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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Spatial model of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) risk: scoping review

BMC Public Health. 2023 Dec 7;23(1):2448. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-17185-3.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Creating a spatial model of dengue fever risk is challenging duet to many interrelated factors that could affect dengue. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how these critical factors interact and to create reliable predictive models that can be used to mitigate and control the spread of dengue.

METHODS: This scoping review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the important predictors, and spatial modelling tools capable of producing Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) risk maps. We conducted a methodical exploration utilizing diverse sources, i.e., PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, and Google Scholar. The following data were extracted from articles published between January 2011 to August 2022: country, region, administrative level, type of scale, spatial model, dengue data use, and categories of predictors. Applying the eligibility criteria, 45 out of 1,349 articles were selected.

RESULTS: A variety of models and techniques were used to identify DHF risk areas with an arrangement of various multiple-criteria decision-making, statistical, and machine learning technique. We found that there was no pattern of predictor use associated with particular approaches. Instead, a wide range of predictors was used to create the DHF risk maps. These predictors may include climatology factors (e.g., temperature, rainfall, humidity), epidemiological factors (population, demographics, socio-economic, previous DHF cases), environmental factors (land-use, elevation), and relevant factors.

CONCLUSIONS: DHF risk spatial models are useful tools for detecting high-risk locations and driving proactive public health initiatives. Relying on geographical and environmental elements, these models ignored the impact of human behaviour and social dynamics. To improve the prediction accuracy, there is a need for a more comprehensive approach to understand DHF transmission dynamics.

PMID:38062404 | DOI:10.1186/s12889-023-17185-3

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Individual and community level factors associated with modern contraceptive utilization among married women in the emerging region of Ethiopia: a multilevel mixed effects analysis of the 2019 Ethiopia Mini-Demographic and health survey

BMC Womens Health. 2023 Dec 7;23(1):652. doi: 10.1186/s12905-023-02822-1.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: A demonstrated technique to enhance reproductive health and economic progress is through ensuring that family planning services are accessible universally. Those studies that used Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data did not assess individual and community-level factors in contraceptive utilization. Thus, the study employs a multilevel mixed effects analysis approach, which allows for the examination of individual and community-level factors that influence contraceptive utilization.

METHODS: This study analyzed the 2019 Ethiopia Min Demographic and Health Survey datasets. A total of 1916 married women in the 2019 surveys were included in the analysis. The data were analyzed using Stata version 17.0. The data were analyzed using Multi-level mixed-effect logistic regression to identify the individual and community-level factors associated with modern contraceptive utilization. An adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval was used to. Show the strength and direction of the association and statistical significance was declared at a P value less than 0.05.

RESULTS: Factors significantly associated with modern contraceptive utilization were; Muslim and protestant followers [AOR = 0.31, 95% CI: (0.134, 0.714)] and [AOR = 0.35, 95% CI: (0.173, 0.691)] respectively, women with no education (OR = 0.46; 95% CI: 0.293, 0.710), those women who belong to the poor and middle wealth of household [AOR = 0.35, 95% CI: (0.237, 0.527)] and [AOR = 0.56, 95% CI: (0.347, 0.919)] respectively, women who had one to five and greater than or equal to six living children [AOR = 11.36, 95% CI:(2.119, 60.918)] and [AOR = 7.44, 95% CI:(1.437, 38.547)]respectively, Women in clusters poor wealth status [AOR = 0.40, 95% CI: (0.183, 0.875)] and women who belong to the Somali region [AOR = 0.20, 95% CI: (0.0.070, 0.506)].

CONCLUSION: The study revealed that both individual and community-level factors determined modern contraceptive utilization. At the individual level, the religion of women, educational status, the wealth of the household, and the total number of living children were significantly associated with modern contraceptive utilization. At community-level factors, community wealth status and belonging to the Somali region were significantly associated with modern contraceptive utilization. The findings suggest that interventions aimed at increasing modern contraceptive utilization should target women with lower levels of education, those living in households with lower wealth, and those with larger families. Additionally, efforts should be made to improve access to modern contraceptives in communities with lower wealth status and in regions where traditional beliefs may hinder their use.

