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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Opportunities to improve behavioral health crisis response: Results of a large urban county’s community status assessment

J Community Psychol. 2021 Aug 24. doi: 10.1002/jcop.22697. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

A comprehensive community status assessment of an Ohio urban county’s crisis response (CR) system explored the experiences of its behavioral health services’ clients and providers to surface themes characterizing the system’s responsiveness and identifying opportunities for improvements. Forty-eight focus groups and two online surveys were conducted. Data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis and descriptive statistics. The greatest areas of needed improvement ascertained by this effort are in increased CR system resources, more efficient use of resources, and capacity enhancements in nine areas: the mobile crisis team, CR protocols, psychiatric inpatient and crisis stabilization beds, stabilization admission for eligible persons, stabilization services for in-crisis but admission-ineligible persons, continuity of care, research into child versus adult CR systems, Provider Emergency Support Program, and first responder crisis intervention training. The assessment provides a foundation for the county to identify further opportunities for system scale-up.

PMID:34428323 | DOI:10.1002/jcop.22697

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Modeling the Covid-19 epidemic using time series econometrics

Health Econ. 2021 Aug 24. doi: 10.1002/hec.4413. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The classic “logistic” model has provided a realistic model of the behaviour of Covid-19 in China and many East Asian countries. Once these countries passed the peak, the daily case count fell back, mirroring its initial climb in a symmetric way, just as the classic model predicts. However, in Italy and Spain and most other Western countries, the first wave of the epidemic was very different. The daily count fell back gradually from the peak but remained stubbornly high. The reason for the divergence from the classical model remain unclear. We take an empirical stance on this issue and develop a model framework based upon the statistical characteristics of the time series. With the possible exception of China, the workhorse logistic model is decisively rejected against more flexible alternatives.

PMID:34428329 | DOI:10.1002/hec.4413

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Study on the drop impact characteristics and impact damage mechanism of sweet potato tubers during harvest

PLoS One. 2021 Aug 24;16(8):e0255856. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255856. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Collision of falling in the mechanical harvesting process of sweet potato is one of the main causes of epidermal destruction and damage to sweet potato tubers. Therefore, a sweet potato mechanical characteristic test and a full-factor sweet potato drop test were designed. Based on the analysis of the fitting mathematical model, the impact of the drop height, collision material and sweet potato chunk size on the damage of the sweet potato were studied. The mathematical models were established by fitting analysis of the IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software between the drop height and the sweet potato chunk size with each test index (impact force, impact stress, broken skin area and damaged area). The critical epidermal destruction height and the critical damage height of a certain size of sweet potato when it collides with a collision material can be calculated by the mathematical model, and the critical epidermal destruction mass and critical damage mass of sweet potato when it falls from a certain height and collides with a collision material can also be calculated. Then a series of critical values (including critical epidermal destruction force value, critical epidermal destruction impact stress, critical damage force value, critical damage impact stress) of mechanical properties of sweet potato were obtained. The results show that the impact deformation of sweet potato includes both elastic and plastic ones, and has similar stress relaxation characteristics. The critical damage impact stress of sweet potato is that the average value of the impact stress on the contact surface is less than it’s Firmness. The results provided a theoretical basis for understanding the collision damage mechanism of sweet potato and how to reduce the damage during harvest.

PMID:34428245 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0255856

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Do authors of research funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research comply with its open access mandate?: A meta-epidemiologic study

