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Nevin Manimala Statistics

From demand forecasting to inventory ordering decisions for red blood cells through integrating machine learning, statistical modeling, and inventory optimization

Transfusion. 2021 Nov 16. doi: 10.1111/trf.16739. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The demand and supply of blood are highly variable over time. Blood inventory management that relies heavily on experience-based decisions may not be adaptive to real demand, leading to high operational costs, wastage, and shortages.

METHODS: We combined statistical modeling, machine learning, and optimization methods to develop a data-driven demand forecasting and inventory management strategy for red blood cells (RBCs). We then used the strategy to inform daily blood orders. A secondary semi-weekly (twice per week) ordering strategy was developed to handle the last-mile split delivery problem for blood suppliers, characterized by multi-deliveries to the same location multiple times during a short period of time. Both strategies were evaluated using the TRUST database including all patient data across four hospitals in Hamilton, Ontario.

RESULTS: We identified 227,944 RBC transfusions for 40,787 patients in Hamilton, Ontario from 2012 to 2018. The predicted daily demand from the hybrid demand forecasting model was not significantly different from the actual daily demand (paired t-test p-value = 0.163); however, the proposed daily ordering quantity from the model was significantly lower than the actual ordering quantity (p-value <0.001). The proposed daily ordering strategy reduced inventory levels by 38.4% without risk of shortages, leading to an overall cost reduction of 43.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 42.3%, 43.7%) compared with the actual cost. The semi-weekly ordering strategy reduced ordering frequency by 62.6% (95% CI: 61.5%, 63.7%).

CONCLUSION: The proposed data-driven ordering strategy combining demand forecasting and inventory optimization can achieve significant cost savings for healthcare systems and blood suppliers.

PMID:34784053 | DOI:10.1111/trf.16739

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Pectus cross bars increase hospital readmission rates due to serous pleural effusion

Gen Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2021 Nov 16. doi: 10.1007/s11748-021-01732-z. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Pectus Excavatum’s (PE) surgical treatment should be patient specific. In this article, we aimed to compare parallel and cross bar variations of the Nuss method and analyze if there is any difference in results.

METHODS: In this study, a total of 891 patients treated with the Nuss method between August 2005 and February 2018 were considered. These were retrieved from a prospectively recorded PE database. Of these, 276 double-bar patients were included in the study. Patients with parallel bars (225 cases) and patients with crossed bars (51 cases) were compared in terms of age, gender, symmetry, family history, additional anomalies, mean operation time, postoperative hospital stay (days) and hospital readmission rate.

RESULTS: The mean age was measured at 20.7 for parallel bar patients and 20.1 for crossed bars patients. There was no statistically significant difference in terms of age, gender, and mean operation time between two groups. On the other hand, statistical significance was found between two groups when analyzing the deformities’ symmetry, patients’ family history and additional anomalies. The statistically significant difference of postoperative hospital stay between two groups is clinically negligible. Postoperative hospital readmission rates due to serous pleural effusion were found to be significantly increased in patients with crossed bars (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: While pleural effusion requiring readmission was statistically more frequent in cross bars, in centers where thoracentesis can be managed, Nuss method can still be applied safely, even in cases with difficult, complex deformities.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III. Treatment study.

PMID:34784003 | DOI:10.1007/s11748-021-01732-z

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Does Gender Influence the Effectiveness and Safety of Insulin Glargine 300 U/ml in Patients with Uncontrolled Type 2 Diabetes? Results from the REALI European Pooled Analysis

Diabetes Ther. 2021 Nov 16. doi: 10.1007/s13300-021-01179-8. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Gender differences in risk factors and treatment outcomes for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) may exist. We used the REALI European database to investigate whether there were gender-specific differences in baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes among patients with inadequately controlled T2DM initiated on insulin glargine 300 U/ml (Gla-300).

METHODS: Data were pooled from 14 multicentre, prospective, interventional and non-interventional studies. Impact of gender on glycaemic control, insulin dose, body weight and hypoglycaemia was evaluated after 12 and 24 weeks of Gla-300 treatment.

