Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Predicting the impact of the third wave of COVID-19 in India using hybrid statistical machine learning models: A time series forecasting and sentiment analysis approach

Comput Biol Med. 2022 Feb 26;144:105354. doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2022.105354. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Since January 2020, India has faced two waves of COVID-19; preparation for the upcoming waves is the primary challenge for public health sectors and governments. Therefore, it is important to forecast future cumulative confirmed cases to plan and implement control measures effectively.

METHODS: This study proposed a hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Prophet model to predict daily confirmed and cumulative confirmed cases. The built-in auto.arima function was first used to select the optimal hyperparameter values of the ARIMA model. Then, the modified ARIMA model was used to find the best fit between the test and forecast data to find the best model parameter combinations. Articles, blog posts, and news stories from virologists, scientists, and health experts related to the third wave of COVID-19 were gathered using the Python web scraping package Beautiful Soup. Their opinions (sentiments) toward the potential third wave were analyzed using natural language processing (NLP) libraries.

RESULTS: A spike in daily confirmed and cumulative confirmed cases was predicted in India in the next 180 days based on past time series data. The results were validated using various analytical tools and evaluation metrics, producing a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.14 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.06. The NLP processing results revealed negative sentiments in most articles and blogs, with few exceptions.

CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest that there will be more active cases in the upcoming days. The proposed models can forecast future daily confirmed and cumulative confirmed cases. This study will help the country and states plan appropriate public health measures for the upcoming waves of COVID-19.

PMID:35240374 | DOI:10.1016/j.compbiomed.2022.105354

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Lack of Association Between 11 Gene Polymorphisms on Weight Loss One Year After Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass Surgery in Women

J Hum Nutr Diet. 2022 Mar 3. doi: 10.1111/jhn.13000. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Although effective, the impact of bariatric surgery on weight loss is variable, and little is known about the influence of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This study investigated the association of eleven SNPs related to obesity with weight loss one year after Roux-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery in female patients.

METHODS: This prospective study included 351 women with obesity. The genotypes for eleven SNPs (GHRL – rs26802; GHSR – rs572169; LEP – rs7799039; LEPR – rs1137101; 5HT2C – rs3813929; UCP2 – rs659366; UCP3 – rs1800849; SH2B1 – rs7498665; TAS1R2 – rs35874116; TAS1R2 – rs9701796; FTO – rs9939609) were determined using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and TaqMan assays. Anthropometric measurements were performed before and one year after RYGB surgery. To evaluate the factors that influenced the proportion of weight loss 1 year after surgery, beta regression analysis was used. The models were estimated using the SAS software GLIMMIX procedure. The level of significance adopted for the statistical tests was 5%.

RESULTS: The average percentage of total body weight loss in one year was 64.4 ± 5.8% and the median was 65.0%. In assessing the proportion of weight loss in one year after surgery, using univariate analysis (beta regression), no single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) influenced weight loss. And in the multiple analysis, with stepwise process of variable selection, no variable was significant to compose the multiple model.

CONCLUSION: The 11 SNPs investigated did not influence weight loss one year after RYGB surgery in female patients. This result indicates that individual behaviors and other factors might better contribute to the magnitude of loss weight loss in a short period after bariatric surgery. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID:35239993 | DOI:10.1111/jhn.13000

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

SARS-CoV-2 RNA in dental biofilms: Supragingival and subgingival findings from inpatients in a COVID-19 intensive care unit

J Periodontol. 2022 Mar 3. doi: 10.1002/JPER.21-0623. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Saliva, salivary glands, gingival crevicular fluid, and supragingival biofilms may harbor SARS-CoV-2 RNA. This observational study aimed to investigate the presence and load of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in supragingival, and subgingival biofilms obtained from intensive care unit (ICU) patients.

METHODS: A convenience sample, composed of 52 COVID-19+ participants (48.6 ± 14.8 years, 26.9% females), were evaluated for pre-existing comorbidities, number of teeth and periodontal data [visible plaque (VPI), bleeding on probing (BOP), periodontal probing depth (PPD), and attachment loss (AL)]. Supragingival and subgingival samples (SubDeep: four sites with the deepest PPD; SubRemain: remaining shallower sites) were analyzed by RT-qPCR with corresponding cycle quantification (Cq). Statistical analyses considered the individual (p = 5%).

