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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Association of Anesthesiologist Staffing Ratio With Surgical Patient Morbidity and Mortality

JAMA Surg. 2022 Jul 20. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2022.2804. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Recent studies have investigated the effect of overlapping surgeon responsibilities or nurse to patient staffing ratios on patient outcomes, but the association of overlapping anesthesiologist responsibilities with patient outcomes remains unexplored to our knowledge.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between different levels of anesthesiologist staffing ratios and surgical patient morbidity and mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective, matched cohort study consisting of major noncardiac inpatient surgical procedures performed from January 1, 2010, to October 31, 2017, was conducted in 23 US academic and private hospitals. A total of 866 453 adult patients (aged ≥18 years) undergoing major inpatient surgery within the Multicenter Perioperative Outcomes Group electronic health record registry were included. Anesthesiologist sign-in and sign-out times were used to calculate a continuous time-weighted average staffing ratio variable for each operation. Propensity score-matching methods were applied to create balanced sample groups with respect to patient-, operative-, and hospital-level confounders and resulted in 4 groups based on anesthesiologist staffing ratio. Groups consisted of patients receiving care from an anesthesiologist covering 1 operation (group 1), more than 1 to no more than 2 overlapping operations (group 1-2), more than 2 to no more than 3 overlapping operations (group 2-3), and more than 3 to no more than 4 overlapping operations (group 3-4). Data analysis was performed from October 2019 to October 2021.

EXPOSURE: Undergoing a major inpatient surgical operation that involved an anesthesiologist providing care for up to 4 overlapping operations.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary composite outcome was 30-day mortality and 6 major surgical morbidities (cardiac, respiratory, gastrointestinal, urinary, bleeding, and infectious complications) derived from International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision discharge diagnosis codes.

RESULTS: In all, 578 815 adult patients (mean [SD] age, 55.7 [16.2] years; 55.1% female) were analyzed. After matching operations according to anesthesiologist staffing ratio, 48 555 patients were in group 1; 247 057, group 1-2; 216 193, group 2-3; and 67 010, group 3-4. Increasing anesthesiologist coverage responsibilities was associated with an increase in risk-adjusted surgical patient morbidity and mortality. Compared with patients in group 1-2, those in group 2-3 had a 4% relative increase in risk-adjusted mortality and morbidity (5.06% vs 5.25%; adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08; P = .02) and those in group 3-4 had a 14% increase in risk-adjusted mortality and morbidity (5.06% vs 5.75%; AOR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.09-1.21; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study’s findings suggest that increasing overlapping coverage by anesthesiologists is associated with increased surgical patient morbidity and mortality. Therefore, the potential effects of staffing ratios in perioperative team models should be considered in clinical coverage efforts.

PMID:35857304 | DOI:10.1001/jamasurg.2022.2804

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Development and Validation of a Model for Opioid Prescribing Following Gynecological Surgery

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Jul 1;5(7):e2222973. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.22973.

ABSTRACT

IMPORTANCE: Overprescription of opioid medications following surgery is well documented. Current prescribing models have been proposed in narrow patient populations, which limits their generalizability.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a model for predicting outpatient opioid use following a range of gynecological surgical procedures.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this prognostic study, statistical models were explored using data from a training cohort of participants undergoing gynecological surgery for benign and malignant indications enrolled prospectively at a single institution’s academic gynecologic oncology practice from February 2018 to March 2019 (cohort 1) and considering 39 candidate predictors of opioid use. Final models were internally validated using a separate testing cohort enrolled from May 2019 to February 2020 (cohort 2). The best final model was updated by combining cohorts, and an online calculator was created. Data analysis was performed from March to May 2020.

EXPOSURES: Participants completed a preoperative survey and weekly postoperative assessments (up to 6 weeks) following gynecological surgery. Pain management was at the discretion of clinical practitioners.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The response variable used in model development was number of pills used postoperatively, and the primary outcome was model performance using ordinal concordance and Brier score.

RESULTS: Data from 382 female adult participants (mean age, 56 years; range, 18-87 years) undergoing gynecological surgery (minimally invasive procedures, 158 patients [73%] in cohort 1 and 118 patients [71%] in cohort 2; open surgical procedures, 58 patients [27%] in cohort 1 and 48 patients [29%] in cohort 2) were included in model development. One hundred forty-seven patients (38%) used 0 pills after hospital discharge, and the mean (SD) number of pills used was 7 (10) (median [IQR], 3 [0-10] pills). The model used 7 predictors: age, educational attainment, smoking history, anticipated pain medication use, anxiety regarding surgery, operative time, and preoperative pregabalin administration. The ordinal concordance was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.68) for predicting 5 or more pills (Brier score, 0.22), 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.68) for predicting 10 or more pills (Brier score, 0.18), and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.68) for predicting 15 or more pills (Brier score, 0.14).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This model provides individualized estimates of outpatient opioid use following a range of gynecological surgical procedures for benign and malignant indications with all model inputs available at the time of procedure closing. Implementation of this model into the clinical setting is currently ongoing, with plans for additional validation in other surgical populations.