RESULTS: Women (N = 3857) were older than men (N = 4376) (median age, 65.0 versus 63.0 years), with greater mean body mass index (32.5 versus 31.6 kg/m2) and lower median estimated glomerular filtration rate (77.5 versus 84.0 ml/min/1.73 m2). Peripheral arterial disease and a history of myocardial infarction were more frequent in men (20.1% versus 11.7% and 12.0% versus 5.8%, respectively). At baseline, mean haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) was 8.74% in men and 8.79% in women. Least square (LS) mean (95% CI) reduction in HbA1c from baseline to week 24 was – 1.17% (- 1.21 to – 1.13) in men and – 1.07% (- 1.11 to – 1.02) in women, resulting in a LS mean difference of – 0.10% (- 0.15 to – 0.05; p < 0.0001). At 24 weeks, 21.6% of women and 27.2% of men achieved target HbA1c of < 7.0% (p < 0.001; chi-square). Reported incidence for symptomatic (8.5% versus 8.7%) and severe (0.3% versus 0.5%) any-time-of-the-day or symptomatic (2.4% versus 1.8%) and severe (0.1% versus 0.2%) nocturnal hypoglycaemia was overall low and comparable between men and women. Changes in daily Gla-300 dose and body weight were also similar.

CONCLUSION: Despite some gender differences in baseline characteristics, Gla-300 treatment improved glycaemic control, with overall low hypoglycaemia incidences in both men and women. However, women had statistically significantly lower HbA1c reductions than men, although these differences were clinically modest.

PMID:34784005 | DOI:10.1007/s13300-021-01179-8

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Atypical manifestations of acute viral hepatitis A in children in Bangladesh: Are these really uncommon?

Indian J Gastroenterol. 2021 Nov 16. doi: 10.1007/s12664-021-01200-9. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND/AIM: The aim of this study was to find out the clinical spectrum of acute viral hepatitis A (AVH-A) infection in children, the relationship between atypical manifestations and laboratory findings and the outcome of patients with typical and atypical hepatitis A virus (HAV) manifestations.

METHODS: From January 2018 to September 2019, consecutive children (<18 years of age) with features suggestive of AVH with positive IgM anti-HAV both from inpatient and outpatient services were included in this study. Detailed history, physical findings, and investigations were recorded in the study questionnaire. Patients were followed up weekly until complete recovery. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 22 was used for statistical analysis.

RESULT: The mean age of 200 children who were finally included in the study was 8.3±3.5 years with male to female ratio of 134:66. Atypical features were present in 30 (15%) children; prolonged cholestasis (17, 8.5%), ascites (12, 6%), pleural effusion (4, 2%), thrombocytopenia (2, 1%), and hemolysis (1, 0.5%) were observed. Pruritus (p=0.005), higher serum total and direct bilirubin (p=0.00 and 0.001 respectively), and lower serum albumin (p=0.01) levels were statistically significant in children with atypical manifestations. Moreover, this group had prolonged mean duration of jaundice and hospital course (p=0.00 and 0.083 respectively).

CONCLUSION: Atypical manifestations such as prolonged cholestasis and ascites are not uncommon in children with AVH-A in developing countries and seen in almost one-sixth of patients.

PMID:34783989 | DOI:10.1007/s12664-021-01200-9

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Testing pigeon control efficiency by different methods in urban industrial areas, Hungary

Biol Futur. 2021 Nov 16. doi: 10.1007/s42977-021-00104-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The development of cities and urban sprawl has made room for wildlife inhabiting human environments. Among birds, feral pigeons (Columba livia domestica) are often present in large numbers in the cities. Problems related to pigeon occurrence result in economic loss and health issues for humans. There are different methods of controlling pigeon populations in urban areas. In this study, we compared three techniques that can be used for pigeon pest control. In two urban industrial sites in Hungary, we used trapping, falconry (in both Study Area 1 and 2) and mist-netting (only in Study Area 2) to remove pigeons. We compared the effectiveness and limitations of each method. Our results show that over 105 days in Study Area 1, we managed to remove 173 individual pigeons. We did not find a significant difference between the effectiveness of trapping or falconry. In Study Area 2, the overall number of pigeons removed was 1412 over a period of 150 days. There, we managed to catch significantly more birds by netting than by trapping or falconry, but the latter two did not differ statistically. We recommend a combination of techniques for pigeon control. Mist-netting can be the most effective way for direct pigeon removal, whereas trapping is an easier but less efficient method to catch pigeons. Falconry is the least efficient in pigeon catching and requires the most investments, but the bird of prey may chase the pigeons away for a short time.

