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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Global Dynamics of a Reaction-Diffusion Model of Zika Virus Transmission with Seasonality

Bull Math Biol. 2021 Mar 20;83(5):43. doi: 10.1007/s11538-021-00879-3.

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose a periodic reaction-diffusion model of Zika virus with seasonal and spatial heterogeneous structure in host and vector population. We introduce the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] for this model and show that the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text], while the system admits a globally asymptotically stable positive periodic solution if [Formula: see text]. Numerically, we study the Zika transmission in Rio de Janeiro Municipality, Brazil, and investigate the effects of some model parameters on [Formula: see text]. We find that the neglect of seasonality underestimates the value of [Formula: see text] and the maximum carrying capacity affects the spread of Zika virus.

PMID:33743086 | DOI:10.1007/s11538-021-00879-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Prevalence and pubo-umbilical index of pyramidalis muscle in a select Kenyan population

Surg Radiol Anat. 2021 Mar 20. doi: 10.1007/s00276-021-02733-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Pyramidalis is a lower anterior abdominal wall muscle that is considered vestigial and shows variations in prevalence and size. It’s been utilized as an anatomical landmark and harvested for use in various surgical procedures. Despite knowledge of its clinical importance, data on the prevalence of pyramidalis remain absent from the Kenyan population with few studies globally reporting on its pubo-umbilical index. We therefore aimed to determine the prevalence and relative lengths (pubo-umbilical index) of pyramidalis muscle in a sample Kenyan population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty-two cadavers (41 males, 11 females) from the Department of Human Anatomy, University of Nairobi were used. Prevalence and length of the muscle (l) were established, and the distance between pubic symphysis and umbilicus (L) measured and used to calculate pubo-umbilical index (l/L ×100%). Independent and paired T tests were done, using SPSS® version 22. A p value of ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS: Pyramidalis was present in 84% (44) of cadavers; 83% (43) bilaterally, 2% (1) unilaterally, and 85.4% (35) in males, 81.8% (9) in females. Mean length in males and females was 71.8 ± 35 mm and 63.5 ± 37.5 mm, respectively. Mean pubo-umbilical index was 38% ± 18 (39 % ± 18 males, 35% ± 19 females). No statistically significant difference was found.

CONCLUSION: Pyramidalis is a highly prevalent muscle in the Kenyan population and, hence, could be exploited for its clinical and surgical utilities. The muscle terminates largely within the 2nd quarter (25-50%) of the infra-umbilical linea alba measured from pubic symphysis. Its pubo-umbilical index would be useful to surgeons making midline infra-umbilical incisions and performing procedures involving the muscle.

PMID:33743034 | DOI:10.1007/s00276-021-02733-6

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Patterns of suicide mortality in England and Wales before and after the suicide of the actor Robin Williams

Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 2021 Mar 20. doi: 10.1007/s00127-021-02059-z. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: There is international evidence supporting an association between sensational reporting of suicide and a subsequent increase in local suicide rates, particularly where reporting the death of a celebrity. We aimed to explore whether the observed increase in suicides in the United States, Canada and Australia in the 5 months following the 2014 suicide of the popular actor Robin Williams was also observed in England and Wales.

METHOD: We used interrupted time-series analysis and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages (SARIMA) model to estimate the expected number of suicides during the 5 months following Williams’ death using monthly suicide count data for England and Wales from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2013-2014.

RESULTS: Compared with the observed 2051 suicide deaths in all age groups from August to December 2014, we estimated that we would have expected 1949 suicides over the same period, representing no statistically significant excess.

CONCLUSIONS: This finding is an outlier among previous studies and contrasts with the approximately 10% increase in suicides found in similar analyses conducted in other high-income English-speaking countries with established media reporting guidelines.

PMID:33743027 | DOI:10.1007/s00127-021-02059-z

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The impact of vitamin D supplementation on vitamin D level, urinary calcium excretion and bone density in patients with hypercalciuria and vitamin D deficiency – Preliminary report

J Mother Child. 2021 Jan 29;22(2):144-152. doi: 10.34763/devperiodmed.20182202.144152.

ABSTRACT

AIM: To study the impact of vitamin D supplementation on vitamin D concentration in plasma, calcium urinary excretion and bone density in patients with urolithiasis in the course of idiopathic hypercalciuria and with a low vitamin D level.

