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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Predicting Elective Surgical Patient Outcome Destination Based on the Preoperative Modified Frailty Index and Laboratory Values

J Surg Res. 2022 Mar 23;275:341-351. doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2022.02.029. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: To determine the accuracy of preoperative modified frailty index (mFI) with or without laboratory values (mFI-labs or labs-continuous) in predicting postoperative discharge destination. Discharge destination is important to providers and patients. The ability to accurately predict discharge destination preoperatively can improve hospital resource utilization and help set patient and family expectations.

METHODS: Cohort analysis of the 2018 American College of Surgeon National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (ACS-NSQIP) Participant Use File of patients undergoing operations with complete data point sets: age, sex, operation work relative-value units; mFI-clinical based on 12 clinical findings, mFI-labs based on seven laboratory values. The nine hierarchical destinations: home, home with assistance, multi-level community, unskilled-care facility, rehabilitation facility, skilled-nursing facility, acute care hospital, hospice, or death, from best to worst outcome. Data were analyzed using univariate analysis, multiple logistic regression and supervised learning artificial neural networks.

RESULTS: Univariate and multivariate in general showed that patients with higher mFI-clinical and mFI-lab scores, as well as older age and more complex operations were more likely to be discharged to facilities other than home. However, these statistical techniques could not predict the exact destination. An artificial neural network analysis demonstrated perfect location prediction in 64.9% of cases and within one level of prefect prediction is 87.4%.

CONCLUSIONS: Using a limited number of preoperative factors, combining the mFI-clinical with laboratory values significantly improves the destination prediction performance significantly better than using the values separately. Preoperative knowledge of the likely discharge destination can benefit postoperative care planning and delivery.

PMID:35339003 | DOI:10.1016/j.jss.2022.02.029

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The relationship between abortion rates and economic fluctuations

Econ Hum Biol. 2022 Mar 13;46:101120. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101120. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

We analyze the relationship between abortions and economic fluctuation at the U.S. state level for the 1995-2016 period. We do not find a statistically significant association between the overall abortion rate and the unemployment rate across the full sample period. However, we observe a procyclical association from approximately 2004 to 2010, during which a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a roughly 5% decrease in the abortion rate. This procyclical association is confirmed when we subsample our data to the 2005-2016 period. Our subgroup analysis indicates a procyclical association for the abortion rates for younger women, while we do not observe statistically significant associations when the analysis is stratified by race or ethnicity. The associations we observe for the younger age groups are especially pronounced in states with restrictions on Medicaid funding of abortions. Our analysis suggests that economic conditions may be an important factor in the reproductive choices by women.

PMID:35338909 | DOI:10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101120

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Outcomes of CMS-mandated fluid administration among fluid-overloaded patients with sepsis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Am J Emerg Med. 2022 Mar 10;55:157-166. doi: 10.1016/j.ajem.2022.03.004. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The outcomes of large-volume IVF administration to septic shock patients with comorbid congestive heart failure (CHF) and/or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are uncertain and widely debated in the existing literature. Despite this uncertainty, CMS continues to recommend that 30 ml/kg of an intravenous crystalloid solution be administered to patients in septic shock starting within 3 h of presentation. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the relationship between adherence to this guideline and outcomes among patients whose underlying comorbidities present a risk of fluid overload.

METHODS: Our search was conducted on PubMed and Scopus through November 5, 2021 to identify studies that evaluated clinical outcomes among septic patients with CHF/ESRD based on volume of fluid administered. The primary outcome measured was mortality at 30 days post-hospital discharge. Other outcomes included the rates of vasopressor requirements, invasive mechanical ventilation during hospitalization, as well as length of stay in the intensive care unit and/or hospital. We used random effects meta-analysis when two or more studies reported the same outcome.

