Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Agreement between health care claims and the physician’s follow-up visits in the determination of post-transplant immunosuppressive therapies: the CESIT study

Epidemiol Prev. 2025 Jul-Aug;49(4):321-330. doi: 10.19191/EP25.4.A849.075.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: maintenance immunosuppressive therapy, indicated for patients after solid organ transplantation – kidney (R), liver (F), heart (C), lung (P) – and aimed at preventing rejection, involves the intake of at least one Calcineurin (CNI) inhibitor (Cyclosporin – CsA – or Tacrolimus – TAC) in combination with an Antimetabolite (Antim) (Mycophenolate Mofetil or Mycophenolic Acid – MMF – or Azathioprine – AZA) or a proliferation signal inhibitor (mTOR) (Sirolimus – SIR – or Everolimus – EVE) with the possible addition of corticosteroids (in particular Prednisone – PRED). The possibility of comparing prescribing patterns identified through different data sources represents an important methodological challenge and could shed light on the accuracy, advantages, and limitations of different information sources, aspects that must be considered when planning future observational studies.

OBJECTIVES: to assess, within a cohort of solid organ transplant patients, the levels of concordance in the definition of post-transplant immunosuppressive therapy between health administrative flows and what is reported by the medical specialist during the patient’s periodic follow-up visit.

DESIGN: analysis of the level of concordance of information on post-transplant maintenance immunosuppressive therapy collected from two different data sources: the regional health administrative databases (SIS) and the national transplant information system (SIT). This analysis was performed as part of a retrospective cohort study – the CESIT study – including all patients undergoing single solid organ transplantation (heart, liver, lung, kidney) between 2009 and 2019 in four Italian regions (Lombardy, Lazio, Veneto, Sardinia). The therapeutic combinations of immunosuppressants were identified by means of specific algorithms applied to the SIS data and subsequently compared with the therapeutic patterns recorded by specialist physicians during follow-up visits (FU) and entered electronically in the SIT flow sheets. The analysis focuses mainly on the therapy delivered in the 30 days following hospital discharge (index therapy); it is then extended to comparisons made over longer time windows (at 1, 2, and 3 years from the date of hospital discharge).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the level of agreement between the two data sources in defining the index therapy was assessed using three methods: 1. Cohen’s k statistic: this method allowed quantification of the level of agreement at the level of individual active substance; 2. proportion of active ingredients in common: an ordinal categorical variable was calculated for each patient indicating the level of concordance between the sources: null (no active ingredient in common), low (<40 % of ATCs in common), medium (40-59 %), high (>60 %), perfect (identical combinations); 3. Levenshtein distance (LS): considering polypharmacies from a formal point of view as strings, the computational effort that would be required to make them equal was estimated.

RESULTS: there were 2,692 solid organ transplant patients for whom index therapy information was available from both SIS and SIT (C: 6.8%; F: 44.9%; P: 5.2%; R: 43.1%). In comparison to CNI immunosuppressants, Cohen’s k coefficient showed high levels of concordance for all transplant types (CsA heart: 0.78; CsA liver: 0.96 – TAC heart: 0.74; TAC kidney: 0.92); while for MMF, differential performance by organ type was evident (MMF heart: 0.51; MMF kidney: 0.78). For the Preds, there was greater discordance in particular in R and F. When comparing immunosuppressive therapy as a whole, the ‘high/perfect’ concordance levels concerned on average 80.1% of the patients (F: 70.1%; R: 91.3%). The results were comparable by applying LS. Finally, the concordance at 1, 2, and 3 years after discharge reported a less good performance than with index therapy, which was, however, stable over the time intervals considered.

CONCLUSIONS: the level of concordance between therapeutic combinations for the same patient detected between different sources was generally high: despite this, the level of agreement varied according to the individual active substance, the type of transplant and the time window examined. The results of this work show that SIS are a valuable tool for defining immunosuppressive maintenance therapies and offer useful elements to consider when planning observational studies based on the two data flows.