RESULTS: Twenty-six participants tested positive for dental biofilms (Biofilm+) with 96.2% of them being positive for subgingival samples. Pre-existing comorbidities, number of teeth examined, VPI, PPD, AL, and BOP were similar between Biofilm+ and Biofilm-. SubDeep PPD (3.72±0.86), AL (4.34±1.33), and % of BOP (66.0±31.1) values were significantly greater compared to SubRemain values (2.84±0.48, 3.37±0.34, and 20.4±24.1, respectively). Biofilm+ Cqs showed no association with the periodontal condition. Cqs from Nasopharynx/Oropharynx (Naso/Oro; n = 36) were similar between Biofilm+ and Biofilm- participants. Length of time since ICU intake, last Naso/Oro RT-qPCR readings, onset of COVID-19 symptoms, and biofilm samplings were greater for Biofilm-.

CONCLUSIONS: ICU patients harbored SARS-CoV-2 RNA in supragingival and subgingival biofilms, irrespective of the periodontal condition and systemic viral load. The high number of positive patients highlights the need to better understand this habitat to provide adequate oral care. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

PMID:35239976 | DOI:10.1002/JPER.21-0623

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Global, regional, and national cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to alcohol consumption in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019

Cancer. 2022 Mar 3. doi: 10.1002/cncr.34111. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for a number of communicable and non-communicable diseases, including several types of cancer. This article reports the burden of cancers attributable to alcohol consumption by age, sex, location, sociodemographic index (SDI), and cancer type from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS: The Comparative Risk Assessment approach was used in the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study to report the burden of cancers attributable to alcohol consumption between 1990 and 2019.

RESULTS: In 2019, there were globally an estimated 494.7 thousand cancer deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 439.7 to 554.1) and 13.0 million cancer disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; 95% UI, 11.6 to 14.5) that were attributable to alcohol consumption. The alcohol-attributable DALYs were much higher in men (10.5 million; 95% UI, 9.2 to 11.8) than women (2.5 million; 95% UI, 2.2 to 2.9). The global age-standardized death and DALY rates of cancers attributable to alcohol decreased by 14.7% (95% UI, 6.4% to 23%) and 18.1% (95% UI, 9.2% to 26.5%), respectively, over the study period. Central Europe had the highest age-standardized death rates that were attributable to alcohol consumption(10.3; 95% UI, 8.7 to12.0). Moreover, there was an overall positive association between SDI and the regional age-standardized DALY rate for alcohol-attributable cancers.

CONCLUSIONS: Despite decreases in age-standardized deaths and DALYs, substantial numbers of cancer deaths and DALYs are still attributable to alcohol consumption. Because there is a higher burden in males, the elderly, and developed regions (based on SDI), these groups and regions should be prioritized in any prevention programs.

PMID:35239973 | DOI:10.1002/cncr.34111

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Global DNA methylation of WTC prostate cancer tissues show signature differences compared to non-exposed cases

Carcinogenesis. 2022 Mar 3:bgac025. doi: 10.1093/carcin/bgac025. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

There is increased incidence of prostate cancer (PC) among World Trade Center (WTC)-exposed responders and community members, with preliminary evidence suggestive of more aggressive disease. While previous research is supportive of differences in DNA methylation and gene expression as a consequence of WTC exposure, as measured in blood of healthy individuals, the epigenetics of WTC PC tissues has yet to be explored. Patients were recruited from the World Trade Center Health Program. Non-WTC PC samples were frequency matched on age, race/ethnicity and Gleason score. Bisulfite-treated DNA was extracted from tumor tissue blocks and used to assess global DNA methylation with the MethylationEPIC BeadChip. Differential and pathway enrichment analysis were conducted. RNA from the same tumor blocks was used for gene expression analysis to further support DNA methylation findings. Methylation data were generated for 28 samples (13 WTC and 15 non-WTC). Statistically significant differences in methylation were observed for 3,586 genes; on average WTC samples were statistically significantly more hypermethylated (p=0.04131). Pathway enrichment analysis revealed hypermethylation in epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT), hypoxia, mitotic spindle, TNFA signaling via NFKB, WNT signaling, and TGF beta signaling pathways in WTC compared to non-WTC samples. The androgen response, G2M and MYC target pathways were hypomethylated. These results correlated well with RNA gene expression. In conclusion, long-term epigenic changes associated with WTC dust exposure were observed in PC tissues. These occurred in genes of critical pathways, likely increasing prostate tumorigenesis potential. This warrants analysis of larger WTC groups and other cancer types.

