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COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Through the Lens of Modeling

Glob Health Sci Pract. 2021 Jul 1;9(2):220-228. doi: 10.9745/GHSP-D-21-00233. Print 2021 Jun 30.

NO ABSTRACT

PMID:34234020 | DOI:10.9745/GHSP-D-21-00233

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Awake prone positioning in non-intubated patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure due to COVID-19: A systematic review of proportional outcomes comparing observational studies with and without awake prone positioning in the setting of COVID-19

Respir Care. 2021 Jul 7:respcare.09191. doi: 10.4187/respcare.09191. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Background Awake prone positioning (APP) has been advocated to improve oxygenation and prevent intubations of patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This paper aims to synthesize the available evidence on the efficacy of APP.Methods: We performed a systematic review of proportional outcomes from observational studies to compare intubation rate in patients treated with APP or with standard care.Results: A total of 46 published and 4 unpublished observational studies that included 2994 patients were included, of which 921 patients were managed with APP, and 870 patients were managed with usual care. APP was associated with significant improvement of oxygenation parameters in 381 cases of 19 studies that reported this outcome. Among the 41 studies assessing intubation rates (870 patients treated with APP, and 852 patients treated with usual care), the intubation rate was 27%(95%CI, 19 to 37%), as compared to 30%(95%CI, 20 to 42%)(p=0.71), even when duration of application, use of adjunctive respiratory assist device (high flow nasal cannula or non-invasive ventilation) and severity of oxygenation deficit were taken into account. There appeared to be a trend toward improved mortality when treated with APP was compared with usual care (11% v.s. 22%), which was not statistically significant.Conclusions: APP was associated with improvement of oxygenation but did not reduce the intubation rate in patients with acute respiratory failure due to COVID-19. This finding is limited by the high heterogeneity and the observational nature of included studies. Randomized controlled clinical studies are needed to definitively assess whether APP could improve key outcome such as intubation and mortality rate in these patients.

PMID:34234032 | DOI:10.4187/respcare.09191

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Trajectories of mid-life to elderly adulthood BMI and incident hypertension: the China Health and Nutrition Survey

BMJ Open. 2021 Jul 7;11(7):e047920. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-047920.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study is designed to identify different body mass index (BMI) trajectories of individuals aged 40-70 years and test the effect of distinct BMI trajectories on incident hypertension.

DESIGN: The accelerated longitudinal design was used for this study.

METHODS: The study drew data from the third to ninth China Health and Nutrition Surveys (CHNS), and 4697 participants were included between 1991 and 2015. As analysed, three distinct individual BMI trajectories were identified by the latent class growth mixed model (LCGMM). Then, BMI values and BMI slopes were worked out through calculation with LCGMM trajectory parameters and their primary derivatives, respectively. Later, Cox proportional hazard models were applied to examine BMI values and slopes, and find out the relationship between the said predicted data and incident hypertension for different classes.

RESULTS: Three different trajectory classes were identified, that is, low-stable class (n=3711), sharp-increasing class (n=282) and high-stable class (n=704). Compared with the low-stable class, the adjusted HRs (95% CI) were 1.321 (1.119 to 1.559) and 1.504 (1.322 to 1.711) for the sharp-increasing class and the high-stable class, respectively. The HR (95% CI) for BMI values rose from 1.081 (1.030 to 1.135) to 1.221 (1.171 to 1.273) while the HR (95% CI) for BMI slopes dropped from 1.154 (1.100 to 1.211) to 0.983 (0.943 to 1.025). That is, the HR for BMI slopes were higher than that for BMI values for the class aged 40-47 years.

CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that the calibrated BMI trajectories for the period from mid-life to elderly adulthood have a significant effect on the risk of incident hypertension. The period from age 40 to 47 years is critical and has positive implications for the early prevention of hypertension.

PMID:34233991 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-047920

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Swedish nationwide time series analysis of influenza and suicide deaths from 1910 to 1978

BMJ Open. 2021 Jul 7;11(7):e049302. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049302.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: There is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic will be associated with an increase in suicides, but evidence supporting a link between pandemics and suicide is limited. Using data from the three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, we aimed to investigate whether an association exists between influenza deaths and suicide deaths.