MATERIALS AND METHOD: Prospective analysis concerning 28 patients (16 boys, 12 girls) aged 6-14 years (average 10.4) in terms of urinary calcium excretion (mg/kg/day and Ca/Creatinine ratio in morning urine sample), 25OHD blood level after 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of individually recommended doses of vitamin D supplementation (400 IU or 800 IU). The doses were determined on the basis of 25 (OH) D deficiency. The children were on a normocalcemic diet.The bone mineral density of the patients was assessed before and after 12 months of vitamin D use at the aforementioned doses.

RESULTS: There was no statistically significant correlation between 25 (OH) D plasma concentration and urinary calcium excretion measured on Ca /Creatinine ratio in daily urine collection and Ca/Creatinine ratio in the morning urine sample.No statistically significant change in calcium excretion was noted (measured by calciuria in daily urine collection and the calcium to creatinine ratio in the morning urine sample). A statistically significant increase in vitamin D plasma concentration was observed. Improvement in bone mineral density was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS: Supplementation of vitamin D in the children with idiopathic hypercalciuria and urolithiasis who were examined seems to be safe. The decision to start treatment and the selection of the vitamin D dose should be considered individually.Patients with urolithiasis should be carefully monitored for calcium/phosphate metabolism parameters and the activity of the disease.Supplementation of low doses vitamin D in the children examined did not improve bone mineral density.

PMID:33742960 | DOI:10.34763/devperiodmed.20182202.144152

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Fecal elastase-1 in healthy children up to 2 years of age: a cross-sectional study

J Mother Child. 2021 Jan 29;22(2):123-127. doi: 10.34763/devperiodmed.20182202.123127.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Fecal elastase-1 (E-1) levels in infants and young children may be expected to differ from those in adults and older children because of the immaturity of the gastrointestinal tract and the specificity of their diet. Despite the availability of data describing E-1 levels in the stools of preterm infants, older children, adults and subjects with malabsorption, there is still a lack of data regarding E-1 in healthy infants and toddlers.The aim of this cross-sectional study was to evaluate fecal E-1 concentrations in infants and children from 1 up to 24 months of age.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: E-1 was measured in 160 healthy subjects aged 1-24 months (8 groups of 20: aged 1-3, 4-6 months, etc.) using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).

RESULTS: Fecal E-1 concentrations ranged from 200 to 1695 μg/g of feces. No child had a fecal E-1 level below 200 μg/g of feces. Fecal E-1 concentrations did not significantly differ between age groups. However, fecal E-1 levels in the first 3 months were lower than in the second year of life (1-3 months vs 13-24 months, p=0.0230). A statistically significant correlation between the E-1 concentration and age was found (p=0.0007, r=0.2639; however, it does not affect the cut-off level of the reference values). The trend was rather exponential. Fecal E-1 values reached a plateau around the age of 6-10 months.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study has shown that the fecal E-1 test can be reliably applied in infants and toddlers to confirm normal exocrine pancreatic function. However, within the first months of life fecal E-1 concentrations may be lower than later in life.

PMID:33742967 | DOI:10.34763/devperiodmed.20182202.123127

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Partitioned glioma heritability shows subtype-specific enrichment in immune cells

Neuro Oncol. 2021 Mar 20:noab072. doi: 10.1093/neuonc/noab072. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies of adult glioma have identified genetic syndromes and 25 heritable risk loci that modify individual risk for glioma, as well increased risk in association with exposure to ionizing radiation and decreased risk in association with allergies. In this analysis we assess whether there is shared genome-wide genetic architecture between glioma and atopic/autoimmune diseases.

METHODS: Using summary statistics from a glioma genome-wide association studies (GWAS) meta-analysis, we identified significant enrichment for risk variants associated with gene expression changes in immune cell populations. We also estimated genetic correlations between glioma and autoimmune, atopic, and hematologic traits using LDscore regression, which leverages genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations and patterns of linkage disequilibrium.

RESULTS: Nominally significant negative correlations were observed for glioblastoma and primary biliary cirrhosis (rg=-0.26, p=0.0228), and for non-glioblastoma gliomas and celiac disease (rg=-0.32, p=0.0109). Our analyses implicate dendritic cells (GB pHM= 0.0306 and non-GB pHM=0.0186) in mediating both glioblastoma and non-glioblastoma genetic predisposition, with glioblastoma-specific associations identified in natural killer (NK) (pHM=0.0201) and stem cells (pHM=0.0265).

