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Nevin Manimala Statistics

A Predictive Model for Identifying Patients at Risk of Delayed Transfer of Care: A Retrospective, Cross-Sectional Study of Routinely Collected Data

Int J Qual Health Care. 2021 Sep 6:mzab130. doi: 10.1093/intqhc/mzab130. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Delays to the transfer of care from hospital to other settings represent a significant human and financial cost. This delay occurs when a patient is clinically ready to leave the inpatient setting but is unable to because other necessary care, support or accommodation is unavailable. The aim of this study was to interrogate administrative and clinical data routinely collected when a patient is admitted to hospital following attendance at the emergency department, to identify factors related to delayed transfer of care when the patient is discharged. We then used these factors to develop a predictive model for identifying patients at risk for delayed discharge of care.

METHODS: This is a single centre, retrospective, cross-sectional study of patients admitted to an English National Health Service university hospital following attendance at the emergency department between January 2018 and December 2020. Clinical information (e.g., NEWS scores), as well as administrative data that had significant associations with admissions that resulted in delayed transfers of care, were used to develop a predictive model using a mixed-effects logistic model. Detailed model diagnostics and statistical significance, including receiver operating characteristic analysis, were performed.

RESULTS: Three-year (2018-20) data were used; a total of 92,444 admissions (70%) were used for model development and 39,877 (30%) admissions for model validation. Age, gender, ethnicity, National Early Warning Score, Glasgow admission prediction score (GAPS), Index of Multiple Deprivation decile, arrival by ambulance and admission within the last year were found to have a statistically significant association with delayed transfers of care. The proposed eight-variable predictive model showed good discrimination with 79% sensitivity (95% confidence intervals: 79%, 81%), 69% specificity (95% CI: 68%, 69%) and 70% (95% confidence intervals: 69%, 70%) overall accuracy of identifying patients who experienced a delayed transfer of care.

CONCLUSION: Several demographic, socio-economic and clinical factors were found to be significantly associated with whether a patient experiences a delayed transfer of care or not following an admission via the emergency department. An eight-variable model has been proposed, which is capable of identifying patients who experience delayed transfers of care with 70% accuracy. The eight-variable predictive tool calculates the probability of a patient experiencing a delayed transfer accurately at the time of admission.

PMID:34487520 | DOI:10.1093/intqhc/mzab130

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

Immunohistochemical evidence implicating plasmacytoid dendric cells in the early stages of AA and its clinical impact

J Eur Acad Dermatol Venereol. 2021 Sep 6. doi: 10.1111/jdv.17643. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Alopecia areata (ΑΑ) is an inflammatory disease of the hair follicle unit characterised by non-scarring hair loss. The complex interplay and communication between cells of the immune system and the microenvironment around the hair follicle ensure a homeostasis which is compromised in AA.

PMID:34487410 | DOI:10.1111/jdv.17643

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The determining factors of qualitative training of students in public health and health care

Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med. 2021 Jul;29(4):977-983. doi: 10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-977-983.

ABSTRACT

The inclusion of public health and health care measures in labor functions of professional standards of medical specialists increased significance of mastering of these standards by students during specialty training, since on this depends their successful completion of primary accreditation of specialists and implementation of job descriptions in the course of daily activities. The purpose of the study was to analyze factors determining qualitative of mastering the discipline “Public health and Health Care” by students of medical educational organizations. The analytical, logical, statistical, questionnaire survey and direct ranking methods were applied. The sampling of 316 students of the Sechenov University was involved in survey using questionnaire of 17 closed questions. The study established that the determining factors effecting quality of mastering by students the discipline “Public health and Health Care” are the need to use by physicians this knowledge in the course of their daily activities; the need of students to pass profile exam; the determination of up to 40% of trainees to work as heads of structural units or professionals of health care and public health; the dedication of student; organization of educational process at the Chair; the professionalism of faculty; the application of active learning methods in classroom; organization of career guidance among students.

PMID:34486869 | DOI:10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-977-983

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The day hospitals as preventive hospitalization of patients of able-bodied age

Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med. 2021 Jul;29(4):957-962. doi: 10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-957-962.