RESULTS: We included five studies in the final meta-analysis, which comprised 5804 patients, 5260 (91%) of whom received non-aggressive fluid resuscitation, as defined by the studies’ authors. Random-effects meta-analysis for all-cause mortality showed that aggressive fluid resuscitation was associated with statistically non-significant increased odds of mortality (OR 1.42, 95% CI 0.88-2.3, P = 0.15, I2 = 35%). There was no statistical association between volume of IVF administration and other outcomes evaluated.

CONCLUSION: Among septic shock patients with CHF and/or ESRD, administration of greater than or equal to 30 ml/kg IVF was associated with a non-significant increase in odds of mortality. All other outcomes measured were found to be non-significant, although there was a trend toward better outcomes among patients in the restricted-volume compared to the standard-volume IVF groups. Since this meta-analysis only included five observational studies, more studies are needed to guide an optimal volume and rate of fluid administration in this patient population.

PMID:35338881 | DOI:10.1016/j.ajem.2022.03.004

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Development and validation of a novel method “SpermX™” for high throughput differential extraction processing of sexual assault kits (SAKs) for DNA analysis

Forensic Sci Int Genet. 2022 Mar 21;59:102690. doi: 10.1016/j.fsigen.2022.102690. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The Sperm X method uses a nanotechnology derived polymer membrane that functions as a separation medium to effectively trap sperm cells while enabling efficient flow through of the digested epithelial cell DNA. This specialized membrane enabled development of a method that could significantly increase a forensic laboratory’s ability to obtain male sperm fraction DNA profiles. The SpermX device provides a rapid, reproducible procedure that is easy to implement in a single-tube format as well as high-throughput truly automated hands-free workflows. Validation studies, performed using the manual SpermX method, include sensitivity, stability, precision (reproducibility and repeatability), mixtures, and a method comparison to the traditional differential extraction. Sensitivity and method comparison studies demonstrated a wide range of sperm cells, from a high of over 2.78 million cells (9158 ng) to a low of 25 cells (83 pg), can be trapped by the SpermX membrane. Stability studies on various substrates (i.e., carpet, cotton, denim, polyester, and silk) and degraded semen gave the expected male DNA profiles. Data from the same operator and a different operator were consistent with low variance. Mixtures, with ratios ranging from approximately 10:1-18182:1, created to simulate real casework type samples including buccal/semen, vaginal epithelial/semen, and post coital swabs at different time intervals, were tested. A comparison of the SpermX method to the conventional differential extraction method resulted in comparable probative male profile allelic data and associated statistical probabilities. For low level sperm samples, down to 25 sperm cells (83 pg), the SpermX method outperformed the conventional differential extraction with more genotypic information and associated probabilities.

PMID:35338894 | DOI:10.1016/j.fsigen.2022.102690

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Effectiveness of nationwide programmatic testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection in migrants in England: a retrospective, population-based cohort study

Lancet Public Health. 2022 Mar 17:S2468-2667(22)00031-7. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00031-7. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In low-incidence countries, tuberculosis mainly affects migrants, mostly resulting from reactivation of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) acquired in high-incidence countries before migration. A nationwide primary care-based LTBI testing and treatment programme for migrants from high-incidence countries was therefore established in high tuberculosis incidence areas in England. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of this programme.

METHODS: We did a retrospective, population-based cohort study of migrants who registered in primary care between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2018, in 55 high-burden areas with programmatic LTBI testing and treatment. Eligible individuals were aged 16-35 years, born in a high-incidence country, and had entered England in the past 5 years. Individuals who tested interferon-γ release assay (IGRA)-negative were advised about symptoms of tuberculosis, whereas those who tested IGRA-positive were clinically assessed to rule out active tuberculosis and offered preventive therapy. The primary outcome was incident tuberculosis notified to the national Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system.