CONCLUSIONS: This analysis identifies putative new associations between glioma and autoimmune conditions with genomic architecture that is inversely correlated with that of glioma and that T cells, NK cells, and myeloid cells are involved in mediating glioma predisposition. This provides further evidence that increased activation of the acquired immune system may modify individual susceptibility to glioma.

PMID:33743008 | DOI:10.1093/neuonc/noab072

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Evaluation of Sensitivity in Specific Points of the Areola and Nipple of Patients Submitted to Reduction Mammoplasty With Periareolar Dermis Release: A Randomized Controlled Study

Aesthet Surg J. 2021 Mar 20:sjab143. doi: 10.1093/asj/sjab143. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To date studies on periareolar dermis release have recorded the areola sensitivity as a mean. Despite being clinically reported by patients, specific points in the areola may present sensitivity not detected by the researcher when it is analyzed through a mean value.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the pressure sensitivity at specific points of the areola-nipple complex and compare it with a mean value in the areola of patients undergoing reduction mammaplasty with periareolar dermis release.

METHODS: This is a prospective, randomized and controlled and trial of 39 consecutive patients (78 breasts) who underwent surgery for treatment of breast hypertrophy. The patients were operated on using the same surgical technique. In each patient, one breast belonged to a control group and the other to an experiment group. The periareolar dermis release was performed in the experiment group (39 breasts). Pressure sensitivity was tested with Semmes-Weinstein monofilaments on the papilla and at four specific points of the areola. The evaluations were conducted at preoperative, postoperative occasions of three and six weeks, and one year.

RESULTS: The group comparisons show statistically significant difference of sensitivity at the medial point of the areola and in the papilla at three weeks after operation. This difference disappeared in the one-year evaluation. This recovery profile also occurs when areola sensitivity corresponds to a mean value. The sensitivity significantly decreased at the lower point of the areola up to one year after operation in the control and experiment groups.

CONCLUSION: The periareolar dermis release did not compromise the pressure sensitivity at points evaluated in NAC. The areola sensitivity was different when corresponded to a mean value from that at the lower point.

PMID:33743009 | DOI:10.1093/asj/sjab143

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Analysis of Changes and Factors Influencing Air Pollutants in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2021 Mar 8;42(3):1205-1214. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202007249.

ABSTRACT

A series of strict control measures were imposed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in early 2020 to control the spread of COVID-19. These measures have led to a reduction of anthropogenic air pollutants, providing an opportunity to observe the contribution of human activities to local air pollution. In this study, the control period was divided into four stages:the before, early, middle, and later stages. Based on a variety of data including meteorological, traffic, and industrial manufacturing datasets, statistical methods were combined with spatial analysis to evaluate changes in air pollution and associated human impacts during each stage. In addition, suggestions are made for further regional air pollution control in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. Key results are as follows:① Overall, the AQI and the concentrations of six air pollutants, especially SO2, PM10, and NO2, were lower during control period than during the equivalent period in 2019 (reductions of 26.5%, 24.3%, and 16.9%, respectively). From the before to later stages, pollutants (except O3) showed a downward trend while O3 increased significantly during the before stage (by 76.2%) and the growth rate slowed during the middle and later stages; ②During the prior stage, Beijing experienced two periods with heavy air pollution days as a result of the local accumulation of pollutants, secondary transformation, and regional transport. The concentration of PM2.5 in February was nearly 60% lower than in February 2014 under similar meteorological conditions in Beijing; ③ Following an increase in traffic volume and industrial activity, changes in air pollutants tended to be stable or slightly increase during the middle and later stages of the control period. The grey relation coefficients between thermal radiation intensity anomalies and the main pollutants in heavy industrial cities were greater than 0.6, which means that the control of industrial emissions remains key to controlling air pollution.

PMID:33742918 | DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202007249

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Health Benefit Assessment of PM2.5 Pollution Control in Beijing

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2021 Mar 8;42(3):1255-1267. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202005225.

