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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Postpandemic Recovery of Case Mix Index and Risk-Adjusted Mortality in US Hospitals

JAMA Netw Open. 2025 Nov 3;8(11):e2543398. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.43398.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted long-standing trends in hospital quality and patient safety, prompting questions about whether risk-adjusted outcomes have resumed their prepandemic trajectories.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether trends in risk-adjusted mortality and case mix index (CMI) among hospitalized patients in hospitals have returned to prepandemic trajectories.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective cohort study was a multicenter analysis that used the Vizient Clinical Data Base, which contains encounter-level administrative and financial data from more than 1300 hospitals in the US. The study included continuously reporting hospitals and examined inpatient discharges between October 2019 and March 2024. Data were analyzed between January and May 2025.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Quarterly estimates of CMI and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) (observed-to-expected ratio). Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to evaluate overall linear trends, and joinpoint regression was used to identify inflection points. Statistical significance was defined as P < .05, with slope estimates reported alongside 95% CIs.

RESULTS: Among 715 hospitals and 7 802 606 million inpatient encounters, the mean CMI increased from 1.70 in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2019 to 1.79 in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024 (difference, 0.09; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.17; P = .02). In OLS regression, CMI showed no significant overall linear trend (R2 = 0.006; P = .77). The mean SMR decreased from 1.00 in Q4-2019 to 0.80 in Q1-2024 (difference, -0.20; 95% CI, -0.32 to -0.08; P = .001), with a significant linear decline across the study period (R2 = 0.735; P < .001). Joinpoint regression identified a CMI inflection point in Q4-2020 (slope, 1.85; 95% CI, 0.73 to 4.14; P < .001 before; slope, -0.30; 95% CI, -0.62 to -0.09; P = .006 after) and an SMR inflection point in Q3-2021, after which SMR declined significantly by -3.17% per quarter (P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study of 715 US hospitals from 2019 to 2024, risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality declined significantly following the COVID-19 pandemic, resuming its prepandemic trajectory of improvement, while patient acuity as measured by CMI remained elevated. These findings suggest a new postpandemic baseline for patient acuity, whereas hospital mortality outcomes have returned to prior improvement trends.

PMID:41222931 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.43398

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Population Pharmacokinetics of Atogepant for the Prevention of Migraine

Clin Pharmacokinet. 2025 Nov 12. doi: 10.1007/s40262-025-01566-5. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Atogepant is an oral calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor antagonist developed for the preventive treatment of migraine. This work aimed to develop a population pharmacokinetic (popPK) model to support dosage regimen selection during the clinical development of atogepant in patients with episodic migraine (EM) or chronic migraine (CM) and to guide the dosing recommendations for regulatory approval.

METHODS: Pharmacokinetic data collected from 12 phase 1 studies, 1 phase 2b/3 study, and 1 phase 3 study in healthy participants and patients with EM were used to develop a popPK model that was externally validated with data from a CM phase 3 study and a phase 3 study in patients with EM for whom two to four classes of conventional oral preventive treatments have failed. The model was built and evaluated using nonlinear mixed-effect modeling and diagnostic assessments.

RESULTS: The final model featured three disposition compartments, with linear elimination from the central compartment and a sequential zero-/first-order lagged absorption process. Formulation, dose, food status, liver function, concomitant medication, and body weight were each found to have a statistically significant influence on atogepant’s pharmacokinetics. Absorption was affected by dose and formulation, the apparent central volume of distribution (V1/F) increased with body weight, relative bioavailability (Frel) modestly increased with dose, and a high-fat meal lengthened absorption lag time. Severe hepatic impairment and coadministration of itraconazole, quinidine, or a single rifampin dose decreased apparent clearance (CL/F) by ~37% and ~66%, ~29%, and ~13%, respectively, while coadministration of multiple rifampin doses increased CL/F by 1.82-fold. Frel increased by 1.95 and 2.4 fold with coadministration of itraconazole and a single rifampin dose, respectively, and decreased by ~25% with multiple rifampin doses. Mild/moderate renal impairment, coadministration of breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP) inhibitors, BCRP substrates and statins, age, and sex had no clinically relevant effect on atogepant pharmacokinetics. No statistically significant differences were observed in atogepant’s pharmacokinetics between healthy participants and patients with migraine.