FINDINGS: Our cohort comprised 368 097 eligible individuals who had registered in primary care, of whom 37 268 (10·1%) were tested by the programme. 1446 incident cases of tuberculosis were identified: 166 cases in individuals who had IGRA testing (incidence 204 cases [95% CI 176-238] per 100 000 person-years) and 1280 in individuals without IGRA testing (82 cases [77-86] per 100 000 person-years). Overall, in our primary analysis including all diagnosed tuberculosis cases, a time-varying association was identified between LTBI testing and treatment and lower risk of incident tuberculosis (hazard ratio [HR] 0·76 [95% CI 0·63-0·91]) when compared with no testing. In stratified analysis by follow-up period, the intervention was associated with higher risk of tuberculosis diagnosis during the first 6 months of follow-up (9·93 [7·63-12·9) and a lower risk after 6 months (0·57 [0·41-0·79]). IGRA-positive individuals had higher risk of tuberculosis diagnosis than IGRA-negative individuals (31·9 [20·4-49·8]). Of 37 268 migrants who were tested, 6640 (17·8%) were IGRA-positive, of whom 1740 (26·2%) started preventive treatment. LTBI treatment lowered the risk of tuberculosis: of 135 incident cases in the IGRA-positive cohort, seven cases were diagnosed in the treated group (1·87 cases [95% CI 0·89-3·93] per 1000 person-years) and 128 cases were diagnosed in the untreated group (10·9 cases [9·16-12·9] per 1000 person-years; HR 0·14 [95% CI 0·06-0·32]).

INTERPRETATION: A low proportion of eligible migrants were tested by the programme and a small proportion of those testing positive started treatment. Despite this, programmatic LTBI testing and treatment of individuals migrating to a low-incidence region is effective at diagnosing active tuberculosis earlier and lowers the long-term risk of progression to tuberculosis. Increasing programme participation and treatment rates for those testing positive could substantially impact national tuberculosis incidence.

FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections.

PMID:35338849 | DOI:10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00031-7

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Endogenous sex hormones, aromatase activity and lung cancer risk in postmenopausal never-smoking women

Int J Cancer. 2022 Mar 26. doi: 10.1002/ijc.34005. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Although reproductive factors have been repeatedly associated with lung cancer risk, no study to date has directly evaluated the relationship with endogenous sex hormones nor with aromatase activity in postmenopausal never-smoking women. A case-control study of 397 incident lung cancer cases and their individually matched controls, nested within the Shanghai Women’s Health Study, was conducted among postmenopausal women who were lifetime never smokers. Pre-diagnostic concentrations of sex hormones was quantitated using LC-MS/MS assays in plasma. The product-substrate molar ratio of estrone to androstenedione was used as an index of aromatase activity (IAA). Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for lung cancer. Baseline concentrations of estradiol, free testosterone and IAA were inversely associated with subsequent risk of lung cancer in multivariable-adjusted models. When further adjusted for body mass index, the inverse association with estradiol was attenuated and no longer statistically significant, but the association with free testosterone and IAA remained. In analyses confined to participants having never used menopausal hormone therapy in 376 case-control pairs, the inverse association with free testosterone and IAA was slightly strengthened. OR for the highest vs the lowest quartile of free testosterone was 0.55 (95% CI = 0.34 to 0.90; Ptrend = 0.03), and the corresponding OR for IAA was 0.57 (95% CI = 0.34 to 0.96; Ptrend = 0.04). This study, for the first time, suggests that higher levels of circulating free testosterone and estimated aromatase activity may be associated with lower lung cancer risk in postmenopausal never-smoking women.

PMID:35338778 | DOI:10.1002/ijc.34005

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Effect of electronic prescriptions on the safety of hospitalized pediatric patients

Arch Argent Pediatr. 2022 Apr;120(2):111-117. doi: 10.5546/aap.2022.eng.111. Epub 2022 Jan 22.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Prescription errors are the most common cause of preventable errors. Electronic prescription (EP) systems may help to reduce errors and improve the quality of care.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of EP on the prevalence of prescription errors and related adverse events (AE) among hospitalized pediatric patients. To assess EP adherence, acceptability, and suitability among users.

