Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Global burden trends and forecasts for MAFLD in adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2021

Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 19;15(1):13534. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-98489-9.

ABSTRACT

Metabolic-dysfunction associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a widespread chronic liver condition that has been steadily increasing among adolescents and young adults in recent years, posing a major global public health concern. This study aims to conduct an in-depth analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data on MAFLD, focusing on prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for individuals aged 15-39, spanning the period from 1990 to 2021. This research examines data from the GBD study covering 1990 to 2021 to assess the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs associated with of MAFLD in adolescents and young adults aged 15-39. The analysis is broken down by socioeconomic status, geographic regions, and specific countries. Advanced statistical methods, including the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling, were used to deliver the most current and thorough epidemiological assessment of MAFLD in this demographic. In 2021, the estimated global cases of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease among adolescents and young adults reached approximately 423 million, representing a 75.31% increase from 1990. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) was 14,221.32 cases per 100,000 population, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 977.61 cases per 100,000 population in 2021. Between 1990 and 2021, the ASPR, ASIR, age-standardized DALY rate, and age-standardized mortality rate showed a continuous upward trend, with EAPC of 0.84, 0.79, 0.65, and 0.81, respectively. Regions with Middle and Low-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), as well as High-middle SDI, emerged as “hotspots” for MAFLD prevalence, particularly in North Africa, the Middle East, East Asia, and South Asia. Males exhibited higher prevalence rates compared to females, and the rates continued to increase across all adolescents and young adult age groups. By 2050, the ASPR for MAFLD among this population is projected to reach 16,101 cases per 100,000, signaling an alarming trend. Over the last 30 years, the burden of metabolic-dysfunction associated fatty liver disease has significantly increased among adolescents and young adults worldwide. To counter this rising global health concern, it is crucial to develop and implement targeted and effective interventions tailored to socio-economic settings.

PMID:40253566 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-98489-9

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

The role of self-management in endometriosis pain: insights from a cross-sectional survey in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland

Arch Gynecol Obstet. 2025 Apr 19. doi: 10.1007/s00404-025-08019-1. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Endometriosis has a significant negative impact on women’s lives. Unfortunately, current medical treatments often fail to provide adequate pain relief and may cause intolerable side effects. Although many women experiencing primary dysmenorrhoea employ self-management strategies to help alleviate period-related symptoms, there is a paucity of knowledge about how women with endometriosis manage their symptoms through self-management.

METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey was distributed in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, between August and December 2022, targeting women aged 18 years or older with a diagnosis of endometriosis. The survey gathered information on (pharmacological and non-pharmacological) self-management strategies employed by the respondents in the previous six months, including their frequency, reasons for non-use, self-rated effectiveness, and impact on reducing endometriosis-related medication. Furthermore, the survey collected data on demographics, medical history, current symptomatology, and medication usage. Descriptive statistical analyses were conducted.

RESULTS: Of the 912 valid responses, 75.4% reported using self-management strategies, with the most prevalent being rest (91.6%), heat (91.1%), and exercise (63.3%). The most highly rated techniques in terms of effectiveness in pain reduction were cannabis, osteopathy, heat, and alcohol, with mean effectiveness ratings of 8.0, 7.3, 7.1, and 6.8, respectively, on the Numerical Rating Scale. Interventions, such as Tai Chi/Qi Gong, yoga/Pilates, herbal medicine, stretching, and meditation/breathing, were rated as being less effective. The lack of information and costs were identified as the primary reasons for not utilising self-management approaches.

CONCLUSION: The findings of this study may provide evidence for the reimbursement of self-management techniques by health insurance companies for the treatment of endometriosis-associated pain.

PMID:40253561 | DOI:10.1007/s00404-025-08019-1

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

A new auxiliary variables-based estimator for population distribution function under stratified random sampling and non-response

Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 19;15(1):13580. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-98246-y.

ABSTRACT

Population distribution function is a particular area in sample surveys, and several researchers have worked to improve the accuracy of this study by using the auxiliary data. Recent studies estimate the population distribution function by applying stratified random sampling and non-response techniques, but there are some limitations in using the auxiliary data. However, we improve this study, which aims to maximize the accuracy of estimating the population distribution function under the combined effect of stratified random sampling and non-response groups. To achieve this goal in the condition of both sampling techniques, we introduce the use of a study variable and two auxiliary variables (mean and ranks). We conduct various estimations for real-world populations for theoretical and numerical findings. The results obtained from these estimators consistently demonstrate the better performance of the proposed classes of estimators over the currently existing estimators. This work also finds a comprehensive simulation analysis to evaluate the performance of various estimators. These findings show that the effectiveness of the proposed estimator significantly improves estimation accuracy. For additional validation and understanding of the relative effectiveness of the proposed estimators, this study also provides comparative graphs showing their performance relative to other current estimators.

PMID:40253523 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-98246-y

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Development of an integrated reactor model package for optimizing the operating modes of the sulfur production unit

Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 19;15(1):13568. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-97870-y.

