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Comparison of SARIMA model and Holt-Winters model in predicting the incidence of Sjögren’s syndrome

Int J Rheum Dis. 2022 Aug 12. doi: 10.1111/1756-185X.14417. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prevalence trend of Sjögren’s syndrome in the Department of Immunology and Rheumatology of Nanjing Zhongda Hospital from January 2015 to December 2019, and compare the application of SARIMA model and Holt-Winters model in predicting the number of cases of Sjögren’s syndrome.

METHODS: All of the data from the Department of Immunology and Rheumatology of Nanjing Zhongda Hospital were collected. The number of monthly cases from January 2015 to December 2019 was regarded as the training set, and it was used to establish the SARIMA model and Holt-Winters model. The number of monthly incidences from January 2020 to December 2020 was regarded as the test set, and it was used to check the model performance.

RESULTS: The optimal model of SARIMA is ARIMA (0,1,1) (2,1,1)12 model, and the optimal model of Holt-Winters model is Holt-Winters addition model. It was found that the Holt-Winters addition model produced the smallest error.

CONCLUSION: Holt-Winters addition model produces better prediction accuracy of the model.

PMID:35962522 | DOI:10.1111/1756-185X.14417

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Small-fibre neuropathy in leprosy the role of in vivo confocal microscopy: A cross-sectional study

Indian J Dermatol Venereol Leprol. 2022 Aug 1:1-6. doi: 10.25259/IJDVL_810_2021. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Background Leprosy (or Hansen’s disease) continues to present considerable challenges regarding containment and early diagnosis. Leprosy is considered to be primarily a neural disease that first affects the sensory function of small fibres. Although the condition is well described in terms of clinical manifestations and histology, few studies have been undertaken to detect damage done to small-fibre sensory nerves. In vivo confocal microscopy is a useful tool for conducting a detailed evaluation of these structures, although its use in individuals affected by leprosy has still not been explored. Objective To evaluate in vivo confocal microscopy findings in Hansen’s disease patients and their association with clinical variables relating to this disease. Method A cross-sectional case-series type study was carried out between October 2019 and May 2021, in Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil. Socio-demographic and clinical data were gathered from 21 patients with leprosy. The douleur neuropathique 4 neuropathic pain questionnaire was used to evaluate pain. In vivo confocal microscopy of the cornea was employed to evaluate the small-calibre fibres. Findings were compared with those for a control group of 23 healthy individuals. Results In relation to clinical parameters, 90.5% of the patients were classified as “multibacillary” according to the World Health Organization criteria, and 70% as dimorphic or borderline, in accordance with the Madrid classification. Around 52.4% had received a diagnosis after one year or less of living with the disease, while 95.2% presented alterations in small-fibre sensory function and 35% presented such alterations in the large fibre. Neuropathic pain was present in 81% of the patients. In vivo confocal microscopy found no statistically significant difference in mean age and distribution according to sex between the Hansen disease patients and the control group of healthy individuals. The median-of-means for dendritic cells and volume of sub-basal nerve fibres in the control group were used to test for normality. Both eyes of all leprosy patients examined contained higher number of dendritic cells than the median value and a volume of sub-basal nerve fibres lower than the mean. These differences were statistically significant (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). Multibacillary individuals had a median number of dendritic cells two times that of paucibacillary individuals (P = 0.035). Limitations No association was found between the variables examined using in vivo confocal microscopy and clinical variables relating to small-fibre damage, the neuropathic pain questionnaire or alterations detected by the neurological examination. We believe, however, that Cochet-Bonnet esthesiometry of the cornea may have revealed such an association. Conclusion In vivo confocal microscopy is a useful diagnostic tool for detecting small fibre loss in individuals affected by leprosy and may constitute a useful addition to the range of tools available to help curb the effects of neuropathy in these patients.

PMID:35962495 | DOI:10.25259/IJDVL_810_2021

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Full automation of total metabolic tumor volume from FDG-PET/CT in DLBCL for baseline risk assessments

Cancer Imaging. 2022 Aug 12;22(1):39. doi: 10.1186/s40644-022-00476-0.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Current radiological assessments of 18fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) imaging data in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) can be time consuming, do not yield real-time information regarding disease burden and organ involvement, and hinder the use of FDG-PET to potentially limit the reliance on invasive procedures (e.g. bone marrow biopsy) for risk assessment.