METHODS: Hybrid, descriptive, and quasi-experimental, before-and-after design. Prescriptions made to hospitalized patients were included, estimating the prevalence of prescription errors and related AE in the pre- and post- EP implementation periods at a children’s hospital (CH) and a general hospital (GH) used as control. Adherence was assessed based on the proportion of EP among all prescriptions registered in the post-implementation period. The acceptability and suitability of EP implementation was assessed via a user survey.

RESULTS: The prevalence of prescription errors pre- and post-EP implementation at the CH was compared and a statistically significant reduction was observed in both hospitals: CH: 29.1 versus 19.9 prescription errors/100 prescriptions (OR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.34-2.02; p < 0.01). GH: 24.9 versus 13.6 prescription errors/100 prescriptions (OR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.5-2.8; p < 0.01). The rate of overall adherence to EP was 83%. The implementation of EP was adequately acceptable and suitable.

CONCLUSION: The prevalence of prescription errors reduced 30% after the implementation of EP. The overall adherence to EP was adequate.

PMID:35338815 | DOI:10.5546/aap.2022.eng.111

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Canine oral melanoma: a retrospective study of 101 dogs treated with a 6 Gy x 6 radiotherapy protocol

Vet Comp Oncol. 2022 Mar 26. doi: 10.1111/vco.12815. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

One radiotherapy (RT) protocol used for canine oral melanoma (OM) gives 36 Gy total, in six weekly or biweekly fractions (6 Gy x 6). This retrospective study characterizes oncologic outcomes for a relatively large group of dogs treated with this protocol and determines whether radiation dose intensity (weekly versus biweekly) affected either progression-free or overall survival (PFS and OS). Dogs were included if 6 Gy x 6 was used to treat grossly-evident OM, or if RT was used postoperatively in the subclinical disease setting. Kaplan-Meier statistics and Cox regression modeling were used to determine the predictive or prognostic value of mitotic count, bony lysis, WHO stage (I, II, III, or IV), using systemic anti-cancer therapies, tumour burden at the time of RT (macroscopic vs. subclinical), radiation dose intensity (weekly versus biweekly), and treatment planning type (manual versus computerized). The median PFS and OS times for all dogs (n = 101) were 171 and 232 days, respectively. On univariate analysis PFS and OS were significantly longer (p = <0.05) with subclinical tumour burden, WHO stages I or II, and weekly irradiation. On multivariable analysis, only tumor stage remained significant; therefore, cases were grouped by WHO stage (I/II versus III/IV). With low WHO stage (I/II), PFS and OS were longer when irradiating subclinical disease (PFS: risk ratio = 0.449, p = 0.032; OS: risk ratio = 0.422, p = 0.022); this was not true for high WHO stage (III/IV). When accounting for other factors, radiation dose intensity had no measurable impact on survival in either staging group.

PMID:35338766 | DOI:10.1111/vco.12815

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Impact of Temporal Resolution and Methods for Correction on Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Perfusion Quantification

J Magn Reson Imaging. 2022 Mar 26. doi: 10.1002/jmri.28180. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Acquisition of magnetic resonance first-pass perfusion images is synchronized to the patient’s heart rate (HR) and governs the temporal resolution. This is inherently linked to the process of myocardial blood flow (MBF) quantification and impacts MBF accuracy but to an unclear extent.

PURPOSE: To assess the impact of temporal resolution on quantitative perfusion and compare approaches for accounting for its variability.

STUDY TYPE: Prospective phantom and retrospective clinical study.

POPULATION AND PHANTOM: Simulations, a cardiac perfusion phantom, and 30 patients with (16, 53%) or without (14, 47%) coronary artery disease.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 3.0 T/2D saturation recovery spoiled gradient echo sequence.