PLoS One. 2021 Aug 24;16(8):e0256577. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256577. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Since 2008, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) has mandated that studies it funds either in whole or in part are required to publish their results as open access (OA) within 12 months of publication using either online repositories and/or OA journals. Yet, there is evidence that authors are poorly compliant with this mandate. Specifically, there has been an apparent decrease in OA publication after 2015, which coincides with a change in the OA policy during the same year. One particular policy change that may have contributed to this decline was lifting the requirement that authors deposit their article in an OA repository immediately upon publication. We investigated the proportion of OA compliance of CIHR-funded studies in the period before and after the policy change of 2015 with manual confirmation of both CIHR funding and OA status.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We identified CIHR-funded studies published between the years 2014 to 2017 using a comprehensive search in the Web of Science (WoS). We took a stratified random sample from all four years (i.e. 2014 to 2017), with 250 studies from each year. Two authors independently reviewed the final full-text publications retrieved from the journal web page to determine to confirm CIHR funding, as indicated in the acknowledgements or elsewhere in the paper. For each study, we also collected bibliometric data that included citation count and Altmetric attention score Statistical analyses were conducted using two-tailed Fisher’s exact test with relative risk (RR). Among the 851 receiving CIHR funding published from 2014 to 2017, the percentage of CIHR-funded studies published as OA significantly decreased from 79.6% in 2014 to 70.3% in 2017 (RR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.79-0.99, P = 0.028). When considering all four years, there was no significant difference in the percentage of CIHR-funded studies published as OA in both 2014 and 2015 compared to both 2016 and 2017 (RR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.90-1.05, P = 0.493). Additionally, OA publications had significantly higher citation count (both in year of publication and in total) and higher attention scores (P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we found that there was a significant decrease in the proportion of CIHR funded studies published as OA from 2014 compared to 2017, though this difference did not persist when comparing both 2014-2015 to 2016-2017. The primary limitation was the reliance of self-reported data from authors on CIHR funding status. We posit that this decrease may be attributable to CIHR’s OA policy change in 2015. Further exploration is warranted to both validate these studies using a larger dataset and, if valid, investigate the effects of potential interventions to improve the OA compliance, such as use of a CIHR publication database, and reinstatement of a policy for authors to immediately submit their findings to OA repositories upon publication.

PMID:34428248 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0256577

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Direct anterior approach (DAA) vs. conventional approaches in total hip arthroplasty: A RCT meta-analysis with an overview of related meta-analyses

PLoS One. 2021 Aug 24;16(8):e0255888. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255888. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Several systematic reviews and meta-analyses on short-term outcomes between total hip arthroplasty (THA) through direct anterior approach (DAA) compared to THA through conventional (including anterior, anterolateral, lateral transgluteal, lateral transtrochanteric, posterior, and posterolateral) approaches (CAs) in treatment of hip diseases and fractures showed contradicting conclusions. Our aim was to draw definitive conclusions by conducting both a fixed and random model meta-analysis of quality randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and by comparison with related meta-analyses.

DESIGN: We performed a systematic literature search up to May 2020 to identify RCTs, comparing THA through DAA with THA through CAs and related meta-analyses. We conducted risk of bias and level of evidence assessment in accordance with the Cochrane’s Risk of Bias 2 tool and with the guidelines of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. We estimated mean differences (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) through fixed and random effects models, using the DerSimonian and Laird method. Heterogeneity was assessed using tau-square (τ2). Our conclusions take into account the overall results from related meta-analyses.

RESULTS: Nine studies on THA through DAA met the criteria for final meta-analysis, involving 998 patients. Three studies were blinded RCTs with a level I evidence, the other 6 studies were non-blinded RCTs with a level II evidence. We came to the following results for THA through DAA compared to THA through CAs: operation time (I2 = 92%, p<0.01; fixed: MD = 15.1, 95% CI 13.1 to 17.1; random: MD = 18.1, 95% CI 8.6 to 27.5); incision length (I2 = 100%, p<0.01; fixed: MD = -2.9, 95% CI -3.0 to -2.8; MD = -1.1, 95% CI -4.3 to 2.0); intraoperative blood loss (I2 = 87%, p<0.01; fixed: MD = 51.5, 95% CI 34.1 to 68.8; random: MD = 51.9, 95% CI -89.8 to 193.5); VAS 1 day postoperatively (I2 = 79%, p = 0.03; fixed: MD = -0.8, 95% CI -1.2 to -0.4; random: MD = -0.9, 95% CI -2.0 to 0.15); HHS 3 months postoperatively (I2 = 52%, p = 0.08; fixed: MD = 2.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.6; random: MD = 3.0, 95% CI -0.5 to 6.5); HHS 6 months postoperatively (I2 = 0%, p = 0.67; fixed: MD = 0.9, 95% CI -1.1 to 2.9; random: MD = 0.9, 95% CI -1.1 to 2.9); HHS 12 months postoperatively (I2 = 0%, p = 0.79; fixed: MD = 0.7, 95% CI -0.9 to 2.4; random: MD = 0.7, 95% CI -0.9 to 2.4). We compared our findings with 7 related meta-analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Considering the results of our meta-analysis and the review of related meta-analyses, we can conclude that short-term outcomes of THA through DAA were overall better than THA through CAs. THA through DAA had a shorter incision length, a tendency towards a lower pain VAS 1 day postoperatively and better early postoperative functional outcome than THA through CAs. The intraoperative blood loss showed indifferent results. THA through DAA had a longer operation time than THA through CAs.

