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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy by the level of area deprivation in South Korea

Front Public Health. 2023 Aug 1;11:1215914. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1215914. eCollection 2023.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Comparative evidence suggests that the impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy has been relatively milder in South Korea. This study aims to examine whether the pandemic has universal or unequal impacts on life expectancy across 250 districts with varying levels of deprivation.

METHODS: Using mortality data from 2012 to 2021 obtained from the Microdata Integrated Service of Statistics Korea, we calculated life expectancy at birth and age 65 for both sexes, by deprivation quintiles, before and during the pandemic. We summarized life expectancy gaps using the slope of the inequality index (SII) and further decomposed the gaps by the contribution of age and cause of death using Arriaga’s method.

RESULTS: Both men and women experienced consistent improvements in life expectancy from 2012 to 2019, but the trend was disrupted during 2020 and 2021, primarily driven by older people. While men in more deprived areas were initially hit harder by the pandemic, the life expectancy gap across deprivation quintiles remained relatively constant and persistent across the study period [SII: -2.48 (CI: -2.70 from -2.27) for 2019 and – 2.84 (CI: -3.06 from -2.63) for 2020]. Middle-aged men from the most deprived areas were the most significant contributors to the life expectancy gap, with liver disease, liver cancer, transport accidents, and intentional injuries being the leading causes, both in the pre and during the pandemic. While these contributors remained largely similar before and during the pandemic, the contribution of transport accidents and liver cancer to the male life expectancy gap slightly decreased during the pandemic, while that of ischemic heart disease and pneumonia slightly increased. A similar increase was also observed for the female life expectancy gap.

CONCLUSION: This study found no clear evidence of an increased life expectancy gap during the pandemic in South Korea, unlike in other countries, although access to emergency healthcare services may have been slightly more disturbed in deprived areas. This achievement can provide lessons for other countries. However, the persistent regional gaps in life expectancy observed over the past decade indicate the need for more targeted public health policies to address this issue.

PMID:37593728 | PMC:PMC10427859 | DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1215914

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

TheiaEuk: a species-agnostic bioinformatics workflow for fungal genomic characterization

Front Public Health. 2023 Aug 1;11:1198213. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1198213. eCollection 2023.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The clinical incidence of antimicrobial-resistant fungal infections has dramatically increased in recent years. Certain fungal pathogens colonize various body cavities, leading to life-threatening bloodstream infections. However, the identification and characterization of fungal isolates in laboratories remain a significant diagnostic challenge in medicine and public health. Whole-genome sequencing provides an unbiased and uniform identification pipeline for fungal pathogens but most bioinformatic analysis pipelines focus on prokaryotic species. To this end, TheiaEuk_Illumina_PE_PHB (TheiaEuk) was designed to focus on genomic analysis specialized to fungal pathogens.

METHODS: TheiaEuk was designed using containerized components and written in the workflow description language (WDL) to facilitate deployment on the cloud-based open bioinformatics platform Terra. This species-agnostic workflow enables the analysis of fungal genomes without requiring coding, thereby reducing the entry barrier for laboratory scientists. To demonstrate the usefulness of this pipeline, an ongoing outbreak of C. auris in southern Nevada was investigated. We performed whole-genome sequence analysis of 752 new C. auris isolates from this outbreak. Furthermore, TheiaEuk was utilized to observe the accumulation of mutations in the FKS1 gene over the course of the outbreak, highlighting the utility of TheiaEuk as a monitor of emerging public health threats when combined with whole-genome sequencing surveillance of fungal pathogens.

RESULTS: A primary result of this work is a curated fungal database containing 5,667 unique genomes representing 245 species. TheiaEuk also incorporates taxon-specific submodules for specific species, including clade-typing for Candida auris (C. auris). In addition, for several fungal species, it performs dynamic reference genome selection and variant calling, reporting mutations found in genes currently associated with antifungal resistance (FKS1, ERG11, FUR1). Using genome assemblies from the ATCC Mycology collection, the taxonomic identification module used by TheiaEuk correctly assigned genomes to the species level in 126/135 (93.3%) instances and to the genus level in 131/135 (97%) of instances, and provided zero false calls. Application of TheiaEuk to actual specimens obtained in the course of work at a local public health laboratory resulted in 13/15 (86.7%) correct calls at the species level, with 2/15 called at the genus level. It made zero incorrect calls. TheiaEuk accurately assessed clade type of Candida auris in 297/302 (98.3%) of instances.

DISCUSSION: TheiaEuk demonstrated effectiveness in identifying fungal species from whole genome sequence. It further showed accuracy in both clade-typing of C. auris and in the identification of mutations known to associate with drug resistance in that organism.