ASSESSMENT: Dynamic perfusion data were simulated for a range of reference MBF (1 mL/g/min-5 mL/g/min) and HR (30 bpm-150 bpm). Perfusion imaging was performed in patients and a phantom for different temporal resolutions. MBF and myocardial perfusion reserve (MPR) were quantified without correction for temporal resolution or following correction by either MBF scaling based on the sampling interval or data interpolation prior to quantification. Simulated data were quantified using Fermi deconvolution, truncated singular value decomposition, and one-compartment modeling, whereas phantom and clinical data were quantified using Fermi deconvolution alone.

STATISTICAL TESTS: Shapiro-Wilk tests for normality, percentage error (PE) for measuring MBF accuracy in simulations, and one-way repeated measures analysis of variance with Bonferroni correction to compare clinical MBF and MPR. Statistical significance set at P < 0.05.

RESULTS: For Fermi deconvolution and an example simulated 1 mL/g/min, the MBF PE without correction for temporal resolution was between 55.4% and -62.7% across 30-150 bpm. PE was between -22.2% and -6.8% following MBF scaling and between -14.2% and -14.2% following data interpolation across the same HR. An interpolated HR of 240 bpm reduced PE to ≤10%. Clinical rest and stress MBF and MPR were significantly different between analyses.

DATA CONCLUSION: Accurate perfusion quantification needs to account for the variability of temporal resolution, with data interpolation prior to quantification reducing MBF variability across different resolutions.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY STAGE: 1.

PMID:35338754 | DOI:10.1002/jmri.28180

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A Comparison of the Oropharyngeal Leak Pressure between Three Second Generation Supraglottic Airway Devices During Laparoscopic Surgery in Pediatric Patients

Paediatr Anaesth. 2022 Mar 26. doi: 10.1111/pan.14447. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown Proseal LMA, and I gel similar to endotracheal intubation in ventilatory ability in pediatric laparoscopic surgeries.

AIMS: The primary aim of this study was to assess whether there is a significant difference in the oropharyngeal leak pressure between Ambu Auragrain, I-gel, and Proseal LMA during pediatric laparoscopic surgery.

METHODS: In this randomized controlled trial, 90 male patients of American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status I aged between 6 months and 10 years who were scheduled for laparoscopic single-sided inguinal hernia repair were recruited and randomly allocated to three groups in which airway was secured with Ambu Auragain, I gel or Proseal LMA. The primary outcome was oropharyngeal leak pressure. The secondary outcomes were peak pressures before and after pneumoperitoneum, fiberoptic view, insertion attempts, insertion time, manipulations, perioperative and postoperative anaesthesia-related problems. Continuous variables were compared using the one way Analysis of variance or the Kruskal-Wallis test with post hoc Turkey analysis. Categorical and ordinal data were compared using the chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test.

RESULTS: Oropharyngeal leak pressure before pneumoperitoneum was higher with I gel as compared to Ambu Auragain (27.36 ± 5.72 cm of H2 O vs 23.56 ± 5.72 cm of H2 O) (p-value 0.021) and PLMA (27.36 ± 5.72 cm of H2 O vs 23.24 ± 4.35 cm of H2 O) (p-value 0.011) and was statistically significant. Oropharyngeal leak pressure after pneumoperitoneum was also higher with I gel as compared to Ambu Auragain (31.58 ± 4.35 cm of H2 O vs 26.83 ± 5.00 cm of H2 O) (p-value 0.001) and Proseal LMA (31.58 ± 4.35 cm of H2 O vs 27.03 ± 3.80 cm of H2 O) (p-value 0.002) and was statistically significant. Oropharyngeal leak pressures of Ambu Auragain and Proseal LMA were comparable. Postoperative complications were similar in all the supraglottic airway devices. No regurgitation or aspiration related problem was observed in our study.

CONCLUSION: I gel had a higher oropharyngeal leak pressure than the other two supraglottic airway devices and therefore may represent a better choice in situations where higher ventilatory pressures may be necessary, for example, in extremes of weight trendelenburg position etc.

PMID:35338764 | DOI:10.1111/pan.14447