PMID:34784001 | DOI:10.1007/s42977-021-00104-1

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Novel blood-based hypomethylation of SH3BP5 is associated with very early-stage lung adenocarcinoma

Genes Genomics. 2021 Nov 16. doi: 10.1007/s13258-021-01190-0. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Early detection is essential to improve the survival of lung cancer (LC). The quantitative measurement of specific DNA methylation changes in the peripheral blood could provide an efficient strategy for the detection of early cancer.

OBJECTIVE: We applied a candidate approach and assess the association between blood-based SH3BP5 methylation and the risk of lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) in a case-control cohort.

METHODS: The methylation level of four CpG sites in the promoter of SH3BP5 gene was quantitatively determined by mass spectrometry in 171 very early-stage LUAD patients (93.6% LUAD at stage I) and 190 age and gender-matched controls. The logistic regression and non-parametric tests were used for the statistical analyses.

RESULTS: We observed a significant association between decreased methylation of SH3BP5_CpG_4 in the peripheral blood and increased risk of LUAD (odds ratio (OR) per-10% methylation = 1.51, P = 0.006, FDR = 0.024), and even for the LUAD at stage I (OR per-10% methylation = 1.53, P = 0.006, FDR = 0.024). Moreover, the lower quartile of SH3BP5_CpG_4 methylation was correlated with increased risk for LUAD with a P trend of 0.011. Further investigation disclosed that the hypomethylation of SH3BP5_CpG_4 was mostly associated with LUAD in younger subjects (OR per-10% methylation = 2.02, P = 0.010, age < 55 years old) and probably could be enhanced by advance stage.

CONCLUSION: Our study revealed an association between blood-based SH3BP5 hypomethylation and very early-stage LUAD, which provides a novel support for the blood-based methylation signatures as a potential marker for the evaluation of cancer risk.

PMID:34783986 | DOI:10.1007/s13258-021-01190-0

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Patient-reported outcomes associated with transition to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

Qual Life Res. 2021 Nov 16. doi: 10.1007/s11136-021-03034-6. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To investigate patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) who transition to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS).

METHODS: Subjects enrolled in the Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigation of Multiple Sclerosis at Brigham and Women’s Hospital (CLIMB) who completed PRO measures in the RRMS and SPMS phases were identified (n = 52). The PRO measures were Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36), the Modified Fatigue Impact Scale (MFIS), and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CESD). Two control groups of RRMS CLIMB patients who did not progress to SPMS were identified based on different matching criteria related to age, sex, disease duration and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Summary statistics for each PRO were calculated at the last RRMS measurement and first SPMS measurement, and the change over this transition was calculated using a paired t-test. Patients who transitioned were compared to the control groups using linear regression to adjust for age, disease duration and EDSS and a mixed model to further account for the matching with a random effect for matched group.

RESULTS: Patients who transitioned from RRMS to SPMS had noticeable deficits in terms of Quality of Life (QOL) and fatigue at the visit prior to the transition. Patients worsened in terms of SF-36 Role Physical (- 3.6 [- 6.6, – 0.7]), Social Functioning (- 3.7 [- 6.4, – 1.0]), and Physical Component Summary (- 2.3 [- 4.5, – 0.1]) during the transition from RRMS to SPMS. When patients who transitioned were compared to the matched subjects, they had worse scores on several outcomes, including Physical Functioning (adjusted mean difference = – 10.8 [- 14.1, – 7.5]), Physical Component Summary (- 5.2 [- 9.3, – 1.0]), fatigue (8.9 [1.7, 16.1]), and depression (3.1 [0.3, 5.9]).

CONCLUSIONS: Patients in the period closely preceding transition from RRMS to SPMS have worse physical QOL and fatigue compared to subjects who remain RRMS.