ABSTRACT

Complex technological systems in oil refining and other industries, consisting of numerous interconnected units, are often characterized by the uncertainty of initial information required for modeling and optimizing their operating modes. This study addresses the issue of uncertainty in the development of models for such technological systems with fuzzy input, operational, and output parameters, which remain relevant yet underexplored and unresolved. The paper proposes a concept for developing a model package of interconnected units for technologically fuzzy systems and describes the implementation algorithm of the proposed concept. Based on this algorithm, hybrid models of interconnected reactors in the sulfur production unit at the Atyrau refinery were developed, consisting of statistical, fuzzy, and linguistic models. These models allow the determination of the sulfur volumes produced in the reactors and their fuzzy quality indicators depending on the reactors’ operating modes. The developed models of interconnected reactors, including the Claus thermal reactor and Cold Bed Absorption, are combined into a single model package according to the sulfur production process and the technological scheme of the research object. The resulting model package enables systematic modeling of reactor systems and the selection of optimal operating modes. For this purpose, a software suite was created to simulate various operating modes of the reactor system on a computer to optimize their operation. The results of systematic modeling and optimization of the sulfur production unit demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach compared to known methods.

PMID:40253516 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-97870-y

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Utilizing artificial intelligence to predict and analyze socioeconomic, environmental, and healthcare factors driving tuberculosis globally

Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 19;15(1):13619. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-96973-w.

ABSTRACT

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major global health issue, contributing significantly to mortality and morbidity rates worldwide. Socioeconomic, environmental, and healthcare factors significantly impact TB trends. Therefore, we aimed to predict TB and identify the determinants of the disease using advanced artificial intelligence (AI). This study employed the advanced machine learning (ML) model, XGBoost (eXtreme gradient boosting), combined with XAI (eXplainable artificial intelligence) and spatial analysis to describe global TB incidence and mortality rates across 194 countries from 2000 to 2022. Spatial autocorrelation analysis utilizing Moran’s I revealed geographical clusters and significant determinants affecting TB incidence. Treatment success rates and MDR-TB treatment initiation were identified as pivotal determinants of TB incidence. The correlation study revealed a substantial positive relationship between TB incidence in HIV-positive patients and overall TB incidence (r = 0.83). Confirmed cases of MDR-TB had the most significant impact on TB incidence (SHAP = 0.874). Additionally, air pollution had a notable impact on TB incidence (SHAP = 1.36). The XGBoost model demonstrated the best predictive performance for TB incidence and mortality, exhibiting the lowest RMSE (0.88), the highest R2 (0.67), and Adjusted R2 (0.65). This study highlights the potential of integrating XGBoost and XAI methodologies as a holistic framework for effectively tackling global tuberculosis incidence and mortality rates, as well as for the proficient application of advanced analytical techniques in public health.

PMID:40253515 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-96973-w

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Automated assessment of simulated laparoscopic surgical skill performance using deep learning

Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 19;15(1):13591. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-96336-5.

ABSTRACT

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to improve healthcare and patient safety and is currently being adopted across various fields of medicine and healthcare. AI and in particular computer vision (CV) are well suited to the analysis of minimally invasive surgical simulation videos for training and performance improvement. CV techniques have rapidly improved in recent years from accurately recognizing objects, instruments, and gestures to phases of surgery and more recently to remembering past surgical steps. Lack of labeled data is a particular problem in surgery considering its complexity, as human annotation and manual assessment are both expensive in time and cost, and in most cases rely on direct intervention of clinical expertise. In this study, we introduce a newly collected simulated Laparoscopic Surgical Performance Dataset (LSPD) specifically designed to address these challenges. Unlike existing datasets that focus on instrument tracking or anatomical structure recognition, the LSPD is tailored for evaluating simulated laparoscopic surgical skill performance at various expertise levels. We provide detailed statistical analyses to identify and compare poorly performed and well-executed operations across different skill levels (novice, trainee, expert) for three specific skills: stack, bands, and tower. We employ a 3-dimensional convolutional neural network (3DCNN) with a weakly-supervised approach to classify the experience levels of surgeons. Our results show that the 3DCNN effectively distinguishes between novices, trainees, and experts, achieving an F1 score of 0.91 and an AUC of 0.92. This study highlights the value of the LSPD dataset and demonstrates the potential of leveraging 3DCNN-based and weakly-supervised approaches to automate the evaluation of surgical performance, reducing reliance on manual expert annotation and assessments. These advancements contribute to improving surgical training and performance analysis.

PMID:40253514 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-96336-5

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Extreme ambient temperature and emergency healthcare service utilization due to substance use disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 19;15(1):13582. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-98247-x.

ABSTRACT

To synthesize the association between extreme ambient temperatures and the utilization of emergency healthcare services for substance use disorder (SUD). We performed a systematic literature review of original research published between 2000 and 2023 using five databases (PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, WoS, and Scopus) for literature search, and assessed study quality and risk of bias. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the odds ratios (OR) for SUD-related emergency healthcare service utilization during periods of extremely high or low ambient temperatures. Of 709 articles screened, eight studies met the eligibility criteria. Six studies focused on emergency department (ED) visits, while two examined on-site emergency care utilization. The risk of SUD-related ED visits was significantly higher when the mean ambient temperature was in the top 5% of the temperature distribution range (pooled OR = 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07, 1.15). Conversely, the risk of SUD-related ED visits was lower when the mean temperature was in the bottom 5% of the distribution (pooled OR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89, 0.99). Our review showed the extremely high ambient temperature is associated with higher risk of SUD-related emergency healthcare service utilization. However, given the high heterogeneity observed across studies, these results should be interpreted with caution. Differences in study design, population characteristics, geographic region, and substance type may have contributed to this heterogeneity. Despite these differences, this finding highlights the importance of considering environmental factors in the management and prevention of SUD-related health issues.