METHODS: Our aim is to enable real-time assessment of imaging-based risk factors at a large scale and we propose a fully automatic artificial intelligence (AI)-based tool to rapidly extract FDG-PET imaging metrics in DLBCL. On availability of a scan, in combination with clinical data, our approach generates clinically informative risk scores with minimal resource requirements. Overall, 1268 patients with previously untreated DLBCL from the phase III GOYA trial (NCT01287741) were included in the analysis (training: n = 846; hold-out: n = 422).

RESULTS: Our AI-based model comprising imaging and clinical variables yielded a tangible prognostic improvement compared to clinical models without imaging metrics. We observed a risk increase for progression-free survival (PFS) with hazard ratios [HR] of 1.87 (95% CI: 1.31-2.67) vs 1.38 (95% CI: 0.98-1.96) (C-index: 0.59 vs 0.55), and a risk increase for overall survival (OS) (HR: 2.16 (95% CI: 1.37-3.40) vs 1.40 (95% CI: 0.90-2.17); C-index: 0.59 vs 0.55). The combined model defined a high-risk population with 35% and 42% increased odds of a 4-year PFS and OS event, respectively, versus the International Prognostic Index components alone. The method also identified a subpopulation with a 2-year Central Nervous System (CNS)-relapse probability of 17.1%.

CONCLUSION: Our tool enables an enhanced risk stratification compared with IPI, and the results indicate that imaging can be used to improve the prediction of central nervous system relapse in DLBCL. These findings support integration of clinically informative AI-generated imaging metrics into clinical workflows to improve identification of high-risk DLBCL patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered clinicaltrials.gov number: NCT01287741.

PMID:35962459 | DOI:10.1186/s40644-022-00476-0

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MTUS1 is a promising diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for colorectal cancer

World J Surg Oncol. 2022 Aug 13;20(1):257. doi: 10.1186/s12957-022-02702-2.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The morbidity and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) remain high, posing a serious threat to human life and health. The early diagnosis and prognostic evaluation of CRC are two major challenges in clinical practice. MTUS1 is considered a tumour suppressor and can play an important role in inhibiting cell proliferation, migration, and tumour growth. Moreover, the expression of MTUS1 is decreased in different human cancers, including CRC. However, the biological functions and molecular mechanisms of MTUS1 in CRC remain unclear.

METHODS: In the present study, data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database were analysed using R statistical software (version 3.6.3.) to evaluate the expression of MTUS1 in tumour tissues and adjacent normal tissues using public databases such as the TIMER and Oncomine databases. Then, 38 clinical samples were collected, and qPCR was performed to verify MTUS1 expression. We also investigated the relationship between MTUS1 expression and clinicopathological characteristics and elucidated the diagnostic and prognostic value of MTUS1 in CRC. In addition, the correlation between MTUS1 expression and immune infiltration levels was identified using the TIMER and GEPIA databases. Furthermore, we constructed and analysed a PPI network and coexpression modules of MTUS1 to explore its molecular functions and mechanisms.

RESULTS: CRC tissues exhibited lower levels of MTUS1 than normal tissues. The logistic regression analysis indicated that the expression of MTUS1 was associated with N stage, TNM stage, and neoplasm type. Moreover, CRC patients with low MTUS1 expression had poor overall survival (OS). Multivariate analysis revealed that the downregulation of MTUS1 was an independent prognostic factor and was correlated with poor OS in CRC patients. MTUS1 expression had good diagnostic value based on ROC analysis. Furthermore, we identified a group of potential MTUS1-interacting proteins and coexpressed genes. GO and KEGG enrichment analyses showed that MTUS1 was involved in multiple cancer-related signalling pathways. Moreover, the expression of MTUS1 was significantly related to the infiltration levels of multiple cells. Finally, MTUS1 expression was strongly correlated with various immune marker sets.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that MTUS1 is a promising biomarker for predicting the diagnosis and prognosis of CRC patients. MTUS1 can also become a new molecular target for tumour immunotherapy.

PMID:35962436 | DOI:10.1186/s12957-022-02702-2

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Sociodemographic and behavioural factors of adherence to the no-screen guideline for toddlers among parents from the French nationwide Elfe birth cohort

Int J Behav Nutr Phys Act. 2022 Aug 12;19(1):104. doi: 10.1186/s12966-022-01342-9.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Excessive screen time in infancy and childhood has been associated with consequences on children’s development and health. International guidelines call for no screen time before age 2 years, whereas in France, the most prominent guidelines recommend no screen before age 3 years. However, data are lacking on parental adherence to the no-screen guideline for toddlers and factors of adherence in France. Using data from the French nationwide Elfe birth cohort, we estimated adherence to the no-screen guideline at age 2 years and examined related factors, including sociodemographic characteristics, parental leisure activities and screen time.

