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Nevin Manimala Statistics

PubPredict: Prediction of progression and survival in oncology leveraging publications and early efficacy data

Pharm Stat. 2023 Jul 13. doi: 10.1002/pst.2321. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

In oncology/hematology early phase clinical trials, efficacies were often observed in terms of response rate, depth, timing, and duration. However, the true clinical benefits that eventually support registrational purpose are progression-free survival (PFS) and/or overall survival (OS), the follow-up of which are typically not long enough in early phase trials. This gap imposes challenges in strategies for late phase drug development. In this article, we tackle the question by leveraging published study to establish a quantitative link between early efficacy outcomes and late phase efficacy endpoints. We used solid tumor cancer as disease model. We modeled the disease course of a RECISTv1.1 assessed solid tumor with a continuous Markov chain (CMC) model. We parameterize the transition intensity matrix of a CMC model based on published aggregate-level summary statistics, and then simulate subject-level time-to-event data. The simulated data is shown to have good approximation to published studies. PFS and/or OS could be predicted with the transition intensity matrix modified given clinical knowledge to reflect various assumptions on response rate, depth, timing, and duration. The authors have built a R shiny application named PubPredict, the tool implements the algorithm described above and allows customized features including multiple response levels, treatment crossover and varying follow-up duration. This toolset has been applied to advise phase 3 trial design when only early efficacy data are available from phase 1 or 2 studies.

PMID:37439295 | DOI:10.1002/pst.2321

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Diabetic MAFLD is associated with increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and mortality in chronic viral hepatitis patients

Int J Cancer. 2023 Jul 13. doi: 10.1002/ijc.34637. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) can coexist with chronic viral hepatitis. MAFLD is a heterogeneous disease because the diagnostic criteria include various metabolic traits. We aimed to identify patients at high risk of poor long-term outcomes based on MAFLD subgroups in chronic viral hepatitis patients. We evaluated 63 273 chronic hepatitis B and C patients. Patient with a fatty liver index ≥30 was defined to have hepatic steatosis. MAFLD was defined as the presence of hepatic steatosis with any one of the following three conditions, overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes or ≥2 metabolic risk factors. The prevalence of MAFLD was 38.4% (n = 24 290). During a median 8.8-year follow-up, 1839 HCCs and 2258 deaths were documented in MAFLD patients. Among MAFLD patients, diabetes could identify patients at high risk of HCC and mortality, whereas overweight/obesity and metabolic risk factors did not. Compared with non-MAFLD patients, risk of HCC and mortality was significantly higher in diabetic MAFLD patients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.26-1.43 for HCC; aHR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.08-1.22 for mortality). Risk of HCC and mortality was significantly higher in diabetic MAFLD patients (aHR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.26-1.55 for HCC; aHR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.63-1.93 for mortality) compared with non-diabetic MAFLD patients. Diabetic MAFLD is associated with increased risk of HCC and mortality among chronic viral hepatitis patients. Our findings highlight the need for close surveillance and effective treatment for these high-risk patients to reduce HCC and mortality in patients with chronic viral hepatitis.

PMID:37439276 | DOI:10.1002/ijc.34637

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Comparison of auditory evoked potential thresholds in three species of sharks

