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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Pre-test probability for coronary artery disease in patients with chest pain based on machine learning techniques

Int J Cardiol. 2023 May 23:S0167-5273(23)00734-9. doi: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2023.05.041. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: A correct and prompt diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) is a crucial component of disease management to reduce the risk of death and improve the quality of life in patients with CAD. Currently, the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend selecting an appropriate pre-diagnosis test for an individual patient according to the CAD probability. The purpose of this study was to develop a practical pre-test probability (PTP) for obstructive CAD in patients with chest pain using machine learning (ML); also, the performance of ML-PTP for CAD is compared to the final result of coronary angiography (CAG).

METHODS: We used a database from a single-center, prospective, all-comer registry designed to reflect real-world practice since 2004. All subjects underwent invasive CAG at Korea University Guro Hospital in Seoul, South Korea. We used logistic regression algorithms, random forest (RF), supporting vector machine, and K-nearest neighbor classification for the ML models. The dataset was divided into two consecutive sets according to the registration period to validate the ML models. ML training for PTP and internal validation used the first dataset registered between 2004 and 2012 (8631 patients). The second dataset registered between 2013 and 2014 (1546 patients) was used for external validation. The primary endpoint was obstructive CAD. Obstructive CAD was defined as having a stenosis diameter of >70% on the quantitative CAG of the main epicardial coronary artery.

RESULTS: We derived an ML-based model consisting of three different models according to the subject used to obtain the information, such as the patient himself (dataset 1), the community’s first medical center (dataset 2), and doctors (dataset 3). The performance range of the ML-PTP models as the non-invasive test had C-statistics of 0.795 to 0.984 compared to the result of invasive testing via CAG in patients with chest pain. The training ML-PTP models were adjusted to have 99% sensitivity for CAD so as not to miss actual CAD patients. In the testing dataset, the best accuracy of the ML-PTP model was 45.7% using dataset 1, 47.2% using dataset 2, and 92.8% using dataset 3 and the RF algorithm. The CAD prediction sensitivity was 99.0%, 99.0%, and 98.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: We successfully developed a high-performance model of ML-PTP for CAD which is expected to reduce the need for non-invasive tests in chest pain. However, since this PTP model is derived from data of a single medical center, multicenter verification is required to use it as a PTP recommended by the major American societies and the ESC.

PMID:37230426 | DOI:10.1016/j.ijcard.2023.05.041

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Increased arterial stiffness elevates the risk of heart failure in diabetic patients

Int J Cardiol. 2023 May 23:S0167-5273(23)00732-5. doi: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2023.05.039. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown that arterial stiffness (AS) was a risk factor for heart failure (HF) in nondiabetic patients. We aimed to analyze this impact in a community-based diabetic population.

METHODS: Our study excluded those who had HF before brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) measurement and included 9041 participants finally. Subjects were divided into the normal (<14 m/s), intermediate (14-18 m/s), and elevated baPWV groups (>18 m/s) based on baPWV values. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to analyze the effect of AS on HF risk.

RESULTS: During the median follow-up of 4.19 years, 213 patients had HF. The results of Cox model showed that HF risk in the elevated baPWV group was 2.25 times higher than that in the normal baPWV group (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24-4.11). HF risk increased by 18% (95% CI:1.03-1.35) for every 1 additional standard deviation(SD)of baPWV. Restricted cubic spline results showed statistically significant overall and non-linear associations between AS and HF risk (P < 0.05). The subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis were consistent with that of total population.

CONCLUSIONS: AS is an independent risk factor for developing HF in the diabetic population, and AS exhibits a dose-response relationship with HF risk.

PMID:37230424 | DOI:10.1016/j.ijcard.2023.05.039

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Improving bowel management in children with spina bifida

J Pediatr Gastroenterol Nutr. 2023 May 25. doi: 10.1097/MPG.0000000000003847. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: In individuals with spina bifida (SB), bowel incontinence is associated with lower quality of life and lower likelihood of employment. In an effort to maximize bowel continence in children and adolescents, we created a bowel management assessment and follow up protocol in a multi-disciplinary clinic. Here we report the results of this protocol using quality-improvement methodology.

