Tag: pubmed

PLOS Glob Public Health. 2023 Dec 13;3(12):e0002679. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002679. eCollection 2023.

ABSTRACT

Brazil was one of the countries most affected during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a pre-vaccine era, and mathematical and statistical models were used in decision-making and public policies to mitigate and suppress SARS-CoV-2 dispersion. In this article, we intend to overview the modeling for COVID-19 in Brazil, focusing on the first 18 months of the pandemic. We conducted a scoping review and searched for studies on infectious disease modeling methods in peer-reviewed journals and gray literature, published between January 01, 2020, and June 2, 2021, reporting real-world or scenario-based COVID-19 modeling for Brazil. We included 81 studies, most corresponding to published articles produced in Brazilian institutions. The models were dynamic and deterministic in the majority. The predominant model type was compartmental, but other models were also found. The main modeling objectives were to analyze epidemiological scenarios (testing interventions’ effectiveness) and to project short and long-term predictions, while few articles performed economic impact analysis. Estimations of the R0 and transmission rates or projections regarding the course of the epidemic figured as major, especially at the beginning of the crisis. However, several other outputs were forecasted, such as the isolation/quarantine effect on transmission, hospital facilities required, secondary cases caused by infected children, and the economic effects of the pandemic. This study reveals numerous articles with shared objectives and similar methods and data sources. We observed a deficiency in addressing social inequities in the Brazilian context within the utilized models, which may also be expected in several low- and middle-income countries with significant social disparities. We conclude that the models were of great relevance in the pandemic scenario of COVID-19. Nevertheless, efforts could be better planned and executed with improved institutional organization, dialogue among research groups, increased interaction between modelers and epidemiologists, and establishment of a sustainable cooperation network.

PMID:38091336 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pgph.0002679

PLoS One. 2023 Dec 13;18(12):e0284851. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0284851. eCollection 2023.

ABSTRACT

Scales, sets of discrete pitches that form the basis of melodies, are thought to be one of the most universal hallmarks of music. But we know relatively little about cross-cultural diversity of scales or how they evolved. To remedy this, we assemble a cross-cultural database (Database of Musical Scales: DaMuSc) of scale data, collected over the past century by various ethnomusicologists. Statistical analyses of the data highlight that certain intervals (e.g., the octave, fifth, second) are used frequently across cultures. Despite some diversity among scales, it is the similarities across societies which are most striking: step intervals are restricted to 100-400 cents; most scales are found close to equidistant 5- and 7-note scales. We discuss potential mechanisms of variation and selection in the evolution of scales, and how the assembled data may be used to examine the root causes of convergent evolution.

PMID:38091315 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0284851

PLoS One. 2023 Dec 13;18(12):e0287961. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287961. eCollection 2023.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: One of the three main targets of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy (2015-2035) is that no tuberculosis (TB) patients or their households face catastrophic costs (defined as exceeding 20% of the annual household income) because of the disease. Our study seeks to determine, as a baseline, the magnitude and main drivers of the costs associated with TB disease for patients and their households and to monitor the proportion of households experiencing catastrophic costs in Brazil.

METHODS: A national cross-sectional cluster-based survey was conducted in Brazil in 2019-2021 following WHO methodology. TB patients of all ages and types of TB were eligible for the survey. Adult TB patients and guardians of minors (<18 years old) were interviewed once about costs, time loss, coping measures, income, household expenses, and asset ownership. Total costs, including indirect costs measured as reported household income change, were expressed as a percentage of annual household income. We used descriptive statistics to analyze the cost drivers and multivariate logistic regression to determine factors associated with catastrophic costs.

RESULTS: We interviewed 603 patients, including 538 (89%) with drug-sensitive (DS) and 65 (11%) with drug-resistant (DR) TB. Of 603 affected households, 48.1% (95%CI: 43-53.2) experienced costs above 20% of their annual household income during their TB episode. The proportion was 44.4% and 78.5% among patients with DS- and DR-TB, respectively. On average, patients incurred costs of US$1573 (95%CI: 1361.8-1785.0) per TB episode, including pre-diagnosis and post-diagnosis expenses. Key cost drivers were post-diagnosis nutritional supplements (US$317.6, 95%CI: 232.7-402.6) followed by medical costs (US$85.5, 95%CI: 54.3-116.5) and costs of travel for clinic visits during treatment (US$79.2, 95%CI: 61.9-96.5). In multivariate analysis, predictors of catastrophic costs included positive HIV status (aOR = 3.0, 95%CI:1.1-8.6) and self-employment (aOR = 2.7, 95%CI:1.1-6.5); high education was a protective factor (aOR = 0.1, 95%CI:0.0-0.9).

