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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Using clinical risk models to predict outcomes: what are we predicting and why?

Emerg Med J. 2023 Jul 19:emermed-2022-213057. doi: 10.1136/emermed-2022-213057. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Clinical risk prediction models can support decision making in emergency medicine, but directing intervention towards high-risk patients may involve a flawed assumption. This concepts paper examines prognostic clinical risk prediction and specifically describes the potential impact of treatment effects in model development studies. Treatment effects may lead to models failing to achieve the aim of identifying the patients most likely to benefit from intervention, and may instead identify patients who are unlikely to benefit from intervention. The paper provides practical advice to help clinicians who wish to use clinical prediction scores to assist clinical judgement rather than dictate clinical decision making.

PMID:37468227 | DOI:10.1136/emermed-2022-213057

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Survival benefit of sentinel lymph node biopsy in Asian melanoma patients

Pigment Cell Melanoma Res. 2023 Jul 19. doi: 10.1111/pcmr.13113. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) provides important prognostic information for early-stage melanomas. However, statistics regarding the survival comparison between SLNB and nodal observation in Asia, where acral lentiginous melanoma (ALM) predominates, are limited. This study aimed to identify if SLNB offered survival benefits over nodal observation in early-stage melanomas in Taiwan. The retrospective study included 227 patients who met the SLNB criteria according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines and were treated at National Taiwan University Hospital from June 1997 to June 2021. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression models. Of the study population, ALM accounted for 73.1%; 161 patients (70.9%) underwent SLNB and 66 patients (29.1%) were under nodal observation. Multivariate analysis showed significantly improved melanoma-specific survival (hazard ratio [HR], 0.6; p = .02) in the SLNB group. Among those who underwent completion lymph node dissection (CLND), the non-sentinel node positivity rate was 44.4%. Immediate CLND resulted in significantly longer melanoma-specific survival and distant-metastasis-free survival (DMFS) compared to nodal observation. (HR, 0.2; p = .01 for melanoma-specific survival. HR, 0.3; p = .046 for DMFS). In conclusion, SLNB may provide survival benefits of cutaneous melanoma over nodal observation in the Taiwanese population.

PMID:37468225 | DOI:10.1111/pcmr.13113

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Omega-3 Fatty Acid Biomarkers and Incident Atrial Fibrillation

J Am Coll Cardiol. 2023 Jul 25;82(4):336-349. doi: 10.1016/j.jacc.2023.05.024.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The relationship between omega-3 fatty acids and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the prospective associations of blood or adipose tissue levels of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with incident AF.

METHODS: We used participant-level data from a global consortium of 17 prospective cohort studies, each with baseline data on blood or adipose tissue omega-3 fatty acid levels and AF outcomes. Each participating study conducted a de novo analyses using a prespecified analytical plan with harmonized definitions for exposures, outcome, covariates, and subgroups. Associations were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis.

RESULTS: Among 54,799 participants from 17 cohorts, 7,720 incident cases of AF were ascertained after a median 13.3 years of follow-up. In multivariable analysis, EPA levels were not associated with incident AF, HR per interquintile range (ie, the difference between the 90th and 10th percentiles) was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.95-1.05). HRs for higher levels of DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA, were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.95), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96), and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87-0.99), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: In vivo levels of omega-3 fatty acids including EPA, DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA were not associated with increased risk of incident AF. Our data suggest the safety of habitual dietary intakes of omega-3 fatty acids with respect to AF risk. Coupled with the known benefits of these fatty acids in the prevention of adverse coronary events, our study suggests that current dietary guidelines recommending fish/omega-3 fatty acid consumption can be maintained.

PMID:37468189 | DOI:10.1016/j.jacc.2023.05.024

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

D-ORB: A Web Server to Extract Structural Features of Related But Unaligned RNA Sequences

J Mol Biol. 2023 Aug 1;435(15):168181. doi: 10.1016/j.jmb.2023.168181. Epub 2023 Jun 9.

