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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Estimating the tuberculosis incidence using a SARIMAX-NNARX hybrid model by integrating meteorological factors in Qinghai Province, China

Int J Biometeorol. 2022 Oct 21. doi: 10.1007/s00484-022-02385-0. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Tuberculosis (TB) is recognized as being a major public health concern owing to its increase in Qinghai, China. In this study, we aimed to estimate the long-term effects of meteorological variables on TB incidence and construct an advanced hybrid model with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and a neural network nonlinear autoregression (SARIMAX-NNARX) by integrating meteorological factors and evaluating the model fitting and prediction effect. During 2005-2017, TB experienced an upward trend with obvious periodic and seasonal characteristics, peaking in spring and winter. The results showed that TB incidence was positively correlated with average relative humidity (ARH) with a 2-month lag (β = 1.889, p = 0.003), but negatively correlated with average atmospheric pressure (AAP) with a 1-month lag (β = – 1.633, p = 0.012), average temperature (AT) with a 2-month lag (β = – 0.093, p = 0.027), and average wind speed (AWS) with a 0-month lag (β = – 13.221, p = 0.033), respectively. The SARIMA (3,1,0)(1,1,1)12, SARIMAX(3,1,0)(1,1,1)12, and SARIMAX(3,1,0)(1,1,1)12-NNARX(15,3) were considered preferred models based on the evaluation criteria. Of them, the SARIMAX-NNARX technique had smaller error values than the SARIMA and SARIMAX models in both fitting and forecasting aspects. The sensitivity analysis also revealed the robustness of the mixture forecasting model. Therefore, the SARIMAX-NNARX model by integrating meteorological variables can be used as an accurate method for forecasting the epidemic trends which would be great importance for TB prevention and control in the coming periods in Qinghai.

PMID:36271168 | DOI:10.1007/s00484-022-02385-0

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Mobile trace elements in sediments from lakes Hawassa, Koka, and Ziway in the Ethiopian Rift Valley

Environ Monit Assess. 2022 Oct 21;195(1):11. doi: 10.1007/s10661-022-10512-y.

ABSTRACT

The present work focuses on total concentrations of trace elements such as chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), arsenic (As), selenium (Se), cadmium (Cd), and lead (Pb) and their operationally defined speciation in surface sediments from three Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes (Hawassa, Koka, and Ziway). Total concentrations were determined using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). A six-step sequential extraction was also applied to evaluate the mobilization potential of these elements. Compared with the consensus-based sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) developed for freshwater ecosystems, the total Zn concentration in sediments from Lakes Hawassa and Ziway, as well as Cr, Ni, and Zn in sediments from Lake Koka, was higher than the probable effect concentration (PEC), suggesting that these elements could have a negative effect on benthic organisms. The sequential extraction results showed that Cd, Mn, and Se were to a certain extent associated with the reversible fractions (F1-F3) in sediments, and thereby more mobile than the other investigated trace elements. Predictions of mobility of trace elements using the distribution coefficients (Kd) values were also in agreement with the sequential extraction results. Furthermore, multivariate statistical analyses showed that redox-sensitive fractions (F4 and F6) and the residual fraction (F7) were the dominant factors controlling most trace element mobility. Finally, applying the Risk Assessment Code (RAC) classification system, results showed that Mn in Lake Koka could pose a high risk, while Cd and Mn in Lake Hawassa as well as Cd, Mn, and Se in Lake Ziway sediments could pose medium risk to benthic organisms.

PMID:36271163 | DOI:10.1007/s10661-022-10512-y

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Failure rates and patient-reported outcomes of revision of total ankle arthroplasty

Arch Orthop Trauma Surg. 2022 Oct 21. doi: 10.1007/s00402-022-04657-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Despite the increasing number of revision total ankle arthroplasty (TAA), the literature on indications, surgical options, and outcomes is limited. This study reports on failure rates and patient-reported outcomes (PROM) for a cohort of 122 patients who underwent revision of TAA.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective review of revision TAA between 2006 and 2020 was performed at one institution. Patient’s demographics and different surgical procedures were analyzed with particular attention to comparing polyethylene exchange with revision of both metallic components and to additional interventions for axis correction. Failure rates and the European Foot and Ankle Society (EFAS) score were collected. The average follow-up period was 70.37 ± 46.76 months.

RESULTS: 122 patients were treated with an exchange procedure. The surgery included 69 polyethylene exchanges, 12 revisions of one metallic component, and 41 revisions of both metallic components. The overall failure rate was 14.75%. The EFAS score, completed by 94 of the 122 patients, was used to evaluate clinical outcomes. Median EFAS score was 12.51 ± 5.53, and median EFAS sports score was 2.97 ± 3.04. Revision rates after polyethylene exchange were significantly higher than after exchanging both metallic components (p value = 0.03), while the EFAS score showed slightly better results in patients treated with polyethylene exchange. Adding procedures to induce axis correction led to significantly lower revision rates (p value = 0.03), and the EFAS score was also improved but without statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS: The high failure rate of polyethylene exchange indicates that the intervention does not address the actual cause of failed TAA in many cases. Additional axis correction should be considered more frequently. If the underlying issues of prosthesis failure can be identified and sufficiently addressed, the results of revision surgery are likely to improve.