ABSTRACT

The assessment of residents’ health and economic benefits of PM2.5 pollution control is of great significance for the promotion of regional environmental air pollution monitoring, warning, and prevention. This paper utilized Poisson regression relative risk models and environmental value assessment methods to assess the health risks and economic benefits of PM2.5 pollution control in the 16 municipal districts of Beijing from 2016 to 2019 after reaching the secondary standard limit of 35 μg·m-3. The results showed that PM2.5 concentrations, various health effects, economic benefits, and per capita economic health benefits in all 16 districts showed a downward trend. Specifically, PM2.5 concentrations dropped from 73 μg·m-3 in 2016 to 42 μg·m-3 in 2019 at an average annual rate of 16.75%. The total number of healthy beneficiaries from PM2.5 pollution control dropped from 439985 cases in 2016 (95% confidence interval (CI):183987, 653476) to 77288 cases in 2019 (95% confidence interval (CI):30483, 120905) at an average annual rate of approximately 42.67%. The share of health economic benefits in GDP dropped from 3.16% (95% confidence interval (CI):1.10%, 4.73%) to 0.55% (95% confidence interval (CI):0.18%, 0.88%), and the per capita health economic benefit dropped from 3727.61 yuan (95% confidence interval (CI):1303.24, 5592.18) to 906.58 yuan (95% confidence interval (CI):295.14, 1438.27). Due to differences in PM2.5 concentrations, population number and density, and economic values of unit health endpoints, the results of the health economic benefit analysis, proportion of GDP, and per capita benefits varied between the 16 districts. Among these, Fengtai, Tongzhou, and Daxing show much higher values than others, indicating relatively high health and economic benefits from pollution control.

PMID:33742923 | DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202005225

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Gridded Emission Inventories of Major Criteria Air Pollutants and Source Contributions in Lan-Bai Metropolitan Area, Northwest China

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2021 Mar 8;42(3):1315-1327. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202007131.

ABSTRACT

Lan-Bai Metropolitan Area in Gansu province is an important heavy-industry base with the highest level of total air pollutant emissions in Northwest China. It is significant to study the high-resolution pollutant emission inventory to forecast regional air quality and to simulate pollutant emission reduction, as well as provide early warnings and forecasts, and to control air pollution. Taking Lanzhou and Baiyin as the main research areas, this study established the gridded emission inventories of seven major criteria air pollutants in the Lan-Bai Metropolitan Area based on emission data and statistical yearbooks of 2015-2016. The spatial pollution characteristics and emission source contributions were also studied. The results showed that the total annual emissions of seven major criteria air pollutants in the Lan-Bai Metropolitan Area were as followings:NOx 2.22×105 t, NH3 4.53×104t, VOCs 7.74×104t, CO 5.62×105 t, PM10 4.95×105 t, PM2.5 1.91×105 t, and SO2 1.37×105 t. Among them, annual CO emissions were the highest, while the annual emissions of NH3 were the lowest. The comparison of this gridded emission inventories with the Peking and Tsinghua University’s MEIC inventories, found that the consistency of the three inventories for traffic source was relatively high, but for the total emissions and industrial source emissions of CO, a 30%-40% difference was found when compared with emissions in the Peking and Tsinghua University’s inventories. The main differences were from the collected emission factors and the different resolution and years for collected data. The industrial non-combustion process sources, accounting for the largest proportion, were mainly concentrated in urban areas for the other six major criteria air pollutants except for NH3. The main contributing sources of NH3 were from the use of nitrogen fertilizers and livestock emissions, so its spatial pollution distribution was mainly affected by farmland distribution and other factors. It can be concluded that countermeasures, such as controlling industrial non-combustion process sources, integrating high-quality and high-efficiency power supply, using clean energy, strict dust emission control on construction sites and industrial production facilities, as well as urban greening could effectively reduce the emissions of six major criteria air pollutants including NOx, VOCs, CO, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2 in the Lan-Bai Metropolitan Area. The reduction of NH3 emission mainly depends on reducing the use of nitrogen fertilizer and controlling livestock emissions in the rural regions of Lan-Bai Metropolitan Area. This paper also used Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis to evaluate uncertainty in the gridded emission inventories, in which the maximum uncertainty was -31%-30% for NH3, the uncertainty of CO at -18%-16% was minimal. Therefore, the overall credibility was high for the established gridded emission inventories in this study.

PMID:33742928 | DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202007131