PMID:38062400 | DOI:10.1186/s12905-023-02822-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Hemoglobin levels and clinical outcomes after extracorporeal circulation auxiliary to open heart surgery: a retrospective cohort study

BMC Cardiovasc Disord. 2023 Dec 7;23(1):598. doi: 10.1186/s12872-023-03647-4.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Extracorporeal circulation auxiliary to open heart surgery is a common procedure used to treat heart diseases. However, the optimal transfusion strategy for patients undergoing this surgery remains a subject of debate. This study aims to investigate the association between hemoglobin levels and clinical outcomes in patients undergoing extracorporeal circulation auxiliary to open heart surgery, with the ultimate goal of improving surgical success rates and enhancing patients’ quality of life.

METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV 2.2 (MIMIC-IV 2.2) database, including 4144 patients. The patients were categorized into five groups based on their minimum hemoglobin levels during hospitalization. Baseline characteristics, clinical scores, laboratory results, and clinical outcome data were collected. Statistical analyses utilized descriptive statistics, ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis tests, Kaplan-Meier method, and Log-rank test.

RESULTS: The results revealed a significant correlation between hemoglobin levels and in-hospital mortality, as well as mortality rates at 30 days, 60 days, and 180 days (p < 0.001). Patients with lower hemoglobin levels exhibited higher mortality rates. However, once hemoglobin levels exceeded 7g/dL, no significant difference in mortality rates was observed (p = 0.557). Additionally, lower hemoglobin levels were associated with prolonged hospital stay, ICU admission time, and mechanical ventilation time (p < 0.001). Furthermore, hemoglobin levels were significantly correlated with complication risk, norepinephrine dosage, and red blood cell transfusion volume (p < 0.001). However, there was no significant difference among the groups in terms of major complications, specifically sepsis (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION: The study highlights the importance of managing hemoglobin levels in patients undergoing heart surgery with extracorporeal circulation. Hemoglobin levels can serve as valuable indicators for predicting clinical outcomes and guiding treatment decisions. Physicians should carefully consider hemoglobin levels to optimize transfusion strategies and improve postoperative patient outcomes. Further research and intervention studies are warranted to validate and implement these findings in clinical practice.

PMID:38062386 | DOI:10.1186/s12872-023-03647-4

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Association between prior-night sleep and next-day fatigue in older adults: a daily diary study

BMC Geriatr. 2023 Dec 7;23(1):817. doi: 10.1186/s12877-023-04539-0.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Fatigue is known as an element of frailty. Sleep problems (e.g., short sleep duration and low sleep quality) can increase fatigue, but the day-to-day relationship between sleep and fatigue has not been studied well in older adults. Using a daily diary method, this study examined the within- and between-person associations between sleep and fatigue in older adults.

METHODS: The study recruited 56 Japanese community dwellers (age: 82-86 years; female: 37.5%). Participants responded to a daily diary questionnaire at the end of each day. Over seven days, time in bed and satisfaction were measured after waking up, whereas fatigue was assessed before going to bed. We included person-level covariates (demographic factors, and physical and mental health) and day-level covariates (time in study, and positive and negative emotions). Multilevel models were estimated to examine within- and between-person associations.

RESULTS: At the within-person level, on days following short and long time in bed and days following low levels of sleep satisfaction, individuals felt higher levels of fatigue compared with usual days. At the between-person level, no statistically significant differences in fatigue were observed between individuals with long and short time in bed.

CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that prior-day sleep is associated with next-day fatigue in older adults. Long and short sleep duration and low sleep quality can lead to fatigue. Considering that sleep is a modifiable health behavior, appropriate management of sleep behavior may reduce fatigue.