METHODS: Continence was defined as no unplanned bowel movements. Our protocol involved:1) a standardized 4-item questionnaire about bowel continence and consistency; 2) If the patient was not achieving continence, an intervention starting with oral medication (stimulant and/or osmotic laxatives), and/or suppositories (glycerin or bisacodyl) followed by an escalation to trans-anal irrigation, or continence surgery; and 3) follow up phone calls at regular intervals to monitor progress and make changes as needed. Quality improvement methodology was employed. Results are summarized with descriptive statistics.

RESULTS: We screened 178 eligible patients in the SB clinic. Eighty-eight agreed to participate in the bowel management program. Of those who did not participate, the majority (68/90, 76%) were already achieving continence with their bowel regimen. Of children in the program, most (68/88, 77%) had a diagnosis of meningomyelocoele. At 1 year, the proportion of patients who were bowel accident free improved to 46% (vs 22% initially, p=0.0007).

CONCLUSIONS: A standardized bowel management protocol, primarily the use of suppositories and trans-anal irrigation to achieve social continence, as well as frequent telephone follow up, can reduce bowel incontinence in children and adolescents with SB.

PMID:37229746 | DOI:10.1097/MPG.0000000000003847

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

What affects diagnostic and therapeutic times for cancer patients care?

Recenti Prog Med. 2023 Jun;114(6):362-367. doi: 10.1701/4042.40230.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: According with “Numbers of cancer in Italy. 2021” mortality is decreasing for both the genders (-10% for men, -8% for women) in Italy. However, this trend is not uniform and seems stable in the Southern regions. Analyses of oncological care in Campania Region highlighted some structural critical issues and delays, which did not guarantee an efficient and effective use of the available economic resources. So, the Campania region established in September 2016 the Campania oncological network (Roc) addressed to prevention, diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation of tumours through the establishment of multidisciplinary oncological groups (Gom). In February 2020, the ValPeRoc project was launched with the aim of periodically and progressively evaluating the Roc’s performance both for the clinical services and for the economic aspects.

METHODS: In five Goms (colon, ovary, lung, prostate, bladder) active in some Roc hospitals, the pre-Gom time elapsing between the date of diagnosis and the date of the first Gom meeting and the Gom time elapsing between the date of the first Gom meeting and the date of the treatment decision were measured. Gom times longer than 28 days were defined as high. The risk of high Gom time was analyzed with a Bart-type machine learning algorithm, considering the set of regressors (features) available to classify patients.

RESULTS: The results on the test set (54 patients) report an accuracy of 0.68. The classification technique reported a good fit for colon Gom (93%) and an over-classification for lung Gom. The study of the marginal effects showed a higher risk for those who had a previous therapeutic act and for lung Gom.

CONCLUSIONS: Within the Goms took in consideration the proposed statistical technique showed that, depending on each Gom, correctly classified about 70% of individuals on risk of delaying permanence within the Roc. The ValPeRoc project evaluates Roc activity for the first time through a replicable analysis of patient pathway times from diagnosis to the act of treatment. Specifically, the times analyzed measure the quality of the regional health care system.

PMID:37229684 | DOI:10.1701/4042.40230

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Exposome: from definition to future challenges.

Recenti Prog Med. 2023 Jun;114(6):349-354. doi: 10.1701/4042.40227.

ABSTRACT

The exposome concept arises from the need to integrate different disciplines of public health and environmental sciences, mainly including environmental epidemiology, exposure science, and toxicology. The role of the exposome is to understand how the totality of an individual’s exposures throughout the lifetime can impact human health. The etiology of a health condition is rarely explained by a single exposure. Therefore, examining the human exposome as a whole becomes relevant to simultaneously consider multiple risk factors and more accurately estimate concurrent causes of different health outcomes. Generally, the exposome is explained through three domains: general external exposome, specific external exposome, and internal exposome. The general external exposome includes measurable population-level exposures such as air pollution or meteorological factors. The specific external exposome includes information on individual exposures, such as lifestyle factors, typically obtained from questionnaires. Meanwhile, the internal exposome encompasses multiple biological responses to external factors, detected through molecular and omics analyses. Additionally, in recent decades, the socio-exposome theory has emerged, where all exposures are studied as a phenomenon dependent on the interaction between socioeconomic factors that vary depending on the context, allowing the identification of mechanisms that lead to health inequalities. The considerable production of data in exposome studies has led researchers to face new methodological and statistical challenges, introducing various approaches to estimate the effect of the exposome on health. Among the most common are regression models (Exposome-Wide Association Study – ExWAS), dimensionality reduction and exposure grouping techniques, and machine learning methods. The significant conceptual and methodological innovation of the exposome for a more holistic evaluation of the risks associated with human health is continuously expanding and will require further investigations related to the application of information obtained from studies into prevention and public health policies.