PMID:35857323 | DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.22973

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Survival of Patients Treated with Extracorporeal Hemoadsorption and Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation: Results from a Nation-Wide Registry

ASAIO J. 2022 Jul 20. doi: 10.1097/MAT.0000000000001788. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Extracorporeal hemoadsorption with the CytoSorb adsorber is increasingly being used during the past years. The use in combination with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is feasible, but frequency of its use and outcomes have not been assessed in larger cohorts. We analyzed all patients treated with veno-venous (VV) ECMO either with or without CytoSorb in Germany from 2017 to 2019. Data were retrieved from a nationwide claim dataset collected by the Research Data Center of the Federal Bureau of Statistics. During this three-year episode, 7,699 patients were treated with VV ECMO. Among these, the number of CytoSorb-treated patients constantly increased from 156 (6.6%) in 2017 to 299 (11.8%) in 2019. In this large cohort hemoadsorption with the CytoSorb adsorber was associated with higher mortality and increased treatment costs. Due to limited information in the dataset about the severity of disease comparison of outcomes of patients treated with and without CytoSorb has to be interpreted with caution. Further studies have to examine if this finding is due to a negative effect of hemoadsorption with the CytoSorb device or is rather to be attributed to disease severity.

PMID:35857288 | DOI:10.1097/MAT.0000000000001788

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Metabolic changes of the reduction of manganese intake in the hepatic encephalopathy rat: NMR- and MS-based metabolomics study

Biometals. 2022 Jul 20. doi: 10.1007/s10534-022-00415-3. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

To investigate the metabolic changes in type C hepatic encephalopathy (CHE) rats after reducing manganese (Mn) intake. A total of 80 Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into control group and CHE groups (induced by intraperitoneal injection of thioacetamide at a dose of 250 mg/kg of body weight twice a week for 6 weeks). CHE rats were subdivided into 1Mn group (fed a standard diet, with 10 mg Mn/kg feed), 0.5Mn group (half-Mn diet), 0.25Mn group (quarter-Mn diet) and 0Mn group (no-Mn diet) for 4 to 8 weeks. Morris water maze (MWM), Y maze and narrow beam test (NBT) were used to evaluate cognitive and motor functions. Blood ammonia, brain Mn content, the number of GS-positive cells, and glutamine synthetase (GS) activity were measured. The metabolic changes of CHE rats were investigated using hydrogen-nuclear magnetic resonance and mass spectrometry. Multivariate statistical analysis was used to analyze the results. Significantly decreased numbers of entries in target area of MWM and Y maze, longer NBT latency and total time, higher blood ammonia, brain Mn content and GS activity were found in CHE rats. After reducing Mn intake, CHE rats had better behavioral performance, significantly lower blood ammonia, brain Mn content and GS activity. The main up-regulated metabolites were Ala, GABA, Glu, Gln, Lac, Tyr, Phe in 1Mn rats. After reducing Mn intake, metabolites returned to normal level at different degrees. Reducing Mn intake could reduce brain Mn content and blood ammonia, regulate GS activity and amino acid metabolism, ultimately improve behavioral performance in CHE rats.

PMID:35857253 | DOI:10.1007/s10534-022-00415-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Glioblastoma multiforme in patients with human immunodeficiency virus: an integrated review and analysis

J Neurooncol. 2022 Jul 20. doi: 10.1007/s11060-022-04095-4. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: As lifespans for persons living with HIV (PLWH) have improved over the last decade, there has been a simultaneous increase in non-AIDS-related cancer in that group. However, there is a paucity of data regarding the incidence of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) in PLWH. Better understanding of the oncogenesis, natural history, and treatment outcomes of GBM in PLWH should lead to improved treatment strategies.

METHODS: We performed a comprehensive literature search of six electronic databases to identify eligible cases of GBM among PLWH. Kaplan-Meier estimates, Fisher’s exact test, and logistic regression were used to interrogate the data. Epidemiologic data on global HIV prevalence was obtained from the 2016 UNAIDS incidence report, and CNS cancer incidence was obtained from the GDB 2016 Brain and Other CNS Cancer Collaborators.

RESULTS: There is an inverse relationship between the incidence of HIV and CNS cancer globally. Median overall survival (OS) from GBM diagnosis was 8 months. Estimates for survival at 1 and 2 years were 28 and 5%, respectively. There were no statistically significant predictors of OS in this setting. There was a significant difference (p < 0.01) in OS in PLWH and GBM when compared to TCGA age matched cohorts.