ABSTRACT

In accordance with the Russian Federal Law No. 350 of January 2019 the retirement age for Russians is increased for men from 60 up to 65 years, for women from 55 up to 60 years that requires implementation of organizational technologies of health-preserving, promotion of life and labor potential of population of late able-bodied age. In this regard, the role of day hospitals (DH) functioning directed at maximal possible prolongation of autonomous life and working capacity of elderly population increases. Besides, DH also presents additional reserve of optimization of medical care costs. The purpose of the study is to elaborate guidelines of improving activities of DH for population of late able-bodied age, for the purpose of preventive hospitalization. The study was organized on the basis of pilot medical organization of the Moscow Oblast, consisted of hospital of 600 beds and day hospital of 120 beds. The methods applied included sociological survey, expert judgment, statistical direct observation. The primary data was obtained from the forms of federal and sectorial statistical monitoring for 2014-2018. The analysis of medical documentation concerning pilot medical organization functioning during the year of the study was applied. The sociological surveys of patients of late able-bodied age (5 years before retirement according to the new legislation – men 60-65 years old, women 55-60 years old) who received treatment in day hospital. The results. The analysis of main indices of round-the-clock functioning in-patient and day hospitals in the Russian Federation in 2014-2018 established trend towards improvement of using hospital beds due to development of day hospital. However, bed capacity of hospitals is used ineffectively and experts assume that more than 1/3 of patients could receive medical care or aftercare in day hospitals. The experimental study of planning hospitalization of patients with chronic diseases at out-patient level demonstrated that 11.5% of population of able-bodied age need planned and preventive hospitalization in day hospital. The cost of treatment of patient with chronic pathology is 2-3 times lower in day hospital than in common hospital at the stage of exacerbation. It is reliable to apply at the out-patient level experience of planning hospitalization of patients with chronic pathology in day hospitals followed by performance control. The organization of functioning of day hospital and common hospital requires particular enhancement, including issues of succession, financing of the DS, the remuneration of medical personnel through effective contract determining interest of physician in early discharge of patient to aftercare in day hospital. The day hospital functioning is to be implemented in 2-3 turns. The day hospital is to be located in detached placement and the departments of base medical institution are to used in fullness. The day hospital is be used more actively for purpose of health preservation of population of late able-bodied age who. This contingent suffers of chronic pathology and is in need of preventive and health-promoting therapy in conditions of day hospital.

PMID:34486865 | DOI:10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-957-962

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The methodology of calculation of indices of provision of population with beds of palliative medical care

Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med. 2021 Jul;29(4):963-965. doi: 10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-963-965.

ABSTRACT

The enhancement of organization of palliative medical care to increase life quality of terminally ill patients is one of directions of development of health care system. To elaborate measures of improving accessibility and quality of palliative medical care, it is necessary to apply single unified methodology of calculating indices and criteria. One of them is provision of bed capacity. The purpose of the study is to elaborate methodology of calculating control indices of provision population with beds to render palliative medical care. The indices are calculated on the basis of statistical processing of monitoring corresponding data in the subjects of the Russian Federation.

PMID:34486866 | DOI:10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-963-965

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The results of implementation of automated system of diagnosis encoding in multi-field hospital

Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med. 2021 Jul;29(4):971-976. doi: 10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-971-976.

ABSTRACT

The common coding of main diagnosis (so-called “manual coding”) is accompanied by quite many errors associated with inobservance of classification algorithm and subjective causes that in statistical morbidity and mortality data corruption. The article presents the results of implementing automated system of diagnosis coding by the ICD-10 in the departments of the Medicosanitary Unit of MVD of Russia in City of Moscow. The functional and time losses and the error rate were studied under manual coding and automated coding system. In case of common coding of complete clinical diagnosis of one discharged patient per day, it takes from 5 to 15 minutes, for coding diagnoses of all discharged patients – about 1 hour. The number of errors in common coding made up to 14.1% (n=2472) and in case of automated coding it made up to 1.5% (n= 63, p>0.05). The application of automated coding system in medical organizations ensures exact correspondence of clinical and statistical diagnosis, unifies wording of clinical diagnosis, minimizes subjective deviations from algorithm of the ICD-10.

PMID:34486868 | DOI:10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-971-976

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The measurement of degree of satisfaction of patients at evaluation of quality of applied services in hospital on the basis of SERVQUAL technique

Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med. 2021 Jul;29(4):904-908. doi: 10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-904-908.

ABSTRACT

This article discusses clauses of national standards compatible with international standards of ISO 9000-9001 family,in section of measurement of degree of satisfaction of patients with medical services quality. The main methods applied are sociological survey SERVQUAL focused on measurement of degree of satisfaction of patients, GAP-analysis (identification of discrepancies and gaps) and technique of management decision-making concerning improvement of medical services quality. The SERVQUAL survey with its five qualitative criteria was applied. The primary data was obtained from sampling of 500 well structured questionnaires. In total, 365 respondents participated in the study. The produced correlation matrix confirmed strong relations between criteria estimating expected and interpreted quality of medical services and full average interpreted quality. The analysis of reliability confirmed that questions of questionnaire are reliable and the results of statistical calculations can be used in further analysis. The analysis of descriptive statistics, correlation matrix, patient profile, reliability and qualitative GAP analysis were carried out. The requirements of assuring reliability and adequacy of questionnaire, representativeness of sample size to carry out high quality measurements were kept. The results on every criterion were obtained. The qualitative results of discrepancy of and perceptions of patients are received. The negative values of indices of discrepancy of the interpreted and expected outcomes of medical services are received. The level of satisfaction of patients remains insufficient. The study proposes to improve quality of medical services in hospital, especially by criterion “Materiality” to justify expectations of patients. The results of the study are of practical importance for executives of regional health care administrations, head physicians of medical organizations engaged in improvement of medical care quality and increasing of efficiency of medical services.

