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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Prognostic factor identified… Now what? What we can and cannot learn from prognostic factor research

Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 2022 Jun 22;166:D6758.

ABSTRACT

Although it is generally known that a (statistical) association between a factor, i.e., determinant or independent variable, and outcome, i.e., dependent variable, does not directly provide evidence of a causal relation, in practice the distinction between associative and causal relationships often becomes fuzzy when interpreting prognostic factor research. We provide suggestions for interpreting the findings of prognostic factor research. It is important to assess the purpose and design of the study, including the statistical analysis. The actual evidence that prognostic factor research can provide is easily overestimated. In particular when associations between factors and outcome are estimated in a multivariable analysis, causal or predictive qualities can easily but wrongfully be attributed to a prognostic factor. It is generally advisable to refrain from judgments on the causal of predictive qualities of a prognostic factor purely based on a prognostic factor study. Findings from prognostic factor research are usually a good starting point for follow-up research, while the direct applicability of such findings in daily medical practice is often limited.

PMID:35899712

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The First Tarsometatarsal Joint in Lisfranc Injuries

Foot Ankle Int. 2022 Jul 28:10711007221112090. doi: 10.1177/10711007221112090. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Lisfranc injuries are among the most debilitating injuries to the foot. Characterization of first tarsometatarsal (TMT) joint involvement in Lisfranc injuries is limited. Multiple studies have indicated that this joint is damaged in a variety of Lisfranc injury patterns, but there is sparse information regarding how often and in what form.

METHODS: A retrospective review was performed of operative Lisfranc fractures from 2010 to 2020 with patients identified by Combined Procedural Terminology codes. Hardcastle and Myerson Lisfranc injury classifications and computed tomography and radiograph characterizations of the first TMT joint were evaluated by 3 foot and ankle fellowship-trained orthopaedic surgeons. Radiographic characteristics were collected. Light’s kappa coefficient evaluated interrater reliability for injury classification. Injury mechanism and Lisfranc classification effects on the first TMT joint were further assessed using inferential statistics.

RESULTS: Of 71 patients with a Lisfranc injury of which 37 (52%) were high energy, 61 (86%) showed radiographic evidence of first TMT joint injury. A fragment was present in the TMT articular surface in 33 (47%) with median size = 8.7 mm and medial capsular avulsion in n = 25 (35%). Forty-eight patients (68%) had medial/lateral TMT joint incongruence ≥2 mm (median overhang = 4 mm), 21 (30%) had dorsal/plantar incongruence (median overhang = 6 mm). Angulation of TMT articular surfaces ≥5 degrees on the transverse/anteroposterior plane occurred in n = 32 (45%) and in n = 12 (17%) on the sagittal/lateral plane, which significantly differed between classifications (P = .020).

CONCLUSION: The overwhelming majority of Lisfranc midfoot injuries seen at our tertiary referral center had imaging evidence of damage to the first TMT joint (86%), and the incidence may be higher. The most common patterns of first TMT joint involvement we found were joint incongruity, articular surface fractures, angulation of the articular surfaces, and medial capsular ligament avulsion fractures. A better understanding of injuries to the first TMT joint can help orthopaedic surgeons with diagnosis.

PMID:35899684 | DOI:10.1177/10711007221112090

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Time from diagnosis to treatment is associated with survival in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia: An analysis of 55 985 patients from the National Cancer Database

Br J Haematol. 2022 Jul 28. doi: 10.1111/bjh.18381. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is conventionally thought of as a medical emergency. However, several studies on the association of time from diagnosis to treatment with survival did not have concordant results. Here we analyse 55 985 AML patients from the National Cancer Database, and we show that in patients less than 60 years old a five-day delay in chemotherapy initiation leads to worse long-term survival. The difference is small [hazard ratio (HR) 1.05, 95% condidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.09 in multivariate analysis] but statistically significant. This study raises the issue of power to detect small differences in retrospective studies.

PMID:35899627 | DOI:10.1111/bjh.18381

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Bayesian analysis for partly linear Cox model with measurement error and time-varying covariate effect

Stat Med. 2022 Jul 28. doi: 10.1002/sim.9531. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The Cox proportional hazards model is commonly used to estimate the association between time-to-event and covariates. Under the proportional hazards assumption, covariate effects are assumed to be constant in the follow-up period of study. When measurement error presents, common estimation methods that adjust for an error-contaminated covariate in the Cox proportional hazards model assume that the true function on the covariate is parametric and specified. We consider a semiparametric partly linear Cox model that allows the hazard to depend on an unspecified function of an error-contaminated covariate and an error-free covariate with time-varying effect, which simultaneously relaxes the assumption on the functional form of the error-contaminated covariate and allows for nonconstant effect of the error-free covariate. We take a Bayesian approach and approximate the unspecified function by a B-spline. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate that our proposed method has favorable statistical performance. The proposed method is also illustrated by an application to data from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group Protocol 175.

