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Nevin Manimala Statistics

PIRO-CIC model can predict mortality and futility of care in critically ill cirrhosis patients in the intensive care unit

Hepatol Int. 2022 Oct 13. doi: 10.1007/s12072-022-10426-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Dynamic assessment of critically ill patients with cirrhosis (CICs) is required for accurate prognostication.

OBJECTIVE: Development of a dynamic model for prediction of mortality and decision on futility of care in CICs.

DESIGN AND SETTING: In a prospective cohort study, we developed the PIRO-CIC model (predisposition, injury, response, organ failure for critically ill cirrhotics)] in a derivative cohort (n = 360) and validated it (n = 240) for patients admitted to the Liver ICU.

PATIENTS: Decompensated cirrhosis admitted to ICU. The model was developed using Cox-regression analysis, and futility was performed by decision-curve analysis.

RESULTS: CICs aged 48 ± 11.5 years, 87% males, majority being alcoholics, were enrolled, of which 73.5% were alive at one month. Factors significant for P component were INR [hazard ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.18] and CystatinC [2.25, 1.70-2.97]; for I component were sepsis [4.69, 1.90-11.57], arterial lactate[1.40, 1.02-1.93] and alcohol as etiology [2.78, 1.85-4.18]; for R component-systemic inflammatory response syndrome [1.97, 1.14-3.42] and urine neutrophil-gelatinase-associated lipocalin [HR 2.37, 1.59-3.53]; for O component-low PaO2/FiO2 ratio and need of mechanical ventilation [7.41, 4.63-11.86]. The PIRO-CIC model predicted one-month mortality with a C-index of 0.83 in the derivation and 0.80 in the validation cohorts. It predicted futility of care better than other prognostic scores. The immediate risk of mortality increased by 39% with each unit increase in PIRO-CIC score.

LIMITATIONS: Not applicable for acute-on-chronic liver failure and patients requiring emergency liver transplant.

CONCLUSIONS: Assessment and stratification of CICs with the dynamic PIRO-CIC model could determine one-month mortality and futility in the first week. Targeted and aggressive management of coagulation, kidneys, sepsis, and severe systemic inflammation may improve outcomes of CICs.

PMID:36227516 | DOI:10.1007/s12072-022-10426-4

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Clinical pilot study for EPID-based in vivo dosimetry using EPIgray™ for head and neck VMAT

Phys Eng Sci Med. 2022 Oct 13. doi: 10.1007/s13246-022-01184-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

This work details the clinical pilot study methodology used at Wellington Blood and Cancer Centre (WBCC) before the clinical release of in vivo dosimetry (IVD) system EPIgray™ for head and neck (H&N) volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) treatments. Clinical pilot studies make it possible to select appropriate, department-specific tolerance ranges for the treatment type and site under investigation. An IVD clinical pilot study of H&N VMAT treatments was conducted over 3 months at WBCC using EPIgray™ dose reconstruction software and included 12 patients and 32 individual treatment fractions. Statistical analysis of the dose deviations between the treatment planning system (TPS) dose and EPIgray™ reconstructed dose confirmed that a deviation tolerance range of ± 7.0% was an appropriate choice for H&N VMAT at WBCC.

PMID:36227496 | DOI:10.1007/s13246-022-01184-6

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

High frame-rate contrast enhanced ultrasound (HIFR-CEUS) in the characterization of small hepatic lesions in cirrhotic patients

J Ultrasound. 2022 Oct 13. doi: 10.1007/s40477-022-00724-w. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To show the effectiveness of plane wave HighFrame-Rate CEUS (HiFR-CEUS) compared with “conventional” (plane wave) CEUS (C-CEUS) in the characterization of small (< 2 cm) focal liver lesions (FLLs) not easily detected by CT in cirrhotic patients. HiFR-CEUS exploit an ultra-wideband nonlinear process to combine fundamental, second and higher-order harmonic signals generated by ultrasound contrast agents to increase the frame rate. C-CEUS is limited by the transmission principle, and its frame-rate is around 10 FPS. With HiFR-CEUS (Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co., China), the frame-rate reached 60 FPS.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Ultrasound detected small FLLs (< 2 cm) in 63 cirrhotic patients during follow-up (June 2019-February 2020); (7 nodules < 1 cm and were not evaluable by spiral CT). Final diagnosis was obtained with MRI (47) or fine needle aspiration (16 cases) C-CEUS was performed and HiFR-CEUS was repeated after 5 min; 0.8-1.2 ml of contrast media (SonoVue, Bracco, Italy) was used. 57 nodules were better evaluable with HiFR-CEUS; 6 nodules were equally evaluable by both techniques; final diagnosis was: 44 benign lesions (29 hemangiomas, 1 amartoma, 2 hepatic cysts; 2 focal nodular hyperplasias, 3 regenerative macronodules, 3 AV-shunts, 3 hepatic sparing areas and 1 focal steatosis) and 19 malignant one (17 HCCs, 1 cholangioca, 1 metastasis); statistical evaluation for better diagnosis with X2 test (SPSS vers. 26); we used LI-RADS classification for evaluating sensitivity, specificity PPV, NPV and diagnostic accuracy of C- and HFR-CEUS. Corrispective AU-ROC were calculated.