CONCLUSIONS: The pharmacokinetics of atogepant are similar in healthy participants and patients with CM or EM. Dose adjustments owing to intrinsic factors of age, sex, race, and body weight, or owing to concomitant medications consisting of P-glycoprotein (P-gp) inhibitors, BCRP inhibitors, oral contraceptive components (ethinyl estradiol and levonorgestrel), famotidine, esomeprazole, sumatriptan, acetaminophen, and naproxen are not necessary. Atogepant’s popPK model provides a valuable tool for evaluating specific questions for patients, healthcare providers, and regulatory agencies. Integration into other modeling approaches has also aided in model-informed drug development decisions.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03855137 (EudraCT number: 2018-004337-32).

PMID:41222899 | DOI:10.1007/s40262-025-01566-5

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Development of a Semi-Mechanistic Population Pharmacokinetic Model for Predicting Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate and Tenofovir Alafenamide Exposure in Plasma and Cellular Matrices During Pregnancy and Postpartum

Clin Pharmacokinet. 2025 Nov 12. doi: 10.1007/s40262-025-01589-y. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Tenofovir (TFV)-based regimens are backbones of both HIV treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis during pregnancy. Multiple studies have shown up to one-third decreases in dried blood spot tenofovir-diphosphate concentrations during pregnancy among participants taking tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). Currently, there are no mechanism-based models describing the pharmacokinetics of tenofovir diphosphate (the active anabolite) in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of pregnant individuals receiving TDF or tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), and the mechanisms behind observed differences between dried blood spots and PBMCs remain unclear.

METHODS: To address this gap, we developed a semi-mechanistic model to simultaneously describe the pharmacokinetics of all clinically relevant TDF and TAF-derived moieties and conducted clinical trial simulations to compare TDF and TAF pharmacokinetics during pregnancy and postpartum.

RESULTS: The pharmacokinetics of plasma TAF and TFV were best described by one-compartment and two-compartment models, respectively, with first-order absorption. A transit compartment was included to reflect the slower elimination rate of plasma TFV after receiving TAF. Cellular matrix PBMC and dried blood spots were included using a biophase model. For TDF, plasma TFV apparent clearance increased by 24.9% and 13.1% during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy, respectively, compared with non-pregnant populations. In the postpartum period, plasma TFV apparent clearance in pregnant women was 9.3% lower than in non-pregnant women. The bioavailability for TAF decreased by 17.3% and 5.1% during the second and third trimesters, respectively, and increased by 18% during the postpartum period relative to non-pregnant women. In pregnant women, simulations showed that TAF maintains approximately five times higher tenofovir diphosphate concentrations in PBMCs compared with TDF during the second and third trimesters, despite a decrease in PBMC tenofovir diphosphate concentrations for both drugs. This finding is consistent with the higher PBMC loading effect of TAF observed in non-pregnant populations.

CONCLUSIONS: Our semi-mechanistic model provides a framework for understanding pregnancy-associated pharmacokinetic changes and supports future research to refine dosing strategies for HIV treatment and prevention in pregnancy.

PMID:41222898 | DOI:10.1007/s40262-025-01589-y

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Interactive Pluralism and Religious Tolerance: An Experimental Study of Muslim-Christian Dialogue in Kazakhstan

J Relig Health. 2025 Nov 12. doi: 10.1007/s10943-025-02489-y. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The aim of the research is to evaluate the possible effectiveness of interactive participation between Muslim and Christian participants. The study employed an experimental design including 120 participants, randomly assigned into two groups: an intervention (experimental) group (n = 60) and a control group (n = 60). The findings indicate a significant increase in tolerance levels among the experimental group, with an average rise of 25 points on a 100-point scale, whereas the control group exhibited minimal change. The between-group difference following the intervention was statistically significant (t = 12.87, p < 0.001). Participants who engaged in interfaith dialogue reported increased empathy, recognition of shared ethical values, and a decline in exclusivist attitudes. These results highlight the potential of structured interfaith engagement as an effective tool for fostering religious tolerance in multicultural societies.

