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Nevin Manimala Statistics

SARS-CoV-2 transmission in students of public schools of Catalonia (Spain) after a month of reopening

PLoS One. 2021 May 12;16(5):e0251593. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251593. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: SARS-CoV-2 transmission within schools and its contribution to community transmission are still a matter of debate.

METHODS: A retrospective cohort study in all public schools in Catalonia was conducted using publicly available data assessing the association between the number of reported SARS-CoV-2 cases among students and staff in weeks 1-2 (Sept 14-27th, 2020) of the academic year with school SARS-CoV-2 incidence among students in weeks 4-5. A multilevel Poisson regression model adjusted for the community incidence in the corresponding basic health area (BHA) and the type of school (primary or secondary), with random effects at the sanitary region and BHA levels, was performed.

RESULTS: A total of 2184 public schools opened on September 14th with 778,715 students. Multivariate analysis showed a significant association between the total number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in a centre in weeks 1-2 and the SARS-CoV-2 school incidence among students in weeks 4-5 (Risk Ratio (RR) 1.074, 95% CI 1.044-1.105, p-value <0.001). The adjusted BHA incidence in the first two weeks was associated with school incidence in weeks 4-5 (RR 1.002, 95% CI 1.002-1.003, p-value <0.001). Secondary schools showed an increased incidence in weeks 4 and 5 (RR primary vs secondary 1.709 95% CI 1.599-1.897, p-value <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: Safety measures adopted by schools were not enough to stop related-to-school transmission in students and could be improved. The safest way to keep schools open is to reduce community transmission down to a minimum.

PMID:33979410 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0251593

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Cerebrospinal fluid dynamics correlate with neurogenic claudication in lumbar spinal stenosis

PLoS One. 2021 May 12;16(5):e0250742. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250742. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Neurogenic claudication is a typical manifestation of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). However, its pathophysiology is still unclear. The severity of clinical symptoms has been shown not to correlate with the degree of structural stenosis. Altered cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) flow has been suggested as one of the causative factors of LSS. The objectives of this study were to compare CSF dynamics at the lumbosacral level between patients with LSS and healthy controls and to investigate whether CSF dynamics parameters explain symptom severity in LSS. Phase-contrast magnetic resonance imaging (PC-MRI) was conducted to measure CSF dynamics in 18 healthy controls and 9 patients with LSS. Cephalic peak, caudal peak, and peak-to-peak CSF velocities were evaluated at the lumbosacral level in the patients and controls. The power of CSF dynamics parameters to predict symptom severity was determined using a linear regression analysis adjusted for demographic and structural variables. Significantly attenuated CSF flow velocity was observed in the patients compared with the controls. The cephalic peak, caudal peak, and peak-to-peak velocities at the lumbar level were greater in the controls than in the patients (p<0.001). The predictive power increased most when the peak-to-peak velocity was added (adjusted R2 = 0.410) to the model with age, body mass index, and the minimum anterior-posterior diameter (adjusted R2 = 0.306), and the peak-to-peak velocity was the only statistically significant variable. CSF dynamics variables showed an association with the severity of LSS symptoms, independent of structural stenosis. PC-MRI can help to further our understanding of the pathophysiology of neurogenic claudication and support the diagnosis of LSS.

PMID:33979373 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0250742

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Neonatal and infant mortality associated with spina bifida: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PLoS One. 2021 May 12;16(5):e0250098. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250098. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: A systematic review was conducted in high-income country settings to analyse: (i) spina bifida neonatal and IMRs over time, and (ii) clinical and socio-demographic factors associated with mortality in the first year after birth in infants affected by spina bifida.

DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, Ovid, Web of Science, CINAHL, Scopus and the Cochrane Library were searched from 1st January, 1990 to 31st August, 2020 to review evidence.

STUDY SELECTION: Population-based studies that provided data for spina bifida infant mortality and case fatality according to clinical and socio-demographical characteristics were included. Studies were excluded if they were conducted solely in tertiary centres. Spina bifida occulta or syndromal spina bifida were excluded where possible.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Independent reviewers extracted data and assessed their quality using MOOSE guideline. Pooled mortality estimates were calculated using random-effects (+/- fixed effects) models meta-analyses. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using the Cochrane Q test and I2 statistics. Meta-regression was performed to examine the impact of year of birth cohort on spina bifida infant mortality.