RESULTS: C-CEUS and HiFR-CEUS reached the same diagnosis in 29 nodules (13 nodules > 1 < 1.5 cm; 16 nodules > 1.5 < 2 cm); HiFR-CEUS reached a correct diagnosis in 32 nodules where C-CEUS was not diagnostic (6 nodules < 1 cm; 17 nodules > 1 < 1.5 cm; 9 nodules > 1.5 < 2 cm); C-CEUS was better in 2 nodules (1 < 1 cm and 1 > 1 < 1.5 cm). Some patient’s (sex, BMI, age) and nodule’s characteristics (liver segment, type of diagnosis, nodule’s dimensions (p = 0.65)) were not correlated with better diagnosis (p ns); only better visualization (p 0.004) was correlated; C-CEUS obtained the following LI-RADS: type-1: 18 Nodules, type-2: 21; type-3: 7, type-4: 7; type-5: 8; type-M: 2; HiFR-CEUS: type-1: 38 Nodules, type-2: 2; type-3:4, type-4: 2; type-5: 15; type-M: 2; In comparison with final diagnosis: C-CEUS: TP: 17; TN: 39; FP: 5; FN:2; HIFR-CEUS: TP: 18; TN: 41; FP: 3; FN:1; C-CEUS: sens: 89.5%; Spec: 88.6%, PPV: 77.3%; NPV: 95.1%; Diagn Acc: 88.6% (AU-ROC: 0.994 ± SEAUC: 0.127; CI: 0.969-1.019); HiHFR CEUS: sens: 94.7%; Spec: 93.2%, PPV: 85.7%; NPV: 97.6%; Diagn Acc: 93.2% (AU-ROC: 0.9958 ± SEAUC: 0.106; CI: 0.975-1.017) FLL vascularization in the arterial phase was more visible with HiFR-CEUS than with C-CEUS, capturing the perfusion details in the arterial phase due to a better temporal resolution. With a better temporal resolution, the late phase could be evaluated longer with HiFR-CEUS (4 min C-CEUS vs. 5 min HiFR-CEUS).

CONCLUSION: Both C-CEUS and HIFR-CEUS are good non invasive imaging system for the characterization of small lesions detected during follow up of cirrhotic patients. HiFR-CEUS allowed better FLL characterization in cirrhotic patients with better temporal and spatial resolution capturing the perfusion details that cannot be easily observed with C-CEUS.

PMID:36227456 | DOI:10.1007/s40477-022-00724-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Spanish-Language Communication of COVID-19 Information Across US Local Health Department Websites

J Racial Ethn Health Disparities. 2022 Oct 13. doi: 10.1007/s40615-022-01428-x. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought new urgency to a longstanding problem: the US health system is not well-equipped to accommodate the country’s large limited English proficient (LEP) population in times of national emergency. We examined the landscape of Spanish-language COVID-19 website information compared to information in English provided by health departments of the top 10 cities by population in the USA. For each city, coders evaluated three score measures (amount of information, presentation quality, and ease of navigation) for six content types (general information, symptoms, testing, prevention, vaccines, and live statistics) across six delivery modes (print resources, website text, videos, external links, data visualization, and media toolkits). We then calculated a grand average, combining all cities’ values per score measure for each content type-delivery mode combination, to understand the landscape of Spanish-language information across the country. Overall, we found that, for all cities combined, nearly all content types and delivery modes in Spanish were inferior or non-existent compared to English resources. Our findings also showed much variability and spread concerning content type and delivery mode of information. Finally, our findings uncovered three main clusters of content type and delivery mode combinations for Spanish-language information, ranging from similar to worse, compared to information in English. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 information was not equivalently provided in Spanish, despite federal guidance regarding language access during times of national emergency. These results can inform ongoing and future emergency communication plans for Spanish-preferring LEP and other LEP populations in the USA.