PMID:38062384 | DOI:10.1186/s12877-023-04539-0

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Evaluation of a national clinical programme for the management of self-harm in hospital emergency departments: impact on patient outcomes and the provision of care

BMC Psychiatry. 2023 Dec 7;23(1):917. doi: 10.1186/s12888-023-05340-4.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Emergency departments are important points of intervention, to reduce the risk of further self-harm and suicide. A national programme to standardise the management of people presenting to the emergency department with self-harm and suicidal ideation (NCPSHI) was introduced in Ireland in 2014. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the NCPSHI on patient outcomes and provision of care.

METHODS: Data on self-harm presentations were obtained from the National Self-Harm Registry Ireland from 2012 to 2017. The impacts of the NCPSHI on study outcomes (3-month self-harm repetition, biopsychosocial assessment provision, admission, post-discharge referral, and self-discharge) were examined at an individual and aggregate (hospital) level, using a before and after study design and interrupted time series analyses, respectively. The 15 hospitals that implemented the programme by January 2015 (of a total of 24 between 2015 and 2017) were included in the analyses.

RESULTS: There were 31,970 self-harm presentations during the study period. In hospitals with no service for self-harm (n = 4), risk of patients not being assessed reduced from 31.8 to 24.7% following the introduction of the NCPSHI. Mental health referral in this hospital group increased from 42.2 to 59.0% and medical admission decreased from 27.5 to 24.3%. Signs of a reduction in self-harm repetition were observed for this hospital group, from 35.1 to 30.4% among individuals with a history of self-harm, but statistical evidence was weak. In hospitals with a pre-existing liaison psychiatry service (n = 7), risk of self-discharge was lower post-NCPSHI (17.8% vs. 14.8%). In hospitals with liaison nurse(s) pre-NCPSHI (n = 4), medical admission reduced (27.5% vs. 24.3%) and there was an increase in self-harm repetition (from 5.2 to 7.8%. for those without a self-harm history).

CONCLUSION: The NCPSHI was associated with improvements in the provision of care across hospital groups, particularly those with no prior service for self-harm, highlighting the need to consider pre-existing context in implementation planning. Our evaluation emphasises the need for proper resourcing to support the implementation of clinical guidelines on the provision of care for people presenting to hospital with self-harm.

PMID:38062378 | DOI:10.1186/s12888-023-05340-4

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Twelfth thoracic vertebra erector spinae plane block for postoperative analgesia and early recovery after lumbar spine surgery in elderly patients: a single-blind randomized controlled trial

BMC Anesthesiol. 2023 Dec 7;23(1):402. doi: 10.1186/s12871-023-02351-2.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Severe pain after lumbar spine surgery can delay recovery in elderly patients. We explored the efficacy of T12 erector spinal plane block (ESPB) in elderly patients who underwent lumbar spine surgery.

METHODS: A total of 230 patients undergoing lumbar spine surgery were divided and randomly allocated to ultrasound-guided ESPB (n = 115) and control (n = 115) groups. The ESPB group received 20 mL of 0.4% ropivacaine bilaterally at the T12 level after intubation, whereas the control group did not receive a block. The primary outcome was the numeric rating scale (NRS) score at 12 h after surgery. Secondary outcomes included the NRS score and tramadol use within 72 h postoperatively, intraoperative remifentanil use, incidence of postoperative delirium (POD), complications of ESPB, ambulation time, and length of hospitalization after surgery.

RESULTS: The12-hour NRS (median (IQR)) score was remarkably lower in the ESPB group than in the control group (2 (1-3) vs. 3 (2-4), p = 0.004), as well as NRS score within 48 h (P < 0.01). The ESPB group had less intraoperative remifentanil use (P < 0.001), and less tramadol use within 72 h postoperatively (P < 0.001). Seven patients (6.7%) developed POD in the ESPB group and ten patients (9.3%) in the control group, without any statistically significant difference (P > 0.05). The ambulation time and length of hospitalization after surgery were shorter in the ESPB group than in the control group (P < 0.05). No ESPB-related complications were observed.