RESULTS: Twenty studies met the full inclusion criteria with a total study population of over 30 million liveborn infants and approximately 12,000 spina bifida-affected infants. Significant declines in spina bifida associated infant and neonatal mortality rates (e.g. 4.76% decrease in IMR per 100, 000 live births per year) and case fatality (e.g. 2.70% decrease in infant case fatality per year) were consistently observed over time. Preterm birth (RR 4.45; 2.30-8.60) and low birthweight (RR 4.77; 2.67-8.55) are the strongest risk factors associated with increased spina bifida infant case fatality.

SIGNIFICANCE: Significant declines in spina bifida associated infant/neonatal mortality and case fatality were consistently observed, advances in treatment and mandatory folic acid food fortification both likely play an important role. Particular attention is warranted from clinicians caring for preterm and low birthweight babies affected by spina bifida.

PMID:33979363 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0250098

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Infertility management according to the Endometriosis Fertility Index in patients operated for endometriosis: What is the optimal time frame?

PLoS One. 2021 May 12;16(5):e0251372. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251372. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The Endometriosis Fertility Index (EFI) is a validated score for predicting the postoperative spontaneous pregnancy rate in patients undergoing endometriosis surgery. However, the practical use of the EFI to advise patients about postoperative fertility management is unclear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: All patients participating in the ENDOQUAL study-a prospective observational bi-center cohort study conducted between 01/2012 and 06/2018-who underwent surgery for infertility were asked to complete a questionnaire collecting time and mode of conception. Statistical analysis was performed with the Fine and Gray model of competing risks and analysis of fertility according to the EFI.

RESULTS: Of the 234 patients analyzed, 104 (44.4%) conceived postoperatively including 58 (55.8%) spontaneous pregnancies. An EFI of 0-4 for spontaneous pregnancies was associated with a lower cumulative pregnancy incidence compared to an EFI of 5-10 (52 versus 34 pregnancies respectively, Subdistribution Hazard Ratio (SHR) = 0.47; 95% CI [0.2; 1.1]; p = 0.08). An EFI of 0-4 was associated with a higher cumulative pregnancy rate for pregnancies obtained by artificial reproduction technology (ART), compared to an EFI of 5-10 (12 versus 6 pregnancies respectively, SHR = 1.9; CI95% [0.96; 3.8]; p = 0.06). Fecundability decreased from 12 months for EFI 0-4 and from 24 months for EFI 5-10.

CONCLUSION: Our analysis suggests that patients with an unfavorable EFI (≤4) have more ART pregnancies than patients with a favorable EFI (≥5) and should be referred for ART shortly after surgery. Patients with a favorable EFI may attempt spontaneous pregnancy for 24 months before referral.

PMID:33979371 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0251372

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Prevalence of colorectal cancer biomarkers and their impact on clinical outcomes in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

PLoS One. 2021 May 12;16(5):e0249590. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249590. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: KRAS, NRAS, and BRAF mutations are commonly present in colorectal cancer (CRC). We estimated the frequency of KRAS, NRAS, and BRAF mutations and assessed their impact on survival and other clinical variables among Saudi patients.

DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study design.

SETTINGS: Oncology department of a tertiary hospital in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. We gathered information from 2016 to 2018.

PARTICIPANTS: Cohort of 248 CRC patients to assess the demographic data, pathological tumour features, response to treatment modalities, disease progression, and metastasis.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS USED: Correlation analysis using the chi-square test. Survival analysis using a Kaplan Meier method. Cox regression analysis to calculate the hazard ratios.

RESULTS: Demographic data revealed that 84% of patients were diagnosed with CRC above the age of 50 years. Only 27% of patients presented with distant metastasis. KRAS mutations were the most prevalent (49.6%), followed by NRAS mutations (2%) and BRAF mutations (0.4%). Wild type tumours were found among 44.4% of patients. KRAS mutation showed no significant correlation with the site, type, pathological grade, and stage of the tumour. The mean survival time was shorter among patients with KRAS mutations than among patients with wild type KRAS tumours (54.46 vs. 58.02 months). Adjusted analysis showed that the survival time was significantly affected by patients’ age at diagnosis (P = 0.04). Male patients had an increased risk of mortality by 77% (hazard ratio: 1.77).

