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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Minimal Rickettsial Infection Rates and Distribution of Ticks in Uganda: An Assessment of the Seasonal Effects and Relevance to Tick-Borne Disease Risk in East Africa

J Med Entomol. 2022 Nov 2:tjac166. doi: 10.1093/jme/tjac166. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Tick-borne diseases (TBDs) pose a significant risk to humans and represent one of the major factors influencing readiness within the United States’ military worldwide. Additionally, ticks and TBDs constitute major animal health problems leading to economic losses at multiple levels affecting low- and middle-income countries the hardest. Tick control is frequently hampered by issues ranging from acaricide resistance to lack of data on tick distribution and infection rates. We conducted a cross-sectional study to assess tick species distribution, host use, and rickettsial pathogen infection rate of ticks in different areas of the Uganda Cattle Corridor. We identified 4,425 hard ticks (Ixodida: Ixodidae) comprised of seven species by morphological characters with 3,315 ticks collected from four locations during the dry season and 1,110 ticks from one location during the wet season. Rickettsial pathogen prevalence was assessed in ticks collected from two districts to determine the minimum infection rate compared across seasons, village location, and tick species. We found statistically significant differences in the abundance and distribution of tick species among districts in the dry season, host animal species, and the proportion of rickettsial positive pools between villages. Seasonality, village location, and tick species do not affect the minimum infection rate of rickettsial pathogens of ticks in Uganda, but village location affects the proportion of positive tick pools. These results indicate geographical and seasonal differences among pathogen-harboring ticks contributing to our understanding of the current distribution of ticks and TBDs in Uganda.

PMID:36321534 | DOI:10.1093/jme/tjac166

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Early-stage lung cancer associated with higher frequency of chest x-ray up to three years prior to diagnosis

Prim Health Care Res Dev. 2022 Nov 2;23:e66. doi: 10.1017/S1463423622000573.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Symptom awareness campaigns have contributed to improved early detection of lung cancer. Previous research suggests that this may have been achieved partly by diagnosing lung cancer in those who were not experiencing symptoms of their cancer. This study aimed to explore the relationship between frequency of chest x-ray in the three years prior to diagnosis and stage at diagnosis.

SETTINGS: Lung cancer service in a UK teaching hospital.

PARTICIPANTS: Patients diagnosed with lung cancer between 2010 and 2013 were identified. The number of chest x-rays for each patient in the three years prior to diagnosis was recorded. Statistical analysis of chest x-ray frequency comparing patients with early- and late-stage disease was performed.

RESULTS: One-thousand seven-hundred fifty patients were included – 589 (33.7%) with stage I/II and 1,161 (66.3%) with stage III/IV disease. All patients had at least one chest x-ray in the six months prior to diagnosis. Those with early-stage disease had more chest x-rays in this period (1.32 vs 1.15 radiographs per patient, P = 0.009). In the period 36 months to six months prior to lung cancer diagnosis, this disparity was even greater (1.70 vs 0.92, radiographs per patient, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: Increased rates of chest x-ray are likely to contribute to earlier detection. Given the known symptom lead time many patients diagnosed through chest x-ray may not have been experiencing symptoms caused by their cancer. The number of chest x-rays performed could reflect patient and/or clinician behaviours in response to symptoms.

PMID:36321523 | DOI:10.1017/S1463423622000573

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Relationships of Local Food and Physical Activity Environments With Overweight in 5- to 17-Year-Old Malaysian Children

Asia Pac J Public Health. 2022 Nov 2:10105395221135407. doi: 10.1177/10105395221135407. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Evidence on the associations between built environment and overweight in children outside developed countries is scarce. We examined associations between access to local food and physical activity environments and overweight in 5- to 17-year-old Malaysians in two states with differing overweight levels. Information on children was measured in the National Health and Morbidity Survey 2015 and combined with Geographic Information System-derived data on local food and physical activity environments. Access to the built environment was measured by presence and distance from child’s residence. Complete data were available for 880 children. Access to local food outlets and parks was higher and associated with higher occurrence of overweight in children living in the state with higher overweight prevalence. When adjusted for sociodemographic factors, higher presence of and shorter distance to convenience stores and parks were associated with overweight. Both built environment and children’s sociodemographic backgrounds should be considered when planning interventions to curb the overweight epidemic in Malaysia.

PMID:36321506 | DOI:10.1177/10105395221135407

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

How to scale up from animal movement decisions to spatio-temporal patterns: an approach via step selection

J Anim Ecol. 2022 Nov 2. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.13832. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

1. Uncovering the mechanisms behind animal space use patterns is of vital importance for predictive ecology, thus conservation and management of ecosystems. Movement is a core driver of those patterns so understanding how movement mechanisms give rise to space use patterns has become an increasingly active area of research. 2. This study focuses on a particular strand of research in this area, based around step selection analysis (SSA). SSA is a popular way of inferring drivers of movement decisions, but, perhaps less well-appreciated, it also parametrises a model of animal movement. Of key interest is that this model can be propagated forwards in time to predict the space use patterns over broader spatial and temporal scales than those that pertain to the proximate movement decisions of animals. 3. Here, we provide a guide for understanding and using the various existing techniques for scaling up step selection models to predict broad-scale space use patterns. We give practical guidance on when to use which technique, as well as specific examples together with code in R and Python. 4. By pulling together various disparate techniques into one place, and providing code and instructions in simple examples, we hope to highlight the importance of these techniques and make them accessible to a wider range of ecologists, ultimately helping expand the usefulness of step selection analysis.