PMID:34428236 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0255888

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A randomized controlled trial evaluating the effects of a family-centered HIV care model on viral suppression and retention in care of HIV-positive children in Eswatini

PLoS One. 2021 Aug 24;16(8):e0256256. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256256. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: A family-centered care model (FCCM) providing family-based HIV services, rather than separate adult/pediatric services, has been proposed to increase pediatric retention and treatment adherence.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eight health-care facilities in the Hhohho region of Eswatini were randomized to implement FCCM (n = 4) or continue standard-of-care (SOC) separate adult/pediatric clinics (n = 4). HIV-positive children and caregivers were enrolled; caregiver interview and child/caregiver chart abstraction were done at enrollment and every three months; pediatric viral load was evaluated at enrollment and every six months through 12 months. Because of study group differences in 12-month viral load data availability (89.4% FCCM and 72.0% SOC children had 12-month viral load), we used three separate analyses to evaluate the effects of FCCM on children’s viral suppression (<1,000 copies/mL) and undetectable virus (<400 copies/mL) at 12 months. In the first analysis, all children with missing viral outcome data were excluded from the analysis (modified intent to treat, mITT). The second analysis used inverse probability of missingness weighted logistic regression to estimate the effect of FCCM on 12-month viral outcomes compared to SOC (weighted mITT). For the third approach, missing virologic outcome data were imputed as virologic failure (imputed ITT). We also examined factors associated with viral suppression at 12 months using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS: We enrolled 379 HIV-positive children and 363 caregivers. Among all children at enrollment, viral suppression and undetectability was 78.4% and 73.9%, respectively, improving to 90.2% and 87.3% at 12 months. In mITT and weighted mITT analyses, there was no significant difference in children’s 12-month viral suppression between FCCM and SOC groups (89.2% and 91.6%, respectively). Using imputed ITT, there was a modest increase in 12-month viral suppression in FCCM versus SOC children (79.7% and 69.8%, respectively, p = 0.051) and 12-month undetectability (78.7% and 65.7%, respectively, p = 0.015). Among the 255 children suppressed at enrollment, more FCCM versus SOC children (98.0% versus 95.3%) were suppressed at 12-months, but this was not statistically significant in mITT or weighted mITT analyses, with a marginally significant difference using imputed mITT analysis (p = 0.042). A higher proportion of children suppressed at enrollment had undetectable viral load at 12 months in FCCM versus SOC children (98.0% versus 92.5%), a statistically significant difference across analytical methods. Among the 61 children unsuppressed at enrollment, achieving suppression was higher among SOC versus FCCM children, but this difference was not statistically significant and included only 38 children; and there were no significant differences in detectable viral load at 12 months. There were no significant differences between study groups in retention or ART adherence at 12 months for children or caregivers. Factors associated with lack of viral suppression/detectability at 12 months included lack of viral suppression at enrollment and having a younger caregiver (age <25 years).