PMID:40253512 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-98247-x

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Phylogeography of introgression: Spatial and temporal analyses identify two introgression events between brown and American black bears

Heredity (Edinb). 2025 Apr 19. doi: 10.1038/s41437-025-00762-0. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Brown bears (Ursus arctos) colonized North America from Eurasia in two distinct and temporally separated waves. Once in North America they encountered endemic American black bears (U. americanus) during range expansions from eastern Beringia southwards into the interior of the continent. The establishment of sympatry between these species provided the opportunity for hybridization and introgression, which was previously identified at the species level using D-statistics. Both species have broad spatial ranges that should limit the extent of introgression, such that it is found primarily between sympatric populations. Here, we used range-wide sampling and whole genome sequencing of both bear species to test for spatial variability in introgression. We identified two pulses of introgression between brown and American black bears, and demonstrate the introgressed segments occur across spatially structured lineages in both species. The first pulse occurred 270-120 kya, near the initiation of intraspecific divergence, approximately 99-93 kya, within each species. This pulse occurred as sympatry was established in western North America. The second pulse occurred between western American black bears and North American brown bears and lasted to 9 kya. Introgression was bidirectional and sympatric lineages had more introgressed tracts and a larger proportion of the genome introgressed from the other species. This study advances our phylogeographic understanding of both iconic bear species through investigating the timing of divergence and gene flow as bears expanded and contracted their ranges across North America.

PMID:40253500 | DOI:10.1038/s41437-025-00762-0

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Evaluating the impact of gut microbiota, circulating cytokines and plasma metabolites on febrile seizure risk in Mendelian randomization study

Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 19;15(1):13603. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-97759-w.

ABSTRACT

Febrile seizures (FS) is the most common type of convulsion in infants and preschool children. This study aimed to investigate the associations between gut microbiota abundance, plasma metabolites, circulating cytokines, and FS. Summary statistics of 211 gut microbiota traits, 1,400 plasma metabolite traits, 91 circulating cytokine traits, and FS were obtained from publicly available genome-wide association studies. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis and causality was inferred using Inverse variance-weighted (IVW), Weighted median, MR-Egger, simple mode-based estimate and weighted mode-based estimate 5 methods. Several sensitivity analyses were also used to ensure the robustness of the results. Furthermore, mediation analysis was used to determine the pathway from gut microbiota to FS mediated by plasma metabolites and circulating cytokines. MR revealed the associations of 1 gut microbiota (phylum Verrucomicrobia), 4 circulating cytokines and 50 plasma metabolites on FS. Based on the known pathogenic metabolites, we observed that the tryptophan, androgen, and sphingolipids pathways are associated with FS. Mediation analysis revealed 1 strongly documented plasma metabolite (Ascorbic acid 2-sulfate) as a mediator linking “gut microbiota to plasma metabolite to FS”. Sensitivity analysis was represented no heterogeneity or pleiotropy in this study.Our study provides some causal evidence concerning the effects of the gut microbiota, circulating cytokines, and plasma metabolites on FS, which needs to be verified in randomized controlled trials. These biomarkers provide new insights into the underlying mechanisms of FS and contribute to its prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

PMID:40253491 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-97759-w

Categories
Nevin Manimala Statistics

Information technology assists in the innovative development of throwing embroidered balls

Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 19;15(1):13550. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-96872-0.

ABSTRACT

This study aims to understand the historical and development of throwing embroidered balls, combine information processing and drone technology to innovate throwing techniques, improve the competitive level and competition rules, promote the high-pole throwing embroidered balls to the international sports. Utilizing literature review method to clarify the evolution history of throwing embroidered balls; using mathematical statistics to analyze the results of competition during the 12th and 13th Guangxi Student Games; Using mechanics analysis and animation production methods innovate throwing techniques. The imperfect competition rules, inconsistent specifications of embroidered balls, and outdated throwing techniques have hindered the healthy development of throwing embroidery ball. The optimal throwing angle range for innovative throwing techniques is between 64° < α < 72°, with the range of throwing speed being between 13.04 m/s < v < 13.70 m/s. When α < 66°, v≈13.70m/s, the ball passes through the lower edge of the top of the circle; When α > 64°, v≈13.04m/s, when α < 72°, v≈13.17m/s, the ball passes through the upper edge of the bottom of the circle. Drone aerial photography technology can assist judges; using animation production techniques to form throwing motion models to guide training can improve competitive skills. Improving competition rules, unifying the use of competition balls, and strengthening the integration of information technology with ethnic sports can effectively enhance the development level of the sport of throwing embroidered balls.

PMID:40253481 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-96872-0