PMID:41399891 | DOI:10.19191/EP25.4.A849.075

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Risk communication in the ‘One Health Citizen Science’ Project: from team creation to future pro-spects through a survey study

Epidemiol Prev. 2025 Jul-Aug;49(4):308-320. doi: 10.19191/EP25.4.A863.067.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: when facing growing environmental and social challenges, it is essential to involve citizens and social actors to increase the probability of success of the interventions, after establishing a cohesive and harmonised working group.

OBJECTIVES: to illustrate the tools for risk communication activity developed as part of the ‘One Health Citizen Science’ Project (OHCS), the actions undertaken and the preliminary results that offer an overview of the context and perspectives; to analyse the results of the internal survey of the group of experts working in OHCS on the issues of risk perception and communication in the specific context of citizen science (CS).

DESIGN: description of the actions undertaken in the OHCS communication sector and a transversal study on risk perception and CS.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: within the OHCS project, the following tools were produced during various meetings: information sheets, to be compiled for each of the 7 polluted sites and the 2 regional waste plans, containing useful information for setting up a risk communication programme; a methodological document for risk communication, to be used as a guide for the construction of specific communication plans in each area; an internal questionnaire, consisting of 29 questions to deepen the knowledge of the project partners, administered through the Google Forms platform.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: description of the actions undertaken in the OHCS communication sector and a transversal study on risk perception and CS of the experts, part of the project team; quantitative and qualitative analysis of the information sheets; evaluation of the impact of the methodological document for risk communication; analysis of the data obtained from the internal questionnaire, through descriptive statistical methods and multivariate analysis, implemented with R Software.

RESULTS: the information sheets contain useful information for risk communication, but need to be updated. The methodological document is still only partially used. The internal questionnaire administered to the experts of the project team saw the participation of 46 adults (between 30 and 59 years old: N. 35; 76,09%), mainly female (N. 31; 67,39%), with a high level of education. The results confirm the awareness, expected in sector operators, that dangers involve risks and reinforce the indication to work directly to mitigate them. Over two thirds of respondents have not participated in CS projects, and the majority declared themselves convinced that there are protection and prevention measures that can be implemented immediately, involving the responsible authorities and providing widespread information dedicated to different stakeholders.

CONCLUSIONS: the OHCS project, launched in 2023, has developed useful tools for collecting information and preparing environmental monitoring and biomonitoring activities. The results obtained so far show an improvement in the quality and quantity of the information collected, which is useful for involving social actors. The approaches used promote systematic methodologies that can facilitate the participation of all stakeholders. Internal communication actions within the project have contributed to the consolidation of the project team and the mapping of citizens’ social actors, and have developed awareness of the importance of CS for the planned activities and replicability in other contexts.

PMID:41399890 | DOI:10.19191/EP25.4.A863.067

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Benchmarking nazionale della sopravvivenza per stadio alla diagnosi dei tumori infantili in Italia (BENCHISTA-ITA): protocollo di studio

Epidemiol Prev. 2025 Jul-Aug;49(4):299-307. doi: 10.19191/EP25.4.A886.077.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: survival rates for childhood cancers have significantly improved over recent decades, with 5-year survival now approaching 90% for many types. However, documented variations in survival across European countries and Italian regions highlight the need to address inequalities. One of the most critical prognostic factors is the extent of tumour spread at diagnosis (tumour stage).

OBJECTIVES: the BENCHISTA-ITA aims to enhance understanding of regional differences in childhood cancer survival and to promote the widespread adoption of the Toronto Guidelines (TG) by Italian cancer registries for the most common solid paediatric tumours.

DESIGN: the study will examine stage distribution and survival for nine solid paediatric cancers: medulloblastoma, neuroblastoma, Wilms tumour, retinoblastoma, and ependymoma (age: 0-14 years), as well as astrocytoma, osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, and rhabdomyosarcoma (age: 0-19 years).