DESIGN: Time series analysis.

SETTING: Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS: Deaths from influenza and suicides extracted from the Statistical Yearbook of Sweden for 1910-1978, covering three pandemics (the Spanish influenza, the Asian influenza and the Hong Kong influenza).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual suicide rates in Sweden among the whole population, men and women. Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models was implemented to explore if there is a short-term and/or long-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates with suicide rates during 1910-1978.

RESULTS: Between 1910 and 1978, there was no evidence of either short-term or long-term significant associations between influenza death rates and changes in suicides (β coefficients of 0.00002, p=0.931 and β=0.00103, p=0.764 for short-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates, respectively, with suicide rates, and β=-0.0002, p=0.998 and β=0.00211, p=0.962 for long-term relationship of increases and decreases in influenza death rates, respectively, with suicide rates). The same pattern emerged in separate analyses for men and women.

CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of short-term or long-term association between influenza death rates and suicide death rates across three 20th century pandemics.

PMID:34233997 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049302

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Patient-level and hospital-level variation and related time trends in COVID-19 case fatality rates during the first pandemic wave in England: multilevel modelling analysis of routine data

BMJ Qual Saf. 2021 Jul 7:bmjqs-2021-012990. doi: 10.1136/bmjqs-2021-012990. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: A report suggesting large between-hospital variations in mortality after admission for COVID-19 in England attracted much media attention but used crude rates. We aimed to quantify these variations between hospitals and over time during England’s first wave (March to July 2020) and assess available patient-level and hospital-level predictors to explain those variations.

METHODS: We used administrative data for England, augmented by hospital-level information. Admissions were extracted with COVID-19 codes. In-hospital death was the primary outcome. Risk-adjusted mortality ratios (standardised mortality ratios) and interhospital variation were calculated using multilevel logistic regression. Early-wave (March to April) and late-wave (May to July) periods were compared.

RESULTS: 74 781 admissions had a primary diagnosis of COVID-19, with 21 984 in-hospital deaths (29.4%); the 30-day total mortality rate was 28.8%. The crude in-hospital death rate fell in all ages and overall from 32.9% in March to 13.4% in July. Patient-level predictors included age, male gender, non-white ethnic group (early period only) and several comorbidities (obesity early period only). The only significant hospital-level predictor was daily COVID-19 admissions in the late period; we did not find a relation with staff absences for COVID-19, mechanical ventilation bed occupancies, total bed occupancies or bed occupancies for COVID-19 admissions in either period. Just 4 (3%) and 2 (2%) hospitals were high, and 5 (4%) and 0 hospitals were low funnel plot mortality outliers at 3 SD for early and late periods, respectively, after risk adjustment. We found no strong correlation between early and late hospital-level mortality (r=0.17, p=0.06).

CONCLUSIONS: There was modest variation in mortality following admission for COVID-19 between English hospitals after adjustment for risk and random variation, in marked contrast to early media reports. Early-period mortality did not predict late-period mortality.

PMID:34234008 | DOI:10.1136/bmjqs-2021-012990

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Low rates of serious complications and further procedures following surgery for base of thumb osteoarthritis: analysis of a national cohort of 43 076 surgeries

BMJ Open. 2021 Jul 7;11(7):e045614. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045614.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of further procedures and serious adverse events (SAEs) requiring admission to hospital following elective surgery for base of thumb osteoarthritis (BTOA), and the patient factors associated with these outcomes.

DESIGN: Population based cohort study.

SETTING: National Health Service using the national Hospital Episode Statistics data set linked to mortality records over a 19-year period (01 April 1998-31 March 2017).

PARTICIPANTS: 43 076 primary surgeries were followed longitudinally in secondary care until death or migration on 37 329 patients over 18 years of age.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of further thumb base procedures (including revision surgery or intra-articular steroid injection) at any time postoperatively, and local wound complications and systemic events (myocardial infarction, stroke, respiratory tract infection, venous thromboembolic events, urinary tract infection or renal failure) within 30 and 90 days. To identify patient factors associated with outcome, Fine and Gray model regression analysis was used to adjust for the competing risk of mortality in addition to age, overall comorbidity and socioeconomic status.