METHODS: In 2011, 18,329 newborns and their parents were enrolled in 349 randomly selected maternity units across mainland France. At age 2 years, screen exposure of 13,117 toddlers was reported by parents in phone interviews. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, parental leisure activities and screen time were collected from both parents. Three patterns of parental leisure activities were derived by principal component analysis: literate (e.g.,reading), screen-based, and physical/artistic activities. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the associations of sociodemographic characteristics, parental leisure activities and parental screen time with adherence to the no-screen guideline for toddlers.

RESULTS: Overall, 1809/13,117 (13.5%) families adhered to the no-screen guideline for toddlers. Adherence was reduced with maternal age < 40 years, low parental education, single-parent household and parental migration status. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, adherence to the guideline was positively associated with a parental literate activity pattern (mothers: odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.15 [1.08, 1.22]); fathers: 1.15 [1.07, 1.23]) and negatively with a screen-based activity pattern (mothers: 0.73 [0.69, 0.77]; fathers: 0.81 [0.76, 0.87]). With each additional hour of parental screen time, mothers and fathers were less likely to adhere to the guideline (mothers: adjusted odds ratio 0.80 [0.77, 0.83]; fathers: 0.88 [0.85, 0.91]).

CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to the no-screen guideline for toddlers in France was low. Parental leisure activities and parental screen time are major factors of adherence to the no-screen guideline and could be considered in targeted public health interventions.

PMID:35962431 | DOI:10.1186/s12966-022-01342-9

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The association between social integration and neighborhood dissatisfaction and unsafety: a cross-sectional survey study among social housing residents in Denmark

Arch Public Health. 2022 Aug 12;80(1):190. doi: 10.1186/s13690-022-00945-9.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Social integration and perceived neighborhood environment are recognized as important social determinants of health. However, little is known about the association between social integration and perceived neighborhood environment among underrepresented population groups, such as residents in disadvantaged neighborhoods, in public health research. The aim of this study is to: 1) Describe the levels of social integration and 2) Investigate the association between social integration and neighborhood dissatisfaction and unsafety among middle-aged and older social housing residents.

METHODS: A multilingual face-to-face interviewer-administrated survey questionnaire was conducted among 206 residents aged 45 years and above (response rate: 34.1%) of various nationalities in disadvantaged socioeconomic positions in a social housing area in Denmark. The assessment of social integration was based on cohabitation status, frequency of face-to-face and non-face-to-face interaction with social relations and participation in local association activities. Neighborhood dissatisfaction measured the level of dissatisfaction with the neighborhood, and neighborhood unsafety assessed the level of unsafety being outdoors in the neighborhood. Descriptive statistics were conducted to illustrate respondent characteristics and the distribution of social integration among the study population. Logistic regression models were applied to analyze associations between social integration and neighborhood dissatisfaction and unsafety, adjusted for age, sex, country of origin, educational attainment and employment status.

RESULTS: In total, 23.8% of the respondents reported low levels of social integration. A medium level of social integration was associated with higher odds of neighborhood dissatisfaction (OR: 2.36; 95% CI: 1.04-5.38) compared to the highest level of integration. A low frequency of face-to-face interaction was associated with higher odds of neighborhood dissatisfaction (OR: 2.65; 95% CI: 1.16-6.06) and neighborhood unsafety (OR: 2.41; 95% CI: 1.04-5.57) compared to the highest frequency of face-to-face interaction.

CONCLUSIONS: Almost one-fourth of respondents reported low levels of social integration. A medium level of social integration was associated with neighborhood dissatisfaction. A low frequency of face-to-face interaction was associated with neighborhood dissatisfaction and unsafety. The results suggest that targeted health promotion interventions designed to foster face-to-face interaction, hold potential to reduce neighborhood dissatisfaction and unsafety among residents in disadvantaged neighborhoods.

PMID:35962422 | DOI:10.1186/s13690-022-00945-9

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iPACK block (local anesthetic infiltration of the interspace between the popliteal artery and the posterior knee capsule) added to the adductor canal blocks versus the adductor canal blocks in the pain management after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review and meta-analysis

J Orthop Surg Res. 2022 Aug 12;17(1):387. doi: 10.1186/s13018-022-03272-5.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Several studies have suggested that the addition of iPACK block (the popliteal artery and the posterior knee capsule have been given interspace local anesthetic infiltration) might get better analgesia than adductor canal block (ACB) only after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). This paper compiles all available evidence on the effect of two analgesia regimens (ACB and iPACK + ACB) involving all sides.

