was negative and small in magnitude (-0.080, P-value .02). Furthermore, shift parameters for either of the two most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, were negligible (0.003 and 0.018, respectively, with P-values of .75 and .31), meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases had remained stable in the two weeks around the WHO declaration. From December of 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to ten became entirely insignificant from mid-October 2022 onward.

CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Canada, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for eight months ahead of the WHO declaration. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had largely ended in Canada by the time of the WHO declaration. These results can inform future public health interventions and strategies in Canada, as well as contribute to the global understanding of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.

PMID:39471286 | DOI:10.2196/53218

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Overview of Post-acute and Long-term Care Providers and Services Users in the United States, 2020

Natl Health Stat Report. 2024 Aug 27;(208). doi: 10.15620/cdc/158328.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This report presents national results from the National Post-acute and Long-term Care Study to describe providers and services users in seven major settings of paid, regulated post-acute and long-term care services in the United States.

METHODS: Data are from the 2020 National Post-acute and Long-term Care Study, which includes surveys of adult day services centers and residential care communities and administrative data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services on home health agencies, hospices, inpatient rehabilitation facilities, long-term care hospitals, and nursing homes.

RESULTS: The findings show variation in characteristics of the seven post-acute and long-term care settings. About 68,150 providers served roughly 7.3 million people in the United States; about one-half of these providers were residential care communities, and about one-quarter were nursing homes. The Northeast had a higher percentage of adult day services centers than other settings, the Midwest had a higher percentage of nursing homes, the South had a higher percentage of long-term care hospitals, and the West had a higher percentage of residential care communities. Among the settings, more registered nurses were employed in inpatient rehabilitation facilities and long-term care hospitals, and more licensed practical nurses in home health agencies and long-term care hospitals. The most common services were skilled nursing and therapeutic services. Adult day services centers had the highest percentage of users younger than age 65, while nearly one-half of hospice and nursing home users were age 85 and older. Adult day services centers had the highest percentage of other non-Hispanic and Hispanic users among the settings. The percentage of users with selected diagnoses and activities of daily living difficulties varied by setting.

CONCLUSION: The providers described in this report comprise a large share of the U.S. post-acute and long-term care industry. This report provides the most recent nationally representative information on these providers and services users and updates findings from previous National Center for Health Statistics reports.

PMID:39471284 | DOI:10.15620/cdc/158328

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A descriptive survey of patient experiences and access to specialty medicines with alternative funding programs

J Manag Care Spec Pharm. 2024 Nov;30(11):1308-1316. doi: 10.18553/jmcp.2024.30.11.1308.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Alternative funding programs (AFPs) seek to reduce health plan sponsor costs, for example by excluding specialty drugs from a beneficiary’s plan coverage and requiring patients to obtain medications through alternative sources (typically, the manufacturer’s patient assistance programs) via an AFP vendor as a third-party.

OBJECTIVE: To describe patients’ experiences and specialty medication access with AFPs.

METHODS: A survey method consisting of 26 optional single-choice and multiple-choice questions with branching logic divided across 5 sections (related to patient challenges with AFPs) was administered to patients recruited from an experienced AFP online patient panel and a patient advocacy group. The survey assessed patients’ awareness of AFPs from their employers, experience with the patient assistance program application process via the AFP vendor, timeliness of medication access (if granted), and/or the health impact of delay in access. All descriptive and exploratory subgroup analyses were conducted by disease area and reported income levels; statistical analyses were carried out for the exploratory analyses.

RESULTS: The final sample included 227 patients. Most patients (61% [136/223]) first heard of the AFP as part of their health benefit when trying to obtain their medication. Of 198 patients, 88% reported being stressed because of the medication coverage denial and the uncertainty of obtaining their medication. More than half of patients (54% [115/213]) reported being uncomfortable with the benefits manager from the AFP vendor. On average, patients reported waiting to receive their medication for 68.2 days (approximately 2 months); 24% (51/215) reported the wait for the medication worsened their condition and 64% (138/215) reported the wait led to stress and/or anxiety. Patients who indicated the wait time negatively affected them had considered a job change or left their job at a 3-5-fold higher rate than those who reported no impact from wait time. A significantly higher proportion of patients with hemophilia and other bleeding disorders reported receiving their prescribed medication less often than patients with other conditions (63% [19/30] vs 81% [52/64]; P = 0.022), whereas more patients with lower incomes (<$50,000 vs >$50,000) reported not receiving any medication (12% [7/57] vs 5% [7/129]; P = 0.657), although these differences were not significant.

CONCLUSIONS: Most patients who obtain their specialty medicines via AFPs reported being uncomfortable with the process and experiencing treatment delays, which may have been linked to disease progression, worsened mental well-being, and consideration of a job change. Employers should be aware of the potential downstream impacts on employee health, retention, and the employee-employer relationship when considering implementing an AFP into their health plan.