CONCLUSIONS: FCCM in Eswatini was associated with a modest increase in viral suppression/undetectability at 12-months; 12-month retention and adherence did not differ by study group for children or caregivers. High levels of suppression and retention in both groups may have limited our ability to detect a difference.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03397420; ClinicalTrials.gov.

PMID:34428241 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0256256

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Advanced arithmetic optimization algorithm for solving mechanical engineering design problems

PLoS One. 2021 Aug 24;16(8):e0255703. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255703. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

The distributive power of the arithmetic operators: multiplication, division, addition, and subtraction, gives the arithmetic optimization algorithm (AOA) its unique ability to find the global optimum for optimization problems used to test its performance. Several other mathematical operators exist with the same or better distributive properties, which can be exploited to enhance the performance of the newly proposed AOA. In this paper, we propose an improved version of the AOA called nAOA algorithm, which uses the high-density values that the natural logarithm and exponential operators can generate, to enhance the exploratory ability of the AOA. The addition and subtraction operators carry out the exploitation. The candidate solutions are initialized using the beta distribution, and the random variables and adaptations used in the algorithm have beta distribution. We test the performance of the proposed nAOA with 30 benchmark functions (20 classical and 10 composite test functions) and three engineering design benchmarks. The performance of nAOA is compared with the original AOA and nine other state-of-the-art algorithms. The nAOA shows efficient performance for the benchmark functions and was second only to GWO for the welded beam design (WBD), compression spring design (CSD), and pressure vessel design (PVD).

PMID:34428219 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0255703

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Improved kala-azar case management through implementation of health facility-based sentinel sites surveillance system in Bihar, India

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021 Aug 24;15(8):e0009598. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009598. eCollection 2021 Aug.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), also known as kala-azar (KA), is a neglected vector-borne disease, targeted for elimination, but several affected blocks of Bihar are posing challenges with the high incidence of cases, and moreover, the disease is spreading in newer areas. High-quality kala-azar surveillance in India, always pose great concern. The complete and accurate patient level data is critical for the current kala-azar management information system (KMIS). On the other side, no accurate data on the burden of post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) and co-infections are available under the current surveillance system, which might emerge as a serious concern. Additionally, in low case scenario, sentinel surveillance may be useful in addressing post-elimination activities and sustaining kala-azar (KA) elimination. Health facility-based sentinel site surveillance system has been proposed, first time to do a proper accounting of KA, PKDL and co-infection morbidity, mortality, diagnosis, case management, hotspot identification and monitoring the impact of elimination interventions.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Kala-azar sentinel site surveillance was established and activated in thirteen health facilities of Bihar, India, using stratified sampling technique during 2011 to 2014. Data were collected through specially designed performa from all patients attending the outpatient departments of sentinel sites. Among 20968 symptomatic cases attended sentinel sites, 2996 cases of KA and 53 cases of PKDL were registered from 889 endemic villages. Symptomatic cases meant a person with fever of more than 15 days, weight loss, fatigue, anemia, and substantial swelling of the liver and spleen (enlargement of spleen and liver).The proportion of new and old cases was 86.1% and 13.9% respectively. A statistically significant difference was observed for reduction in KA incidence from 4.13/10000 in 2011 to 1.75/10000 in 2014 (p<0.001). There were significant increase (0.08, 0.10 per 10 000 population) in the incidences of PKDL and co-infection respectively in the year 2014 as compared to that of 2011 (0.03, 0.06 per 10 000 population). The proportion of HIV-VL co-infection was significantly higher (1.6%; p<0.05) as compared to other co-infections. Proportions of male in all age groups were higher and found statistically significant (Chi-square test = 7.6; P = 0.026). Utilization of laboratory services was greatly improved. Friedman test showed statistically significant difference between response of different anti kala-azar drugs (F = 25.0, P = 0.004).The initial and final cure rate of AmBisome was found excellent (100%). The results of the signed rank sum test showed significant symmetry of unresponsiveness rate (P = 0.03). Similarly, relapse rate of sodium antimony gluconate (SAG) was also found significantly higher as compared to other drugs (95%CI 0.2165 to 19.7035; P = 0.03). A statistically significant difference was found (p<0.001) between villages having 1-2 cases (74%) and villages with 3-5 cases (15%). Significantly higher proportion (95%) of cases were captured by existing Govt. surveillance system (KMIS) (p<0.001), as compared to private providers (5%).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Establishment of a sentinel site based kala-azar surveillance system in Bihar, India effectively detected the rising trend of PKDL and co-infections and captured complete and accurate patient level data. Further, this system may provide a model for improving laboratory services, KA, PKDL and co-infection case management in other health facilities of Bihar without further referral. Program managers may use these results for evaluating program’s effectiveness. It may provide an example for changing the practices of health care workers in Bihar and set a benchmark of high quality surveillance data in a resource limited setting. However, the generalizability of this sentinel surveillance finding to other context remains a major limitation of this study. The justifications for this; the sentinel sites were made in the traditionally high endemic PHC’s. The other conditions were Program commitment for diagnostic (rk-39) and the first line anti kala-azar drug i.e. miltefosine throughout the study period in the sentinel sites. In addition, there were clause of fulfillment of readiness criteria at each sentinel site (already described in the line no 171 to 180 at page no-8, 181-189 at page no-9 and 192-212 at page no-10). Rigorous efforts were taken to improve all the sentinel sites to meet the readiness criteria and research activities started only after meeting readiness criteria at the site. Therefore sentinel site surveillance described under the present study cannot be integrated into other set up (medium and low endemic areas). However, it can be integrated into highly endemic areas with program commitment and fulfillment of readiness criteria.