PMID:36321473 | DOI:10.1111/1365-2656.13832

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

On the use of extreme value tail modeling for generalized pairwise comparisons with censored outcomes

Pharm Stat. 2022 Nov 2. doi: 10.1002/pst.2271. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

In randomized clinical trials, methods of pairwise comparisons such as the ‘Net Benefit’ or the ‘win ratio’ have recently gained much attention when interests lies in assessing the effect of a treatment as compared to a standard of care. Among other advantages, these methods are usually praised for delivering a treatment measure that can easily handle multiple outcomes of different nature, while keeping a meaningful interpretation for patients and clinicians. For time-to-event outcomes, a recent suggestion emerged in the literature for estimating these treatment measures by providing a natural handling of censored outcomes. However, this estimation procedure may lead to biased estimates when tails of survival functions cannot be reliably estimated using Kaplan-Meier estimators. The problem then extrapolates to the other outcomes incorporated in the pairwise comparison construction. In this work, we suggest to extend the procedure by the consideration of a hybrid survival function estimator that relies on an extreme value tail model through the Generalized Pareto distribution. We provide an estimator of treatment effect measures that notably improves on bias and remains easily apprehended for practical implementation. This is illustrated in an extensive simulation study as well as in an actual trial of a new cancer immunotherapy.

PMID:36321470 | DOI:10.1002/pst.2271

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Modeling RBE with other quantities than LET significantly improves prediction of in vitro cell survival for proton therapy

Med Phys. 2022 Nov 2. doi: 10.1002/mp.16029. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: For proton therapy, a relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of 1.1 has broadly been applied clinically. However, as unexpected toxicities have been observed by the end of the proton tracks, variable RBE models have been proposed. Typically, the dose averaged linear energy transfer (LETd ) has been used as an input variable for these models but the way the LETd was defined, calculated or determined was not always consistent, potentially impacting the corresponding RBE value.

PURPOSE: This study compares consistently calculated LETd with other quantities as input variables for a phenomenological RBE model and attempts to determine which quantity that can best predicts proton RBE. The comparison was performed within the frame of introducing a new model for the proton RBE.

METHODS: High-throughput experimental set-ups of in vitro cell survival studies for proton RBE determination are simulated using the SHIELD-HIT12A Monte Carlo particle transport code. Together with LET, z*22 , here called effective Q (Qeff ), and Q are scored. Each quantity is calculated using the dose and track averaging methods, while the scoring includes all hadronic particles, all protons or only primaries. A phenomenological linear-quadratic based RBE model is subsequently applied to the in vitro data with the various beam quality descriptors used as input variables and the goodness of fit is determined and compared using a bootstrapping approach. Both linear and non-linear fit functions were tested.

RESULTS: Versions of Qeff and Q outperform LET with a statistically significant margin, with the best non-linear and linear fit having a relative root-mean-square-error (RMSE) for RBE2Gy ± one standard error of 1.55 ± 0.04 (Qeff, t, primary ) and 2.84 ± 0.07 (Qeff, d, primary ), respectively. For comparison, the corresponding best non-linear and linear fits for LETd, all protons had a relative RMSE of 2.07 ± 0.06 and 3.39 ± 0.08, respectively. Applying Welch’s t-test for comparing the calculated RMSE of RBE2Gy resulted in two-tailed p-values of <0.002 for all Q and Qeff quantities compared to LETd, all protons .

CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that Q or Qeff could be better RBE descriptors that dose averaged LET. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID:36321465 | DOI:10.1002/mp.16029

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Impact and evaluation of an online culinary nutrition course for health, education and industry professionals to promote vegetable knowledge and consumption

J Hum Nutr Diet. 2022 Nov 2. doi: 10.1111/jhn.13109. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Poor diet including inadequate vegetable intake is a leading risk factor for non-communicable disease. Culinary and nutrition education provided to trainee and practising health and education professionals is an emerging strategy to promote improved dietary intake, including vegetable consumption. We evaluated the impact and feasibility of an online culinary medicine and nutrition (CM/CN) short course for health, education and vegetable industry professionals. The course aimed to improve participants’ skills, and confidence to prepare vegetables, knowledge of evidence-based nutrition information, and recommendations for improving vegetable consumption and diet quality.

METHODS: A pre-post study consisting of two separate groups participating in two course rounds, recruited practising professionals (n = 30) working in health; community, adult and/or culinary education; and the vegetable industry. Evaluation assessed diet quality, vegetable consumption barriers, cooking and food skills confidence, nutrition knowledge and process measures.