CONCLUSION: The diagnosis of GBM in PLWH is severely underreported in the literature. Despite maximal treatment, OS in this patient population is significantly less than in HIV-negative people. There was a poor prognosis of GBM in PLWH, which is inconsistent with previous reports. Further investigation is required for PLWH and concomitant GBM. Analyses must consider if HAART is maintained in PLWH during GBM treatment.

PMID:35857248 | DOI:10.1007/s11060-022-04095-4

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

From Policy to Prediction: Forecasting COVID-19 Dynamics Under Imperfect Vaccination

Bull Math Biol. 2022 Jul 20;84(9):90. doi: 10.1007/s11538-022-01047-x.

ABSTRACT

Understanding the joint impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 development is important for making public health decisions that control the pandemic. Recently, we created a method in forecasting the daily number of confirmed cases of infectious diseases by combining a mechanistic ordinary differential equation (ODE) model for infectious classes and a generalized boosting machine learning model (GBM) for predicting how public health policies and mobility data affect the transmission rate in the ODE model (Wang et al. in Bull Math Biol 84:57, 2022). In this paper, we extend the method to the post-vaccination period, accordingly obtain a retrospective forecast of COVID-19 daily confirmed cases in the US, and identify the relative influence of the policies used as the predictor variables. In particular, our ODE model contains both partially and fully vaccinated compartments and accounts for the breakthrough cases, that is, vaccinated individuals can still get infected. Our results indicate that the inclusion of data on non-pharmaceutical interventions can significantly improve the accuracy of the predictions. With the use of policy data, the model predicts the number of daily infected cases up to 35 days in the future, with an average mean absolute percentage error of [Formula: see text], which is further improved to [Formula: see text] if combined with human mobility data. Moreover, the most influential predictor variables are the policies of restrictions on gatherings, testing and school closing. The modeling approach used in this work can help policymakers design control measures as variant strains threaten public health in the future.

PMID:35857207 | DOI:10.1007/s11538-022-01047-x

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Reduction of urea test ordering in the emergency department: multicomponent intervention including education, electronic ordering, and data feedback

CJEM. 2022 Jul 20. doi: 10.1007/s43678-022-00333-w. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: In the emergency department (ED), laboratory testing accounts for a significant portion of the medical assessment. Although excess laboratory test ordering has been proven to be prevalent, different types of interventions have been used to encourage a behavioural change in how physicians order tests. In one western Canadian hospital medicine program, a quality improvement project aimed to reduce the total monthly blood urea nitrogen (BUN) test ordered by physicians was found to be successful. The objective of this project was to evaluate a similar multicomponent intervention aimed at ED physician ordering, with the primary goal of reducing the number of monthly BUN tests ordered per ED visit.

METHODS: A pre post intervention design was conducted over 12-months. The first intervention component was an educational presentation conducted by physician leaders. Second, a regularly used order panel within the ED electronic order system was modified, removing the BUN test. The third component involved audit and feedback; the total monthly BUN test ordered for the ED department post intervention start was shared with all ED physicians twice (at 5 and 12 months).An interrupted time series analysis was completed to evaluate the multicomponent intervention effect.

RESULTS: The total monthly ordered BUN test declined from an average of 1905 pre-intervention to 448 post-intervention, and the total monthly BUN test to total ED visit ratio declined from 0.46 to 0.1. These results were a statistically significant reduction in physician BUN test ordering.

CONCLUSIONS: Targeted education, order panel design and data feedback interventions can impact physician ordering behaviour in the emergent healthcare context, where diagnostic tests are often over used.

PMID:35857240 | DOI:10.1007/s43678-022-00333-w

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Comparative Efficacy of Umeclidinium/Vilanterol Versus Other Bronchodilators for the Treatment of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Network Meta-Analysis

Adv Ther. 2022 Jul 20. doi: 10.1007/s12325-022-02234-x. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Few randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have directly compared long-acting muscarinic antagonist/long-acting β2-agonist (LAMA/LABA) dual maintenance therapies for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This systematic literature review and network meta-analysis (NMA) compared the efficacy of umeclidinium/vilanterol (UMEC/VI) versus other dual and mono-bronchodilator therapies in symptomatic patients with COPD.

METHODS: A systematic literature review (October 2015-November 2020) was performed to identify RCTs ≥ 8 weeks long in adult patients with COPD that compared LAMA/LABA combinations against any long-acting bronchodilator-containing dual therapy or monotherapy. Data extracted on changes from baseline in trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score, Transitional Dyspnoea Index (TDI) focal score, rescue medication use and moderate/severe exacerbation rate were analysed using an NMA in a frequentist framework. The primary comparison was at 24 weeks. Fixed effects model results are presented.