PMID:35239955 | DOI:10.1093/carcin/bgac025

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Reliability of a digital system for models measurements in BBO grading: A pilot study

Dental Press J Orthod. 2022 Feb 28;27(1):e2219388. doi: 10.1590/2177-6709.27.1.e2219388.oar. eCollection 2022.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Currently, no method is considered effective for the evaluation of digital models in the Certification Examination of the Brazilian Board of Orthodontics (BBO), considering the parameters of the currently used manual method.

OBJECTIVE: Thus, the aim of this study is to verify the reliability of an evaluation method for digital models that could be used in the BBO exam, compared to the gold standard.

METHODS: Measurements were performed by five previously calibrated examiners. Samples of ten sets of plaster models of the final phase of orthodontic treatment were measured using a manual method (Objective Grading System, OGS). These models were digitized using a 3D scanner and exported to Geomagic Qualify software, in which the measurements were made with the proposed digital method. These measurements were repeated using five models, after fifteen days. The intra-examiner performance with this method was analyzed with a paired t-test, whereas the inter-examiner analysis was carried out with analysis of variance and Tukey’s test. To compare the manual and digital methods, a paired t-test and Pearson’s correlation analysis were performed.

RESULTS: A statistically significant difference was found. The results showed that, when compared to the manual method, the digital method was effective in measuring the OGS in four of the seven variables studied: Marginal Ridge, Overjet, Occlusal Contact, and Interproximal Contact. The variables Alignment, BL inclination, and Occlusal Relationship showed a great amount of dispersion in the findings.

CONCLUSION: Further studies are needed to develop an adequate digital methodology that can be used for all OGS variables.

PMID:35239942 | DOI:10.1590/2177-6709.27.1.e2219388.oar

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Prevalence of primary dysmenorrhea and associated factors in adult women

Rev Assoc Med Bras (1992). 2022 Jan;68(1):31-36. doi: 10.1590/1806-9282.20210341.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the prevalence and factors associated with primary dysmenorrhea in a sample of adult women.

METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out with women aged between 19 and 49 years from a city of northeastern Brazil. Sociodemographic, gynecological, and obstetric variables were assessed by questionnaires and interviews. Dysmenorrhea was measured by self-report, and the Numerical Pain Rating Scale measured the intensity of pain. Statistical analyses included χ2 test, ANOVA, and logistic regression.

RESULTS: The average age was 33.2±9.1 years and the prevalence of primary dysmenorrhea was 56% for the whole sample. The average duration of symptoms was 2.7±1.8 days and the mean intensity was 6.1±2.6. The previous cesarean section was associated with a higher rate of primary dysmenorrhea (PR=2.33; 95%CI 1.11-4.90) when considering the whole sample. Women who aged 25-39 years and are insufficiently active had higher rates of primary dysmenorrhea (PR=5.24; 95%CI 1.08-27.31).

CONCLUSION: Primary dysmenorrhea has a high prevalence in young adults, adults, and middle-aged women. Cesarean section and being physically inactive was associated with increased rates of dysmenorrhea among adult women.

PMID:35239934 | DOI:10.1590/1806-9282.20210341

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Orthostatic changes in blood pressure and survival in elderly cardiopaths

Rev Assoc Med Bras (1992). 2022 Jan;68(1):19-23. doi: 10.1590/1806-9282.20210199.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to analyze the association between orthostatic changes in blood pressure and mortality in elderly cardiopath patients.