RESULTS: Over the 19 years, there was an increasing trend in surgeries undertaken. The rate of further thumb base procedures after any surgery was 1.39%; the lowest rates after simple trapeziectomy (1.12%), the highest rates after arthroplasty (3.84%) and arthrodesis (3.5%). When matched for age, comorbidity and socioeconomic status, those undergoing arthroplasty and arthrodesis were 2.5 times more likely to undergo a further procedure (subHR 2.51 (95% CI 1.81 to 3.48) and 2.55 (1.91 to 3.40)) than those undergoing simple trapeziectomy. Overall complication rates following surgery were 0.22% for serious local complications and 0.58% for systemic events within 90 days of surgery.

CONCLUSIONS: The number of patients proceeding to BTOA surgery has increased over the last 19 years, with a low rate of further thumb base procedures and SAEs after surgery overall registered. Arthrodesis and arthroplasty had a significantly higher revision rate.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03573765.

PMID:34233971 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045614

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Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) in autism spectrum disorder: protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled clinical trial

BMJ Open. 2021 Jul 7;11(7):e046830. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046830.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: There are no well-established biomedical treatments for the core symptoms of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). A small number of studies suggest that repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS), a non-invasive brain stimulation technique, may improve clinical and cognitive outcomes in ASD. We describe here the protocol for a funded multicentre randomised controlled clinical trial to investigate whether a course of rTMS to the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ), which has demonstrated abnormal brain activation in ASD, can improve social communication in adolescents and young adults with ASD.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will evaluate the safety and efficacy of a 4-week course of intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS, a variant of rTMS) in ASD. Participants meeting criteria for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition ASD (n=150, aged 14-40 years) will receive 20 sessions of either active iTBS (600 pulses) or sham iTBS (in which a sham coil mimics the sensation of iTBS, but no active stimulation is delivered) to the rTPJ. Participants will undergo a range of clinical, cognitive, epi/genetic, and neurophysiological assessments before and at multiple time points up to 6 months after iTBS. Safety will be assessed via a structured questionnaire and adverse event reporting. The study will be conducted from November 2020 to October 2024.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee of Monash Health (Melbourne, Australia) under Australia’s National Mutual Acceptance scheme. The trial will be conducted according to Good Clinical Practice, and findings will be written up for scholarly publication.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12620000890932).

PMID:34233985 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046830

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Targeted chemodenervation of the posterior belly of the digastric muscle for the management of jaw discomfort in facial synkinesis

J Plast Reconstr Aesthet Surg. 2021 Jun 9:S1748-6815(21)00297-7. doi: 10.1016/j.bjps.2021.05.045. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Botulinum toxin (BT-A) chemodenervation has been proved to significantly improve the physical and psychological well-being of patients suffering from facial synkinesis. Despite this, a cohort of patients has persistent tightness and discomfort around the angle of the jaw, which may be caused by synkinesis within the posterior belly of digastric (PBD) muscle. This study was designed to evaluate the benefits of ultrasound-guided BT-A injections into the PBD.

METHODS: Thirty-three patients with recalcitrant tightness and discomfort around the angle of the jaw, despite maximal facial therapy and platysmal chemodenervation were selected for inclusion. Patients underwent ultrasound-guided BT-A injection into the ipsilateral PBD muscle (skin puncture site 1 cm inferior and posterior to the angle of mandible). Outcomes consisted of the Facial Disability Index (FDI), Synkinesis Assessment Questionnaire (SAQ), and a visual analogue scale (VAS) designed to assess tightness and pain around the PBD when moving the jaw, swallowing, and masticating. Questionnaires were completed two weeks before and postinjection. Statistical analysis was performed using a paired t-test.

RESULTS: Nineteen patients completed the post-treatment outcome questionnaire. A statistically significant improvement was noted in the physical and social function aspects of the FDI and all aspects of the patient-reported VAS scores apart from tightness and pain on jaw retrusion and swallowing. There was no significant difference in the SAQ.