PMID:39471273 | DOI:10.18553/jmcp.2024.30.11.1308

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Comorbid depression and anxiety and their association with health care resource utilization among individuals with type 1 diabetes in the United States

J Manag Care Spec Pharm. 2024 Nov;30(11):1288-1297. doi: 10.18553/jmcp.2024.30.11.1288.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is a prevalent chronic endocrine disorder and accounts for 5%-10% of all diabetes cases worldwide. T1DM can have a substantial impact on health care utilization. Although it is well known that individuals with diabetes are at a greater risk of mental health disorders, specific evidence addressing the health care burden of comorbid depression/anxiety in people affected by T1DM is lacking.

OBJECTIVE: To assess health care resource utilization (HCRU) among adults with T1DM and comorbid depression or anxiety.

METHODS: We identified individuals aged 18 to 64 with a T1DM diagnosis from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2021, using a 25% random sample of the IQVIA PharMetrics Plus for Academics database. The index date was the date of the first medical claim with a T1DM diagnosis. Eligibility required continuous medical and prescription coverage for 12 months before (baseline) and after (follow-up) the index date. Comorbid depression/anxiety and baseline characteristics were assessed during the baseline period. The following 2 mutually exclusive groups were created: individuals with T1DM and comorbid depression/anxiety, and those with only T1DM. To balance baseline demographic and clinical characteristics between the groups, we implemented 1:1 propensity-score matching. We assessed all-cause, diabetes-related, and major adverse cardiovascular event-related HCRU during the follow-up period. Logistic (binary) and negative binomial (count) regression models examined the association between comorbid depression/anxiety and HCRU across types of health care settings.

RESULTS: Out of 6,491 eligible individuals with T1DM, 1,168 (18%) had either depression or anxiety. In the matched cohort of 2,314 individuals, those with T1DM and comorbid depression/anxiety had significantly higher odds of all-cause emergency department visits (odds ratio = 1.67; 95% CI = 1.39-2.00) and higher rates of physician office visits (incidence rate ratio = 1.37; 95% CI = 1.27-1.47) and other outpatient encounters (incidence rate ratio = 1.23; 95% CI = 1.13-1.34) than those with only T1DM. Findings were similar for diabetes-related and major adverse cardiovascular event-related HCRU.

CONCLUSIONS: Comorbid depression/anxiety among individuals with T1DM results in significantly higher HCRU than T1DM alone. The findings underscore the importance of effective management of comorbid depression/anxiety in the T1DM population.

PMID:39471271 | DOI:10.18553/jmcp.2024.30.11.1288

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Impact of discontinuing disease-modifying therapies on health care utilization among midlife patients with multiple sclerosis in the United States

J Manag Care Spec Pharm. 2024 Nov;30(11):1248-1260. doi: 10.18553/jmcp.2024.30.11.1248.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a lifelong progressive neurological disease treated primarily with disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). Disease activity tends to decline as patients age. Midlife represents a crossroads where the risks of DMT may outweigh the benefits, prompting providers to consider DMT discontinuation to reduce treatment burden. However, real-world evidence on the impact of DMT discontinuation among midlife patients is lacking.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between DMT discontinuation and health care utilization among midlife patients with MS.

METHODS: Midlife patients with MS who received an injectable or oral DMT between 2001 and 2018 were identified from the MarketScan commercial claims database. DMT discontinuation, defined as a treatment gap exceeding 90 days in days supply, was the independent variable. Patients who discontinued DMTs had their index date set as the last gap day, whereas index dates for those who continued DMTs were matched based on the time distribution of index dates of discontinuers. Inpatient hospitalizations (all-cause, MS-related, and non-MS-related), emergency department (ED) visits (all-cause, MS-related, and non-MS-related), and relapse-related hospitalizations and outpatient visits were independently evaluated during the 365-day follow-up. Patients were observed until the occurrence of an event (depending on the model), deviation from the treatment group, disenrollment, death, end of follow-up, or data unavailability. Stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (sIPTW) was employed to balance the 2 groups. The associations between DMT discontinuation and each utilization outcome were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression models with sIPTW.