J Exp Biol. 2023 Jul 13:jeb.245973. doi: 10.1242/jeb.245973. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Auditory sensitivity measurements have been published for only 12 of the more than 1,150 extant species of elasmobranchs (sharks, skates, and rays). As a result, there is the need to further understand sound perception in more species from different ecological niches. In this study the auditory evoked potential (AEP) technique was used to compare hearing abilities of the bottom-dwelling New Zealand carpet shark Cephaloscyllium isabellum, and two benthopelagic houndsharks (Triakidae), rig Mustelus lenticulatus, and school shark Galeorhinus galeus. AEPs were measured in response to tone bursts (frequencies: 80, 100, 150, 200, 300, 450, 600, 800, and 1200Hz) from an underwater speaker positioned 55cm in front of the shark in an experimental tank. AEP-detection thresholds were derived visually and statistically, with statistical measures slightly more sensitive (average∼4dB) than visual methodology. Hearing abilities differed between species, mainly with respect to bandwidth rather than sensitivity. Hearing was least developed in the benthic C. isabellum [upper limit: 300Hz, best hearing: 100Hz (82.3+1.5 dB re:1µms-2)]. Hearing was superior in the benthopelagic rig and school sharks [upper limit: 800Hz, best hearing: 100Hz (79.2+1.6 dB re:1µms-2) for G. galeus, and 150Hz (74.8+1.8 dB re:1µms-2) for M. lenticulatus]. The data are consistent with those known for ‘hearing non-specialist’ teleost fishes that only detect particle motion, not pressure. Further, our results provide evidence that benthopelagic sharks exploit higher frequencies (max.800Hz) than some of the bottom-dwelling sharks (max.300Hz). Further behavioural and morphological studies are needed to identify what ecological factors drive differences in upper frequency limits of hearing in elasmobranchs.

PMID:37439272 | DOI:10.1242/jeb.245973

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Real-world outcomes of mepolizumab treatment in severe eosinophilic asthma patients – retrospective cohort study in Slovakia

Biomed Pap Med Fac Univ Palacky Olomouc Czech Repub. 2023 Jul 10. doi: 10.5507/bp.2023.029. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Mepolizumab, a fully-humanized recombinant IgG1 kappa monoclonal antibody directed against IL-5, has shown improved asthma control and lung function in randomised controlled trials. The aim of this study was to evaluate real-world clinical experience in patients with severe eosinophilic asthma treated with mepolizumab in Slovakia.

METHODS: A retrospective, non-interventional study based on medical records of all adult asthma patients initiating mepolizumab between November 1, 2017 and January 31, 2019, completing 12 months of treatment. At baseline, general and clinical profile data were recorded 12 months prior to treatment. Primary and secondary endpoints described the results of mepolizumab use at 2, 6, and 12 months after the initiation and compared to baseline. Statistical testing of individual change (in each patient) in selected parameters was performed.

RESULTS: The cohort included 17 patients with particularly severe asthma at baseline, with frequent severe exacerbations (SE, median 5 [IQR 4-6]/patient/year), high blood eosinophil counts (median 0.6×109/L), frequent oral corticosteroid (OCS) dependence (82.35%), median dose 15 (IQR 7.5-20) mg/day, impaired lung function, and a spectrum of comorbidities. In a one-year follow-up, the data showed reductions in median SE (0 [IQR 0-1] patient/year, eosinophilia (median 0.175×109/L) and OCS maintenance dose (median 6.25 [IQR 2.5-20] mg/day), all statistically significant after 12 months on mepolizumab. Improved and stabilised lung functions throughout the cohort and a reduced incidence of nasal polyposis were observed.

CONCLUSIONS: The results provide clinical evidence of mepolizumab efficacy in a real sample of patients with severe asthma when administered in routine care settings in Slovakia.

PMID:37439266 | DOI:10.5507/bp.2023.029

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Role of Lung Lobar Sliding on Parenchymal Distortion During Breathing

J Appl Physiol (1985). 2023 Jul 13. doi: 10.1152/japplphysiol.00631.2022. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Sliding between lung lobes along lobar fissures is a poorly understood aspect of lung mechanics. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that lobar sliding helps reduce distortion in the lung parenchyma during breathing. Finite element models of left lungs with geometries and boundary conditions derived from medical images of human subjects were developed. Effect of lobar sliding was studied by comparing nonlinear finite elastic contact mechanics simulations that allowed and disallowed lobar sliding. Lung parenchymal distortion during simulated breath holds and tidal breathing was quantified with the model’s spatial mean anisotropic deformation index (ADI), a measure of directional preference in volume change that varies spatially in the lung. Models that allowed lobar sliding had significantly lower mean ADI (i.e. lesser parenchymal distortion) than models that disallowed lobar sliding under both simulations of tidal breathing (5.3% median difference, p = 0.008, n = 8) and simulations of lung deformation between breath holds at total lung capacity and functional residual capacity (3.2% median difference, p = 0.03, n = 6). This effect was most pronounced in the lower lobe where lobar sliding reduced parenchymal distortion with statistical significance, but not in the upper. Additionally, more lobar sliding was correlated with greater reduction in distortion between sliding and non-sliding models in our study cohorts (Pearson’s correlation coefficient of 0.95 for tidal breathing, 0.87 for breath holds, and 0.91 for the combined data set). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that lung lobar sliding reduces parenchymal distortion during breathing.