ABSTRACT

Identifying the common structural elements of functionally related RNA sequences (family) is usually based on an alignment of the sequences, which is often subject to human bias and may not be accurate. The resulting covariance model (CM) provides probabilities for each base to covary with another, which allows to support evolutionarily the formation of double helical regions and possibly pseudoknots. The coexistence of alternative folds in RNA, resulting from its dynamic nature, may lead to the potential omission of motifs by CM. To overcome this limitation, we present D-ORB, a system of algorithms that identifies overrepresented motifs in the secondary conformational landscapes of a family when compared to those of unrelated sequences. The algorithms are bundled into an easy-to-use website allowing users to submit a family, and optionally provide unrelated sequences. D-ORB produces a non-pseudoknotted secondary structure based on the overrepresented motifs, a deep neural network classifier and two decision trees. When used to model an Rfam family, D-ORB fits overrepresented motifs in the corresponding Rfam structure; more than a hundred Rfam families have been modeled. The statistical approach behind D-ORB derives the structural composition of an RNA family, making it a valuable tool for analyzing and modeling it. Its easy-to-use interface and advanced algorithms make it an essential resource for researchers studying RNA structure. D-ORB is available at https://d-orb.major.iric.ca/.

PMID:37468182 | DOI:10.1016/j.jmb.2023.168181

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Understanding how health interventions or exposures produce their effects using mediation analysis

BMJ. 2023 Jul 19;382:e071757. doi: 10.1136/bmj-2022-071757.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:37468141 | DOI:10.1136/bmj-2022-071757

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Dealing with nonproportional hazards in coronary revascularization studies

Can J Cardiol. 2023 Jul 17:S0828-282X(23)01521-0. doi: 10.1016/j.cjca.2023.07.014. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The Cox proportional hazards model is one of the most popular statistical tools to model time to event outcomes without the need for specifying the hazards or survival time distributions. The Cox model requires that the ratio of the hazards of the occurrence of the outcome for any two individuals remain constant during the entire follow-up. Studies comparing coronary revascularization strategies, however, might be prone to violations of proportionality by the crossing of the hazard functions over time. Early increases in the risk of cardiovascular outcomes are commonly observed when comparing coronary artery bypass grafting versus percutaneous coronary intervention, while decreased risk might be observed later during the follow-up. The same is valid for comparisons between invasive versus conservative coronary revascularization strategies. In these situations, the statistical power of the Cox model is reduced, and hazard ratios might not be an informative summary measure of treatment effect. In this manuscript, we discuss methods to identify and account for nonproportionality. We illustrate the use of these methods in a case study, based on reconstructed data from a coronary revascularization clinical trial. Finally, we review the cardiovascular literature to estimate how the proportionality assumption has been reported in coronary revascularization studies recently.

PMID:37468120 | DOI:10.1016/j.cjca.2023.07.014

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The Sensitivity of Ultra-Widefield Fundus Photography versus Scleral Depressed Examination for Detection of Retinal Horsehoe Tears

Am J Ophthalmol. 2023 Jul 17:S0002-9394(23)00288-X. doi: 10.1016/j.ajo.2023.07.010. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Ultra-widefield (UWF) imaging is commonly used in ophthalmology in tandem with scleral depressed examinations (SDE) to evaluate peripheral retinal disease. Due to increased reliance of this technology in tele-ophthalmology, it is critical to evaluate its efficacy for detecting the peripheral retina when performed in isolation. Therefore, we sought to evaluate UWF imaging sensitivity in detecting retinal horseshoe tears (HST).

DESIGN: A retrospective clinical validity and reliability study METHODS: A single-institutional retrospective analysis was performed on patients at the Shiley Eye Institute, UC, San Diego. Those with HSTs seen on SDE and underwent treatment with laser were included in the study. 140 patients with HSTs in the right and/or left eyes met the inclusion criteria. Those with concomitant ruptured globes, retinal detachments and vitreous hemorrhages were excluded. A total of 123 patients with 135 HSTs were included in the final analysis. The primary outcome was the number of HSTs detected by UWF imaging. A secondary outcome was HST location. Sensitivity was measured with respect to HST location and statistical significance was calculated by Fisher exact testing.