PMID:37593727 | PMC:PMC10428623 | DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1198213

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Comparing the prevalence of statistical reporting inconsistencies in COVID-19 preprints and matched controls: a registered report

R Soc Open Sci. 2023 Aug 16;10(8):202326. doi: 10.1098/rsos.202326. eCollection 2023 Aug.

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 outbreak has led to an exponential increase of publications and preprints about the virus, its causes, consequences, and possible cures. COVID-19 research has been conducted under high time pressure and has been subject to financial and societal interests. Doing research under such pressure may influence the scrutiny with which researchers perform and write up their studies. Either researchers become more diligent, because of the high-stakes nature of the research, or the time pressure may lead to cutting corners and lower quality output. In this study, we conducted a natural experiment to compare the prevalence of incorrectly reported statistics in a stratified random sample of COVID-19 preprints and a matched sample of non-COVID-19 preprints. Our results show that the overall prevalence of incorrectly reported statistics is 9-10%, but frequentist as well as Bayesian hypothesis tests show no difference in the number of statistical inconsistencies between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 preprints. In conclusion, the literature suggests that COVID-19 research may on average have more methodological problems than non-COVID-19 research, but our results show that there is no difference in the statistical reporting quality.

PMID:37593717 | PMC:PMC10427813 | DOI:10.1098/rsos.202326

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Are all underimmunized measles clusters equally critical?

R Soc Open Sci. 2023 Aug 16;10(8):230873. doi: 10.1098/rsos.230873. eCollection 2023 Aug.

ABSTRACT

This research develops a novel system science approach to examine the potential risk of outbreaks caused by geographical clustering of underimmunized individuals for an infectious disease like measles. We use an activity-based population network model and school immunization records to identify underimmunized clusters of zip codes in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Although Virginia has high vaccine coverage for measles at the state level, finer-scale investigation at the zip code level finds three statistically significant underimmunized clusters. This research examines why some underimmunized geographical clusters are more critical in causing outbreaks and how their criticality changes with a possible drop in overall vaccination coverage. Results show that different clusters can cause vastly different outbreaks in a region, depending on their size, location, immunization rate and network characteristics. Among the three underimmunized clusters, we find one to be critical and the other two to be benign in terms of an outbreak risk. However, when the vaccine coverage among children drops by just 5% (or 0.8% overall in the population), one of the benign clusters becomes highly critical. This work also examines the demographic and network properties of these clusters to identify factors that are responsible for affecting the criticality of the clusters. Although this work focuses on measles, the methodology is generic and can be applied to study other infectious diseases.

PMID:37593709 | PMC:PMC10427811 | DOI:10.1098/rsos.230873

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Live birth after letrozole-stimulated cycles versus hormone replacement treatment cycles for the first frozen embryo transfer in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial

BMJ Open. 2023 Aug 17;13(8):e072021. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072021.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Hormone replacement treatment (HRT) is the most commonly used endometrial preparation protocol for frozen embryo transfer (FET) in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). However, studies have found that HRT may increase the risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and some obstetric complications. Letrozole is a new first-line ovulation induction drug for PCOS and can effectively induce spontaneous ovulation by reducing oestrogen levels. However, letrozole is still rarely used in FET and has only been reported in a few studies in Asian populations. High-quality, well-powered randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing HRT and letrozole-stimulated protocols are lacking. The aim of this study is to compare the efficacy and safety of two protocols in patients with PCOS.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a multicentre, open-label RCT in four reproductive medical centres in China. In total, 1078 women with PCOS will be randomised (1:1) to the letrozole-stimulated or HRT group in their first FET cycle and their pregnancy and perinatal outcomes during this cycle will be followed up and analysed. The primary outcome is live birth. Secondary outcomes are cycle cancellation rate, biochemical pregnancy, clinical pregnancy, miscarriage, ectopic pregnancy, obstetric and perinatal complications, neonatal complications and birth weight.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from the Institutional Review Board of Reproductive and Genetic Hospital of CITIC-XIANGYA (LL-SC-2022-001). Written informed consent will be obtained from each participant. The findings will be disseminated through conference presentations and publication in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05227391.