RESULTS: Of 149,721 midlife patients with MS, 22.8% discontinued DMTs and 77.2% continued DMTs. Patients who discontinued DMTs had a higher cumulative incidence for all utilization outcomes during the 365-day follow-up than those who continued DMTs. Cox regression showed that DMT discontinuation was associated with a 10.3% and 24.9% higher rate of all-cause and non-MS-related inpatient hospitalizations, respectively, with no significant association found for MS-related hospitalizations. Patients discontinuing DMTs exhibited higher utilization rates for ED visits, with an increase of 21.3% for all-cause, 23.0% for MS-related, and 20.9% for non-MS-related visits compared with those who continued DMTs. We also observed a 15.9% and 52.1% higher rate of relapse-related hospitalizations and outpatient visits associated with DMT discontinuation, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed that DMT discontinuation was associated with higher health care services utilization among midlife patients with MS, especially relapse-related outpatient visits. DMT discontinuation during midlife may be premature, and DMTs may still be necessary to reduce health care utilization.

PMID:39471270 | DOI:10.18553/jmcp.2024.30.11.1248

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Health care resource utilization and costs across stages of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the United States

J Manag Care Spec Pharm. 2024 Nov;30(11):1239-1247. doi: 10.18553/jmcp.2024.30.11.1239.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: People living with ALS (plwALS) experience motor control loss, speech/swallowing difficulties, respiratory insufficiency, and early death. Advancing disease stage is typically associated with a greater burden on the health care system, and delays in diagnosis can result in substantial health care resource utilization (HCRU).

OBJECTIVE: To estimate HCRU and cost burden of plwALS across disease stages from a US payer perspective we assessed HCRU and costs in early-, mid-, and late-stage ALS.

METHODS: Using insurance claims data from the IBM MarketScan Databases between January 2013 and December 2019, we identified plwALS as having at least 2 claims at least 27 days apart with an ALS International Classification of Diseases, Ninth or Tenth Revision diagnosis code (335.20/G12.21) or at least 1 ALS diagnosis code and prescription filled for riluzole/edaravone. Eligible plwALS were aged at least 18 years and had at least 12 months of enrollment data before and at least 6 months after the index date (date diagnosis criteria met). plwALS were grouped into disease stages using an ALS severity-based staging algorithm developed using ALS symptom and staging survey data from 142 neurologists reporting on 880 plwALS. The starting date of each severity stage was defined as the first date of an ALS symptom within the early-, mid-, and late-stage categories, respectively. The ending date for a severity stage was defined as the day before the first date of an ALS symptom from a more severe category. plwALS could transition to more severe stages, with reverse transition of severity excluded. Mixed regression modeling was used to assess differences in HCRU and costs per person-year between severity stages, adjusted for age and sex.

RESULTS: 2,273 plwALS were included in the total ALS study sample, with 1,215 early-stage, 1,511 midstage, and 1,186 late-stage plwALS. 90% of early-stage plwALS had ALS symptoms before diagnosis, and 27% of late-stage plwALS had a late-stage symptom before diagnosis. In the evaluation period, later-stage ALS groups had more overall hospital admissions (early = 0.15, middle = 0.23, and late = 0.74; P < 0.01), outpatient visits/service (early = 26.81, middle = 32.78, and late = 48.54; P < 0.01), emergency department visits (early = 0.46, middle = 0.69, and late = 1.03; P < 0.01), and total prescription count (early = 9.23, middle = 11.37, and late = 12.72; P < 0.01) over 12 months. Annualized costs increased as ALS progressed (early = $31,411, middle = $51,481, and late = $121,903; P < 0.01), which was primarily driven by higher frequency of and cost per hospital admission.

CONCLUSIONS: HCRU and costs increased with ALS progression, with diagnosis frequently occurring even after experiencing late-stage symptoms. These findings highlight the potential value of delaying progression into a more resource-intensive stage by diagnosing and adequately treating plwALS earlier in the disease course.

PMID:39471269 | DOI:10.18553/jmcp.2024.30.11.1239

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Potential benefits of incorporating social determinants of health screening on comprehensive medication management effectiveness

J Manag Care Spec Pharm. 2024 Nov;30(11):1217-1224. doi: 10.18553/jmcp.2024.30.11.1217.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Increasingly, pharmacists are asked to incorporate social determinants of health (SDoH) identification and referral into clinical practice. However, to date, no studies have evaluated clinical changes from embedding SDoH screening into the delivery of comprehensive medication management (CMM) in patients with chronic conditions.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the clinical effectiveness of implementing a clinical pharmacist-led SDoH screening and referral process as part of CMM encounters across a network of 7 Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs).

METHODS: We used a retrospective cohort design to evaluate the effectiveness of integrating SDoH screening into CMM across a network of 7 FQHCs. A difference-in-difference approach was used to compare the effectiveness of CMM between patients with and without SDoH needs on the probability of achieving clinical control for blood pressure (<140 systolic/90 diastolic mm Hg) and diabetes (<9% hemoglobin A1c).