CONCLUSIONS: Bilateral T12 ESPB lowered the NRS score within 48 h after lumbar spine surgery, decreased perioperative opioid use and resulted in faster recovery in elderly patients but did not significantly reduce the incidence of POD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was retrospectively registered at www.chictr.org.cn (ChiCTR2100042037) on January 12, 2021.

PMID:38062374 | DOI:10.1186/s12871-023-02351-2

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Prevalence of obesity, hypertension and diabetes among people living with HIV in South Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BMC Infect Dis. 2023 Dec 7;23(1):861. doi: 10.1186/s12879-023-08736-5.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: HIV has become a manageable chronic condition due to the success and scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Globally, South Africa has the highest number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) and research evidence indicates that countries with the highest burden of PLHIV have a substantial burden of obesity, hypertension (HPT) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We sought to summarize the burden of these three common NCDs among PLHIV in South Africa.

METHODS: In this systematic review, multiple databases were searched for articles reporting on the prevalence of obesity, HPT, and T2D among PLHIV in South Africa published since journal inception until March 2022. A meta-analysis was conducted using random-effects models to obtain pooled prevalence estimates of the three NCDs. Heterogeneity was assessed using X2 test on Cochran’s Q statistic.

RESULTS: We included 32 studies, with 19, 22 and 18 studies reporting the prevalence of obesity, HPT, and T2D among PLHIV, respectively. The overall prevalence of obesity, HPT, and T2D was 23.2% [95% CI 17.6; 29.9], 25.5% [95% CI 15.6; 38.7], and 6.1% [95% CI 3.8; 9.7] respectively. The prevalence of obesity was significantly higher among women (P = 0.034) compared to men, however the prevalence of HPT and T2D did not differ by sex. The prevalence of each of the three NCDs did not differ significantly between rural, urban, and peri-urban areas. The prevalence of obesity and T2D was higher in studies conducted between 2013 and 2022 compared to studies conducted between 2000 and 2012, while the prevalence of HPT was higher between 2000 and 2012 compared to between 2013 and 2022.

CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that South Africa is experiencing a syndemic of NCDs among people PLHIV highlighting the need to increase cost-effective interventions and management strategies that involve integrated HIV and NCD care in the South African setting.

PMID:38062372 | DOI:10.1186/s12879-023-08736-5

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Machine Learning-Enabled NIR Spectroscopy. Part 3: Hyperparameter by Design (HyD) Based ANN-MLP Optimization, Model Generalizability, and Model Transferability

AAPS PharmSciTech. 2023 Dec 7;24(8):254. doi: 10.1208/s12249-023-02697-3.

ABSTRACT

Data variations, library changes, and poorly tuned hyperparameters can cause failures in data-driven modelling. In such scenarios, model drift, a gradual shift in model performance, can lead to inaccurate predictions. Monitoring and mitigating drift are vital to maintain model effectiveness. USFDA and ICH regulate pharmaceutical variation with scientific risk-based approaches. In this study, the hyperparameter optimization for the Artificial Neural Network Multilayer Perceptron (ANN-MLP) was investigated using open-source data. The design of experiments (DoE) approach in combination with target drift prediction and statistical process control (SPC) was employed to achieve this objective. First, pre-screening and optimization DoEs were conducted on lab-scale data, serving as internal validation data, to identify the design space and control space. The regression performance metrics were carefully monitored to ensure the right set of hyperparameters was selected, optimizing the modelling time and storage requirements. Before extending the analysis to external validation data, a drift analysis on the target variable was performed. This aimed to determine if the external data fell within the studied range or required retraining of the model. Although a drift was observed, the external data remained well within the range of the internal validation data. Subsequently, trend analysis and process monitoring for the mean absolute error of the active content were conducted. The combined use of DoE, drift analysis, and SPC enabled trend analysis, ensuring that both current and external validation data met acceptance criteria. Out-of-specification and process control limits were determined, providing valuable insights into the model’s performance and overall reliability. This comprehensive approach allowed for robust hyperparameter optimization and effective management of model lifecycle, crucial in achieving accurate and dependable predictions in various real-world applications.