PMID:37591656 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072021

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Sodium bicarbonate for the treatment of severe metabolic acidosis with moderate or severe acute kidney injury in the critically ill: protocol for a randomised clinical trial (BICARICU-2)

BMJ Open. 2023 Aug 17;13(8):e073487. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-073487.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: When both severe metabolic acidemia (pH equal or less than 7.20; PaCO2 equal or less than 45 mm Hg and bicarbonate concentration equal or less than of 20 mmol/L) and moderate-to-severe acute kidney injury are observed, day 28 mortality is approximately 55%-60%. A multiple centre randomised clinical trial (BICARICU-1) has suggested that sodium bicarbonate infusion titrated to maintain the pH equal or more than 7.30 is associated with a higher survival rate (secondary endpoint) in a prespecified stratum of patients with both severe metabolic acidemia and acute kidney injury patients. Whether sodium bicarbonate infusion may improve survival at day 90 (primary outcome) in these severe acute kidney injury patients is currently unknown.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The sodium bicarbonate for the treatment of severe metabolic acidosis with moderate or severe acute kidney injury in the critically ill: a randomised clinical trial (BICARICU-2) trial is an investigator-initiated, multiple centre, stratified, parallel-group, unblinded trial with a computer-generated allocation sequence and an electronic system-based randomisation. After randomisation, the intervention group will receive 4.2% sodium bicarbonate infusion to target a plasma pH equal or more than 7.30 while the control group will not receive sodium bicarbonate. The primary outcome is the day 90 mortality. Main secondary outcomes are organ support dependences.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial has been approved by the appropriate ethics committee (CPP Nord Ouest, Rouen, France, 25 April 2019, number: 19.03.15.72446). Informed consent is required. If sodium bicarbonate improves day 90 mortality, it will become part of the routine care.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04010630.

PMID:37591655 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2023-073487

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Defining the capabilities and competencies of high-performing family physicians: a mixed methods study

BMJ Open. 2023 Aug 17;13(8):e072266. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072266.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: High-performing primary care is recognised as the foundation of an effective and efficient healthcare system. Many medical graduates report they are not prepared for independent practice. To date, no research has been conducted to identify the key capabilities and competencies of high-performing family medicine graduates in Canada. This pilot project aims to identify the capabilities and competencies of high-performing early-career family physicians in Ontario, Canada, and explore opportunities for enhancing learning, teaching and assessment within family medicine residency programmes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Employing a mixed-methods explanatory sequential study design, this research will use a theory-driven Professional Capability Framework, previously validated in studies across nine professions, to guide the investigation. The first (quantitative) phase involves surveying ~50 high-performing early-career family physicians identified as high performing by educators, colleagues and leaders. The objective of the survey is to identify the key competencies and personal, interpersonal and cognitive capabilities of high-performing family physicians. The second (qualitative) phase involves conducting workshops with stakeholders, including educators, professional associations, regulators and colleges, to test the veracity of the results. Quantitative data will be analysed using descriptive statistics, and qualitative data will be analysed using Braun and Clarke’s thematic analysis. The first and second phases will identify the key capabilities and competencies required to confidently adapt to the independent practice of comprehensive family medicine and inform fit-for-purpose educational strategies for teaching, learning and assessment.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study is approved by the University of Toronto’s Health Sciences Research Ethics Board (#41799). Research findings will be discussed with professional bodies, educators responsible for family medicine curricula and universities. Study findings will also be disseminated through academic conferences and academic publications in peer-reviewed journals. Project summaries and infographics will be developed and disseminated to key stakeholders.

PMID:37591643 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072266

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Cohort profile for development of machine learning models to predict healthcare-related adverse events (Demeter): clinical objectives, data requirements for modelling and overview of data set for 2016-2018

BMJ Open. 2023 Aug 17;13(8):e070929. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-070929.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: In-hospital health-related adverse events (HAEs) are a major concern for hospitals worldwide. In high-income countries, approximately 1 in 10 patients experience HAEs associated with their hospital stay. Estimating the risk of an HAE at the individual patient level as accurately as possible is one of the first steps towards improving patient outcomes. Risk assessment can enable healthcare providers to target resources to patients in greatest need through adaptations in processes and procedures. Electronic health data facilitates the application of machine-learning methods for risk analysis. We aim, first to reveal correlations between HAE occurrence and patients’ characteristics and/or the procedures they undergo during their hospitalisation, and second, to build models that allow the early identification of patients at an elevated risk of HAE.

PARTICIPANTS: 143 865 adult patients hospitalised at Grenoble Alpes University Hospital (France) between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2018.

FINDINGS TO DATE: In this set-up phase of the project, we describe the preconditions for big data analysis using machine-learning methods. We present an overview of the retrospective de-identified multisource data for a 2-year period extracted from the hospital’s Clinical Data Warehouse, along with social determinants of health data from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, to be used in machine learning (artificial intelligence) training and validation. No supplementary information or evaluation on the part of medical staff will be required by the information system for risk assessment.

FUTURE PLANS: We are using this data set to develop predictive models for several general HAEs including secondary intensive care admission, prolonged hospital stay, 7-day and 30-day re-hospitalisation, nosocomial bacterial infection, hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism, and in-hospital mortality.