PMID:34783972 | DOI:10.1007/s11136-021-03034-6

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Cancer-specific mortality after radical prostatectomy vs external beam radiotherapy in high-risk Hispanic/Latino prostate cancer patients

Int Urol Nephrol. 2021 Nov 16. doi: 10.1007/s11255-021-03055-7. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To test for differences in cancer-specific mortality (CSM) rates in Hispanic/Latino prostate cancer patients according to treatment type, radical prostatectomy (RP) vs external beam radiotherapy (EBRT).

METHODS: Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2010-2016), we identified 2290 NCCN (National Comprehensive Cancer Network) high-risk (HR) Hispanic/Latino prostate cancer patients. Of those, 893 (39.0%) were treated with RP vs 1397 (61.0%) with EBRT. First, cumulative incidence plots and competing risks regression models tested for CSM differences after adjustment for other cause mortality (OCM). Second, cumulative incidence plots and competing risks regression models were refitted after 1:1 propensity score matching (according to age, PSA, biopsy Gleason score, cT-stage, cN-stage).

RESULTS: In NCCN HR patients, 5-year CSM rates for RP vs EBRT were 2.4 vs 4.7%, yielding a multivariable hazard ratio of 0.37 (95% CI 0.19-0.73, p = 0.004) favoring RP. However, after propensity score matching, the hazard ratio of 0.54 was no longer statistically significant (95% CI 0.21-1.39, p = 0.2).

CONCLUSION: Without the use of strictest adjustment for population differences, NCCN high-risk Hispanic/Latino prostate cancer patients appear to benefit more of RP than EBRT. However, after strictest adjustment for baseline patient and tumor characteristics between RP and EBRT cohorts, the apparent CSM benefit of RP is no longer statistically significant. In consequence, in Hispanic/Latino NCCN high-risk patients, either treatment modality results in similar CSM outcome.

PMID:34783982 | DOI:10.1007/s11255-021-03055-7

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Gastric Wall Thickness and Linear Staple Height in Sleeve Gastrectomy in Japanese Patients with Obesity

Obes Surg. 2021 Nov 16. doi: 10.1007/s11695-021-05758-3. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) is a standard procedure due to its low complication rates and favorable outcomes. However, limited data are available regarding the optimal size of linear staplers in relation to gastric wall thickness (GWT).

METHODS: Between August 2016 and December 2020, we performed LSG in 70 patients with an average age, body weight, and body mass index of 42 years, 107 kg, and 40 kg/m2, respectively. We measured the GWT at the antrum, body, and fundus using resected specimens. We used an endo-linear stapler, and the closed staple height (CSH) was 1.75 mm.

RESULTS: We found that the average GWT at the antrum was significantly thicker than the GWT at the body and fundus. There was a statistically significant relationship between body weight and the GWT at the antrum and body and obstructive sleep apnea and the GWT at the body. The average CSH/GWT ratios were 0.55, 0.62, and 0.90 at the antrum, body, and fundus, respectively. However, in 20 patients (29%), the CSH/GWT ratio at the fundus area was ≥ 1.0, and only preoperative body weight was a significant predictor for a CSH/GWT ratio of ≥ 1.0.

CONCLUSION: A light body weight may be related to a CSH/GWT ratio of ≥ 1.0 at the fundus.

PMID:34783958 | DOI:10.1007/s11695-021-05758-3

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Spin in the Scientific Literature on Bariatric Endoscopy: a Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

Obes Surg. 2021 Nov 16. doi: 10.1007/s11695-021-05790-3. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Bariatric endoscopy (BE) is an emerging treatment option for people with obesity. Spin (i.e., the practice of frequent misrepresentation or overinterpretation of study findings) may lead to imbalanced and unjustified optimism in the interpretation of the results. The aim of this systematic review was to determine the frequency and type of spin in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of endoscopic primary weight loss techniques with statistically significant and nonsignificant primary outcomes. In conclusion, spin is observed in the abstract and main text of BE reports and can lead to misinterpretation or overinterpretation of the results. Since BE challenges the available non-endoscopic treatments for obesity, further research is needed to better qualify these techniques, as being effective and safe, as well as predefined hypotheses and analyses.

PMID:34783961 | DOI:10.1007/s11695-021-05790-3