PMID:36227453 | DOI:10.1007/s40615-022-01428-x

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Clinical research diagnostic criteria for bipolar illness (CRDC-BP): rationale and validity

Int J Bipolar Disord. 2022 Oct 13;10(1):23. doi: 10.1186/s40345-022-00267-3.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In the 1970 s, scientific research on psychiatric nosology was summarized in Research Diagnostic Criteria (RDC), based solely on empirical data, an important source for the third revision of the official nomenclature of the American Psychiatric Association in 1980, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, Third Edition (DSM-III). The intervening years, especially with the fourth edition in 1994, saw a shift to a more overtly “pragmatic” approach to diagnostic definitions, which were constructed for many purposes, with research evidence being only one consideration. The latest editions have been criticized as failing to be useful for research. Biological and clinical research rests on the validity of diagnostic definitions that are supported by firm empirical foundations, but critics note that DSM criteria have failed to prioritize research data in favor of “pragmatic” considerations.

RESULTS: Based on prior work of the International Society for Bipolar Diagnostic Guidelines Task Force, we propose here Clinical Research Diagnostic Criteria for Bipolar Illness (CRDC-BP) for use in research studies, with the hope that these criteria may lead to further refinement of diagnostic definitions for other major mental illnesses in the future. New proposals are provided for mixed states, mood temperaments, and duration of episodes.

CONCLUSIONS: A new CRDC could provide guidance toward an empirically-based, scientific psychiatric nosology, and provide an alternative clinical diagnostic approach to the DSM system.

PMID:36227452 | DOI:10.1186/s40345-022-00267-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Urinary complement proteins are increased in children with IgA vasculitis (Henoch-Schönlein purpura) nephritis

Pediatr Nephrol. 2022 Oct 13. doi: 10.1007/s00467-022-05747-3. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Children with immunoglobulin A vasculitis (IgAV Henoch-Schönlein purpura) frequently encounter nephritis (IgAV-N) with 1-2% risk of kidney failure. The pathophysiology of IgAV-N is not fully understood with speculation that complement may contribute. The aim of this study was to identify whether urinary complement proteins are increased in children with IgAV-N.

METHODS: A cross-sectional prospective cohort of children with IgAV were recruited together with controls including healthy children and children with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Patients were subdivided according to the presence of nephritis. Urinary C3, C4, C5, and C5a were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and corrected for urinary creatinine.

RESULTS: The study included 103 children; 47 with IgAV (37 IgAV without nephritis, IgAVwoN; 10 IgAV-N), 30 SLE and 26 healthy children. Urinary complement C3, C4, and C5 were all statistically significantly increased in all children with IgAV compared to SLE patients (all p < 0.05). In patients with IgAV-N, urinary complement C3, C4, C5, C5a were all statistically significantly increased compared to IgAVwoN (C3 14.65 μg/mmol [2.26-20.21] vs. 2.26 μg/mmol [0.15-3.14], p = 0.007; C4 6.52 μg/mmol [1.30-9.72] vs. 1.37 μg/mmol [0.38-2.43], p = 0.04; C5 1.36 μg/mmol [0.65-2.85] vs. 0.38 μg/mmol [0.03-0.72], p = 0.005; C5a 101.9 ng/mmol [15.36-230.0] vs. 18.33 ng/mmol [4.27-33.30], p = 0.01). Using logistic regression, the urinary complement components produced an outstanding ability to discriminate between patients with and without nephritis in IgAV (AUC 0.92, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: Children with IgAV-N have evidence of increased complement proteins present in their urine that may indicate a pathological role and may allow treatment stratification. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

PMID:36227437 | DOI:10.1007/s00467-022-05747-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Spatial dynamics of a vegetation model with uptake-diffusion feedback in an arid environment

J Math Biol. 2022 Oct 13;85(5):50. doi: 10.1007/s00285-022-01825-0.

ABSTRACT

Vegetation patterns with a variety of structures is amazing phenomena in arid or semi-arid areas, which can identify the evolution law of vegetation and are typical signals of ecosystem functions. Many achievements have been made in this respect, yet the mechanisms of uptake-diffusion feedback on the pattern structures of vegetation is not fully understood. To well reveal the influences of parameters perturbation on the pattern formation of vegetation, we give a comprehensive analysis on a vegetation-water model in the forms of reaction-diffusion equation which is posed by Zelnik et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci 112:12,327-12,331, 2015). We obtain the exact parameters range for stationary patterns and show the dynamical behaviors near the bifurcation point based on nonlinear analysis. It is found that the model has the properties of spot, labyrinth and gap patterns. Moreover, water diffusion rate prohibits the growth of vegetation while shading parameter promotes the increase of vegetation biomass. Our results show that gradual transitions from uniform state to gap pattern can occur for suitable value of parameters which may induce the emergence of desertification.