RESULTS: The NMA included 69 full-length publications (including 10 GSK clinical study reports) reporting 49 studies. At 24 weeks, UMEC/VI provided statistically significant greater improvements in FEV1 versus all dual therapy and monotherapy comparators. UMEC/VI provided similar improvements in SGRQ total score compared with all other LAMA/LABAs, and significantly greater improvements versus UMEC 125 μg, glycopyrronium 50 μg, glycopyrronium 18 μg, tiotropium 18 μg and salmeterol 50 μg. UMEC/VI also provided significantly better outcomes versus some comparators for TDI focal score, rescue medication use, annualised moderate/severe exacerbation rate, and time to first moderate/severe exacerbation.

CONCLUSION: UMEC/VI provided generally better outcomes compared with LAMA or LABA monotherapies, and consistent improvements in lung function (measured by change from baseline in trough FEV1 at 24 weeks) versus dual therapies. Treatment with UMEC/VI may improve outcomes for symptomatic patients with COPD compared with alternative maintenance treatments.

PMID:35857184 | DOI:10.1007/s12325-022-02234-x

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Convergent and criterion validity of PROMIS anxiety measures relative to six legacy measures and a structured diagnostic interview for anxiety in cancer patients

J Patient Rep Outcomes. 2022 Jul 20;6(1):80. doi: 10.1186/s41687-022-00477-4.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Detecting anxiety in oncology patients is important, requiring valid yet brief measures. One increasingly popular approach is the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS); however, its validity is not well established in oncology. We assessed the convergent and criterion validity of PROMIS anxiety measures in an oncology sample.

METHODS: 132 oncology/haematology outpatients completed the PROMIS Anxiety Computer Adaptive Test (PROMIS-A-CAT) and the 7 item (original) PROMIS Anxiety Short Form (PROMIS-A-SF) along with six well-established measures: Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Anxiety (HADS-A); Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7); Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale-Anxiety (DASS-A) and Stress (DASS-S); Distress Thermometer (DT) and PSYCH-6. Correlations, area under the curve (AUC) and diagnostic accuracy statistics were calculated with Structured Clinical Interview as the reference standard.

RESULTS: Both PROMIS measures correlated with all legacy measures at p < .001 (Rho = .56-.83). AUCs (> .80) were good for both PROMIS measures and comparable to or better than all legacy measures. At the recommended mild cut-point (55), PROMIS-A-SF had sensitivity (.67) comparable to or better than all the legacy measures, whereas PROMIS-A-CAT sensitivity (.59) was lower than GAD-7 (.67) and HADS-A (.62), but comparable to PSYCH-6 and higher than DASS-A, DASS-S and DT. Sensitivity for both was .79. A reduced cut-point of 51 on both PROMIS measures improved sensitivity (.83-.84) although specificity was only adequate (.61-.62).

CONCLUSIONS: The convergent and criterion validity of the PROMIS anxiety measures in cancer populations was confirmed as equivalent, but not superior to, established measures (GAD-7 and HADS-A). The PROMIS-A-CAT did not demonstrate clear advantages over PROMIS-A-SF.

PMID:35857151 | DOI:10.1186/s41687-022-00477-4

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Characterizing the volume of surgery and post-operative complications during the COVID-19 pandemic

Langenbecks Arch Surg. 2022 Jul 20. doi: 10.1007/s00423-022-02605-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented changes in volume and quality of surgery. Utilizing the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database, the current study assesses the impact of COVID-19 on surgical volume during each quarter of 2020 in comparison to 2019. Quality of surgical care during 2020 was also investigated by assessing postoperative complications, readmissions, and reoperations during 2020 in comparison to the previous 5 years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: The NSQIP database was queried from 2015 to 2020. Descriptive statistics and a chi-squared test were utilized to compare demographic variables. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average time-series model was fit to assess the trend and seasonality of complications from 2015 to 2019 and was used to forecast the proportion of complications in the year 2020 and compared the forecast with the actual proportions graphically.

RESULTS: There were fewer patients operated on in 2020 compared to 2019, with the most dramatic drop in Q2 with a nearly 27% decrease. Patients with ASA class 3 or greater were operated on at a greater proportion in every quarter of 2020. Q2 of 2020 represented the highest proportion of any operative complications since 2015 at ~13%. Q4 of 2020 demonstrated a return to 2020 Q1 complication proportions.

CONCLUSION: Surgical volume was heavily affected in 2020, particularly in Q2. Patients during Q2 of 2020 were generally of a higher ASA class and had increased operative complications. Operative volume and overall surgical complication rate normalized over the next two quarters.

PMID:35857096 | DOI:10.1007/s00423-022-02605-6