CONCLUSIONS: Although the services offered to patients with TB are free of charge in the Brazilian public health sector, the availability of free diagnosis and treatment services does not alleviate patients’ financial burden related to accessing TB care. The study allowed us to identify the costs incurred by patients and suggest actions to mitigate their suffering. In addition, this study established a baseline for monitoring catastrophic costs and fostering a national policy to reduce the costs to patients for TB care in Brazil.

PMID:38091306 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0287961

PLoS One. 2023 Dec 13;18(12):e0295752. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0295752. eCollection 2023.

ABSTRACT

Common prosperity stands as a pivotal concept and objective within China’s socialism with distinctive characteristics, serving as a fundamental assurance and basis for ensuring its people’s happiness and comprehensive development. This research employs a Coupled Coordination Degree Model to construct a common prosperity Index using data from China between 2010 and 2020. The study investigates the influence of innovation and entrepreneurship on common prosperity while examining the regulating roles played by the government and market during this process. The outcomes demonstrate that innovation substantially facilitates the realization of common prosperity. The relationship between entrepreneurship and common prosperity follows a positive “U”-shaped curve, where entrepreneurship significantly contributes to common prosperity upon reaching a particular scale. Further investigations reveal heterogeneity in the impact of innovation and entrepreneurship on common prosperity. Specifically, innovation significantly contributes to common prosperity in the northern regions, whereas entrepreneurship has a noteworthy impact on common prosperity in the southern regions. Moreover, it is worth noting that both innovation and entrepreneurship have a significant influence on common prosperity in areas characterized by low economic development levels and a scarcity of fixed capital. The fiscal effects of the government attenuate the promoting effect of innovation on common prosperity but enhance the adverse influence of entrepreneurship. On the contrary, market mechanisms mitigate the negative impact of entrepreneurship on common prosperity. Consequently, achieving common prosperity requires strengthened regional innovation cooperation, encouraging advanced regions to lead underdeveloped regions, and leveraging the regulatory roles of both the government and the market, thus progressing gradually towards common prosperity.

PMID:38091305 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0295752

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Dec 19;120(51):e2309760120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2309760120. Epub 2023 Dec 13.

ABSTRACT

Genetic assimilation is the process by which a phenotype that is initially induced by an environmental stimulus becomes stably inherited in the absence of the stimulus after a few generations of selection. While the concept has attracted much debate after being introduced by C. H. Waddington 70 y ago, there have been few experiments to quantitatively characterize the phenomenon. Here, we revisit and organize the results of Waddington’s original experiments and follow-up studies that attempted to replicate his results. We then present a theoretical model to illustrate the process of genetic assimilation and highlight several aspects that we think require further quantitative studies, including the gradual increase of penetrance, the statistics of delay in assimilation, and the frequency of unviability during selection. Our model captures Waddington’s picture of developmental paths in a canalized landscape using a stochastic dynamical system with alternative trajectories that can be controlled by either external signals or internal variables. It also reconciles two descriptions of the phenomenon-Waddington’s, expressed in terms of an individual organism’s developmental paths, and that of Bateman in terms of the population distribution crossing a hypothetical threshold. Our results provide theoretical insight into the concepts of canalization, phenotypic plasticity, and genetic assimilation.

PMID:38091287 | DOI:10.1073/pnas.2309760120

PLoS One. 2023 Dec 13;18(12):e0294557. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0294557. eCollection 2023.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: General practitioners (GPs) often assess patients with acute infections. It is challenging for GPs to recognize patients needing immediate hospital referral for sepsis while avoiding unnecessary referrals. This study aimed to predict adverse sepsis-related outcomes from telephone triage information of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives.

METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using linked routine care databases from out-of-hours GP cooperatives, general practices, hospitals and mortality registration. We included adult patients with complaints possibly related to an acute infection, who were assessed (clinic consultation or home visit) by a GP from a GP cooperative between 2017-2019. We used telephone triage information to derive a risk prediction model for sepsis-related adverse outcome (infection-related ICU admission within seven days or infection-related death within 30 days) using logistic regression, random forest, and neural network machine learning techniques. Data from 2017 and 2018 were used for derivation and from 2019 for validation.

RESULTS: We included 155,486 patients (median age of 51 years; 59% females) in the analyses. The strongest predictors for sepsis-related adverse outcome were age, type of contact (home visit or clinic consultation), patients considered ABCD unstable during triage, and the entry complaints”general malaise”, “shortness of breath” and “fever”. The multivariable logistic regression model resulted in a C-statistic of 0.89 (95% CI 0.88-0.90) with good calibration. Machine learning models performed similarly to the logistic regression model. A “sepsis alert” based on a predicted probability >1% resulted in a sensitivity of 82% and a positive predictive value of 4.5%. However, most events occurred in patients receiving home visits, and model performance was substantially worse in this subgroup (C-statistic 0.70).