PMID:35899596 | DOI:10.1002/sim.9531

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Impact of Histologic Risk Factors on Recurrence Rates for Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Ann Otol Rhinol Laryngol. 2022 Jul 28:34894221111223. doi: 10.1177/00034894221111223. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study assesses the impact of adverse histologic risk factors including worst pattern of invasion (WPOI), predominant pattern of invasion (PPOI), tumor budding, and tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILS), on risk of recurrence in patients with early-stage Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma (OCSCC).

METHODS: Retrospective chart review was performed at a single institution to identify patients with OCSCC who underwent surgical excision. Inclusion criteria included T1-T2 stage disease based on AJCC seventh edition guidelines, no cervical lymph node involvement, no perineural invasion (PNI), no lymphovascular invasion (LVI), no post-operative adjuvant radiation therapy, and cancer involving only the oral tongue or floor of mouth. Patients were excluded if they had positive final margins. A subset of 35 patients were selected for additional histologic review to determine WPOI, PPOI, TB, and TILS. Bivariable and multivariable cox analysis were performed to determine variables associated with recurrence.

RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-one patients met criteria and were included in the analysis. Variables that were significantly associated with recurrence on bivariable analysis included tumors with high risk PPOI (groups 4 and 5; P = .021), TB with 10 or more buds (P = .021), T-stage (P = .001), neck dissection (P = .03), and depth of invasion (DOI) >4 mm (P = .044). Multivariable cox proportional hazards found T-stage (HR: 6.40; 95% CI 1.67, 24.50; P = .007), neck dissection (HR: 0.23; 95% CI 0.07, 0.82; P = .023), and TBs (HR: 1.17; 95% CI 1.05, 1.30; P = .006) to be most predictive of recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS: TB is a strong predictor of recurrence. WPOI, PPOI, and TILS were not statistically significant risk factors for recurrence.

PMID:35899590 | DOI:10.1177/00034894221111223

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Astrocyte immunometabolic regulation of the tumour microenvironment drives glioblastoma pathogenicity

Brain. 2022 Jul 28:awac222. doi: 10.1093/brain/awac222. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Malignant brain tumours are the cause of a disproportionate level of morbidity and mortality among cancer patients, an unfortunate statistic that has remained constant for decades. Despite considerable advances in the molecular characterization of these tumours, targeting the cancer cells has yet to produce significant advances in treatment. An alternative strategy is to target cells in the glioblastoma microenvironment, such as tumour-associated astrocytes. Astrocytes control multiple processes in health and disease, ranging from maintaining the brain’s metabolic homeostasis, to modulating neuroinflammation. However, their role in glioblastoma pathogenicity is not well understood. Here we report that depletion of reactive astrocytes regresses glioblastoma and prolongs mouse survival. Analysis of the tumour-associated astrocyte translatome revealed astrocytes initiate transcriptional programmes that shape the immune and metabolic compartments in the glioma microenvironment. Specifically, their expression of CCL2 and CSF1 governs the recruitment of tumour-associated macrophages and promotes a pro-tumourigenic macrophage phenotype. Concomitantly, we demonstrate that astrocyte-derived cholesterol is key to glioma cell survival, and that targeting astrocytic cholesterol efflux, via ABCA1, halts tumour progression. In summary, astrocytes control glioblastoma pathogenicity by reprogramming the immunological properties of the tumour microenvironment and supporting the non-oncogenic metabolic dependency of glioblastoma on cholesterol. These findings suggest that targeting astrocyte immunometabolic signalling may be useful in treating this uniformly lethal brain tumour.

PMID:35899587 | DOI:10.1093/brain/awac222

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains

Glob Chang Biol. 2022 Jul 28. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16355. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models (SDMs) to forecast future distributions. Under “space-for-time-substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time-substitution are the time period for species’ responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys and we modelled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatio-temporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species’ response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species’ responses to a changing climate have occurred. Whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.

PMID:35899584 | DOI:10.1111/gcb.16355

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Incidental pulmonary nodules in children: characteristic features and clinical course

Turk J Pediatr. 2022;64(3):466-473. doi: 10.24953/turkjped.2021.4858.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There exists insufficient information about the natural course of incidental pulmonary nodules (IPN) determined on tomography in children. The aim was to determine the characteristic features and factors affecting the course of IPN.