PMID:37229681 | DOI:10.1701/4042.40227

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Benign incidental lesion of the calcaneus: the calcaneal vascular remnant

Acta Radiol. 2023 May 25:2841851231176266. doi: 10.1177/02841851231176266. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The calcaneal vascular remnant, first described by Fleming et al. in 2005, is a benign intramedullary lesion of the calcaneus with a vascular origin.

PURPOSE: To determine the prevalence and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristics of incidental calcaneal vascular remnant on routine ankle MRI.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 457 ankle MRI scans for the presence of calcaneal vascular remnant. MRI was considered positive when a focal cyst-like area was seen on a T2-weighted sequence, and a low signal intensity was identified on a T1-weighted image beneath the calcaneal sulcus. Patients with calcaneal vascular remnants were further evaluated for age, gender, right or left foot location, size, and lesion characteristics.

RESULTS: The prevalence of incidental calcaneal vascular remnant was 21.7% on our consecutive ankle MR examinations. The average lesion size was 5.5 mm. No statistically significant difference was noted in the frequency of lesion detection between gender, age, and side of the lesions (P > 0.05). Multilobulated lesions were detected predominantly in women (P = 0.013) and classic type lesions were detected predominantly in men (P = 0.036).

CONCLUSION: This report is the first to determine the prevalence and MRI characteristics of calcaneal vascular remnants. Detecting and reporting this lesion on routine MRI is essential to avoid confusion with other pathologic entities.

PMID:37229665 | DOI:10.1177/02841851231176266

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Improved use of faecal immunochemical tests for haemoglobin in the Scottish bowel screening programme

J Med Screen. 2023 May 25:9691413231175611. doi: 10.1177/09691413231175611. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop a risk-scoring model in the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme incorporating faecal haemoglobin concentration with other risk factors for colorectal cancer.

METHODS: Data were collected for all individuals invited to participate in the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme between November 2017 and March 2018 including faecal haemoglobin concentration, age, sex, National Health Service Board, socioeconomic status, and screening history. Linkage with The Scottish Cancer Registry identified all screening participants diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Logistic regression was performed to identify which factors demonstrated significant association with colorectal cancer and could be used in the development of a risk-scoring model.

RESULTS: Of 232,076 screening participants, 427 had colorectal cancer: 286 diagnosed following a screening colonoscopy and 141 arising after a negative screening test result giving an interval cancer proportion of 33.0%. Only faecal haemoglobin concentration and age showed a statistically significant association with colorectal cancer. Interval cancer proportion increased with age and was higher in women (38.1%) than men (27.5%). If positivity in women were mirrored in men at each age quintile interval cancer proportion would still have remained higher in women (33.2%). Moreover, an additional 1201 colonoscopies would be required to detect 11 colorectal cancers.

CONCLUSIONS: Development of a risk scoring model using early data from the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme was not feasible due to most variables showing insignificant association with colorectal cancer. Tailoring the faecal haemoglobin concentration threshold according to age could help to diminish some of the disparity in interval cancer proportion between women and men. Strategies to achieve sex equality using faecal haemoglobin concentration thresholds depend considerably on which variable is selected for equivalency and this requires further exploration.

PMID:37229658 | DOI:10.1177/09691413231175611

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Fragment Merging Using a Graph Database Samples Different Catalogue Space than Similarity Search

J Chem Inf Model. 2023 May 25. doi: 10.1021/acs.jcim.3c00276. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Fragment merging is a promising approach to progressing fragments directly to on-scale potency: each designed compound incorporates the structural motifs of overlapping fragments in a way that ensures compounds recapitulate multiple high-quality interactions. Searching commercial catalogues provides one useful way to quickly and cheaply identify such merges and circumvents the challenge of synthetic accessibility, provided they can be readily identified. Here, we demonstrate that the Fragment Network, a graph database that provides a novel way to explore the chemical space surrounding fragment hits, is well-suited to this challenge. We use an iteration of the database containing >120 million catalogue compounds to find fragment merges for four crystallographic screening campaigns and contrast the results with a traditional fingerprint-based similarity search. The two approaches identify complementary sets of merges that recapitulate the observed fragment-protein interactions but lie in different regions of chemical space. We further show our methodology is an effective route to achieving on-scale potency by retrospective analyses for two different targets; in analyses of public COVID Moonshot and Mycobacterium tuberculosis EthR inhibitors, potential inhibitors with micromolar IC50 values were identified. This work demonstrates the use of the Fragment Network to increase the yield of fragment merges beyond that of a classical catalogue search.