PMID:36271162 | DOI:10.1007/s00402-022-04657-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Comparison of ART outcome in patients with poor ovarian response according to POSEIDON criteria

Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 21;12(1):17723. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-22859-w.

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to evaluate whether the patient-oriented strategies encompassing individualized oocyte number (POSEIDON) criteria can reflect the prognosis of controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) by comparing the results of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) between four POSEIDON and normal responder (NR) groups. In total, 225 patients were included in this retrospective observational study. The patients underwent various COS protocols and in vitro fertilization or intracytoplasmic sperm injection, followed by fresh or frozen embryo transfer. Based on their clinical and demographic data, patients were divided into four groups according to the POSEIDON classification, and their ART outcomes were evaluated. Statistical analyses were performed using R version 4.0.5, and a p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant. The NR group had the highest number of total oocytes retrieved and total embryos obtained, as well as the best ART outcome in terms of clinical pregnancy rate ([CPR], 47.6%). The POSEIDON groups 1 and 2 had better COS and ART outcomes than groups 3 and 4 (CPR, 22.6%, 22.1%, 16.7%, and 4.8% in groups 1-4, respectively); the patients in group 3 were younger than those in group 2 by definition, but their CPR was lower than that of patients in group 2. When comparing young and old women with low anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels, the younger group (POSEIDON group 2) had better COS and ART outcomes than their older counterparts, especially POSEIDON group 4. A binary logistic regression adjusted for body mass index (BMI) comparing the ART outcomes of patients that did not get pregnant in the POSEIDON groups compared to the NR group showed odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence interval) of 2.938 (1.496-5.768), 3.376 (1.848-6.167), 6.801 (2.740-16.881), and 20.497 (8.284-50.713) for groups 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Ovarian reserve still seems to outweigh patients’ age when predicting the ART outcomes of low-responder infertile women, as suggested by the results of POSEIDON groups 2 and 3. However, when there are no differences in ovarian reserve, as in POSEIDON groups 2 and 4, younger women with low AMH have a higher probability of pregnancy than their AMH-matched older counterparts.

PMID:36271137 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-22859-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Hybrid photon-phonon blockade

Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 21;12(1):17655. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-21267-4.

ABSTRACT

We describe a novel type of blockade in a hybrid mode generated by linear coupling of photonic and phononic modes. We refer to this effect as hybrid photon-phonon blockade and show how it can be generated and detected in a driven nonlinear optomechanical superconducting system. Thus, we study boson-number correlations in the photon, phonon, and hybrid modes in linearly coupled microwave and mechanical resonators with a superconducting qubit inserted in one of them. We find such system parameters for which we observe eight types of different combinations of either blockade or tunnelling effects (defined via the sub- and super-Poissonian statistics, respectively) for photons, phonons, and hybrid bosons. In particular, we find that the hybrid photon-phonon blockade can be generated by mixing the photonic and phononic modes which do not exhibit blockade.

PMID:36271120 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-21267-4

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

U(1) dynamics in neuronal activities

Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 21;12(1):17629. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-22526-0.

ABSTRACT

Neurons convert external stimuli into action potentials, or spikes, and encode the contained information into the biological nervous system. Despite the complexity of neurons and the synaptic interactions in between, rate models are often adapted to describe neural encoding with modest success. However, it is not clear whether the firing rate, the reciprocal of the time interval between spikes, is sufficient to capture the essential features for the neuronal dynamics. Going beyond the usual relaxation dynamics in Ginzburg-Landau theory for statistical systems, we propose that neural activities can be captured by the U(1) dynamics, integrating the action potential and the “phase” of the neuron together. The gain function of the Hodgkin-Huxley neuron and the corresponding dynamical phase transitions can be described within the U(1) neuron framework. In addition, the phase dependence of the synaptic interactions is illustrated and the mapping to the Kinouchi-Copelli neuron is established. It suggests that the U(1) neuron is the minimal model for single-neuron activities and serves as the building block of the neuronal network for information processing.

PMID:36271115 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-22526-0

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Multiparameter optimization system with DCNN in precision agriculture for advanced irrigation planning and scheduling based on soil moisture estimation

Environ Monit Assess. 2022 Oct 22;195(1):13. doi: 10.1007/s10661-022-10529-3.

ABSTRACT

Agriculture is a distinct sector of a country’s economy. In recent years, new patterns have evolved in the agricultural industry. In conjunction with sensor scaling down and precision agriculture, the field of remote sensor networks, such as the wireless sensor network (WSN), was developed. Its major purpose is to make horticultural operations simpler to identify, assess, and manage. This paper uses the proposed DCNN to predict soil moisture and plan irrigation for precision agriculture farmers to reduce water consumption used for cultivation and increase production yield by comparing water content during various stages of plant growth and integrating IoT applications into agriculture. It also optimizes the water level for future irrigation decisions to maintain crop growth and water stability. The data must be served and stored in the form of a grid view, according to Apriori and GRU (gated recurrent unit). Using numerous sensor and parameter modelling methodologies, this system assists in the prediction of irrigation planning based on irrigation needs. The predicted parameters include soil moisture, temperature, and humidity. This observed experimental data supports smart irrigation in crop production with a high yield and little water use. DCNN has a 98.5% experimental result accuracy rate and the MSE value is predicted in DCNN 99.25% of the time.