CONCLUSION: This study has demonstrated the patient-perceived benefit of ultrasound-targeted BT-A chemodenervation of PBD. This represents a low-risk treatment option that can be easily added to the repertoire of treatments offered to patients with post paralysis facial synkinesis.

PMID:34233854 | DOI:10.1016/j.bjps.2021.05.045

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Bacterial infection of fasciotomy wounds following decompression for acute compartment syndrome (bacterial infection of fasciotomy wounds)

Injury. 2021 Jun 28:S0020-1383(21)00581-7. doi: 10.1016/j.injury.2021.06.018. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Acute Compartment Syndrome (ACS) is a serious complication generally requiring treatment with an emergency decompressive fasciotomy. The aim of this study was to identify the most prevalent organisms involved in fasciotomy wound infections, and to determine the best strategies to mitigate this risk.

DESIGN: Retrospective review.

SETTING: Single tertiary referral centre.

PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 370) who underwent fasciotomy for emergency ACS were included in this study. Positive wound swabs and tissue samples within 30 days post fasciotomy were identified, and extended antibiotic sensitivities were recorded. Patient medical charts were reviewed to assess infection rate, causative organism(s), and clinical outcomes.

INTERVENTION: Fasciotomy Main Outcome Measurements: Most prevalent organism in fasciotomy wound infections, and the rate of any associated morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS: The overall infection rate was 16.7%. Infection rates were significantly higher in burns (27%) and trauma (22%) patients than vascular patients (13%) (p = 0.002). The most prevalent organism was Pseudomonas aeruginosa, isolated from 23% of all wound specimens and comprising over a third (35%) of infections overall. Ten patients required amputation for infection control. Six of these were secondary to Pseudomonas infection, whereby one patient mortality occurred.

CONCLUSION: In this series, one in six fasciotomies for ACS developed an infection within 30 days of their index procedure. Burns and trauma comprised the highest risk groups. Facultative anaerobes were the predominant organisms involved in fasciotomy wound infections. A combination of aminoglycosides and beta-lactams with quinolones should be considered when commencing empiric therapy for fasciotomy wound infections. Antibiotic coverage for routine peri‑operative prophylaxis following emergency decompression for acute compartment syndrome should be strongly considered, particularly in burns or trauma cases.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Aetiologic Level III.

PMID:34233855 | DOI:10.1016/j.injury.2021.06.018

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Contrast extravasation and outcome of endovascular therapy in acute ischaemic stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BMJ Open. 2021 Jul 7;11(7):e044917. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044917.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Contrast extravasation (CE) after endovascular therapy (EVT) is commonly present in acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) patients. Substantial uncertainties remain about the relationship between CE and the outcomes of EVT in patients with AIS. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate this association.

DESIGN: A systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies were performed.

DATA SOURCE: We systematically searched the Medline and Embase databases for relevant clinical studies. The last literature search in databases was performed in June 2020.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION: We included studies exploring the associations between CE and the outcomes of EVT in patients with AIS undergoing EVT.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two reviewers extracted relevant information and data from each article independently. We pooled ORs with CIs using a random-effects meta-analysis to calculate the associations between CE and outcomes of EVT. The magnitude of heterogeneity between estimates was quantified with the I2 statistic with 95% CIs.

RESULTS: Fifteen observational studies that enrolled 1897 patients were included. Patients with CE had higher risks of poor functional outcome at discharge (2.38, 95% CI 1.45 to 3.89 p=0.001; n=545) and poor functional outcome at 90 days (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.90; n=1194). We found no association between CE and in-hospital mortality (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.27 to 3.30; n=376) or 90-day mortality (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.81 to 2.36; n=697) after EVT. Moreover, CE was associated with higher risks of post-EVT intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) (OR 6.68, 95% CI 3.51 to 12.70; n=1721) and symptomatic ICH (OR 3.26, 95% CI 1.97 to 5.40; n=1092).

CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and meta-analysis indicates that in patients with AIS undergoing EVT, CE is associated with higher risks of unfavourable functional outcomes and ICH. Thus, we should pay more attention to CE in patients with AIS undergoing EVT.

PMID:34233968 | DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044917