CONCLUSIONS: Saudi CRC patients had a high frequency of KRAS mutations and a low frequency of BRAF mutations. The KRAS mutation status did not affect the patients’ survival.

PMID:33979337 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0249590

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Media and social media attention to retracted articles according to Altmetric

PLoS One. 2021 May 12;16(5):e0248625. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248625. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

The number of retracted articles has grown fast. However, the extent to which researchers and the public are made adequately aware of these retractions and how the media and social media respond to them remains unknown. Here, we aimed to evaluate the media and social media attention received by retracted articles and assess also the attention they receive post-retraction versus pre-retraction. We downloaded all records of retracted literature maintained by the Retraction Watch Database and originally published between January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2015. For all 3,008 retracted articles with a separate DOI for the original and its retraction, we downloaded the respective Altmetric Attention Score (AAS) (from Altmetric) and citation count (from Crossref), for the original article and its retraction notice on June 6, 2018. We also compared the AAS of a random sample of 572 retracted full journal articles available on PubMed to that of unretracted full articles matched from the same issue and journal. 1,687 (56.1%) of retracted research articles received some amount of Altmetric attention, and 165 (5.5%) were even considered popular (AAS>20). 31 (1.0%) of 2,953 with a record on Crossref received >100 citations by June 6, 2018. Popular articles received substantially more attention than their retraction, even after adjusting for attention received post-retraction (Median difference, 29; 95% CI, 17-61). Unreliable results were the most frequent reason for retraction of popular articles (32; 19%), while fake peer review was the most common reason (421; 15%) for the retraction of other articles. In comparison to matched articles, retracted articles tended to receive more Altmetric attention (23/31 matched groups; P-value, 0.01), even after adjusting for attention received post-retraction. Our findings reveal that retracted articles may receive high attention from media and social media and that for popular articles, pre-retraction attention far outweighs post-retraction attention.

PMID:33979339 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0248625

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Affirmative action, critical mass, and a predictive model of undergraduate student body demographics

PLoS One. 2021 May 12;16(5):e0250266. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250266. eCollection 2021.

ABSTRACT

Black and Latinx students are underrepresented on most public university campuses. At the same time, affirmative action policies are controversial and legally fraught. The Supreme Court has ruled that affirmative action should help a minoritized group achieve a critical mass of representation. While the idea of critical mass is frequently invoked in law and in policy, the term remains ill-defined and hence difficult to operationalize. Motivated by these challenges, we build a mathematical model to forecast undergraduate student body racial/ethnic demographics on public university campuses. Our model takes the form of a Markov chain that tracks students through application, admission, matriculation, retention, and graduation. Using publicly available data, we calibrate our model for two different campuses within the University of California system, test it for accuracy, and make a 10-year prediction. We also propose a coarse definition of critical mass and use our model to assess progress towards it at the University of California-Berkeley. If no policy changes are made over the next decade, we predict that the Latinx population on campus will move towards critical mass but not achieve it, and that the Black student population will decrease, moving further below critical mass. Because affirmative action is banned in California and in nine other states, it is worthwhile to consider alternative policies for diversifying a campus, including targeted recruitment and retention efforts. Our modeling framework provides a setting in which to test the efficacy of affirmative action and of these alternative policies.