RESULTS: 69 (51.1%) HSTs were visualized on UWF images and 66 (48.9%) were not visualized. The sensitivity of UWF imaging in capturing HSTs was 7/41 (17.1%), 8/25 (32.0%), 7/14 (50.0%) and 47/55 (85.5%) for the superior, inferior, nasal and temporal quadrants, respectively. Sensitivities among HST visibility and location were statistically significant (p < 0.001) CONCLUSIONS: Nearly half of HSTs were missed by UWF imaging. This study demonstrates that UWF imagin.

PMID:37468086 | DOI:10.1016/j.ajo.2023.07.010

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Investigation on the relationship between Eysenck personality type and the survival rate of traumatic amputated finger replantation based on preventive psychology

Prev Med. 2023 Jul 17:107624. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107624. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

This paper tried to observe the relationship between the personality of patients with different personalities and the survival rate of replantation of traumatic amputated finger, and analyzed the influencing factors. EPQ psychological quality scores of patients with different gender, average monthly family income and age were significantly different (P < 0.05). In terms of the internal and external tendency score of EPQ, there were statistical requirements for differences in the mean monthly income of patients from different families (P < 0.05). For the concealment degree of EPQ, there were statistical requirements for differences in gender, family income, education level and patient scores (P < 0.05). In terms of mental state, the scores were higher than the standard, whether from the perspective of obsessive-compulsive symptoms, or from the perspective of interpersonal sensitivity, hostility, paranoia and other dimensions, the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05). Patients with different personality types have different psychological problems after accidental amputation and replantation, which is directly related to the survival rate of postoperative finger amputation. Therefore, in order to effectively improve the survival rate of patients with finger amputation, the psychological condition of patients can be assessed, early detection and intervention of patients’ psychological problems, and appropriate intervention measures can be taken according to the personality characteristics of patients.

PMID:37468075 | DOI:10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107624

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Prebiotics and the risk of upper digestive tract and stomach cancers: the PrebiotiCa study

J Acad Nutr Diet. 2023 Jul 17:S2212-2672(23)01275-3. doi: 10.1016/j.jand.2023.07.008. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Fiber intake may lower digestive tract cancer risk, possibly by modulating the composition of gut microbiota. However, no data is available about the role of specific fiber fractions with prebiotic activity, e.g., inulin-type fructans (ITFs), fructo-oligosaccharides (FOSs) and galactooligosaccharides (GOSs), on the risk lower digestive tract cancer.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess the association between prebiotic intake and the risk of cancers of the upper digestive tract and stomach.

DESIGN: Within the PrebiotiCa study, data were derived from a network of Italian case-control studies conducted between 1992 and 2009. Participants’ usual diet was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). ITFs, and selected FOSs (nystose, kestose and 1F-β-fructofuranosylnystose) and GOSs (raffinose and stachyose) were quantified in several food products via laboratory analyses. Participants’ prebiotic intake was calculated by multiplying FFQ intake by the prebiotic content of each food item.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: Cases were patients admitted to major hospitals with incident histologically confirmed cancers; there were 946 cases of cancer of the oral cavity/pharynx, 198 of the nasopharynx, 304 of the esophagus, 230 of the stomach. Over 4,000 patients admitted to the same hospitals for acute non-neoplastic nor diet-related conditions were selected as controls.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcomes were oral and pharyngeal, nasopharyngeal, esophageal and stomach cancers.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED: The odds ratios (OR) and corresponding confidence intervals (CI) of the various cancers were derived using logistic regression models adjusted for major confounders and energy intake.

RESULTS: No association was observed between the intake of prebiotics and the risk of cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx, nasopharynx and esophagus. High raffinose intake reduced stomach cancer risk (OR for the third versus the first tertile 0.6, 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3-0.9); no other prebiotic was associated with stomach cancer.

CONCLUSIONS: The current study does not support a major role of prebiotic fibers on selected upper digestive tract cancers. The association between high raffinose intake and reduced stomach cancer risk needs further investigation in future studies.

PMID:37468063 | DOI:10.1016/j.jand.2023.07.008

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Founder variants in KRT5 and POGLUT1 are implicated in Dowling-Degos disease

J Invest Dermatol. 2023 Jul 17:S0022-202X(23)02419-3. doi: 10.1016/j.jid.2023.04.036. Online ahead of print.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:37468035 | DOI:10.1016/j.jid.2023.04.036