PMID:34486856 | DOI:10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-904-908

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The organization or personified treatment of diseases of coronary arteries considering analysis of bifurcation modifications

Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med. 2021 Jul;29(4):951-956. doi: 10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-951-956.

ABSTRACT

The characteristics of development of vascular lines are important for development and improvement of of surgical treatment, decreasing risk of complications and development of personalized approach to treatment of patients. The purpose of the study is to reveal prevalence of different variants of development of common carotid artery bifurcation and to assess their significance for clinical medicine. The sample included 70 volunteers of average age 43.4 ± 10.7 years. The 3D reconstructions of MRI data 1.5 T Brivo 355 were evaluated. The observation data was grouped and processed using software Microsoft Excel 2007 and IBM SPSS Statistics 20. To summarize the data, 5 main variants of location of great vessels were identified. The most rare types of development and course of carotid arteries in bifurcation area were variants “II” and “III” (8.2% of all observations). The most common development options were “I” (51.4%) and “IV” (31.4%). The variants “I” and “IV” were determined relatively evenly.The variants “II” and “III” were found on the right in 60% and 66.7% correspondingly and “V” option was found on the left in 61.5%. The typical options of location of carotid arteries near the bifurcation (variants “I” and “IV”), 82.8% in total. The cases of ventral position of external carotid artery (variants “II” and “V”) were established in 12.9%. The variant III was found in 4.3% of all cases. The distribution of vascular development options depending on the gender of patients was investigated. The study did not reveal significantly pronounced deviations in distribution of variants of vascular development, taking into account the age factor. The mentioned data permits to judge with confidence about necessity of developing personalized treatment of diseases of carotid arteries, considering their anatomical features of development in bifurcation area.

PMID:34486864 | DOI:10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-951-956

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The analysis of morbidity and mortality of population because of diseases of blood circulation system

Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med. 2021 Jul;29(4):865-870. doi: 10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-865-870.

ABSTRACT

The article presents results of comparative analysis of morbidity and mortality of diseases of circulatory system in the Republic of Buryatia in 2003-2018. The population mortality depends on identification of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, diseases of circulatory system and subsequent coverage of population with medical care, including dispensary monitoring. The analysis was based on data from State statistical reporting forms and official data of the Territorial Board of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Republic of Buryatia, including the form № 12 “The information on number of diseases registered in patients residing in area of medical organization servicing activity”; the form № 025-12/s “The Out-Patient Registration Card”; the form № 25-2/y “The Statistical Coupon for Final (updated) Diagnosis Registration”. The study was carried out using statistical, analytical and comparative analysis methods. Currently, in the Republic of Buryatia, diseases of circular system occupying second place in the structure of total morbidity (15.7%) and primary disability of adult population (28.6%) are among leading cause of total population mortality (41.6%).

PMID:34486850 | DOI:10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-865-870

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Nevin Manimala Statistics

The methodological approaches to classification of diseases of blood circulation system according to severity degree based on statistic data of population appealing for medical care

Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med. 2021 Jul;29(4):871-876. doi: 10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-871-876.

ABSTRACT

In The Russian Federation, increasing of life expectancy and decreasing of mortality related to diseases of circulatory system are the priorities of state policy. The purpose of study was to develop approaches to the classification of cardiovascular diseases by severity degree within the framework of development of general health management model based on health care activities at the regional level. The article describes methodology of calculating indices of cardiovascular diseases severity based on statistical data of appealability for out-patient, in-patient and emergency medical care. The set of balancing coefficients reflecting input of rate of accessing for various types of medical care, as well as aggravating input of concomitant pathology, based on expert evaluation of cardiologists involved is presented. On the basis of analysis of distribution of severity index in standard region of the Russian Federation, the system of criteria was developed to classify cardiovascular diseases (according to ICD-10 sub-classes) on four degrees of severity. The approbation of the proposed method demonstrated adequacy of the results obtained to judging of experts (cardiologists). So, in standard region of the Russian Federation, in the class of diseases of circulatory system (I00-I99), 79.6% of all cases are of first degree of severity, 8.6% of cases are of second degree of severity, 3.8% of cases are of third degree, and 8% of cases are of fourth degree. The methodology is unified and can be applied to classify entire spectrum of diseases by degree of severity. Besides, the proposed methodological approaches are suitable to be applied in population health management at the municipal, regional and national levels in the Russian Federation.

PMID:34486851 | DOI:10.32687/0869-866X-2021-29-4-871-876