PMID:37439240 | DOI:10.1152/japplphysiol.00631.2022

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Half-Dose Tenecteplase or Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Older Patients With ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction in STREAM-2: A Randomized, Open-Label Trial

Circulation. 2023 Jul 13. doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.064521. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) guidelines recommend pharmaco-invasive treatment if timely primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is unavailable. Full-dose tenecteplase is associated with an increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage in older patients. Whether pharmaco-invasive treatment with half-dose tenecteplase is effective and safe in older patients with STEMI is unknown.

METHODS: STREAM-2 (Strategic Reperfusion in Elderly Patients Early After Myocardial Infarction) was an investigator-initiated, open-label, randomized, multicenter study. Patients ≥60 years of age with ≥2 mm ST-segment elevation in 2 contiguous leads, unable to undergo primary PCI within 1 hour, were randomly assigned (2:1) to half-dose tenecteplase followed by coronary angiography and PCI (if indicated) 6 to 24 hours after randomization, or to primary PCI. Efficacy end points of primary interest were ST resolution and the 30-day composite of death, shock, heart failure, or reinfarction. Safety assessments included stroke and nonintracranial bleeding.

RESULTS: Patients were assigned to pharmaco-invasive treatment (n=401) or primary PCI (n=203). Median times from randomization to tenecteplase or sheath insertion were 10 and 81 minutes, respectively. After last angiography, 85.2% of patients undergoing pharmaco-invasive treatment and 78.4% of patients undergoing primary PCI had ≥50% resolution of ST-segment elevation; their residual median sums of ST deviations were 4.5 versus 5.5 mm, respectively. Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction flow grade 3 at last angiography was ≈87% in both groups. The composite clinical end point occurred in 12.8% (51/400) of patients undergoing pharmaco-invasive treatment and 13.3% (27/203) of patients undergoing primary PCI (relative risk, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.62-1.48]). Six intracranial hemorrhages occurred in the pharmaco-invasive arm (1.5%): 3 were protocol violations (excess anticoagulation in 2 and uncontrolled hypertension in 1). No intracranial bleeding occurred in the primary PCI arm. The incidence of major nonintracranial bleeding was low in both groups (<1.5%).

CONCLUSIONS: Halving the dose of tenecteplase in a pharmaco-invasive strategy in this early-presenting, older STEMI population was associated with electrocardiographic changes that were at least comparable to those after primary PCI. Similar clinical efficacy and angiographic end points occurred in both treatment groups. The risk of intracranial hemorrhage was higher with half-dose tenecteplase than with primary PCI. If timely PCI is unavailable, this pharmaco-invasive strategy is a reasonable alternative, provided that contraindications to fibrinolysis are observed and excess anticoagulation is avoided.

REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT02777580.

PMID:37439219 | DOI:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.064521

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How healthy and affordable are foods and beverages sold in school canteens? A cross-sectional study comparing menus from Victorian primary schools

Public Health Nutr. 2023 Jul 13:1-30. doi: 10.1017/S136898002300126X. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Government policy guidance in Victoria, Australia, encourages schools to provide affordable, healthy foods in canteens. This study analysed the healthiness and price of items available in canteens in Victorian primary schools; and associations with school characteristics.

DESIGN: Dietitians classified menu items (main, snack, beverage) using the red, amber, green traffic light system defined in the Victorian government’s school canteens and other school food services policy. This system also included a black category for confectionary and high sugar content soft drinks which should not be supplied. Descriptive statistics, and regressions were used to analyse differences in the healthiness and price of main meals, snacks and beverages offered, according to school remoteness, sector (government, Catholic/independent), size, and socio-economic position.