PMID:34428232 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009598

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Impact of the coronavirus disease-19 pandemic on electrophysiological procedures at a national referral center

Arch Cardiol Mex. 2021 Aug 24. doi: 10.24875/ACM.21000164. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has generated serious repercussions on the health system, reducing the number of all cardiology procedures worldwide.

OBJECTIVES: Describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the procedures performed by the electrophysiology department in a national referral center.

METHODS: We made a retrospective review of our data base and we compared procedures made in the past 3 years since 2017-2019 with the procedures made in the 2020. We divided the procedures into two large groups: Cardiac Implantable Electronic Devices (CIED) related procedures and electrophysiological procedures (EP) which included conventional and complex ablations.

RESULTS: There was a significant reduction in all the procedures, the average of procedures performed in the last 3 previous years was 467, while in 2020, we performed only 319 (p = 0.01); this represents a reduction of 33.4% in the total number of procedures. There was no statistical difference regarding the CIED related procedures, the average of procedures in the past 3 previous years was 174, and in 2020 we performed 190 procedures (p = 0.46). Regarding the EP, the average of the past 3 previous years was 293, while in 2020, we performed only 129 procedures (p < 0.01). The reduction in the EP was 55.97%. The most affected months were April, May, and June.

CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic considerably affected the number of the procedures in our center, reducing it by 33.4%. The reduction of procedures fundamentally affected the ablations, with a reduction of 55.97%. The number of CIED related procedures was not affected.

PMID:34428197 | DOI:10.24875/ACM.21000164

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Don’t close the book on tocilizumab for the treatment of severe COVID-19 pneumonia-the jury is still out: The Kuwait experience

PLoS One. 2021 Aug 24;16(8):e0254379. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254379. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: This cross-sectional observational study aims to report preliminary data from the first experience using tocilizumab for patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in three of Kuwait’s largest public hospitals City.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: This chart review study examined the benefits of tocilizumab treatment among 127 patients diagnosed with severe coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia.

RESULTS: 90 of 127 patients (71%) survived. Mortality was highest in the elderly with multiple medical conditions.

CONCLUSION: Despite the small sample size and retrospective nature of the work, our findings are consistent with recent studies suggesting tocilizumab administration in patients presenting with severe COVID pneumonia with associated hyperinflammatory features conferred mortality benefit.

PMID:34428204 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0254379