PMID:33979324 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0250266

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Individuals with autism spectrum disorder have altered visual encoding capacity

PLoS Biol. 2021 May 12;19(5):e3001215. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001215. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Perceptual anomalies in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have been attributed to an imbalance in weighting incoming sensory evidence with prior knowledge when interpreting sensory information. Here, we show that sensory encoding and how it adapts to changing stimulus statistics during feedback also characteristically differs between neurotypical and ASD groups. In a visual orientation estimation task, we extracted the accuracy of sensory encoding from psychophysical data by using an information theoretic measure. Initially, sensory representations in both groups reflected the statistics of visual orientations in natural scenes, but encoding capacity was overall lower in the ASD group. Exposure to an artificial (i.e., uniform) distribution of visual orientations coupled with performance feedback altered the sensory representations of the neurotypical group toward the novel experimental statistics, while also increasing their total encoding capacity. In contrast, neither total encoding capacity nor its allocation significantly changed in the ASD group. Across both groups, the degree of adaptation was correlated with participants’ initial encoding capacity. These findings highlight substantial deficits in sensory encoding-independent from and potentially in addition to deficits in decoding-in individuals with ASD.

PMID:33979326 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001215

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Adverse childhood experiences, adult depression, and suicidal ideation in rural Uganda: A cross-sectional, population-based study

PLoS Med. 2021 May 12;18(5):e1003642. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003642. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Depression is recognized globally as a leading cause of disability. Early-life adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been shown to have robust associations with poor mental health during adulthood. These effects may be cumulative, whereby a greater number of ACEs are progressively associated with worse outcomes. This study aimed to estimate the associations between ACEs and adult depression and suicidal ideation in a cross-sectional, population-based study of adults in Uganda.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between 2016 and 2018, research assistants visited the homes of 1,626 adult residents of Nyakabare Parish, a rural area in southwestern Uganda. ACEs were assessed using a modified version of the Adverse Childhood Experiences-International Questionnaire, and depression symptom severity and suicidal ideation were assessed using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist for Depression (HSCL-D). We applied a validated algorithm to determine major depressive disorder diagnoses. Overall, 1,458 participants (90%) had experienced at least one ACE, 159 participants (10%) met criteria for major depressive disorder, and 28 participants (1.7%) reported suicidal ideation. We fitted regression models to estimate the associations between cumulative number of ACEs and depression symptom severity (linear regression model) and major depressive disorder and suicidal ideation (Poisson regression models). In multivariable regression models adjusted for age, sex, primary school completion, marital status, self-reported HIV status, and household asset wealth, the cumulative number of ACEs was associated with greater depression symptom severity (b = 0.050; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.039-0.061, p < 0.001) and increased risk for major depressive disorder (adjusted relative risk [ARR] = 1.190; 95% CI, 1.109-1.276; p < 0.001) and suicidal ideation (ARR = 1.146; 95% CI, 1.001-1.311; p = 0.048). We assessed the robustness of our findings by probing for nonlinearities and conducting analyses stratified by age. The limitations of the study include the reliance on retrospective self-report as well as the focus on ACEs that occurred within the household.

CONCLUSIONS: In this whole-population, cross-sectional study of adults in rural Uganda, the cumulative number of ACEs had statistically significant associations with depression symptom severity, major depressive disorder, and suicidal ideation. These findings highlight the importance of developing and implementing policies and programs that safeguard children, promote mental health, and prevent trajectories toward psychosocial disability.

PMID:33979329 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003642

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Balanced networks under spike-time dependent plasticity

PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 May 12;17(5):e1008958. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008958. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The dynamics of local cortical networks are irregular, but correlated. Dynamic excitatory-inhibitory balance is a plausible mechanism that generates such irregular activity, but it remains unclear how balance is achieved and maintained in plastic neural networks. In particular, it is not fully understood how plasticity induced changes in the network affect balance, and in turn, how correlated, balanced activity impacts learning. How do the dynamics of balanced networks change under different plasticity rules? How does correlated spiking activity in recurrent networks change the evolution of weights, their eventual magnitude, and structure across the network? To address these questions, we develop a theory of spike-timing dependent plasticity in balanced networks. We show that balance can be attained and maintained under plasticity-induced weight changes. We find that correlations in the input mildly affect the evolution of synaptic weights. Under certain plasticity rules, we find an emergence of correlations between firing rates and synaptic weights. Under these rules, synaptic weights converge to a stable manifold in weight space with their final configuration dependent on the initial state of the network. Lastly, we show that our framework can also describe the dynamics of plastic balanced networks when subsets of neurons receive targeted optogenetic input.

PMID:33979336 | DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008958