METHODS: A cohort of 455 elderly cardiopath patients, monitored at a referral outpatient cardiology clinic in Pernambuco, Brazil, from October 2015 to July 2018. The exposure groups were formed according to their orthostatic changes in blood pressure following the requirements of the Brazilian Guidelines for Hypertension.

RESULTS: Orthostatic hypotension was present in 46 patients (10.1%), 91 had orthostatic hypertension (20%), and 318 had no orthostatic alterations (69.9%). There were 52 deaths during follow-up. The results demonstrated that there was no statistically significant association between orthostatic hypotension and overall mortality (HR 1.30; 95%CI 0.53-3.14; p=0.567) nor between orthostatic hypertension and overall mortality (HR 0.95; 95%CI 0.65-1.39; p=0.34). Survival in relation to the exposure groups presented no statistically significant difference (p=0.504).

CONCLUSION: There was a low frequency of orthostatic hypotension and a mild high frequency of orthostatic hypertension when compared with previous studies, and no association was observed with overall mortality or with the survival time of elderly patients with heart disease.

PMID:35239932 | DOI:10.1590/1806-9282.20210199

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Burnout syndrome in resident physicians of a Federal University

Rev Assoc Med Bras (1992). 2022 Jan;68(1):24-30. doi: 10.1590/1806-9282.20210241.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the frequency of burnout, global, and by dimension, in resident physicians of Federal University of Piauí, and to identify possible factors associated with the presence of the syndrome.

METHOD: This is a cross-sectional, observational, and descriptive study. Population: resident physicians in Federal University of Piauí’s medical residency programs (136 individuals). The frequency of burnout was investigated using the Maslach Burnout Inventory. Sociodemographic variables were evaluated through a questionnaire and their associations with the presence of the syndrome were tested.

RESULTS: A total of 67 (49.26%) residents answered the questionnaires. The burnout syndrome frequencies found were global=73.1%; EE=44.8%; DP=64.2%, and PA=47.8%. Statistically significant association was obtained between current year of residency and EE; between having children and PA; between current work routine and DP; and between the use of antidepressant/hypnotic medication and EE. Compared with residency programs, there was a difference in the EE dimension, which was higher among residents in internal medicine residents (88.9%) and pediatrics (83.3%). In the comparative analysis between global burnout levels and all variables evaluated, no associations were found.

CONCLUSION: Burnout syndrome was found in the majority of participating residents. There was an association between sociodemographic variables and the presence of isolated burnout dimensions, but not between sociodemographic variables and global burnout.

PMID:35239933 | DOI:10.1590/1806-9282.20210241

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

An easy and practical prognostic parameter: tumor-stroma ratio in Luminal, Her2, and triple-negative breast cancers

Rev Assoc Med Bras (1992). 2022 Feb;68(2):227-233. doi: 10.1590/1806-9282.20210979.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The stroma surrounding the tumor cells is important in tumor progression and treatment resistance, besides the properties of tumor cells. Studies on the tumor stroma characteristics will contribute to the knowledge for new treatment approaches.

METHODS: A total of 363 breast cancer patients were evaluated for the tumor-stroma ratio. The percentage of stroma was visually assessed on hematoxylin-eosin stained slides. The cases of tumor-stroma ratio more than 50% were categorized as tumor-stroma ratio high, and those less than 50% and below were categorized as tumor-stroma ratio low.

RESULTS: Tumor-stroma ratio-high tumors had shorter overall survival (p=0.002). Disease-free survival tended to be shorter in tumor-stroma ratio-high tumors (p=0.082) compared with tumor-stroma ratio-low tumors. Tumor-stroma ratio was an independent prognostic parameter for the total group of patients (p=0.003) and also axillary lymph node metastasis and tumor-stroma ratio was statistically associated (p=0.004). Also, tumor-stroma ratio was an independent prognostic parameter in node-positive Luminal A and B subgroups for overall survival (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION: Tumor-stroma ratio is an independent prognostic parameter that can be evaluated quite easily in all molecular subtypes of all breast cancers and does not require extra cost and time to evaluate.

PMID:35239887 | DOI:10.1590/1806-9282.20210979