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the study will include all children under 15 or 20 years (depending on the tumour type) diagnosed between 01.01.2013 and 31.12.2017, with relevant histological codes. Participating Italian cancer registries will assign tumour stage at diagnosis using the Toronto Guidelines.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: the statistical power to detect differences in stage distribution and survival rates among regions is limited by the number of incident cases per tumour type and region. Therefore, analyses will be descriptive, with 95% confidence intervals. Overall survival for each tumour type will be estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method.

CONCLUSIONS: BENCHISTA-ITA represents an important step toward a more complete and standardized registration of childhood cancers in Italy. The results may support targeted interventions to reduce inequalities and improve outcomes for paediatric patients.

PMID:41399889 | DOI:10.19191/EP25.4.A886.077

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Pneumococcal vaccination recommendations in at-risk adults and people aged 65 years or over across the Italian regions: a mapping review

Epidemiol Prev. 2025 Jul-Aug;49(4):291-298. doi: 10.19191/EP25.4.A848.068.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: to review pneumococcal vaccination recommendations in at-risk adults and people aged 65 years or over across the Italian Regions.

DESIGN: mapping review of available online resources, both at regional and local health unit level, on pneumococcal vaccination programmes by age and risk group.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the review included institutional websites of regional and local health authorities, freely accessible to the public via generic search engines, containing information on pneumococcal vaccination in frail people.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the following information was collected and classified: • populations targeted by the immunization programme; • type of recommended vaccine (conjugate and/or polysaccharide); • adopted vaccination schedule; • mode of patient contact; • involved health professional; • availability of vaccination registry; • availability of vaccination coverage data; • presence of online awareness campaigns.

RESULTS: a total of 24 institutional websites, representative of all Italian Regions, were included in the review. More than 90% of the recommendations collected were published between 2023 and 2024. In 75% of the analyzed documents, the Regions offer pneumococcal vaccination to the cohort aged 65 years; in 46% of the documents, the offer is extended to all persons aged 65 years and over. In 96% of the resources, the vaccination programme includes at-risk adults, and 75% of these give details of the diseases for which vaccination is recommended. In seven resources, it is reported that Regions recommend a single dose of the 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, in the others the use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) followed by the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) is indicated, with different schedules. In at-risk adults, 83% of the documents recommend the sequential schedule with PCV followed by PPSV23, with time schedules defined in 63% of cases. The mode of patient contact is reported in 7 web resources, 4 of which include sending an invitation letter at 65 years of age. Vaccination center health professionals (16/24) and general practitioners (15/24) are the healthcare providers most involved in promoting and administering vaccination. In 71% of the resources, the regional health authorities were reported to have promoted targeted communication campaigns. Data on PCV coverage by age were available for 6 Regions, but not by risk group.

CONCLUSIONS: the findings of this study highlight significant heterogeneity in the offer of pneumococcal vaccination to at-risk adults and people aged 65 years and older among Italian Regions. Greater efforts are needed to standardize and harmonize vaccination policies and to coordinate vaccination communication. The integration of immunization registries with high-risk patient clinical data will allow the systematic identification of vaccine candidates and facilitate the monitoring of vaccination coverage.

PMID:41399888 | DOI:10.19191/EP25.4.A848.068

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Prevalence of gambling behaviours in a sample of 12-14-year-old Italian preadolescents

Epidemiol Prev. 2025 Jul-Aug;49(4):279-290. doi: 10.19191/EP25.4.A873.073.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: gambling is a widespread phenomenon among adolescents, with increasing prevalence among preadolescents.

OBJECTIVES: to describe the prevalence of gambling and problematic gambling in a sample of secondary school students of Piedmont Region (Northern Italy) and Lazio Region (Central Italy) which participated in the “GAPUnplugged” experimental study.

METHODS: data were collected through an anonymous questionnaire created ad hoc and administered between November 2022 and January 2023. Prevalence of gambling in the past 12 months and 30 days and of problematic and at-risk behaviour measured through the SOGS-RA scale were estimated.