PMID:41222878 | DOI:10.1007/s10943-025-02489-y

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One-Year Efficacy and Tolerance of Myofix Defocus Spectacles for Control of Myopia Progression

Ophthalmol Ther. 2025 Nov 12. doi: 10.1007/s40123-025-01270-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: To report the 1-year efficacy of Myofix Defocus spectacles, designed to control the progression of myopia in childhood.

METHODS: A total of 47 children with myopia aged 7-15 years were enrolled. Cycloplegic objective refraction (spherical equivalent refraction, SE) and axial length (AL) were measured at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Linear regression models were used to identify risk factors of 12-month changes in SE and AL. For comparison, two virtual control groups of children were included. Tolerance was assessed through a questionnaire at each follow-up visit.

RESULTS: Of the initial cohort, 11 participants were lost to follow-up after 6 months due to reasons unrelated to lens design (77.1% retention rate). Over 12 months, the mean SE change in all eyes was – 0.21 ± 0.30 D, and AL change was 0.19 ± 0.13 mm. Progression was significantly different in participants who reported good compared to poor compliance (p < 0.001). At the 12-month follow-up, participants with good compliance had a mean SE progression of – 0.12 ± 0.25 D and a mean AL change of 0.17 ± 0.11 mm. In virtual controls, the mean annual SE progression was – 0.47 ± 0.36 D, and AL change was 0.26 ± 0.17 mm (both p < 0.001). In compliant participants, Myofix Defocus lens demonstrated a 75% reduction in SE and 37% reduction in AL compared to virtual controls.

CONCLUSIONS: After 1 year, Myofix Defocus spectacles slowed myopia progression in children, demonstrating comparable efficacy to other defocus-incorporated spectacle designs. Greater compliance resulted in better treatment effect. Further long-term studies are warranted to confirm these findings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT07092072. Registered retrospectively on July 29, 2025.

PMID:41222872 | DOI:10.1007/s40123-025-01270-4

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

No “prevalence bias” in randomized controlled trials on colorectal cancer screening: the importance of clarifying the research question

Eur J Epidemiol. 2025 Nov 12. doi: 10.1007/s10654-025-01303-z. Online ahead of print.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:41222860 | DOI:10.1007/s10654-025-01303-z

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Comparative Pharmacokinetic Assessment of Once-Daily Extended-Release and Twice-Daily Amantadine Formulations in Healthy Male Subjects Under Fasting Conditions

Clin Drug Investig. 2025 Nov 12. doi: 10.1007/s40261-025-01485-0. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Parkinson’s disease (PD) affects a large population worldwide with millions of people losing motor function control. Although there is no recognized cure for PD, current medications aim to manage the symptoms and slow down the progression of the disease. Amantadine is one such treatment option that can be used in both early and late stages of PD. The current study aimed to assess the relative bioequivalence of two test prototypes (Ta and Tb) of amantadine extended-release (ER) oral formulation manufactured by Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Limited with the reference immediate-release (IR) formulation (R) of amantadine hydrochloride manufactured by Morton Grove Pharmaceuticals Inc.

METHODS: This was an open-label, balanced, randomized, three-treatment, six-sequence, three-period, single-dose once daily (OD) versus twice daily (BID), crossover relative bioavailability study in healthy adult male subjects under fasting condition with a total of 36 + 2 additional standby subjects meeting the eligibility criteria. The pharmacokinetic parameters including maximum concentration (Cmax), time to achieve Cmax (tmax), area under the plasma concentration-time curve from time zero to time t (AUC0-t), area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h (AUC0-24), area under the plasma concentration-time curve from time 0 to infinity (AUC0-∞), and half-life (t1/2) were assessed. Statistical analysis was performed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and ratio of least square means (LSM) (log transformed) was used to calculate the relative bioequivalence of the test drugs with the reference drug. Safety monitoring was done by considering adverse and serious adverse events during the duration of the study.