PMID:36271063 | DOI:10.1007/s10661-022-10529-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Ambulatory sleeve gastrectomy: a prospective feasibility and comparative study of early postoperative morbidity

Surg Endosc. 2022 Oct 21. doi: 10.1007/s00464-022-09721-w. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Given its short procedure time and low morbidity, there is enthusiasm to perform sleeve gastrectomy (SG) in an outpatient setting. However, most relevant studies include an overnight stay at a medical facility (≤ 24-h). Hence, we investigated the feasibility and safety of a same-day discharge (SDD) protocol for laparoscopic SG.

METHODS: In a prospective pilot study (02/01/2021-02/28/2022), all patients planned for SG were screened for eligibility. Patients met the inclusion criteria if they were ≤ 65 years old, without major comorbidity, and lived close to the hospital. Postoperatively, patients who met discharge criteria were sent home directly from the recovery room. Patients were called the same night and the next morning. Feasibility was defined as discharge on the day of surgery without emergency department (ED) visit or readmission within 24-h. Secondary outcomes, including 90-day morbidity, were compared to patients who met inclusion criteria but chose a same-day admission (SDA) approach during the same study period. Descriptive statistics are displayed as count (percentage) and median (interquartile range).

RESULTS: A total of 320 patients were planned for SG during the study period, 229 of whom met eligibility criteria and underwent SG with 56 agreeing to SDD-SG while 173 opted for SDA-SG. Baseline characteristics were all similar between both groups except for obstructive sleep apnea being more prevalent in SDA-SG group (38.2% vs. 16.1%; P < 0.001). Operative characteristics including procedure time were similar between both groups. Successful SDD-SG was achieved in 54(96%) of patients with a median of 6.0(1.0) hours of stay in the recovery room. Ninety-day morbidity was similar between SDD-SG and SDA-SG groups (1.8% vs. 6.9%, respectively; P = 0.196).

CONCLUSION: A SDD protocol for laparoscopic SG was feasible and safe in selected patients. Larger studies that evaluate patient reported outcomes and include bypass-type procedures may be needed to guide safe use of ambulatory bariatric surgery.

PMID:36271061 | DOI:10.1007/s00464-022-09721-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A machine learning approach to explore predictors of graft detachment following posterior lamellar keratoplasty: a nationwide registry study

Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 21;12(1):17705. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-22223-y.

ABSTRACT

Machine learning can be used to explore the complex multifactorial patterns underlying postsurgical graft detachment after endothelial corneal transplantation surgery and to evaluate the marginal effect of various practice pattern modulations. We included all posterior lamellar keratoplasty procedures recorded in the Dutch Cornea Transplant Registry from 2015 through 2018 and collected the center-specific practice patterns using a questionnaire. All available data regarding the donor, recipient, surgery, and practice pattern, were coded into 91 factors that might be associated with the occurrence of a graft detachment. In this research, we used three machine learning methods; a regularized logistic regression (lasso), classification tree analysis (CTA), and random forest classification (RFC), to select the most predictive subset of variables for graft detachment. A total of 3647 transplants were included in our analysis and the overall prevalence of graft detachment was 9.9%. In an independent test set the area under the curve for the lasso, CTA, and RFC was 0.70, 0.65, and 0.72, respectively. Identified risk factors included: a Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty procedure, prior graft failure, and the use of sulfur hexafluoride gas. Factors with a reduced risk included: performing combined procedures, using pre-cut donor tissue, and a pre-operative laser iridotomy. These results can help surgeons to review their practice patterns and generate hypotheses for empirical research regarding the origins of graft detachments.

PMID:36271020 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-22223-y

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The distance distribution of human microRNAs in MirGeneDB database

Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 21;12(1):17696. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-22253-6.

ABSTRACT

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small single-stranded non-coding RNAs around 22 nucleotide lengths found in organisms, playing an important role in cell differentiation, development, gene regulation, and apoptosis. The distance of disease miRNA biomarkers has been used to explore the association between various diseases as well as the association between virus and disease in the literature. To date, there have been no studies on deriving the distribution of the pairwise distance of human miRNAs. As the pairwise distance of miRNA biomarkers might be a useful tool in studying the disease association, in this paper, the distance distributions of human miRNAs were derived such that they could be used to measure the closeness between miRNAs. Two distance models were used to calculate the pairwise distances of 567 Homo sapiens miRNA genes accessed from the MirGeneDB database. These miRNA pairwise distances were fitted by the normal distribution, gamma distribution, empirical cumulative distribution, and the kernel density estimation method. This is the first study to provide the distance distribution of human miRNAs. The similarity of miRNA biomarkers for several diseases was examined using the derived distributions.

PMID:36271017 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-22253-6