SETTING: State of Victoria, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS: A convenience sample of canteen menus drawn from three previous obesity prevention studies in 48 primary schools between 2016-2019.

RESULTS: On average, school canteen menus were 21% ‘green’ (most healthy – ‘everyday’), 53% ‘amber’ (‘select carefully’), 25% ‘red’ (‘occasional’) and 2% ‘black’ (banned) items, demonstrating low adherence with government guidelines. ‘Black’ items were more common in schools in regional population centres. ‘Red’ main meal items were cheaper than ‘green’ (mean difference -$0.48 (95%CI -0.85, -0.10)) and ‘amber’ -$0.91 (-1.27, -0.57)) main meal items. In ∼50% of schools, the mean price of ‘red’ main meal, beverages and snack items were cheaper than ‘green’ items; or no ‘green’ alternative items were offered.

CONCLUSION: In this sample of Victorian canteen menus, there was no evidence of associations of healthiness and pricing by school characteristics except for regional centres having the highest proportion of ‘black’ (banned) items compared to all other remoteness categories examined. There was low adherence with state canteen menu guidelines. Many schools offered a high proportion of ‘red’ food options, and ‘black’ (banned) options, particularly in regional centres. Unhealthier options were cheaper than healthy options. More needs to be done to bring Victorian primary school canteen menus in line with guidelines.

PMID:37439210 | DOI:10.1017/S136898002300126X

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Thrombectomy for M2 Occlusions: Predictors of Successful and Futile Recanalization

Stroke. 2023 Jul 13. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.123.043285. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Patient-specific factors associated with successful recanalization in mechanical thrombectomy (MT) have been evaluated for acute ischemic stroke with large vessel occlusion. However, MT for M2 occlusions is still a matter of debate, and predictors of successful and futile recanalization have not been assessed in detail. We sought to identify predictors of recanalization success in patients with M2 occlusions undergoing MT based on large-scale clinical data.

METHODS: All patients prospectively enrolled in the German Stroke Registry (May, 2015 to December, 2021) were screened (N=13 082). Inclusion criteria for the complete case analysis were isolated M2 occlusions. Standard descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to identify factors associated with successful recanalization (Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction [TICI]≥2b), complete recanalization (TICI=3) and futile recanalization (TICI≥2b with 90-day modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score >2).

RESULTS: One thousand two hundred ninety-four patients were included, thereof 439 (33.9%) with TICI=2b and 643 (49.7%) with TICI=3. Five hundred sixty-nine (44%) patients had good functional outcome (90-day mRS score ≤2). In multivariable logistic regression, general anesthesia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.47 [95% CI, 1.05-2.09]; P<0.05) was associated with higher probability of TICI≥2b while intraprocedural change from local to general anesthesia (aOR, 0.49 [0.26-0.95]; P<0.05) and higher pre-mRS (aOR, 0.75 [0.67-0.85]; P<0.001) lowered probability of successful recanalization. Futile recanalization was associated with higher age (aOR, 1.05 [1.04-1.07]; P<0.001), higher prestroke mRS (aOR, 3.12 [2.49-3.91]; P<0.001), higher NIHSS at admission (aOR, 1.11 [1.08-1.14]; P<0.001), diabetes (aOR, 1.96 [1.38-2.8]; P<0.001), higher number of passes (aOR, 1.29 [1.14-1.46]; P<0.001), and adverse events (aOR, 1.82 [1.2-2.74]; P<0.01). Higher Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (aOR, 0.85 [0.76-0.94]; P<0.01) and IV thrombolysis (aOR, 0.71 [0.52-0.97]; P<0.05) reduced risk of futile recanalization.

CONCLUSIONS: In patients with M2 occlusions, successful recanalization was significantly associated with general anesthesia and low prestroke mRS, while intraprocedural change from conscious sedation to general anesthesia increased risk of unsuccessful recanalization, presumably caused by difficult anatomy and movement of patients in these cases. Futile recanalization was associated with severe prestroke mRS, comorbidity diabetes, number of passes and adverse events during treatment. IV thrombolysis reduced the risk of futile recanalization.