PMID:36227425 | DOI:10.1007/s00285-022-01825-0

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Frailty transitions in older persons with lung function impairment: a population-based study

J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2022 Oct 13:glac202. doi: 10.1093/gerona/glac202. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The ageing population and its burden on health-care systems warrant early detection of patients at risk of functional decline and mortality. We aimed to assess frailty transitions and its accuracy for mortality prediction in subjects with impaired spirometry (Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry [PRISm] or Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease [COPD]).

METHODS: In participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study (mean age 69.1±8.9 years), we examined whether PRISm (Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second [FEV1]/Forced Vital Capacity [FVC]≥70% and FEV1<80%) or COPD (FEV1/FVC<70%) affected frailty transitions (progression/recovery between frailty states [robust, prefrailty and frailty], lost to follow-up or death) using age-, sex- and smoking state-adjusted multinomial regression models yielding odd’s ratios (OR). Second, we assessed diagnostic accuracy of frailty score for predicting mortality in subjects with COPD using c-statistics.

RESULTS: Compared to subjects with normal spirometry, subjects with PRISm were more likely to transit from robust (OR 2.2[1.2-4.2], p<0.05) or prefrailty (OR 2.6[1.3-5.5], p<0.01) towards frailty. Subjects with PRISm (OR 0.4[0.2-0.8], p<0.05) and COPD (OR 0.6[0.4-1.0], NS) were less likely to recover from their frail state, and were more likely to progress from any frailty state towards death (OR between 1.1 and 2.8, p<0.01). Accuracy for predicting mortality in subjects with COPD significantly improved when adding frailty score to age, sex and smoking status (90.5[82.3-89.8] vs 77.9[67.2-88.6], p<0.05).

CONCLUSION: Participants with PRISm or COPD more often developed frailty with poor reversibility. Assessing physical frailty improved risk stratification for subjects with impaired spirometry for predicting increased life years.

PMID:36226677 | DOI:10.1093/gerona/glac202

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The effect of different socio-economic and working conditions on body size and proportions: A case study on adults from Samsun, Turkey

J Biosoc Sci. 2022 Oct 13:1-20. doi: 10.1017/S0021932022000232. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Conditions in the early stages of life shape body size and proportions. This study includes individuals who came from different socio-economic conditions and worked in physically demanding jobs in childhood. By determining the body sizes of these individuals and evaluating the proportional relationships between several groups, the goal was to understand the effect levels of socio-economic levels and working conditions on the body. For this purpose, an anthropometric study was conducted on 623 males and females between the ages of 20 and 45 living in Samsun, Turkey. The study sample consisted of four different groups. It was divided into two main groups of high and low socio-economic level, and the low socio-economic group was divided into two subgroups of heavy-worker and nonheavy-worker. The results demonstrated that socio-economic differences in the size and proportions of the individuals were statistically significant (p<0.05). The high socio-economic group had the highest values in all measures. External factors affected the lower limbs more than the upper limbs. The measurement most affected by these factors was leg length. Longer legs characterized the high socio-economic group, while longer arms characterized both low socio-economic groups. The relative differences observed can be said to derive from the distal limbs. This finding was valid for both sexes. The average values were close to each other in the low socio-economic group, for which the aim was to comprehend the effects of heavy working conditions. However, differences in proportional relationships were more significant. In this context, it was seen that heavy labour also affected growth, in addition to the well-known factors encountered during the growth period, such as nutrition, health, and illness. The observed changes were more significant in males than in females. Thus, it can be said that males were more affected by physiological and physical conditions.

PMID:36226660 | DOI:10.1017/S0021932022000232

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Caesarean delivery in Uganda: Do non-clinical factors explain the trend?

J Biosoc Sci. 2022 Oct 13:1-14. doi: 10.1017/S0021932022000359. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper was to assess the association between non-clinical factors and Caesarean delivery in Uganda. Self-reported data from the individual recode file were extracted from the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS), with a sub sample of 9929 women aged 15-49 with a recent birth in the last 5 years preceding the survey. Chi-square tests and multivariate comlementary log-log regression models were used to examine the relationship between non-clinical factors and Caesarean section delivery. About one in ten (7%) of the women aged 15-49 had Caesarean deliveries. Non-clinical factors which were significantly associated with Caesarean section delivery include advanced maternal age, having the first birth compared to subsequent births, having 1-3 children compared to 4 or more children, higher level of women’s education relative to no education, being in the middle, richer, and richest wealth quintile compared to the poorest quintile. In conclusion, evidence suggests that the trend in Caesarean delivery can be attributed partially to non-clinical factors including advanced maternal age, birth order, parity, women’s education level, and wealth quintile. Thus, efforts to address the trend in Caesarean section delivery, need to take account of non-clinical factors.

PMID:36226659 | DOI:10.1017/S0021932022000359