RESULTS: Among 807 patients receiving CMM in 2023, 595 (74%) were screened for SDoH. 55.1% of patients screened had 1 or more SDoH, most commonly facing barriers related to insurance (22.0%), language (11.3%), transportation (9.1%), health behaviors (7.1%), income/employment (5.9%), and food insecurity (5.6%). Comparing patients with SDoH needs with those without, the proportion of patients controlled at baseline was 66.3% vs 72.3% for hypertension and 39.0% vs 75.4% for diabetes, respectively. Following a CMM encounter, the proportion of patients who achieved blood pressure control increased 7.6% more (P = 0.225) among patients with SDoH needs than in those without SDoH, whereas diabetes control rates increased 13.3% more (P = 0.143).

CONCLUSIONS: Although not statistically significant, the results of this pilot evaluation suggest the potential for meaningful clinical improvements from screening and referral of SDoH needs as a part of CMM encounters. These results should be corroborated using a larger, more robust study design.

PMID:39471268 | DOI:10.18553/jmcp.2024.30.11.1217

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Is It Safe to Use Arterial Grafts in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction? Short-Mid-Term Propensity Analysis

Braz J Cardiovasc Surg. 2024 Oct 22;e20230384(e20230384). doi: 10.21470/1678-9741-2023-0384.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The use of multiple arterial grafts (MAGs) has an impact on patient survival; however, preference for its use in the acute phase of myocardial infarction (AMI) has not yet been established. This study aimed to compare the short-mid-term clinical results of AMI patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with a single arterial graft (SAG) vs. MAGs.

METHODS: This is a cross-sectional cohort study of 4,053 patients from the Registro Paulista de Cirurgia Cardiovascular II (REPLICCAR II). CABG in the AMI was considered when performed between one and seven days after diagnosis (n=238). Thirty-five patients underwent surgery with ≥ 2 arterial grafts (MAG group), population adjustment in SAG group was performed using the propensity score matching (PSM). Clinical follow-up was performed by telephone to assess need for readmission, new AMI, reoperation, and death.

RESULTS: After PSM, 70 patients were evaluated. During hospitalization, a significant statistical difference was observed in the surgery duration: the MAG group had a median of 4.78 hours while the SAG group had 4.11 hours (P=0.040). Within the MAG group, there was a predominance use of bilateral internal thoracic artery (62.86%), followed by radial graft associated with the use of left internal thoracic artery (28.57%) and the combination of the three grafts (8.57%). There were no significant differences between the groups in terms of outcomes up to 30 days after CABG or up to five years after CABG.

CONCLUSION: In REPLICCAR II, usage of MAGs in the AMI was not associated with clinical worsening of patients until the mid-term follow-up.

PMID:39471264 | DOI:10.21470/1678-9741-2023-0384

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Needs and Opportunities for Anal Cancer Prevention in Patients Engaged With PrEP Care: Development of Conceptual Model

J Prim Care Community Health. 2024 Jan-Dec;15:21501319241295914. doi: 10.1177/21501319241295914.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Populations at risk for HIV infection-including gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) and transgender/gender diverse people (TGD)-are at disproportionate risk for anal cancer. Most anal cancers are caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) and are preventable with HPV vaccination and screening. Engaging at-risk populations who are already receiving HIV preventive care (eg, pre-exposure prophylaxis [PrEP]) may be an effective implementation strategy. The purpose of this study was to (1) identify the information, motivation, and behavioral skills that influence decisions about anal cancer prevention and to (2) describe the healthcare utilization patterns among PrEP users that impact their engagement in anal cancer prevention.

METHODS: Using purposive sampling in the United States, we ensured diverse representation among PrEP users aged 18 to 45 across gender and ethnoracial identities. Recruitment sources included primary healthcare clinics, social media, and community venues. Semi-structured interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded using structural, pattern, and theoretical approaches.

RESULTS: Participants (N = 36) were mostly cisgender gay ethnoracial minority men. We identified 29 unique codes that were nested within 3 categories: individual decision-making, healthcare utilization patterns, and healthcare system influences. Participants commonly lacked essential information about HPV and anal cancer, often holding misconceptions about risks and prevention. Motivation for anal cancer prevention was driven by healthcare interactions and perceived risks, while fragmented healthcare and reliance on telemedicine were potential barriers. Many participants used telehealth services to access PrEP, described it as convenience, cost-effective, and liked the lack of provider interaction. Some participants used telehealth for PrEP and did not have a primary care provider. The importance of access to LGBTQ+-affirmative healthcare services was highlighted.

CONCLUSIONS: Integrating patient education and prevention services into ongoing PrEP management can enhance the reach and equity of anal cancer prevention. Our model underscores critical areas of misinformation, necessary systems-level changes, and unmet needs.

PMID:39471236 | DOI:10.1177/21501319241295914