METHODS: We searched in eight major databases for all clinical trials discussing the effect of two analgesia regimens after TKA. Statistical analyses were conducted by Stata and RevMan Software. In addition, we performed GOSH analysis, subgroup analysis, meta-regression analysis to study the source of heterogeneity. Publication bias was checked using Egger’s test. Trim-and-fill analysis was applied in terms of sensitivity analysis of the results.

RESULTS: There are fourteen eligible studies for our meta-analysis. There are significant differences between the two groups in VAS score at rest and with activity, and the VAS scores were lower in the ACB + iPACK Group (VAS scores at rest: 95%CI [- 0.96, – 0.53], P < 0.00001. VAS scores with activity: 95%CI [- 0.79, – 0.43], P < 0.00001). A differential was discovered to support the ACB + iPACK Group when comparing the two groups on postoperative cumulative morphine consumption (95%CI: [- 0.52, – 0.14], P: 0.0007). The patients in the group of ACB + iPACK performed better in the postoperative range of knee movement (95%CI: [5.18, 10.21], P < 0.00001) and walking distance (95%CI: [0.15, 0.41], P < 0.00001). There were significant differences between the patients in the ACB + iPACK Group and ACB Group on the TUG test of POD1 and POD2. We found that patients’ hospital stays in the ACB + iPACK Group were significantly shorter than in the ACB Group (95%CI: [- 0.78, – 0.16], P: 0.003). No difference was found between the patients in the ACB + iPACK Group and ACB Group on postoperative quadriceps muscle strength and the incidence of PONV.

CONCLUSION: The addition of iPACK lowers postoperative VAS scores, cumulative morphine consumption, and hospital stays. Meanwhile, the addition of iPACK improves postoperative patients’ activity performance without extra side effects. iPACK combined with ACB proves to be a suitable pain management technique after TKA.

PMID:35962410 | DOI:10.1186/s13018-022-03272-5

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Psychometric validation of the death literacy index and benchmarking of death literacy level in a representative uk population sample

BMC Palliat Care. 2022 Aug 13;21(1):145. doi: 10.1186/s12904-022-01032-0.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Death literacy includes the knowledge and skills that people need to gain access to, understand, and make informed choices about end of life and death care options. The Death Literacy Index (DLI) can be used to determine levels of death literacy across multiple contexts, including at a community/national level, and to evaluate the outcome of public health interventions. As the first measure of death literacy, the DLI has potential to significantly advance public health approaches to palliative care. The current study aimed to provide the first assessment of the psychometric properties of the DLI in the UK, alongside population-level benchmarks.

METHODS: A large nationally representative sample of 399 participants, stratified by age, gender and ethnicity, were prospectively recruited via an online panel. The factor structure of the 29-item DLI was investigated using confirmatory factor analysis. Internal consistency of subscales was assessed alongside interpretability. Hypothesised associations with theoretically related/unrelated constructs were examined to assess convergent and discriminant validity. Descriptive statistics were used to provide scaled mean scores on the DLI.

RESULTS: Confirmatory factor analysis supported the original higher-order 8 factor structure, with the best fitting model including one substituted item developed specifically for UK respondents. The subscales reported high internal consistency. Good convergent and discriminant validity was evidenced in relation to objective knowledge of the death system, death competency, actions relating to death and dying in the community and loneliness. Good known-groups validity was achieved with respondents with professional/lived experience of end-of-life care reporting higher levels of death literacy. There was little socio-demographic variability in DLI scores. Scaled population-level mean scores were near the mid-point of DLI subscale/total, with comparatively high levels of experiential knowledge and the ability to talk about death and dying.

CONCLUSIONS: Psychometric evaluations suggest the DLI is a reliable and valid measure of death literacy for use in the UK, with population level benchmarks suggesting the UK population could strengthen capacity in factual knowledge and accessing help. International validation of the DLI represents a significant advancement in outcome measurement for public health approaches to palliative care. PRE-REGISTRATION: https://osf.io/fwxkh/.

PMID:35962383 | DOI:10.1186/s12904-022-01032-0

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High triglyceride-glucose index in young adulthood is associated with incident cardiovascular disease and mortality in later life: insight from the CARDIA study

Cardiovasc Diabetol. 2022 Aug 12;21(1):155. doi: 10.1186/s12933-022-01593-7.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the associations between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index in young adulthood with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality.