RESULTS: 1,874 students aged 12 to 14 participated in the study. Prevalence of gambling was 55.7% in the last 12 months and 36.4% in the last 30 days. Sixteen percent of students engaged in regular gambling (3 or more times in the last 30 days), 7.2% had at risk gambling behaviour, and 3.4% had problematic gambling behaviour. Prevalence was higher among males and among students of schools of the city of Rome.

CONCLUSIONS: gambling among preadolescents is a widespread phenomenon, with a proportion of students at risk or exhibiting problematic behaviours similar to other addictive risk behaviours. It is needed to create and implement specific preventive interventions to limit early exposure to gambling in adolescence and preadolescence.

PMID:41399887 | DOI:10.19191/EP25.4.A873.073

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Problematic use of smartphones and social media in adolescents: clinical implications and prevention strategies

Epidemiol Prev. 2025 Jul-Aug;49(4):267-271. doi: 10.19191/EP25.4.078.

ABSTRACT

Problematic smartphone and social media use among adolescents has rapidly become a social emergency with significant mental health implications. Recent studies show an increase in psychiatric symptoms and suicidal behaviors related to patterns of addictive use rather than total exposure time. This phenomenon, amplified by neurocognitive reward mechanisms and the possibility of continuous access, compromises attention, sleep, and interpersonal skills. Prevention strategies are structured on three levels: technical and legal control (use restrictions and school bans), educational and family empowerment (digital education and family use plans), and health prevention through screening and counseling. The article concludes with the hope for a change in strategy: not only limiting use, but also fostering a conscious and critical relationship with technology through coordinated, evidence-based policies.

PMID:41399885 | DOI:10.19191/EP25.4.078

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Juvenile detention in Italy: from a model of protection admired throughout Europe to a criminalising and pathogenic place

Epidemiol Prev. 2025 Jul-Aug;49(4):258-266. doi: 10.19191/EP25.4.081.

ABSTRACT

Juvenile prisons represent a jumble of dilemmas and choices for those concerned about the health and future of young detained people. While often presented as an opportunity for “rescue” and even social redemption, juvenile justice facilities offer a variety of approaches, ranging from the more advanced ones that allow effective interactions with the “outside” (family, school, and the world of work) to the more closed ones where the lack of support and activities exposes the most serious aspects of any incarceration: violence, isolation, and various forms of addiction. Italy’s main and largest juvenile prison, named after Cesare Beccaria (an Italian philosopher universally renowned for laying the conceptual foundations against the death penalty and torture), has been experiencing a period of great difficulty for years, characterized by widespread violence, inadequate care for the needs of young people in prison, staff frustration, and social criminalization of inmates, accompanied by the stigmatization of those who work there. The author analyses the risks for young people detained in such places and invites to reflect about what general conclusions can be drawn about juvenile prisons in today’s Italian society.

PMID:41399884 | DOI:10.19191/EP25.4.081

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Near-term climate extremes in Iran based on compound hazards analysis

Sci Rep. 2025 Dec 15;15(1):43843. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-29026-x.