PMID:37229647 | DOI:10.1021/acs.jcim.3c00276

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Dimension reduction in higher-order contagious phenomena

Chaos. 2023 May 1;33(5):053117. doi: 10.1063/5.0152959.

ABSTRACT

We investigate epidemic spreading in a deterministic susceptible-infected-susceptible model on uncorrelated heterogeneous networks with higher-order interactions. We provide a recipe for the construction of one-dimensional reduced model (resilience function) of the N-dimensional susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics in the presence of higher-order interactions. Utilizing this reduction process, we are able to capture the microscopic and macroscopic behavior of infectious networks. We find that the microscopic state of nodes (fraction of stable healthy individual of each node) inversely scales with their degree, and it becomes diminished due to the presence of higher-order interactions. In this case, we analytically obtain that the macroscopic state of the system (fraction of infectious or healthy population) undergoes abrupt transition. Additionally, we quantify the network’s resilience, i.e., how the topological changes affect the stable infected population. Finally, we provide an alternative framework of dimension reduction based on the spectral analysis of the network, which can identify the critical onset of the disease in the presence or absence of higher-order interactions. Both reduction methods can be extended for a large class of dynamical models.

PMID:37229635 | DOI:10.1063/5.0152959

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Normal range of intraoperative three-dimensionally derived right ventricular free-wall strain in coronary artery bypass surgery patients

Echocardiography. 2023 May 25. doi: 10.1111/echo.15624. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Data on intraoperative three-dimensionally derived right ventricular free-wall strain (3D-RV FWS) is sparse.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate the normal range of intraoperative 3D-RV FWS in patients scheduled for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and compared to conventional echocardiographic parameters. Prospective observational study.

METHODS: A total of 150 patients with preserved left and right ventricular (RV) function and sinus rhythm, without significant heart valve disease or pulmonary hypertension undergoing isolated on-pump CABG surgery, with an uneventful, complication-free intraoperative course. 3D-RV FWS analysis and conventional echocardiographic assessment of RV function were performed intraoperatively in anesthetized and ventilated patients using transesophageal echocardiography (TEE). TomTec 4D RV-Function 2.0 software for assessment of 3D-RV FWS and three-dimensional right ventricular ejection fraction (3D-RV EF). Philips QLAB 10.8 was used to evaluate tissue velocity of the tricuspid annulus (RV S´), tricuspid annular systolic excursion (TAPSE), and RV fractional area change (FAC). All echocardiographic measurements were performed under stable hemodynamic conditions and predefined fluid management without any vasoactive support or pacing. The prospective observational study was performed in a single university hospital setting.

RESULTS: Assessment of 3D-RV FWS was feasible in 95% of patients. No included patient experienced any serious perioperative complication. In our group of patients, median values with interquartile range (IQR) for 3D-RV FWS and 3D-RV EF were -25.2 (IQR -29.9 to -21.8) and 46.3% (IQR 41.0%-50.1%), respectively. RV FAC, RV S´, and TAPSE accounted for 39.7% (IQR 34.5%-44.4%), 14.8 cm/s (IQR 11.8-19.0 cm/s), and 22 mm (IQR 20-25 mm). The normal range (2.5% to 97.5% percentile) for 3D-RV FWS was -37.1 to -12.8. There was no relevant correlation of 3D-RV FWS to postoperative outcome in this group of CABG patients.

CONCLUSION: We present distribution values for intraoperative 3D-RV FWS and conventional parameters of RV function assessment in a healthy on-pump CABG patient population without serious perioperative complications. We observed no correlations of these parameters with any of the outcome parameters considered. Therefore, we consider these values to be intraoperative TEE-assessed normal values, which can be expected in on-pump CABG patients.

PMID:37229579 | DOI:10.1111/echo.15624