PMID:37439204 | DOI:10.1161/STROKEAHA.123.043285

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N-acetylcysteine Treatment Attenuates Hemodialysis Access-related Limb Pathophysiology in Mice with Chronic Kidney Disease

Am J Physiol Renal Physiol. 2023 Jul 13. doi: 10.1152/ajprenal.00083.2023. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study was to determine if treatment with N-acetylcysteine (NAC) could reduce access-related limb dysfunction in mice. Male and female C57BL6J mice were fed an adenine supplemented diet to induce chronic kidney disease prior to surgical creation of an arteriovenous fistula (AVF) in the iliac vascular bundle. AVF creation significantly increased peak aortic and infrarenal vena cava blood flow velocities, but NAC treatment had no significant impact indicating that fistula maturation was not impacted by NAC treatment. Hindlimb muscle and paw perfusion recovery and muscle capillary density in the AVF limb were unaffected by NAC treatment. However, NAC treatment significantly increased the mass of the tibialis anterior (P=0.0120) and soleus (P=0.0452) muscles post-AVF. There was a significant main effect of NAC treatment on hindlimb grip strength at post-operative day (POD) 12 (P=0.0003), driven by significantly higher grip strength in both male (P=0.0273) and female (P=0.0031) mice treated with NAC. There was also a significant main effect of NAC treatment on walking speed at POD12 (P=0.0447), and post-hoc testing revealed improvement in NAC male mice (P=0.0091). The area of post-synaptic acetylcholine receptors (P=0.0263) and motor endplates (P=0.0240) were also increased by NAC treatment. Interestingly, hindlimb skeletal muscle mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation was trending higher in NAC female mice but was not statistically significant (P=0.0973). Muscle glutathione levels and redox status were not significantly impacted by NAC treatment in either sex. In summary, NAC treatment attenuated some aspects of neuromotor pathology in mice with chronic kidney disease following AVF creation.

PMID:37439200 | DOI:10.1152/ajprenal.00083.2023

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Role of gut microbiota in perioperative neurocognitive disorders after cardiopulmonary bypass surgery in rats with humanized gut flora

Nan Fang Yi Ke Da Xue Xue Bao. 2023 Jun 20;43(6):964-969. doi: 10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2023.06.11.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether gut microbiota disturbance after cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) contributes to the development of perioperative neurocognitive disorders (PND).

METHODS: Fecal samples were collected from healthy individuals and patients with PND after CPB to prepare suspensions of fecal bacteria, which were transplanted into the colorectum of two groups of pseudo-germ-free adult male SD rats (group NP and group P, respectively), with the rats without transplantation as the control group (n=10). The feces of the rats were collected for macrogenomic sequencing analysis, and serum levels of IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α were measured with ELISA. The expression levels of GFAP and p-Tau protein in the hippocampus of the rats were detected using Western blotting, and the cognitive function changes of the rats were assessed with Morris water maze test.

RESULTS: In all the 3 groups, macrogenomic sequencing analysis showed clustering and clear partitions of the gut microbiota after the transplantation. The relative abundances of Klebsiella in the control group (P < 0.005), Akkermansia in group P (P < 0.005) and Bacteroides in group NP (P < 0.005) were significantly increased after the transplantation. Compared with those in the control group, the rats in group NP and group P showed significantly decreased serum levels of IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α and lowered expression levels of GFAP and p-Tau proteins (all P < 0.05). Escape platform crossings and swimming duration in the interest quadrant increased significantly in group NP (P < 0.05), but the increase was not statistically significant in group N. Compared with those in group P, the rats in group NP had significantly lower serum levels of IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α and protein expressions of GFAP and p-Tau (all P < 0.05) with better performance in water maze test (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: In patients receiving CPB, disturbances in gut mirobiota contributes to the development of PND possibly in relation with inflammatory response.

PMID:37439168 | DOI:10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2023.06.11