PMID:38062329 | DOI:10.1208/s12249-023-02697-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Correlation of Cognitive Reappraisal and the Microstructural Properties of the Forceps Minor: A Deductive Exploratory Diffusion Tensor Imaging Study

Brain Topogr. 2023 Dec 7. doi: 10.1007/s10548-023-01020-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Cognitive reappraisal (CR) is a mechanism for emotion regulation, and the prefrontal cortex (PFC) plays a central role in the regulation of emotions. We tested the hypothesis of an association between CR function and microstructural properties of forceps minor (a commissural bundle within the PFC) in healthy subjects (HS). We analyzed a population of 65 young HS of a public dataset. The diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) sequence of every subject was analyzed to extract the derived shape (diameter and volume) and DTI metrics in terms of fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), radial diffusivity (RD), and axial diffusivity (AD) of the forceps minor. The CR subscale of the German version of the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ) was used for CR assessment. The Shapiro-Wilk test was applied to test the assumption of normality in all these parameters, adopting a statistical threshold at p < 0.05. Whenever appropriate a non-parametric two-tailed partial correlation analysis was applied to test for correlations between the CR ERQ score and the derived shape and DTI metrics, including age and sex as confounders, adopting a statistical threshold at p < 0.05. The non-parametric two-tailed partial correlation analysis revealed a mildly significant correlation with FA (ρ = 0.303; p = 0.016), a weakly significant negative correlation with MD (ρ = – 0.269; p = 0.033), and a mildly significant negative correlation with RD (ρ = – 0.305; p = 0.015). These findings suggest a correlation between DTI microstructural properties of forceps minor and CR.

PMID:38062326 | DOI:10.1007/s10548-023-01020-4

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Contemporary Outcomes of Transduodenal Sphincteroplasty: the Importance of Surgical Quality

J Gastrointest Surg. 2023 Dec 7. doi: 10.1007/s11605-022-05539-y. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD) is managed primarily by endoscopic sphincterotomy (ES); however, surgical transduodenal sphincteroplasty (TDS) is a treatment option for select patients. In our high-volume pancreatico-biliary practice, we have observed variable outcomes among TDS patients; therefore, we sought to determine preoperative predictors of durable improvement in quality of life.

METHODS: SOD patients treated by TDS between January 2006 and December 2015 were studied. The primary outcome measure was long-term changes in quality of life after sphincteroplasty. The secondary outcome measure examined postoperative outcomes, including postoperative complications, need for repeat procedures, and readmission rates. Perioperative data were abstracted, and the SF-36 quality-of-life (QoL) survey was administered. Standard statistical analysis included non-parametric methods to examine bivariate associations.

RESULTS: Eighty-eight patients had an average follow-up duration of 6.7 (± 2.9) years. Thirty (34%) patients were naïve to endoscopic therapy. Patients with prior endoscopy averaged 2.1 procedures (range 1 to 13) prior to surgery. Perioperative morbidity was 27%; one postoperative death was caused by severe acute pancreatitis. Twenty-nine (33%) patients required subsequent biliary-pancreatic procedures. QoL analysis from available patients showed that 66% were improved or much improved. With multivariable analysis including SOD type and prior endoscopic instrumentation, freedom from surgical complication was the only variable that correlated significantly with a good outcome (p < 0.02).

CONCLUSION: Surgical transduodenal sphincteroplasty provides durable symptom management for select patients with sphincter of Oddi dysfunction. Minimizing surgical complications optimizes long-term outcomes.

PMID:38062321 | DOI:10.1007/s11605-022-05539-y