PMID:37591641 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2022-070929

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Exploring international differences in ovarian cancer care: a survey report on global patterns of care, current practices, and barriers

Int J Gynecol Cancer. 2023 Aug 17:ijgc-2023-004563. doi: 10.1136/ijgc-2023-004563. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Although global disparities in survival rates for patients with ovarian cancer have been described, variation in care has not been assessed globally. This study aimed to evaluate global ovarian cancer care and barriers to care.

METHODS: A survey was developed by international ovarian cancer specialists and was distributed through networks and organizational partners of the International Gynecologic Cancer Society, the Society of Gynecologic Oncology, and the European Society of Gynecological Oncology. Respondents received questions about care organization. Outcomes were stratified by World Bank Income category and analyzed using descriptive statistics and logistic regressions.

RESULTS: A total of 1059 responses were received from 115 countries. Respondents were gynecological cancer surgeons (83%, n=887), obstetricians/gynecologists (8%, n=80), and other specialists (9%, n=92). Income category breakdown was as follows: high-income countries (46%), upper-middle-income countries (29%), and lower-middle/low-income countries (25%). Variation in care organization was observed across income categories. Respondents from lower-middle/low-income countries reported significantly less frequently that extensive resections were routinely performed during cytoreductive surgery. Furthermore, these countries had significantly fewer regional networks, cancer registries, quality registries, and patient advocacy groups. However, there is also scope for improvement in these components in upper-middle/high-income countries. The main barriers to optimal care for the entire group were patient co-morbidities, advanced presentation, and social factors (travel distance, support systems). High-income respondents stated that the main barriers were lack of surgical time/staff and patient preferences. Middle/low-income respondents additionally experienced treatment costs and lack of access to radiology/pathology/genetic services as main barriers. Lack of access to systemic agents was reported by one-third of lower-middle/low-income respondents.

CONCLUSIONS: The current survey report highlights global disparities in the organization of ovarian cancer care. The main barriers to optimal care are experienced across all income categories, while additional barriers are specific to income levels. Taking action is crucial to improve global care and strive towards diminishing survival disparities and closing the care gap.

PMID:37591611 | DOI:10.1136/ijgc-2023-004563

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Total-Body Multiparametric PET Quantification of 18F-FDG Delivery and Metabolism in the Study of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Recovery

J Nucl Med. 2023 Aug 17:jnumed.123.265723. doi: 10.2967/jnumed.123.265723. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Conventional whole-body static 18F-FDG PET imaging provides a semiquantitative evaluation of overall glucose metabolism without insight into the specific transport and metabolic steps. Here we demonstrate the ability of total-body multiparametric 18F-FDG PET to quantitatively evaluate glucose metabolism using macroparametric quantification and assess specific glucose delivery and phosphorylation processes using microparametric quantification for studying recovery from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods: The study included 13 healthy subjects and 12 recovering COVID-19 subjects within 8 wk of confirmed diagnosis. Each subject had a 1-h dynamic 18F-FDG scan on the uEXPLORER total-body PET/CT system. Semiquantitative SUV and the SUV ratio relative to blood (SUVR) were calculated for different organs to measure glucose utilization. Tracer kinetic modeling was performed to quantify the microparametric blood-to-tissue 18F-FDG delivery rate [Formula: see text] and the phosphorylation rate k 3, as well as the macroparametric 18F-FDG net influx rate ([Formula: see text]). Statistical tests were performed to examine differences between healthy subjects and recovering COVID-19 subjects. The effect of COVID-19 vaccination was also investigated. Results: We detected no significant difference in lung SUV but significantly higher lung SUVR and [Formula: see text] in COVID-19 recovery, indicating improved sensitivity of kinetic quantification for detecting the difference in glucose metabolism. A significant difference was also observed in the lungs with the phosphorylation rate k 3 but not with [Formula: see text], which suggests that glucose phosphorylation, rather than glucose delivery, drives the observed difference of glucose metabolism. Meanwhile, there was no or little difference in bone marrow 18F-FDG metabolism measured with SUV, SUVR, and [Formula: see text] but a significantly higher bone marrow [Formula: see text] in the COVID-19 group, suggesting a difference in glucose delivery. Vaccinated COVID-19 subjects had a lower lung [Formula: see text] and a higher spleen [Formula: see text] than unvaccinated COVID-19 subjects. Conclusion: Higher lung glucose metabolism and bone marrow glucose delivery were observed with total-body multiparametric 18F-FDG PET in recovering COVID-19 subjects than in healthy subjects, implying continued inflammation during recovery. Vaccination demonstrated potential protection effects. Total-body multiparametric PET of 18F-FDG can provide a more sensitive tool and more insights than conventional whole-body static 18F-FDG imaging to evaluate metabolic changes in systemic diseases such as COVID-19.

PMID:37591539 | DOI:10.2967/jnumed.123.265723