RESULTS: Both Ta and Tb formulations demonstrated similar systemic exposure to the reference product, meeting the criteria for bioequivalence within acceptable limits (80.00-125.00%). The ratios of LSM for log-transformed pharmacokinetic parameters (90% confidence interval [CI]) for Ta versus R were 100.02% (96.75-103.40%) for Cmax, and 107.27% (102.75-112.00%) for AUC0-t; and for Tb versus R were 93.92% (90.38-97.60%) for Cmax, and 101.12% (96.73-105.71%) for AUC0-t. There were no adverse or serious adverse events observed during the study.

CONCLUSION: These findings confirm the bioequivalence of the two test prototypes of amantadine ER formulation manufactured by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited with the IR BID formulation of amantadine manufactured by Morton Grove Pharmaceuticals Inc. The pharmacokinetic equivalence supports the use of OD amantadine ER as an alternative to the BID IR formulation, with the potential to improve patient adherence due to reduced dosing frequency.

PMID:41222848 | DOI:10.1007/s40261-025-01485-0

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Locoregional indicators of systemic spread in breast cancer: insights from standard-of-care imaging and ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT

Ann Nucl Med. 2025 Nov 12. doi: 10.1007/s12149-025-02124-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The primary role of 18F-FDG PET/CT at the initial diagnosis of breast cancer is to detect distant metastases. This study aimed to investigate locoregional characteristics associated with distant metastasis, based on clinicopathological factors, standard-of-care (SOC) imaging, and 18F-FDG PET/CT-including a novel PET parameter, subcutaneous/cutaneous uptake (SCU).

METHODS: This retrospective study included patients with newly diagnosed, unilateral invasive breast cancer who underwent pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT. Associations between distant metastasis and the following parameters-including age, SOC imaging-based clinical T and N stage, histology, histological grade, and subtype, as well as tumor SUVmax, subareolar SUV ratio (sSUVr), and subcutaneous/cutaneous uptake (SCU) on PET-were assessed using the Mann-Whitney U test, Fisher’s exact test, and logistic regression. Subgroup analyses were also performed after stratifying patients by locoregional clinical stage (I-IIIA vs. IIIB-C).

RESULTS: Among 197 women (mean age, 56 ± 14 years), distant metastasis was identified in 23 (11.6%). The prevalence of distant metastasis at each locoregional stage in SCU-positive versus SCU-negative patients was as follows: 0% vs. 0% for stage I; 22% vs. 1% for stage IIA; 25% vs. 14% for stage IIB; 25% vs. 13% for stage IIIA; 25% vs. 33% for stage IIIB; and 50% vs. 50% for stage IIIC, with a statistically significant difference observed at stage IIA. In the total cohort, univariate analysis showed that clinical T stage (p = .005), clinical N stage (p < .001), sSUVr (p = .002), and SCU (p < .001) were significantly associated with distant metastasis. In multivariate analysis, only clinical N stages (Odd ratio [OR], 6.5-32.6; p < .001-0.02) remained independent predictors. In the stage I-IIIA subgroup, SCU (OR, 4.86; p = .048) independently predicted distant metastasis, along with age (OR, 1.07; p = .01) and clinical N stages (OR, 8.40-30.26; p = .002-0.008). In the stage IIIB-C subgroup, none of the explanatory variables had significant associations with distant metastasis.

CONCLUSIONS: Age, clinical N stages, and SCU were associated with an elevated risk of distant metastasis in the stage I-IIIA disease. SCU may serve as a novel imaging marker of systemic disease and aid in the diagnosis of distant metastasis-particularly in patients with early-stage breast cancer, where such findings can critically influence treatment strategy.

PMID:41222829 | DOI:10.1007/s12149-025-02124-6

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Is the risk of brain metastasis and prognosis different in HER2-low breast cancer?

Clin Transl Oncol. 2025 Nov 12. doi: 10.1007/s12094-025-04106-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: We aimed to evaluate whether brain metastases, which are one of the most critical factors that have a poor prognostic value and make treatment difficult in breast cancer cases, differ in HER2-low breast cancer and to evaluate the prognosis of HER2-low breast cancer.

METHOD: This retrospective study included 1134 female patients diagnosed with breast cancer between June 2012 and June 2023 from two tertiary healthcare centers in Türkiye. Molecular groups were examined in six categories according to hormone receptor (HR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2) status (HR(+) HER2(-), HR(+) HER2-low, HR(+) HER2(+), HR(-) HER2(-), HR(-) HER2-low, and HR(-) HER2(+)).

RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 56.6 months (IQR 29.9-90.5). We detected HER2-low disease in 155 (13.7%) cases. Among the six molecular groups, the highest brain metastasis rate was observed in the HR(-) HER2-low group (22.2%) (p = 0.001). In the HR(+) HER2-low group, the brain metastasis rate was 3.8%, with no statistically significant difference (p = 0.13). In the multivariate binary logistic regression model, there was a 32.4-fold increase in the risk of brain metastasis for the HR(-) HER2-low group compared to the HR(+) HER2(-) group (OR: 12.4, 95% CI 6.70-156.2, p < 0.001). The analysis reveals no significant increase in risk for the HR(+) HER2-low group (OR: 1.68, CI: 0.42-6.67, p = 0.46). In the Cox’s regression model, the highest risk for poor BMFS was found in the HR(-) HER2-low group compared to the HR(+) HER2(-) group, with a 32.8-fold increased risk (HR: 32.82, CI: 7.80-138.3, p < 0.001). In the Cox’s regression model, the highest risk for poor DFS was detected in the HR(-) HER2-low group compared to the HR(+) HER2(-) group, with a fourfold increase in risk (HR: 4.05, CI 1.34-12.30, p = 0.013). Shorter BMSS times were observed in the triple-negative and HR(-) HER2-low groups (1.33 and 3.9 months, respectively; p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION: Our study found that the risk of brain metastasis and disease recurrence increased significantly in the HR(-) HER2-low group, and contrary to some literature data, the risk of brain metastasis in the HR(+) HER2-low group did not differ from the HR(+) HER2(-) group. Both in our study and in many existing studies in the literature, it seems that the HR(+) HER2-low group has a similar prognosis with the HR(+) HER2(-) group, and the HR(-) HER2-low group is in an intermediate form between the HR(-) HER2(+) and HR(-) HER2(-) groups. Recurrence with brain metastasis and general disease recurrence were more common in the HR(-) HER2-low group. The study’s retrospective design and the limited number of patients, especially in the HR(-) HER2-low group, along with potential underreporting in 1 + HER2 cases, are notable limitations.

PMID:41222828 | DOI:10.1007/s12094-025-04106-6

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Assessing PFAS mixture exposure and thyroid function in U.S. adolescents: insights from NHANES 2011-2012

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2025 Nov 12. doi: 10.1007/s11356-025-37134-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are persistent endocrine-disrupting chemicals widely detected in human serum. Epidemiological studies suggest that PFAS exposure may disrupt thyroid function by interfering with hormone production, transport, and metabolism; however, findings remain inconsistent, particularly regarding sex-specific effects. This study aimed to (1) examine associations between serum PFAS mixtures and thyroid hormone levels in adolescents and (2) identify mixture patterns and explore sex-specific associations using a nationally representative dataset. We investigated the association between serum PFAS mixtures and thyroid function markers-including thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), thyroid hormones, and thyroglobulin-among 12- to 20-year-olds in NHANES 2011-2012. Principal component analysis (PCA) identified three factors: Factor 1 (long-chain carboxylates: PFUnA, PFDA, PFNA), Factor 2 (sulfonates: PFHxS, PFOS, MeFOSAA, and PFOA), and Factor 3 (PFHpA). Multivariable linear regression estimated associations between PFAS factors and thyroid hormone concentrations. Higher exposure to Factor 1 was significantly positively associated with free T4 in males but negatively associated with total T4 in females. PFASs may alter hormone clearance or interfere with feedback regulation. Factor 2 exposure was negatively associated with total T4 and positively associated with TSH in males, with statistical significance. Greater exposure to Factor 3 was significantly associated with increased total T4 in males. Overall, exposure to Factors 1 and 2 was predominantly linked to lower thyroid hormone levels, whereas Factor 3 was positively associated with thyroid hormones. These findings highlight the importance of evaluating PFAS mixtures rather than individual compounds and suggest sex-specific thyroid hormone disruptions.

PMID:41222812 | DOI:10.1007/s11356-025-37134-4