METHODS: We included 4,754 participants from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study at baseline. The TyG index was calculated as ln (fasting TG [mg/dl] × fasting glucose [mg/dl]/2), and the TyG index trajectories were identified by using the latent class growth mixture model. We evaluated the association between the baseline and trajectories of the TyG index with incident CVD events and all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. The added value of the TyG index included in pooled cohort equations for CVD prediction was also analyzed.

RESULTS: Among 4754 participants (mean age 24.72 years, 45.8% male, 51.2% black), there were 158 incident CVD events and 246 all-cause mortality during a median 25 years follow-up. After adjusting for multiple confounding variables, each one-unit increase in the TyG index was associated with a 96% higher CVD risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44-2.66) and a 85% higher all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.85, 95% CI 1.45-2.36). Three distinct trajectories of the TyG index along the follow-up duration were identified: low (44.0%), moderate (45.5%), and high (10.5%). Compared with those participants in the low TyG index trajectory group, those in the high TyG index trajectory group had a greater risk of CVD events (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.34-4.12) and all-cause mortality (HR 3.04, 95% CI 1.83-5.07). The addition of baseline TyG index to pooled cohort equations for CVD improved the C-statistics (P < 0.001), integrated discrimination improvement value (P < 0.001), and category-free net reclassification improvement value (P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS: Higher baseline TyG index levels and higher long-term trajectory of TyG index during young adulthood were significantly associated with an increased risk of incident CVD events and all-cause mortality in later life.

PMID:35962377 | DOI:10.1186/s12933-022-01593-7

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Antimicrobial resistance of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolated from patients attending sexually transmitted infection clinics in Urban Hospitals, Lusaka, Zambia

BMC Infect Dis. 2022 Aug 12;22(1):688. doi: 10.1186/s12879-022-07674-y.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Neisseria gonorrhoeae, the causative agent for sexually transmitted infection (STI) gonorrhoea, has emerged with a significant public health impact on acquiring resistance to antimicrobials available for treatment. The resistance of N. gonorrhoeae limit treatment options and contributed to high morbidity associated with gonorrhoea. Data on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) profiles in N. gonorrhoeae is scares in Zambia. This study aimed to determine the antibiotic susceptibilities in N. gonorrhoeae isolates from Lusaka, Zambia.

METHODS: A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted on 630 STI patients who presented with urethral or vaginal discharge from 2019 to 2020. Urethral and endocervical secretions were cultured on Modified Thayer Martin agar and incubated at 36 °C ± 1 °C in 5% CO2 for 24 h. Identification of N. gonorrhoeae isolates was achieved by Gram stain, oxidase, nitrocefin disk, BactiCard Neisseria, and Viteck® Compact. The AMR profiles were determined using E-test. Statistical significant was determined by Pearson’s Chi-square test, Mann-Whitney U test, or logistic regression with p-values of < 0.05 indicating significance.

RESULTS: A total of 630 patients were recruited of which 46% (290/630) with the median of 29 years and interquartile range (IQR) of 19-39 years were male. The median of the females was 26 years and IQR of 15-37 years. Neisseria gonorrhoeae was isolated from 19.4% (122/630) patients of which 72.9% (89/122) were male, with highest prevalence of isolation in the age category of 25-34 years. The prevalence of resistance was high to penicillin (85.2%), tetracycline (68.9%) and ciprofloxacin (59.8%) with MIC90 of 32 µg/mL, 8 µg/mL, and 8 µg/mL respectively. The isolates had reduced susceptibility to cefixime (1.6%), spectinomycin (4.9%) and (4.9%) for azithromycin. All isolates were susceptible to ceftriaxone. Risk factors associated with AMR were douching in females (AOR 6.69, 95% CI; 1.11-40.31, p = 0.039), female gender (AOR 7.64, 95% CI; 1.11-52.33, p = 0.048), HIV-positivity (AOR 26.59, 95% CI; 3.67-192.7, p = 0.005), no condom use or unprotected sex (AOR 5.48, 95% CI; 1.17-22.75 p = 0.026), sex trading (AOR 4.19, 95% CI; 1.55-11.33, p = 0.010), and over-counter treatment of ciprofloxacin (AOR 3.44, 95% CI; 1.17-22.75, p = 0.023).

CONCLUSION: The N. gonorrhoeae resistance to penicillin, tetracycline and ciprofloxacin was high necessitating revision of the treatment guidelines. However, no resistance to ceftriaxone was detected. Therefore, monitoring of antibiotic resistance remains critical in Zambia.

PMID:35962370 | DOI:10.1186/s12879-022-07674-y