CONCLUSION: Several patient characteristics identified during telephone triage of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives were associated with sepsis-related adverse outcomes. Still, on a patient level, predictions were not sufficiently accurate for clinical purposes.

PMID:38091283 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0294557

J Anim Physiol Anim Nutr (Berl). 2023 Dec 13. doi: 10.1111/jpn.13914. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

This study aimed at investigating the effect of hydrolyzed soya lecithin; also called lysolecithin or lysophosphatidylcholine, on growth performance, caecal microbiota and fat depots in pre-breeding primiparous rabbits does. For this, 60 V-Line primiparous rabbits does (5-6 months) were used in a 30-day experiment. Does were allotted into three iso-nitrogenous iso-caloric dietary treatments (n = 20/group) as follows: (1) CON received 0% soya lecithin, (2) LECL group was fed a basal diet supplemented with 0.5% soya lecithin and (3) LECH group was fed a basal diet supplemented with 1% soya lecithin. Growth performance indices were measured, caecum samples were collected for measurement of specific bacteria via qPCR, and several fat depots including periovarian fat were sampled for adipocyte morphometry and fatty acid profiling. Statistical analysis was performed using GLM procedures of SAS v9.4. Soya lecithin increased feed intake (p < 0.05). The abundance of caecal Bifidobacteria species, Ruminococcus species and phylum Butryvibrio-specific genes increased (p < 0.05) in rabbits receiving soya lecithin in their diet, soya lecithin increased the level of polyunsaturated fatty acids in subcutaneous and perirenal fat (p < 0.05) and increased the level of monounsaturated fatty acids in periovarian fat (p < 0.05); additionally, the adipocyte area increased in periovarian and perirenal fat (p < 0.05). In conclusion, soya lecithin at a dose of 0.5% increased feed intake and energy storage in adipocytes and improved the fatty acid profile of periovarian fat.

PMID:38091274 | DOI:10.1111/jpn.13914

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Dec 13. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-30997-5. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

A growing number of companies are incorporating internal carbon pricing into their climate management strategies, making it one of the ways in which the private sector can combat carbon emissions and respond to the climate crisis. In this study, we used the synthetic control method in an attempt to discover whether the implementation of internal carbon pricing has an impact on the carbon reduction of typical firms at an individual level. As some of the firms cannot be properly fitted, statistical approaches were then applied to the S&P 500 constituent firms to test if there is any correlation between the emission cuts and internal carbon pricing. We also conducted a channel analysis. Through examining three possible channels, internal carbon pricing is found to affect firms’ carbon reduction mainly through two channels, namely the level of energy intensity and R&D investments. Among them, the energy intensity plays a positive mediating role between emission reduction and internal carbon pricing. As to another channel, contrary to expectations, internal carbon pricing, to some extent, suppresses the R&D investments which will promote carbon emission reduction. That is, the size of R&D investments has masking effects in the relationship between emission cuts and internal carbon pricing. Our findings contribute to researches on the carbon pricing, emission reduction, and climate management efforts from the private sector and have implications for practices.

PMID:38091215 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-023-30997-5

Neurol Sci. 2023 Dec 13. doi: 10.1007/s10072-023-07241-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: About 15% to one third of migraineurs experience aura symptoms. Aura is a reversible focal neurological phenomenon involving visual, sensory, speech, and motor symptoms that usually precede migraine pain. Monoclonal antibodies against calcitonin-related peptide (anti- CGRP mAbs) are effective in preventing chronic and episodic migraine, but little is known about their effectiveness on specifically preventing migraine with aura.

METHODS: This is a pilot prospective observational cohort study, aiming at evaluating the effectiveness and safety of Erenumab, Fremanezumab or Galcanezumab for the treatment of migraine aura. We enrolled 14 patients at the Headache Centre of University Federico II of Naples. Duration of follow-up was 12 months. We assessed mean monthly days with aura symptoms, with or without subsequent headache, as well as mean monthly days with headache and mean monthly MIDAS score, by reviewing standardized paper patient headache diaries every three months.

RESULTS: A significant decrease in mean monthly aura days was observed throughout the observation period (median baseline: 13, interquartile range: 4-16; after 12 months: 1, interquartile range: 0-3, p < 0.001). We observed a statistically significant decrease in mean monthly headache days as well (median baseline 21, interquartile range: 16-30; after 12 months: 5, interquartile range: 4-7, p < 0.001). During the 12-month treatment period, none of the 14 patients reported mild or serious adverse events.

CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that anti-CGRP mAbs are highly effective in migraine with aura, both in reducing mean monthly aura days and mean monthly days with headache.

PMID:38091211 | DOI:10.1007/s10072-023-07241-6

Behav Res Methods. 2023 Dec 13. doi: 10.3758/s13428-023-02312-0. Online ahead of print.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:38091209 | DOI:10.3758/s13428-023-02312-0