RESULTS: Seventeen participants (68%) completed the program. Pre to post intervention statistically significant increases in vegetables (M1.3, SD2.2), fruit (M1.6, SD3.1), and breads and cereal (M1.1, SD1.7) intakes were observed. Statistically significant increases and large effect sizes for mean food skill confidence scores (M8.9, SD 15.4, Cohen’s d 0.56) and nutrition knowledge scores (M6.2, SD 15.4, Cohen’s d 0.83) were also observed pre to post intervention.

CONCLUSION: The short online course was feasible and improved diet quality, food skill confidence and nutrition knowledge. Online CM/CN education for practising professionals represents a promising area of research. Future research involving a larger study sample and more rigorous study design such as RCT is warranted. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID:36321462 | DOI:10.1111/jhn.13109

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Can we use existing guidance to support the development of robust real-world evidence for health technology assessment/payer decision-making?

Int J Technol Assess Health Care. 2022 Nov 2;38(1):e79. doi: 10.1017/S0266462322000605.

ABSTRACT

Advances in the digitization of health systems and expedited regulatory approvals of innovative treatments have led to increased potential for the use of real-world data (RWD) to generate real-world evidence (RWE) to complement evidence from clinical trials. However, health technology assessment (HTA) bodies and payers have concerns about the ability to generate RWE of sufficient quality to be pivotal evidence of relative treatment effectiveness. Consequently, there is a growing need for HTA bodies and payers to develop guidance for the industry and other stakeholders about the use of RWD/RWE to support access, reimbursement, and pricing. We therefore sought to (i) understand barriers to the use of RWD/RWE by HTA bodies and payers; (ii) review potential solutions in the form of published guidance; and (iii) review findings with selected HTA/payer bodies. Four themes considered key to shaping the generation of robust RWE for HTA bodies and payers were identified as: (i) data (availability, governance, and quality); (ii) methodology (design and analytics); (iii) trust (transparency and reproducibility); and (iv) policy and partnerships. A range of guidance documents were found from trusted sources that could address these themes. These were discussed with HTA experts. This commentary summarizes the potential guidance solutions available to help resolve issues faced by HTA decision-makers in the adoption of RWD/RWE. It shows that there is alignment among stakeholders about the areas that need improvement in the development of RWE and that the key priority to move forward is better collaboration to make data usable for multiple purposes.

PMID:36321447 | DOI:10.1017/S0266462322000605

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Effect of metronidazole resistance on Helicobacter pylori eradication regimens

J Dig Dis. 2022 Nov 2. doi: 10.1111/1751-2980.13142. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Guidelines suggest bismuth-containing quadruple (BQT) or concomitant regimens (CT) as first line therapy in our geographic area. Both schedules contain metronidazole.

METHODS: We recruited naïve subjects with H. pylori infection in the period January 2020-December 2021, receiving either CT or BQT. Before therapy, patients collected a fecal sample using the THD fecal test device. H. pylori DNA was extracted and mutations rdxA/frxA and A2143G in genes for metronidazole and clarithromycin resistance were respectively investigated using RT-PCR with high resolution melting curve.

RESULTS: Ninety-six patients were enrolled: 29 received BQT and 67 CT. The overall eradication rate was 94.8%, in detail 100% for BQT and 92.5% for CT, respectively. Metronidazole resistance was found in 18 subjects (18.8%), while clarithromycin resistance in 19 (19.8%). All 18 patients with metronidazole resistance experienced eradication. Five had assumed BQT and 13 CT. The eradication rate in metronidazole-sensitive strains was 93.6%. Of these, 24 received BQT with 100% success, and 54 had CT with 5 failures (success 90.7%). Two failing patients were resistant to clarithromycin, and the remaining 3 were susceptible to both clarithromycin and metronidazole. We did not observe any statistical significance in the eradication rate between metronidazole-resistant and sensitive strains (100% versus 93.6%, respectively, p = 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that metronidazole resistance does not influence the eradication rate of BQT and CT regimens in our geographical area, even if such result needs to confirmed in a larger sample.

PMID:36321440 | DOI:10.1111/1751-2980.13142

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Empirical evidence of nonlinearity in bottom up effect in a marine predator-prey system

Biol Lett. 2022 Nov;18(11):20220309. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2022.0309. Epub 2022 Nov 2.

ABSTRACT

The strength of species interactions may have profound effects on population dynamics. Empirical estimates of interaction strength are often based on the assumption that the interaction strengths are constant. Barents Sea (BS) cod and capelin are two fish populations for which such an interaction has been acknowledged and used, under the assumption of constant interaction strength, when studying their population dynamics. However, species interactions can often be nonlinear in marine ecosystems and might profoundly change our understanding of food chains. Analysing long-term time series data comprising a survey over 37 years in the Arcto-boreal BS, using a state-space modelling framework, we demonstrate that the effect of capelin on cod is not linear but shifts depending on capelin abundance: while capelin is beneficial for cod populations at high abundance; below the threshold, it becomes less important for cod. Our analysis therefore shows the importance of investigating nonlinearity in species interactions and may contribute to an improved understanding on species assemblages.

PMID:36321432 | DOI:10.1098/rsbl.2022.0309