METHODS: This retrospective study included patients who presented at the Pediatric Pulmonology, Allergy & Immunology Section of Akdeniz University Hospital between January 2014-2020, and were determined with pulmonary nodules on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). The patients were separated into two groups as those with a nodule decreased in size or which had disappeared on the follow-up HRCT (Group 1) and those with a nodule which had remained at the same size (Group 2). These two groups were compared in respect to demographic data, nodule size and characteristics, and accompanying findings on HRCT.

RESULTS: A total of 177 nodules were determined in the 66 patients included in the study. A follow-up HRCT was taken within mean 16.29±11.38 months in 27 patients. In these patients, 78 nodules were determined on the initial HRCT. On the follow-up, twelve of the nodules were seen to have shrunk or disappeared compared to the initial images, 66 had remained the same size, and none had grown. The mean age of the patients in Group 1 was statistically significantly lower than that of patients in Group 2 (p < 0.001). The rates of an accompanying mosaic attenuation pattern (p < 0.001) on HRCT and subsolid density (p=0.011) of the nodules in Group 1 were statistically significantly higher compared to Group 2 and the rate of calcification content was statistically significantly lower (p=0.002). No suspicious or confirmed malignancy was observed in any case throughout the mean follow-up period of 38.33±16.5 months after the initial HRCT.

CONCLUSIONS: The young age of patients, subsolid structure of nodules, calcification content and the presence of an accompanying mosaic attenuation pattern on HRCT, could be useful factors in the estimation of size in the follow-up of nodules.

PMID:35899559 | DOI:10.24953/turkjped.2021.4858

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Evaluation of ketogenic diet therapy in children diagnosed with drug-resistant epilepsy: a single-center experience

Turk J Pediatr. 2022;64(3):435-445. doi: 10.24953/turkjped.2020.3091.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We evaluate here the effect of the ketogenic diet (KD) on children with drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) in terms of clinical effectiveness, anthropometric measurements, and some electroencephalogram (EEG) and biochemical findings.

METHODS: Included in the study were 18 children (median age 70 months, 61.1% female) who received the classical KD and modified Atkins diet (MAD) for at least one year due to DRE. The patients` demographic and laboratory data; weight, height and body mass index values; EEG and electrocardiographic findings; abdominal ultrasonography findings; and biochemical parameters were recorded at baseline and at 12 months after the initiation of the diet. A reduction of ≥50% in the number of seizures was accepted as a response to KD.

RESULTS: Classic KD was chosen for 14 patients (77.8%), and MAD for four patients (22.2%). The response to KD therapy (≥50% reduction) was 55.5% (n = 10) (p = 0.008), and one patient even became seizure-free. By the 12th month of treatment, 10 patients had experienced a reduction of more than 50% in epileptiform discharges, as indicated by EEG findings. There was no difference in seizure reduction between the patients who received classical KD and MAD. A total of 11.1% of the children lost weight during KD treatment. The most common side effect was constipation (n = 10, 55.6%). At the end of one year of treatment, total cholesterol and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) LDL-C levels had increased dramatically, while fasting blood glucose levels had decreased significantly.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that KD treatment provides good clinical efficacy in the treatment of pediatric DRE, and can significantly reduce the frequency of epileptic discharges. Also, total cholesterol and LDL-C levels increased significantly, and fasting blood glucose levels decreased significantly compared to the baseline levels.

PMID:35899556 | DOI:10.24953/turkjped.2020.3091

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Impact of loneliness on health-related factors in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic: A retrospective study

Health Soc Care Community. 2022 Jul 28. doi: 10.1111/hsc.13948. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 pandemic and its associated social and physical distancing restrictions may have had a severe impact on health. In the present study, we investigate the changes in physical, social and mental health, as well as the health literacy of Australians subsequent to the onset of COVID-19 pandemic, and examine the influence of loneliness on these health-related factors. Using a retrospective cross-sectional study design, 607 Australian adults completed a self-report online survey which assessed their health-related factors before and after onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (data collected between June 2020 to November 2020). Australians reported statistically significant increase in a number of (poorer) health-related factors (e.g., weight gain, sleeping difficulties, poor somatic health, higher loneliness, more issues navigating the healthcare system) post onset of COVID-19 pandemic. Further, after adjusting for covariates, higher loneliness during pandemic predicted poorer health-related outcomes (e.g., more somatic health complaints, poorer quality of diet, poorer social support for health). The COVID-19 pandemic and its associated social and physical distancing restrictions may have contributed towards poorer health-related factors among Australian adults. Further, increased loneliness during the pandemic may have further worsened physical health and health literacy outcomes among Australians.

PMID:35899552 | DOI:10.1111/hsc.13948