ABSTRACT

Iran, located in arid and semi-arid regions, has faced significant weather and climate extremes in recent years. This study aims to investigate the climate-related hazards associated with precipitation and temperature in Iran during the Hindcast period (1991-2019) and the Forecast period (2023-2028) using the Near-term Climate Prediction (NTCP) project. We investigate compounding climate-related hazards to assess the severity and importance of weather and climate extremes. To accomplish this, we integrated ten climate extreme indices, namely heavy precipitation (R10mm), the Simple Precipitation Intensity Index (SDII), heat wave frequency (HWF), heat wave duration (HWD), cold wave frequency (CWF), and cold wave duration (CWD), along with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12), which further encapsulates drought frequency (DF), drought duration (DD), drought severity (DS), and drought intensity (DI). The CMIP6-DCPP models effectively simulate climate extremes and their seasonal cycle across Iran, with minor discrepancies in arid and mountainous regions due to data limitations. The result demonstrates a significant anticipated rise in drought frequency and heat wave events throughout the country within the near-term forecast period. Future projections indicate a shift in precipitation patterns, with increased heavy precipitation in the Zagros Mountains and southwest regions alongside more frequent but less intense droughts nationwide. Heat wave frequency and duration are projected to increase, particularly in southern Zagros and eastern and western Iran, with high-altitude areas experiencing accelerated warming. The results project a shift in climate risk distribution over the next decade, with low to moderate-risk areas decreasing by approximately 15.7% and high-risk areas increasing by roughly 10%, encompassing over 36% of Iran’s total area by 2028. Integrated risk maps reveal high to very high compound climate hazard levels across large parts of Iran, necessitating urgent adaptation planning, especially in western, southern Zagros, and eastern regions. Sensitivity analysis confirms that identified multi-hazard hotspots in Iran are spatially robust and statistically significant, reflecting the dominant influence of key climatic extremes.

PMID:41398423 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-29026-x

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Machine learning enhanced aeration systems for optimizing oxygen transfer efficiency for sustainable and safe wastewater management

Sci Rep. 2025 Dec 15;15(1):43767. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-27583-9.

ABSTRACT

This study models oxygen-transfer efficiency (OTE) in circular solid-jet aerators using a laboratory dataset of 320 observations collected under controlled conditions. Experiments varied jet count (1-8), opening area (49.24-124.03 mm²), jet length (170-470 mm), and discharge (1.05-3.04 l s⁻¹); dissolved oxygen was measured, and OTE was computed and standardized to 20 °C. Five regressors-Linear Regression (LR), M5P, Random Tree (RT), Reduced Error Pruning (REP) Tree, and Random Forest (RF)-were trained with a 70/30 train-test split and evaluated using CC, RMSE, MAE, NSE, and SI. Residual histograms with kernel-density overlays and an uncertainty summary (U95, bounds) indicated compact, slightly negative-centered errors for the tree-based models and broader, heavy-tailed errors for LR; a Taylor diagram and a Spearman heatmap supported these patterns. Among all models, RF achieved the highest test performance and the lowest errors, with results statistically superior to alternatives by paired t-tests on residuals (α = 0.05); the Spearman heatmap also showed the strongest concordance between RF predictions and observations, while a leave-one-input-out sensitivity analysis identified discharge (Q) as the dominant driver. Taken together, the results identify RF as the most accurate and generalizable predictor across the tested operating envelope, providing a practical basis for the design and optimization of aeration systems in water and wastewater treatment.

PMID:41398418 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-27583-9

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Protein domain-specific genotype-phenotype correlation study of neurofibromatosis type 1

Sci Rep. 2025 Dec 15. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-32422-y. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Neurofibromatosis type 1 (OMIM 613,113, NF1) is a neurocutaneous disorder caused by pathogenic genetic alteration in NF1 gene, which exhibits nearly full penetrance and affects multiple systems. Previously two association studies of optic pathway glioma and NF1 protein domains, derived from 215 and 381 patients, respectively, obtained contradicting results, reflecting different datasets can lead to different conclusions and there is a need for a larger dataset to reach a solid conclusion. There is another association study based on 832 patients considering protein domains, clinical features, and types of variants. But it only investigated the GTPase-activating protein domain and non-truncating variants. In this study, an extended association analysis involving eight protein domains, two types of variants, namely truncating and non-truncating variants, and 32 clinical features, was performed based on a combined dataset of 1663 NF1 patients consisting of 738 cases recruited in Hong Kong and 925 reported cases from 25 studies. In summary, this study has identified 121 statistically significant associations between clinical features, types of variants, and protein domains, with 120 of them being novel findings. These new insights about the genotype-phenotype association promote better clinical management.

PMID:41398366 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-32422-y